CFL early pick: week 6

[everyman]

Clicked on the early pick last week with <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Edmonton</st1lace></st1:City>.
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Someone sent me a note as to what I look at when making these early picks. For those interested, this is what my process is:
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I look at the next week match-ups prior to their last games as I do not want to be overly influenced by the last game. I pick my projected outright winners in those games or put a ? mark beside toss-ups.
I watch the games.
I take my match-ups and see if my initial thoughts hold after the games.
I make my line as to what I think the books should use.
When the lines come out I look and see if any of my projected outright winners are dogs. If so then they are an early pick for sure. I almost always bet these ML as well but do not post that as there are obvious risks there. If any of my toss-ups are dogs by more than my perceived lines then they could be an early pick. If any of my projected winners are favored and present with a favorable line by 2 or more then those are in the mix as well.
Generally this is all done by Sunday night prior to the Monday lines. This forms the underpinnings of all my picks for the week as well.
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This week’s early pick:
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<st1:City w:st="on">Winnipeg</st1:City> @ <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Calgary:</st1lace></st1:City> This fits two profiles I like. One is an underdog by double digits after winning outright on the road vs a heavy home favorite after losing outright last game as a strong favorite. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Winnipeg</st1lace></st1:City> scares the beejusus out of me with Bishop but I do love their defense. <st1:City w:st="on">Calgary</st1:City> has lost Rambo which hurts and has <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Edmonton</st1lace></st1:City> on deck. I have the line at 8 so the overlay has me on <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Winnipeg</st1lace></st1:City> +14

 

[YourAllAmerican]

That Winnipeg/Calgary game is a tough one. I'm more hesitant to bet on a new quarterback in his second start than his first, but that line is awfully large, especially when, as you mentioned, the Winnipeg defense isn't bad at all.

I may try and talk myself into staying away from this one. Either that or look pretty seriously at the 1H Under.

 

[PassTheBuck]

I don't know if I'd give the Winnipeg defence that much credit. Toronto is one of the worst passing teams in the league, but they were able to put up 401 yards of combined passing-rushing against Winnipeg. I mean, let's not kid ourselves here, if not for all 7 turnovers they don't win that game. They needed each and every one of those, and while they deserve credit for half of them, they are still a team in shambles. I wish the spread was around 10, but Bishop's still a wild card and two touchdowns is a ton when they already found a way to beat the Stamps once.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

It wasn't just against Toronto that the Winny defense looked pretty good, though. They've been better than average all season so far. They're second in both points allowed/game and yards/play, and right in the middle of the pack for total yards. Couple that with an crap-ass offense that keeps the defense on the field too much, and the Bombers don't look bad at all on the defensive side of the ball.

 

[PassTheBuck]

Statistically they are average in most categories. However, that is a bit misleading, as they were one of the worst teams against the pass through their first 3 games. A couple of games against Toronto's less than average passing offence will help that.

 

[everyman]

For sure Winnipeg is a team that makes us nervous to bet on. Certainly not here to try and convince folks, just sharing a pick and strategy. Seems like there are only a few teams not in a shamboliic state so far. I'm not convinced that Calgary isn't on that edge as well actually.
The lines are sharp this week, except for this one IMO. But again these two teams fit a systems profile I have used for awhile...Winnipeg fits the bet on profile while Calgary fits the bet against. So I'm not really debating relative merits here...just the profiles and a line value which prompts the pick. It's funny, when I had looked at the game before Calgary lost to Sask I liked Winnipeg more. With Edmonton on deck, if they had taken care of the Riders last week, this could have been one of those classic look ahead games. Probably not so much now.
Thanks All American and PTB for the feedback. Appreciate it.

 

[degengambler]

The way the cfl is playing out, pick out the better team
with a fair line, and fuck it--go the other way..........

 

[everyman]

Degen...first of all....I've probably read every book that has been written by your guy in your picture. Love Parker.
I think the CFL is a little less predictable for many in that 7 of the 8 teams have head coaches with less than two years experience as head guys in the league. Also there has been a shift in the stability of quarterbacking and the salary cap has caused more player transition, veterans getting cut and changes of leadership (see BC) So now the league has more parity and the books haven't caught up to that. So if one believes automatically that the favored team means better team then they are in gambling hell. I do believe that we'll see a correction in the lines ...sharper with more lines in the toss-up range except in the case of the one solid squad in Montreal.

 

[degengambler]

Everyman-
his books are so entertaining, the only problem
is they read too fast-haha.

I am not a cfl affectionado, but when dogs of 10-14 points
win outright-wow!! Very unusual. Also, and here i go ass
licking again, but when king loses like 200 units in a short
time, and he has been following cfl forever, apparently
handicapping is difficult. I mean the oddsmakers who get paid
good money by the big books to come up with a line that
makes sense, are way way off; it tells us something. There
is so much inconsistency week to week--like dating a different
woman every week--you never know what you're getting
anyway if you're in the game--best wishes and win!!!!!

 

[everyman]

sorta new around here and never really followed this fella King, although I read some threads and gulped at his stated betting amounts. But as a long time player I'd sure question some basic money management stuff for ANYONE to lose 200 units in 5 weeks. Unless your bankroll is about 4000 units. But I'm not casting aspersions here. Just a ton to lose for a veteran guy unless as I say he has a huge bankroll. But that's too bad for him for sure and perhaps for blind followers if that was the case. But if he was betting that much, and he's been around for awhile then i have to assume he was managing his roll wisely and 200 units in 5 weeks is no big deal to him at least.
ya...Parkers books are a quick read...great writer of dialogue he is.

 

[PassTheBuck]

Everyman-
his books are so entertaining, the only problem
is they read too fast-haha.

I am not a cfl affectionado, but when dogs of 10-14 points
win outright-wow!! Very unusual. Also, and here i go ass
licking again, but when king loses like 200 units in a short
time, and he has been following cfl forever, apparently
handicapping is difficult. I mean the oddsmakers who get paid
good money by the big books to come up with a line that
makes sense, are way way off; it tells us something. There
is so much inconsistency week to week--like dating a different
woman every week--you never know what you're getting
anyway if you're in the game--best wishes and win!!!!!

The only thing I can say in defence of the people who have been on the wrong side of things is that you can point to at least 3-4 games where the outcome has been a fluke. I'm not talking one bad INT here or there, but several crazy players all going towards one team. A good example is the Toronto/Winnipeg game last week, and to a lesser degree the Saskatchewan/Calgary game.

I know it doesn't sound good to use the word fluke when we are betting on the performance of athletes, and it may sound like crying... but I really think that's the case.

Things will pick up in the CFL, and in the end I think the solid cappers will end up on top.

 

[Dr.T]

Nice winner! I always look forward to your CFL picks!

 

[everyman]

Thanks Dr. T. I appreciate the feedback.
I'm heading out east for awhile...won't be logging in but good luck to all in the CFL and the CFL forum.