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CFB Formula
- Thread starter asufan550
- Start date
Saturday:
3 Units:
Eastern Michigan +2.5 (-14.5)
Kent State -3.5 (-18)
Louisiana Tech -30.5 (-54)
Oregon State -9.5 (-24.5)
Fresno State -16 (-36)
2 Units:
Northwestern +6.5 (-9.5)
Ohio State -18.5 (-34)
Vanderbilt -6.5 (-22)
Louisville -5.5 (-15.5)
Arizona -7.5 (-24.5)
1 Unit:
Northern Illinois -17 (-27.5)
Clemson -8 (-19)
Notre Dame -13 (-26)
Alabama -20 (-30.5)
Tulsa -21 (-33)
.5 Unit:
LSU/TAMU U52.5 (34.5)
Wake Forest/Virginia U52 (36.5)
Colorado/USC O57.5 (72)
Kansas/Oklahoma O57.5 (73)
3 Units:
Eastern Michigan +2.5 (-14.5)
Kent State -3.5 (-18)
Louisiana Tech -30.5 (-54)
Oregon State -9.5 (-24.5)
Fresno State -16 (-36)
2 Units:
Northwestern +6.5 (-9.5)
Ohio State -18.5 (-34)
Vanderbilt -6.5 (-22)
Louisville -5.5 (-15.5)
Arizona -7.5 (-24.5)
1 Unit:
Northern Illinois -17 (-27.5)
Clemson -8 (-19)
Notre Dame -13 (-26)
Alabama -20 (-30.5)
Tulsa -21 (-33)
.5 Unit:
LSU/TAMU U52.5 (34.5)
Wake Forest/Virginia U52 (36.5)
Colorado/USC O57.5 (72)
Kansas/Oklahoma O57.5 (73)
ASUFAN....Great turn around! Best of luck on the coming weeks! I will be checking in as a good reference! Thanks for your work! @)
I appreciate it. I think the issue initially was impatience more than anything else. I couldn't wait to get started and that ended up costing me in the first few weeks. Probably should have waited until week 6 at least. If I had, my ROI would be at 18% instead of 7%.
Way to keep at it.
Best thing to do is use this kind of analysis after a team has played a minimum of 4 LINED games. I think you knew that already, but were anxious to test this out. That's fine, as your # of plays and confidence level is rising as the stats pour in.
For weeks 1-4, no magical science. Factorss to consider are new coaches, coordinators, starters returning, esp. along OL, and charting games 1-2 for anything out of the ordinary.
Good luck the rest of the way!
Best thing to do is use this kind of analysis after a team has played a minimum of 4 LINED games. I think you knew that already, but were anxious to test this out. That's fine, as your # of plays and confidence level is rising as the stats pour in.
For weeks 1-4, no magical science. Factorss to consider are new coaches, coordinators, starters returning, esp. along OL, and charting games 1-2 for anything out of the ordinary.
Good luck the rest of the way!
Saturday:
4 Units:
North Carolina -7.5 (-34)
UCF -2 (-22)
Oregon State -3 (-24)
3 Units:
Northern Illinois -7.5 (-26)
Indiana +2 (-14)
Mississippi +6 (-12)
Troy -7.5 (-20)
2 Units:
South Carolina -13.5 (-25)
Georgia Tech -2.5 (-21.5)
Arizona State -6.5 (-22.5)
Toledo -7.5 (-24.5)
Western Kentucky -7 (-19.5)
San Diego State -18.5 (-36.5)
1 Unit:
Rice -2.5 (-10.5)
Boise State -16 (-27.5)
Texas A&M -14.5 (-23.5)
Cal +1 (-5)
.5 Unit:
Hawaii/Colorado State U52 (33.5)
UCF/Marshall U68 (47)
4 Units:
North Carolina -7.5 (-34)
UCF -2 (-22)
Oregon State -3 (-24)
3 Units:
Northern Illinois -7.5 (-26)
Indiana +2 (-14)
Mississippi +6 (-12)
Troy -7.5 (-20)
2 Units:
South Carolina -13.5 (-25)
Georgia Tech -2.5 (-21.5)
Arizona State -6.5 (-22.5)
Toledo -7.5 (-24.5)
Western Kentucky -7 (-19.5)
San Diego State -18.5 (-36.5)
1 Unit:
Rice -2.5 (-10.5)
Boise State -16 (-27.5)
Texas A&M -14.5 (-23.5)
Cal +1 (-5)
.5 Unit:
Hawaii/Colorado State U52 (33.5)
UCF/Marshall U68 (47)
Last week:
9-11, -2.2
YTD:
66-64-1, +14.05
First losing week in a while. Good news is that the three and four unit plays were a combined 5-3, +6 units. The bad news is that the two unit plays were 1-5, -9.
Update through week 9:
Over/Under: 10-13, -6.85
1 Unit (excluding over/under plays): 16-18, -3.8
2 Unit: 14-21-1, -18.2
3 Unit: 17-7, +27.9
4 Unit: 8-5, +10
5 Unit: 1-0, +5
Looks like I should stop with the one and two unit plays. I'll be more careful with them going forward.
9-11, -2.2
YTD:
66-64-1, +14.05
First losing week in a while. Good news is that the three and four unit plays were a combined 5-3, +6 units. The bad news is that the two unit plays were 1-5, -9.
Update through week 9:
Over/Under: 10-13, -6.85
1 Unit (excluding over/under plays): 16-18, -3.8
2 Unit: 14-21-1, -18.2
3 Unit: 17-7, +27.9
4 Unit: 8-5, +10
5 Unit: 1-0, +5
Looks like I should stop with the one and two unit plays. I'll be more careful with them going forward.
Saturday:
4 Units:
Cincinnati -4.5 (-29.5)
Kansas State -9 (-28.5)
3 Units:
Mississippi State +7 (-15)
North Carolina State -10.5 (-35)
Penn State -3.5 (-25)
2 Units:
Kent State -20.5 (-42)
Boise State -15 (-31.5)
1 Unit:
Louisville -16 (-25)
Minnesota +11 (-3)
New Mexico State +22.5 (0)
UAB +3 (-8)
.5 Units:
Memphis/Marshall U66 (46.5)
Texas State/Utah State O52 (65)
Illinois/Ohio State O51.5 (73)
Kansas/Baylor O71 (87.5)
UAB/Southern Mississippi U63 (48.5)
Arizona State/Oregon State U55.5 (26.5)
4 Units:
Cincinnati -4.5 (-29.5)
Kansas State -9 (-28.5)
3 Units:
Mississippi State +7 (-15)
North Carolina State -10.5 (-35)
Penn State -3.5 (-25)
2 Units:
Kent State -20.5 (-42)
Boise State -15 (-31.5)
1 Unit:
Louisville -16 (-25)
Minnesota +11 (-3)
New Mexico State +22.5 (0)
UAB +3 (-8)
.5 Units:
Memphis/Marshall U66 (46.5)
Texas State/Utah State O52 (65)
Illinois/Ohio State O51.5 (73)
Kansas/Baylor O71 (87.5)
UAB/Southern Mississippi U63 (48.5)
Arizona State/Oregon State U55.5 (26.5)
