Im always looking to buy low and sell high. I use this as my last deciding factor when I'm on the fence with a game. Miami on Thursday was a great example of that. They won 2 in a row by 30+ pts and then laid an egg vs. the Pats. I bought the Pats lowww, if that game was in week 5 the line would have been 17. The theme for my picks this weekend follows this theory to a tee.
1 Unit
Oak +3 - This is a situational play. Im not in love with the fact that Cooper will be on Revis Island all day or that the Raiders will be up against the #1 rush D. But my gut is telling me the world will be on the JETS as everyone saw them almost beat the Pats. Whenever 90% of the action is on one side I'm going opposite. Something tells me Fitzpick has a clunker off the let down game vs. the Pats. This Raiders D lead by Del Rio can make some plays. Mack and Smith set the edge better than any DE duo in the league. No Mangold will definitely help with the pressure against Fitzpatrick seeing his replacement has 0 NFL live snaps. Jets are very HIGH so buy a very good Oakland team LOW.
2 Units
TB +7.5 - I said Im looking for opportunities to play TB every week and this is one of them. Lets have a look at who Atlanta has really played so far:
1. Eagles - Bottom 10 team. Losing in 4th qtr. Won by 2
2. Giants - Bottom 15 team. Losing in 4th qtr. Won by 4
3. Cowboys - Minus Romo and Dez
4. Texans - lol
5. Skins - Bottom 10 team, won by 6
6. Saints - LOSS
7. Titans - Luckily beat the worst team in the league by 3 points
So I think we are seeing a pattern here. Evans and Martin are healthy. I like the 7.5 alot.
Denv +3 (-115) - Manning cant throw anymore. I don't even know how he will get his wideouts the ball. lol. Good luck if you've fallen into this trap. Ill take the best defense in the league at home getting points each and every time. Oh I almost forgot I also get one of the best QBs to every play the game, limp arm or not. Buying Denver very LOW.
3 Units
Dallas +6 - Seattle isnt known for being a juggernaut on the road. They have no right giving up almost a TD to a solid Dallas team at home, with or without Romo. Everyone saw Dallas lose to the Giants. Seattle has beaten Detroit, Chicago and SF this year. Dallas is running their full offensive game plan with Cassell, the same they'd run with Romo. Last week 2 of Cassell's INTs werent his fault. I expect a much improved effort this week in his second game. I also expect 7-8 sacks of Wilson which will result in good field position and maybe some fumbles. Im buying Dallas very LOW.
Under Denv/GB 45.5 - I like this play more than the side. Its across the key number of 45 (24-21 is a winner). I really see this game as a chess match with two very good defenses on the field. First mistake wins the game and everyone will be cautiously calling their plays in an effort to not be the first to F up.
Chicago + 1 - Many times has Chicago played a clunker when I thought they were going to be a clear winner. MANY. Cutler off a bye and Alshon and Bennett both in action. Minn is 30th against the rush and Im looking for a fresh Forte to have his way. Bridgewater played one of his worst games of the year at Soldier last year. The Bears are 2-1 since Cutler returned. Minn is very HIGH and Im buying Chicago very LOW.
No 4 or 5 Unit plays this week.
Other Insights:
Pitt vs. Cinn. - Ive flipped on this game so many times this week that I have given up on it. Currently Im leaning Pitt..
NO vs. NYG. - If Beasley doesnt play then I might be pounding NO.
KC vs. Det - If you play this game your fucking mental.
Car vs. Indy - Im starting to hear all the "indy in a upset" chatter... Im not convinced.
Balt vs. SD - Two shit pod teams in a shoot out. Anyone could win in an ugly game.
BOL, CC
1 Unit
Oak +3 - This is a situational play. Im not in love with the fact that Cooper will be on Revis Island all day or that the Raiders will be up against the #1 rush D. But my gut is telling me the world will be on the JETS as everyone saw them almost beat the Pats. Whenever 90% of the action is on one side I'm going opposite. Something tells me Fitzpick has a clunker off the let down game vs. the Pats. This Raiders D lead by Del Rio can make some plays. Mack and Smith set the edge better than any DE duo in the league. No Mangold will definitely help with the pressure against Fitzpatrick seeing his replacement has 0 NFL live snaps. Jets are very HIGH so buy a very good Oakland team LOW.
2 Units
TB +7.5 - I said Im looking for opportunities to play TB every week and this is one of them. Lets have a look at who Atlanta has really played so far:
1. Eagles - Bottom 10 team. Losing in 4th qtr. Won by 2
2. Giants - Bottom 15 team. Losing in 4th qtr. Won by 4
3. Cowboys - Minus Romo and Dez
4. Texans - lol
5. Skins - Bottom 10 team, won by 6
6. Saints - LOSS
7. Titans - Luckily beat the worst team in the league by 3 points
So I think we are seeing a pattern here. Evans and Martin are healthy. I like the 7.5 alot.
Denv +3 (-115) - Manning cant throw anymore. I don't even know how he will get his wideouts the ball. lol. Good luck if you've fallen into this trap. Ill take the best defense in the league at home getting points each and every time. Oh I almost forgot I also get one of the best QBs to every play the game, limp arm or not. Buying Denver very LOW.
3 Units
Dallas +6 - Seattle isnt known for being a juggernaut on the road. They have no right giving up almost a TD to a solid Dallas team at home, with or without Romo. Everyone saw Dallas lose to the Giants. Seattle has beaten Detroit, Chicago and SF this year. Dallas is running their full offensive game plan with Cassell, the same they'd run with Romo. Last week 2 of Cassell's INTs werent his fault. I expect a much improved effort this week in his second game. I also expect 7-8 sacks of Wilson which will result in good field position and maybe some fumbles. Im buying Dallas very LOW.
Under Denv/GB 45.5 - I like this play more than the side. Its across the key number of 45 (24-21 is a winner). I really see this game as a chess match with two very good defenses on the field. First mistake wins the game and everyone will be cautiously calling their plays in an effort to not be the first to F up.
Chicago + 1 - Many times has Chicago played a clunker when I thought they were going to be a clear winner. MANY. Cutler off a bye and Alshon and Bennett both in action. Minn is 30th against the rush and Im looking for a fresh Forte to have his way. Bridgewater played one of his worst games of the year at Soldier last year. The Bears are 2-1 since Cutler returned. Minn is very HIGH and Im buying Chicago very LOW.
No 4 or 5 Unit plays this week.
Other Insights:
Pitt vs. Cinn. - Ive flipped on this game so many times this week that I have given up on it. Currently Im leaning Pitt..
NO vs. NYG. - If Beasley doesnt play then I might be pounding NO.
KC vs. Det - If you play this game your fucking mental.
Car vs. Indy - Im starting to hear all the "indy in a upset" chatter... Im not convinced.
Balt vs. SD - Two shit pod teams in a shoot out. Anyone could win in an ugly game.
BOL, CC
