New England +5' (@ Denver)
Seattle -3' (vs San Fran)
Two things I want to get established right up front.
I've had a crap NFL season including being 3-6 in the Playoffs.
And I'm from Boston.
I'll never forget the Super Bowl party I had here in 2001. The Patriots, the team who had been brutally inept through different owners and coaches and players for year after year were 14 point underdogs to the Greatest Show on Earth, the St Louis juggernaut. But as the guys assembled here for that game there was an optimism in the air. We had seen our young QB win games in smart ways. We had seen our defense turn teams over at the most opportune times. We knew this coach had this team playing like none other we had ever seen here in New England. Many bruised high five hands and neighborhood rattling screams later, the New England Patriots were World Champions.
Of course since that wonderous evening in 2001 these Patriots have gone on to be the darlings of many around the Country or the hated devils of many around the country. But here in Boston they have led the way to a Professional Sports insurgence that swept up the Bruins, the Celtics, and the Red Sox in it's wide wake. The Patriots have led the way to a golden era for us New England sports fans. So we love Brady. And we love the Hoodie. Those guys are the constants who have led the way to a lot of smiles around here. A lot.
So... I freely admit that my objectivity re the Pats left the barn many years ago. They made me a lot of money when the doubters doubted and the haters blindly hated. But it's not so easy any more. The record of B&B now screams at you whether you refuse to listen or not. 36-17-1 ATS (30-24 SU) when lined as dogs. 16-5 ATS (12-9 SU) when lined as dogs since 2006. That's a pretty good starting place whether you love 'em or hate 'em. Read those numbers again. Now read 'em again. That's what you're up against if you bet Denver today.
And I'm gonna add a few more numbers that stick out at me that put the value in the Patriot's camp:
There have been only 2 times in 14 lifetime meetings that Manning's teams have beaten the Pats by 5 points or more. The last time it happened was 7 games ago in 2006.
The Patriot secondary is healthier now than it has been all year. Talib is their shutdown corner. Dennard is a name most of you are not likely familiar with. He has been dinged up for most of the season. But when healthy, which he is now, this kid can play. Ryan is a rook who has steadily improved as the season has progressed. McCourtey has his moments. These are the guys who will likely play a big role if the Patriots do their thing. Peyton has Bellichik ghosts in his head. In his three Playoff games against Bellichik defenses he has 2 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Yep. Those are the numbers. And the Pats have the BEST defensive passer rating (79) that Manning has faced all year. I'm expecting the Patriot secondary to influence this game in a big way.
Oh yea, two other numbers that jump out at me. Denver led the NFL in fumbles lost with 16. And the Pats are +9 in turnover differential while Denver is +/- 0. Turnovers define football games, especially Playoff games.
The last tidbit I'm gonna leave here is one that I already posted elsewhere on the board. I got it from a guy named John Blue at the RX and I verified it myself. Since realignment in 2002 any team who rushes for four or more TDs in one game (Pats had 6 last week) are 9-0 to win their next game. I've thought about this stat and think it is successful for two reasons.
First, because if a team can run the ball they can control the game and if they can run it and score touchdowns running it it means that they are dominant because they score running it despite the other team knowing that is exactly what you are going to do.
And secondly, because EFFECTIVE play action is defined by such running dominance. If it was effective with the following list of guys feigning the play action, how is it gonna be with a guy named Brady doing the play action?
Plummer
Green
Hasselbeck
Ryan
Delhomme
Rivers/Volek
Flacco
Rogers
Campbell
Yep. I'm an incurable homer. But how am I going to bet against what I just presented you with? I'm not.
Good luck guys. Have fun.
Seattle -3' (vs San Fran)
Two things I want to get established right up front.
I've had a crap NFL season including being 3-6 in the Playoffs.
And I'm from Boston.
I'll never forget the Super Bowl party I had here in 2001. The Patriots, the team who had been brutally inept through different owners and coaches and players for year after year were 14 point underdogs to the Greatest Show on Earth, the St Louis juggernaut. But as the guys assembled here for that game there was an optimism in the air. We had seen our young QB win games in smart ways. We had seen our defense turn teams over at the most opportune times. We knew this coach had this team playing like none other we had ever seen here in New England. Many bruised high five hands and neighborhood rattling screams later, the New England Patriots were World Champions.
Of course since that wonderous evening in 2001 these Patriots have gone on to be the darlings of many around the Country or the hated devils of many around the country. But here in Boston they have led the way to a Professional Sports insurgence that swept up the Bruins, the Celtics, and the Red Sox in it's wide wake. The Patriots have led the way to a golden era for us New England sports fans. So we love Brady. And we love the Hoodie. Those guys are the constants who have led the way to a lot of smiles around here. A lot.
So... I freely admit that my objectivity re the Pats left the barn many years ago. They made me a lot of money when the doubters doubted and the haters blindly hated. But it's not so easy any more. The record of B&B now screams at you whether you refuse to listen or not. 36-17-1 ATS (30-24 SU) when lined as dogs. 16-5 ATS (12-9 SU) when lined as dogs since 2006. That's a pretty good starting place whether you love 'em or hate 'em. Read those numbers again. Now read 'em again. That's what you're up against if you bet Denver today.
And I'm gonna add a few more numbers that stick out at me that put the value in the Patriot's camp:
There have been only 2 times in 14 lifetime meetings that Manning's teams have beaten the Pats by 5 points or more. The last time it happened was 7 games ago in 2006.
The Patriot secondary is healthier now than it has been all year. Talib is their shutdown corner. Dennard is a name most of you are not likely familiar with. He has been dinged up for most of the season. But when healthy, which he is now, this kid can play. Ryan is a rook who has steadily improved as the season has progressed. McCourtey has his moments. These are the guys who will likely play a big role if the Patriots do their thing. Peyton has Bellichik ghosts in his head. In his three Playoff games against Bellichik defenses he has 2 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Yep. Those are the numbers. And the Pats have the BEST defensive passer rating (79) that Manning has faced all year. I'm expecting the Patriot secondary to influence this game in a big way.
Oh yea, two other numbers that jump out at me. Denver led the NFL in fumbles lost with 16. And the Pats are +9 in turnover differential while Denver is +/- 0. Turnovers define football games, especially Playoff games.
The last tidbit I'm gonna leave here is one that I already posted elsewhere on the board. I got it from a guy named John Blue at the RX and I verified it myself. Since realignment in 2002 any team who rushes for four or more TDs in one game (Pats had 6 last week) are 9-0 to win their next game. I've thought about this stat and think it is successful for two reasons.
First, because if a team can run the ball they can control the game and if they can run it and score touchdowns running it it means that they are dominant because they score running it despite the other team knowing that is exactly what you are going to do.
And secondly, because EFFECTIVE play action is defined by such running dominance. If it was effective with the following list of guys feigning the play action, how is it gonna be with a guy named Brady doing the play action?
Plummer
Green
Hasselbeck
Ryan
Delhomme
Rivers/Volek
Flacco
Rogers
Campbell
Yep. I'm an incurable homer. But how am I going to bet against what I just presented you with? I'm not.
Good luck guys. Have fun.
hno::monsters-
