CCs Playoff Picks and Discussion.

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3-1 last week. ^!: YTD 55-52

If I could erase the first few weeks of this season Id be a up really big this year. Lesson learned once again, take it slow at the start. Im marking this down with a bright yellow highlighter for next year.

Im carrying over my mindset from week 17 into the playoffs. K.I.S.S., and the cream rises to the top. Getting too cute will get you hurt this time of year. Yes, there will be a cinderella story, and yes, there is going to be a few upsets. But dont over think these games and let the numbers do the talking.

Heres this weekends winners:

INDY +3 (bought 1/2 pt to -135). $1500
Indy is 13-3 SU at home with Luck at QB. Luck has figured out how to move the ball without Wayne and the O-line has only given up 3 sacks in the last 3 games. They have adjusted the offense to spread the field out which will limit the effectiveness of the blitz. They are getting hot at the right time. KC was a fake all year, living off their high turnover margin and beating up on non-playoff caliber teams. Well the dust has settled and the KC smoke and mirror show is over. Ill take the better QB and homefield advantage getting the points. Easy decision here.

NO +3 (Even) $1500
Ok the Saints are 0-5 in playoff road games under Brees. Also their 5 loses this year (all on the road) were to very good defenses (Car, NE, Seat, STL, NYJ). Please bear in mind that all 5 of these loses were to teams with above average secondaries and above average LBs. Phili on the other hand, has the worst ranked secondary in the league and is ranked 29th in the league on pass defense. Graham, Sproles, Stills, and Colston provide a wide range of options for Brees to exploit this porous Phili defense. Im taking the playoff experienced coach and QB and the NFLs 4th ranked defense in this one. Remember week 5 and what happened to the Bears weak secondary at Soldier Field?? I expect much of the same here...

Ill be back tomorrow with Sundays winners.

Good Luck everyone, CC. cheersgif
 

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CC- I think you are spot on with the NO analysis - Breese lights em' up IMO.

LET'S WIN THE FOOTBALL MONEY!!
 

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Good start to the weekend going 2-0 yesterday. Looking forward to keeping the moment going today.

Cinn -6 1/2 $1000
This is a classic example of a game in which you shouldnt overthink the line. Cinn is 8-0 ATS at home this year which means they have been devalued all season. This season long line value comes from the fact that Andy Dalton is perceived as a below average QB. Although this may be true, which is highly debateable, they still win games pulling away. How do they do this you ask...They do this with great teamwork. This Cinci team has a great core of players who all work together. Andy and The Cinci defense do not allow a mistake or a turnover to effect their future performance. They have done this all season long. Just when you think they are down they respond with a pick-6 or a 80 yard TD pass. So will Andy make some mistakes today..? Its very possible. Id say 50/50 at best. There is also a chance he has a stellar game in which this line should be closer to 13. With all this being said Im not overly impressed with SD, that given their best effort last week, they barely got the win vs. a KC team full of backups. Also if you look at SD's opponents this year you will see that they havent played a single team with a top 5 defense or top 5 secondary (except Cinn in week 13). IMO Rivers is exposed today for who he really is and this hungry Cinci team makes a huge statement to start the playoffs.

SF -3 $1000
SF is built for playoff football. They are a road team to the core. They have won ATS in their last 7 road games. Remember last year in the playoffs when Crabtree and Davis were both healthy? They moved the ball effectively and efficiently. SF is healthy and hungry, something you need to win in the post season. I like SF all the way to the Lombardi trophy. Smith, Brooks and Bowman disrupt Rodgers to the point of complete ineffectiveness today. No C. Matthews on D is similar to no Troy Polomalu for Pittsburgh. Im taking the team with the 8 pro-bowlers and something to prove.

Best of Luck Today!

CC
 

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Hoping CIN gets off to a fast start... 2nd half will probably have rain it looks like and could be sloppy conditions. Might look at playing the Under 2h or live bet.

BOL today!
 

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2-1-1 last week. Shoulda grabbed SF earlier to avoid the push.

This weekends winners:

NO +8. $1000. No way they get blown out twice. Especially Ina playoff game

NE -7. $1000. Bellicheck and two weeks of prep. Those Indy Hail Marys from last week won't be happening.

Car PK. $1000. Already beat them once. At home ona weeks rest.

BOL Everyone. CC
 

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Like all 3 bud! NO should stay close all game long and I think NE wins by DD.

lets do this!
 

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3-2-2 in playoffs to date.

Getting my action in early as I know these lines will be moving against me:

NE +4.5 $2000 (max wager)
NE ML +180 $1000

SF +3.5 $1500
SF ML +160 $750

Cheers, CC :103631605
 

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Joe Public on both these plays (70% each). Not feeling as good as I was in the beginning of the week...
Trying to decipher which of these two to flip on. Any suggestions?
 

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Both in my opinion. No offense.
 

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