CC's Week 3

CruzControl · Sep 25, 2015

First,... A scouting report from the Giants/Wash Game.

I was at the game with great seats. I was curious to see who the Giants really are up close and personal. My takeaway from the game is as follows:
-The are a legit #10-11 team in league. Lock them into this spot, the mystery is over.
-The Offensive line can control the line of scrimmage against a good defense front. This will play very well moving forward against teams in the NFC East. Once VC comes back you can expect even better play and protection from them.
-The Linebacker corp. is very weak. Every run appeared as if it needed the help of a DB to make the final tackle and Cousins threw the ball over the middle at his will.
-Their D-Line isnt able to get any inside pressure against a pretty good O-line although they did a great job at containment.

Overall, they are a team that will handle the lower tier teams very well. It appears based on their remaining schedule that they could make the playoffs at around a record of 8-8. They also could legitimately be a 2-1 or 3-0 team and after watching them I feel like they belong there.

Washington is going to win some games with their schedule. Cousins doesn't play well against the Giants, period. He is comparable to Fitzpatrick and Tannehill. They are going to be able to run the ball on almost any defensive front in the league. Their WR corp. can get separation and will be open when Cousins figures out how to throw the ball to them. Im making a mental note to look for line value when they play teams that lack a good LB corp, and dont have a good run game. Im looking forward to making some money on this team in the right spots in the future. I am also going to start paying more attention to the Unders in all Washington games.

Sundays games/writeups to come soon..
CC

CruzControl · Sep 27, 2015

In analyzing this week’s matchups the biggest question for me is,... are the 0-2 teams really that bad or have they gotten unlucky. This is really important to understand this week as there are 8 matchups that involve 0-2 teams.
Last week the angle was will the 0-1 teams fight harder to not go 0-2. And a few of those teams like Pitt and Minnesota proved they had the resolve to not lose two in a row.
This week the question is, are the 0-2 teams really the bottom feeders of the league or did they just have a bad week 1, then got unlucky in week 2. Lets use the NYG as a example. Those of you who made money on the Giants on Thursday realized that yes the NYG could be 2-0 if it weren't for a few bad plays in the 4th quarter. This week you have the following teams at 0-2. Lets have a look at each of those teams to try and determine which ones will rebound and which ones wont;

Baltimore -
Game 1 vs. Denver: Lost a close game against a strong Denver D.
Game 2 vs. Oak: Got a bad pass interference call in the 4th and Steve Smith was a toe away from scoring a TD instead they settled for a FG.

New Orleans-
Game 1 vs. Ariz: Got dominated the whole game vs. a real good top 3 team.
Game 2 vs. TB: Trailed the whole game and looked inept of offense

Houston-
Game 1 vs. KC: Trailed the whole game at home. Garbage TD in the 4th. Never in contention
Game 2 vs. Car: Didn’t look as bad as game 1 as they fought to not go 0-2. But never really seemed like they had a chance to win with Mallett.

Phili
Game 1 vs. Atl: Looked real good in the second half and had a chance to win the game.
Game 2 vs. Dallas: Ugliest game I’ve ever seen. Dallas appeared to have their playbook.

Indy
Game 1 vs. Buff: Never had a chance the whole game. Dominated.
Game 2 vs. Jets: Luck threw 3 Int’s and they had 5 total TO’s. This stat usually doesn’t repeat. Indy's D made Fitzpatrick look pretty good.

Sea / Chicago
Im going to skip this game as their both 0-2 and the outcome is pretty obvious.

Detriot
Game 1 vs. SD: Lead at the half. Won the turnover battle and still lost. Late garbage TD put them within a score in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP].
Game 2 vs. Minn: Trailed the entire game. Never felt like they had a chance.

I hope this info helps helps shed some light on who these teams really are going into week 3.
CC

CruzControl · Sep 27, 2015

1 Unit: JAX +14
Pats on a bye next week and are 4-12 ATS under Brady as double digit home favs. Jags played well last week not allowing a sack and had no turnovers. Blake went for 278 and 2 TDs and appears to be the weak link on this team. There are ALOT of good players on this team. The Jags do have some injury concerns going into this week but the 14 points is to juicy to resist.

1 Unit: TB +7 (-120)
Last year the Bucs lost a lot of close games. I’m expecting things to even out with them this season. I don’t want to jump the gun after 2 weeks but there is hope in TB. It’s my opinion that Houston has no right to lay 7 points to anyone in this league with Ryan Mallett at QB. To lose this bet I fell like the Houston D/Special Teams will have to score 3 TDs. Mike Evans returns and is reported to be 100%. Houston’s only offense weapon DeAndre Hopkins was in concussion protocol this week. And Houston is missing their best O-Lineman in Brown. That W at New Orleans last week was huge for TB as I feel Winston is the kind of player that feeds off of that type of confidence.

2 Units: Buffalo +3
This bet is more of a fade on Miami then it is a play on Buffalo. To start they have the weakest home field advantage in the league, with an ATS record as a Home Fav of 12-39. Last week NE had 8 sacks and 3 Int’s vs. Tyrod Taylor. This was the result of a disciplined and extremely well coached defense. Miami has neither of these. Suh is a renegade and the rest of the D-Line doesn’t have the coaching to maintain their gap control to yield NE type of numbers. Miami had 0 sacks and 0 ints last week vs. Blake Bortles. I expect the young QB to have a lot of the same results he had in week 1. One other small note is Miami has their next game in London. Teams going to London seem to treat it like a BYE coming up and play flat. I’m not giving this a lot of weight but it should be noted.

1 Unit: Denver -3
I’m really not a fan of betting short road favs so I’m definitely holding back alil on this game. Detroit gave their best effort in SD week 1 only to lose. They looked defeated last week in Minn. Megatron looks to have lost a full step. If we see Kubiaks offense this week I feel Detroit can keep it close. If Manning is in the shotgun Detroit has no chance. Stafford is playing today with 4 separate injuries, and is up against a top 5 defense. Manning on 10 days rest is 8-4 ATS. The one factor that is keep me from making this a bigger play is Detriot has Seattle on Deck and will be facing 0-4 with a loss today.

3 Units: Balt -2.5
Dalton has a career 7 TDs and 12 Ints vs. Baltimore. Baltimore has one of the strongest home fields in the league. Baltimore has the Steelers on deck on the road so they will circle the wagons and everyone is showing up to play today. They could possibly be 2-0 going into today’s game. There is no doubt that losing Suggs has hurt them badly and they have to make some adjustments in the middle of that D-Line. I feel there is very little chance Baltimore doesn’t come away with a W today as this is a must win scenario to save their season.

Another game Im watching is Phili. If it goes to +3 Im making a move.