CC's Week 4 Insights and Picks

[CruzControl]

So the Vegas tally for the first three weeks are:

Week 1 - Huge Public Win, Books got crushed
Week 2 - Huge Book Win, Public got crushed
week 3 - Huge Public Win, Books got crushed more than week 1, and probably one of the worst days in their history.
Week 4 - Hmmm


Heres a few things to consider when looking at week 4's games:

1) The Miami and Jets game is in London. Take Miami's hot home field angle and throw it out the window. Also both teams were embarrassed last week, so you can throw that angle out the window too. The Dolphins are a poorly coached and disciplined team. They will be amongst the leagues worst this year.

2) Atlanta - They have trailed in the 4th quarter of every game this year..

3) Oakland- First time as a road fav. since 2012.

4) Cinn- All 3 of their wins have come against the weakest defenses in the league.

5) Indy vs. Jax- Indy beat Jax last year by a combined 47 points.

6) TB vs. Car- Carolina has a bye next week and struggled with NO. TB's kicker missed 3 FGs and 1 XP last week.

7) Wash vs. Phili - Phili had the 3rd worse YPP average last week in their blowout of the NYJ.


Thoughts on tonights game:

One thing Pitt has going for them is that teams usually get up to play the week after losing a key player. You see this time and time again. Look at Dallas first half last week until they wore out in the 2nd. Pitt will be able to control the clock with LeVeon and produce some points. I expect a top effort in the 1st half for sure.

Baltimore could very well be 3-0 right now. They were in all 3 of those games until the end. They have huge problems on defense which I feel will be exploited by the semi-elite Flacco. Baltimore has nothing to lose at 0-3. I expect a lot of chance taking and big plays from them tonight on national TV. The baltimore wagons are still circling and I expect a top effort to show everyone on national TV that their not a bad as everyone thinks.

1 Unit - Pitt 1st H +1.5
1 Unit - Balt ML


If you have any notable considerations for week 4 please post them here.
CC

 

[dkistler]

Thankyou)(&

 

[CruzControl]

Good start to the week going 2-0 on Thursday Night. I feel like I had a good understanding of how that game would develop and it laid out exactly as I thought.
Pitt is in big trouble until Big Ben comes back. They have the best RB/WR combo in the league and it will be immobile until he comes back. Baltimore has no speed on Offense or Defense, along with a handful of other deficiencies. They are a bottom 7 team for me going forward.

1 Unit - NYG +5.5
This play is a gut move based on how much time Ive spent following these two teams the last 2 months. The Giants always fair better as a road team, not to mention they are on 10 days rest. They might be 1-2 but they have lead in the 4th in all 3 games. They do have issues on the DL and at LB. Buffalo will get some points as a result. Im keeping an eye on whether Robert Ayers DE plays or not, this will help greatly if he does. This Buffalo squad is coming off a blow out in Miami and a feel they regress a bit here. Great stat to back this up, Buffalo is 2-21 ATS all time coming off a win in Miami.

2 Units - Wash +3
Classic overreaction line to Phili's performance last week vs. the Jets. Im not in love with Cousins but he has shown this year he can get the job done at home vs. an excellent front 4. This is exactly what he'll face this week after 10 days of rest and prep. There has been lots of distraction this weekend with the possible Hurricane coming to this area that I feel the extra prep angle plays with more weight in this game. Wash has the best yardage differential in the league +283. Even though Phili won last week their numbers are still dismal. 3.4 ypp (3rd worse in week 3) and only 240 yards on offense.

2 Units - Ariz -7
Im officially on the Zona and the Pats gravy train. I will be most likely playing them at home from here on out barring any major injuries. Every stat and angle Ive looked at for this game points to Zona. STL had 11 first downs last week and 12 the week before. The league average was 20. Key injury for this game is Mike Lupati LG returns. Palmer doesn't feel the pressure from one of the leagues best defense fronts and he rolls again.

3 Units - NYJ -1
In London, both teams on a bye next week. Miami is a mess and usually Id play a team after getting blown out the prior week. The problem is Miami doesn't have the coaching to rebound from a blow out. This is very similar as to why the 49ers won't rebound either this week. You need solid coaching to pull you out of these whirlwind downward spirals. Key injury here is Brandon Alpert LT is OUT. He went down last game and you saw what happened to that Dolphin O-Line. The NYJ have the 2nd best D in the league, there will be no relief for Miami until their week 5 bye. Fitzpatrick had his clunker game last week, I see him rebounding here as well.

3 Units - Oak -3
Fox vs. Del Rio round 3 (1-1 Jax vs. Car days). Im buying Oakland stock right now, they have several winnable games coming up. Key Injury here is Jermon Bushod LT is OUT. This is why Jay Cutler sits out this week again. Chicago traded their veteran DE this week and their best tackler on defense. The rest of the team takes notice when this happens and realizes your mailing it in. Huge deflation for whats left of this Bears squad.

BOl, CC

 

[TomandJerry]

Good luck this week CC, nice posting.

 

[CruzControl]

Adding:

Cleve +6. 2 Units
Cleve ML. 1 Unit

 

[CruzControl]

5-4 yesterday. :think2:

The only play I didn't have a chance at was the Zona play. This league puzzles me some days. I think we realize now why Zona is more of a top 5 team in the league and not a top 3.

Id also like to point out that I didn't see Cutler was playing until after 1pm. I was away from the TV from 11-1. I wasn't to happy to see this as he was suppose to miss 5 GAMES not 2. Cost me a big bet.


My thoughts on tonight are:
Detroit has shown that the only way they can win is when Stafford throws the ball ALOT. This is a big problem for them in going up against the leagues best secondary. The other issue with this game is Seattle's offense doesn't have the ability to put big points on the board and their offense is always 1 turnover away from being in a tight game. Could the Seattle D blank Detroit.. possible but not likely. Can the Seattle offense team play a flawless game with no turnovers...possible but not likely. Double digits is a lot to lay in this league especially by a team that can't run the score up.
Lean Detroit.. But no play until I get more some more info