Celts 1st half total 89.......how often does the TOTAL land on this number???

[Fishhead]

????

 

[barman]

How in the world would anyone answer that question?

I'm sure 89 is not an unusual first half finish, but at over 1300 NBA games per year, how often it lands exactly on that number is a mystery


Unless you'd like to lob me a few grand to build a database of Quarter and Halftime numbers for the past five years......

 

[Fishhead]

How in the world would anyone answer that question?

I'm sure 89 is not an unusual first half finish, but at over 1300 NBA games per year, how often it lands exactly on that number is a mystery


Unless you'd like to lob me a few grand to build a database of Quarter and Halftime numbers for the past five years......

Hi Barman

Good luck with your Rays, they still can do it.

On the total, one can most certainly estimate a percentage of times that this game will land on this number(an estimate that is very, very close)........just like any number in most any sport. This is how scalpers/middlers grind out profits over the longhaul........by beating the percentages.

 

[whalewager]

well estimate it then...werent u in the business at one time

 

[whalewager]

1.1% btw

 

[Doug]

I'd guess 5%+.

 

[Fishhead]

1.1% btw

Re-think your position.

 

[whalewager]

I didnt put much thought into it. Thought I would throw out a number and watch the math wizzes go at it.

 

[JohnnyB]

I'd guess 5%+.

I would say about the same.

 

[whalewager]

I would say u cocks are wrong

 

[mj23]

Last night they had a line would total points land on 45 and with a minute to go thats where it stood ?? :shocked:

 

[Iceman]

You would be amazed (not you Fish) but most others.

enough that it is one of the most profitable middles to play (nba 1st half or 2nd half totals). I had a great one with the Bulls tonite but it didnt hit.

 

[JohnnyB]

You would be amazed (not you Fish) but most others.

enough that it is one of the most profitable middles to play (nba 1st half or 2nd half totals). I had a great one with the Bulls tonite but it didnt hit.

Even at full juice on both sides?

Like
O88.5 -110
U895. -110

 

[Doug]

Even at full juice on both sides?

Like
O88.5 -110
U895. -110

breakeven is hitting 1 of 21, 5% wins money.

 

[JohnnyB]

breakeven is hitting 1 of 21, 5% wins money.

True enough, and the more I think about it, I'd have to change my guess to around 8%.

 

[Doug]

True enough, and the more I think about it, I'd have to change my guess to around 8%.

in particular if the original line is near 89, less so if the line is like 109.

I'm saying all games should hit 89 less so than games lined within 3-4 or so , of that 89 target. So backtesting looking for 89's is less accurate than narrowing it down, first.

 

[JohnnyB]

in particular if the original line is near 89, less so if the line is like 109.

I'm saying all games should hit 89 less so than games lined within 3-4 or so , of that 89 target. So backtesting looking for 89's is less accurate than narrowing it down, first.

Absolutely.

 

[Doug]

Catching that point on H2 is much more difficult than H1. Lines move like crazy.

 

[Iceman]

Even at full juice on both sides?

Like
O88.5 -110
U895. -110

no, 1.5 middles on halftime totals are great, that is what I had today. throw in a buy back at reduced juice.

 

[D2bets]

I would say around 3-3.5%.