The biggest adjustment I made to my capping from last year was to limit my units in the first four weeks of the season. Thankfully I followed through with that this year as the first two weeks for me were a bomb going 4-7. Next year Ill be limiting my plays all together the first four weeks and I may not even play at all. Throw out weeks 1 and 2 and Id be sitting dead on at 60%. I feel like between now and the end of the year I will surpass my goal of 60%. Onto week 14...
Thursday Night:
Here is my first three things I look at for Thursday games...
1) The very first thing I take it account on Thursday night is QB comparison. Specifically, how much natural talent does the QB have to counter balance the lack of prep time. In this particular match up I don't see a clear winner as both QB's have comparable talent in my opinion. I do however give a slight edge to Cutler as he has had a full 7 days to prep for this game as Romo has only had 4.
2) The second thing I look at is home field advantage. This is especially important to me on Thursdays as a team who doesn't have to travel has more prep time. Advantage Chicago.
3) Next thing I review is previous and next opponents for both teams. Specifically are there any divisional match-ups on deck or did a team leave it all on the field the previous week. In Chicago's case they are what I call "week to week" now. Meaning they are playing for their jobs every week. So no capping consideration here. In Dallas's situation they came into the Phili game under-prepared and now have to play again in an under-prepared situation in a cold/harsh environment. Lastly, And the most important thing here, is Dallas has Phili on deck AGAIN next week. Huge advantage Chicago.
There are a dozen additional factors to consider before pulling the trigger on a play but these are my "first three" for Thursdays.
Chicago +3.5 for 3 Units (big play)
Thursday Night:
Here is my first three things I look at for Thursday games...
1) The very first thing I take it account on Thursday night is QB comparison. Specifically, how much natural talent does the QB have to counter balance the lack of prep time. In this particular match up I don't see a clear winner as both QB's have comparable talent in my opinion. I do however give a slight edge to Cutler as he has had a full 7 days to prep for this game as Romo has only had 4.
2) The second thing I look at is home field advantage. This is especially important to me on Thursdays as a team who doesn't have to travel has more prep time. Advantage Chicago.
3) Next thing I review is previous and next opponents for both teams. Specifically are there any divisional match-ups on deck or did a team leave it all on the field the previous week. In Chicago's case they are what I call "week to week" now. Meaning they are playing for their jobs every week. So no capping consideration here. In Dallas's situation they came into the Phili game under-prepared and now have to play again in an under-prepared situation in a cold/harsh environment. Lastly, And the most important thing here, is Dallas has Phili on deck AGAIN next week. Huge advantage Chicago.
There are a dozen additional factors to consider before pulling the trigger on a play but these are my "first three" for Thursdays.
Chicago +3.5 for 3 Units (big play)
