I wouldn't put much stock into recent performance. It's a long season, after cruising to the finals B2B years they're just not going to bring intensity every night.
They got a lot of deficiencies defensively but offensively they should still romp everyone in the East. Think the current -275 is more or less correct. LeBron isn't going to make the finals forever but still heavy fav.
They got a lot of deficiencies defensively but offensively they should still romp everyone in the East. Think the current -275 is more or less correct. LeBron isn't going to make the finals forever but still heavy fav.
I'll go on record and say they wont make it. Forget recent performances, they haven't been great all year. NBA you have to show some sort of brilliance during the year in order to win it imo. Golden st have an excuse with their best player out. But, I still think there is enough talent in the east this year to push cavs to the limit
Other than "not showing brilliance" and possibly fatigue from playing close to 100+ games the last 2 years, why do you think they are worse?
None of their players have had meaningful dropoffs, they added Kyle Korver who is still 1 of the best catch and shoot players in the league. Other than that, team is pretty much the same. The east is better but the Cavs were working with a pretty big margin of error to begin with.
Hunger for one. Chip is off the shoulder. Kyrie has proved he is elite now. Lebron has delivered. I mean there are many of off the court reasons why. But on the court, Kyle Korver is a liability on defense. Remember Channing Frye was a huge piece down the stretch last year, a big who could stretch the floor. Nobody really saw that coming. Washington is forreal. They have depth, but really it is all about John Wall. If he takes the next step I can see the Wizards knocking off the Cavs. I'm not a wizards fan. Cavs have the same team pretty much but if they lost a bunch of guys then everyone would be saying they wouldn't make it to the finals.
It's not so much that the Cavs are so much worse but I think the East is just so much better than years past. Boston has a chance because Horford is there. Boston were never going to beat the Cavs without a presence inside. Same can be said for the Wizards, but they can outscore the Cavs. I think no matter how much the Cavs turn it up defensively for the playoffs....Wizards will give them a run for their money, because of the matchup. Boston is more defensive and can win multiple ways
Yeah I've never really bought into gauging motivation as a form of analysis but people do it because it's easy and isn't something that can be easily refuted since it isn't tangible and can't be measured. Even if it is a real thing, as outsiders we would have a very limited way of knowing who feels content and who doesn't (short of Shaq looking like a fatass or something like that)
Korver might be a liability on defense but you aren't playing the Warriors here. Teams still have to exploit that better than the Cavs can exploit them, we'll see.
I think Wizards probably have the best shot as well but it isn't like there aren't chinks in their armor either. Porter is legit but their help D/rim protection isn't great. Wall probably need to ruin Kyrie for them to win as well.
Korver might be a liability on defense but you aren't playing the Warriors here. Teams still have to exploit that better than the Cavs can exploit them, we'll see.
I think Wizards probably have the best shot as well but it isn't like there aren't chinks in their armor either. Porter is legit but their help D/rim protection isn't great. Wall probably need to ruin Kyrie for them to win as well.
I would have taken the East field early in the season, and I'd do the same now, but the Cavs are still the rightful favorites to win. There's no one team to be scared of, but there are now three teams proving to be tests (not including the surging Bucks). I think before where it was thought that they'd cruise to the East finals and have one tough series against the Raptors (i believe the main contender at the beginning of the year) now they are going to have at least two tests.
They are in the headlines now because their defense has been utter shit since the All Star break, but they've added several pieces so maybe not that unusual. And they're coasting and I assume, they expect to be able to "flip the playoff switch" when need be. They probably will as that's what Lebron does, and if you're looking to buy Cavs stock, now's the time...but they are not going to win with their current defensive efficiency.
They are in the headlines now because their defense has been utter shit since the All Star break, but they've added several pieces so maybe not that unusual. And they're coasting and I assume, they expect to be able to "flip the playoff switch" when need be. They probably will as that's what Lebron does, and if you're looking to buy Cavs stock, now's the time...but they are not going to win with their current defensive efficiency.
But you can't really "buy low" on Cavs stock because the market price doesn't reflect any loss in probability of them winning based on recent results. It basically has the view that I have, this doesn't mean a ton and they are still prohibitive favs.
They are actually higher to win the east on the futures market than they've been the last few years. Especially 2015 where they weren't even very big favs.
They are actually higher to win the east on the futures market than they've been the last few years. Especially 2015 where they weren't even very big favs.
Lol shaq looking like a fat ass is certainly something tangible.
Not saying that they are content and don't want to repeat. I'm saying that it's human nature to let up given the situation. Kind of like when a team over achieves and they are just destined to setback.
It's different when you win the superbowl and then go out and significantly improve your team. Like the patriots did. But cavs didn't improve their team by much if at all.
Wiz interior defense is not great. Neither team matches up well with each other honestly. Which would make it an exciting series
I do believe in chip on your shoulder. And stuff to prove. I definitely believe in that stuff. Especially in sports where pride means a ton
Perfect example.....
Brett Favre first year as a Viking. Had that chip to murder the packers. What did he go out and do? 7 tds 0 ints in two games vs them the first year.
The second year after having all that success....given he was an old man and a professional football defense just tried to literally kill him...he proceeded to come back and have two horrendous games against the packers. They had a very similar team. But that chip was gone. He had already proved it to them and to himself. He was destined to not have the same success
Perfect example.....
Brett Favre first year as a Viking. Had that chip to murder the packers. What did he go out and do? 7 tds 0 ints in two games vs them the first year.
The second year after having all that success....given he was an old man and a professional football defense just tried to literally kill him...he proceeded to come back and have two horrendous games against the packers. They had a very similar team. But that chip was gone. He had already proved it to them and to himself. He was destined to not have the same success
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
Also, he was then 40 and Sidney Rice who was their #1 WR got hurt before the season thus severely limiting what they could do offensively. How do you know if he wanted it more or less? In all likelihood the answer isn't quite that sexy, really he just got old and sucked. It happens. Ask Peyton Manning.
I'm not saying intangibles like that don't exist, I'm saying your chances to predict them beforehand aren't very good. So focus on stuff like team/player caliber, matchups, X&Os, coaching, etc.
Also, he was then 40 and Sidney Rice who was their #1 WR got hurt before the season thus severely limiting what they could do offensively. How do you know if he wanted it more or less? In all likelihood the answer isn't quite that sexy, really he just got old and sucked. It happens. Ask Peyton Manning.
I'm not saying intangibles like that don't exist, I'm saying your chances to predict them beforehand aren't very good. So focus on stuff like team/player caliber, matchups, X&Os, coaching, etc.
I hadn't looked at the odds prior to my post...but very true, 5/16 to win East, YIKES!
My point was public perception has never been lower and I would have expected odds to win East to increase prior to playoffs...but i can't see them going much higher then they are now. Shows Vegas thinks they'll flip the switch too. Effort appears to be the biggest defensive issue at the moment, I don't think they are broken.
Sidney rice was a no name before favre. He didn't want it as much lmao that's my point. He didn't. He had a chip the first year and was extra motivated to prove people wrong. I know what confirmation bias is. This isn't that. I agree capping one particular game wont work this way but that's not what we're doing in here. This is 3 months in advance
I believe intangibles are a legit factor of handicapping. I think pats is being too technical with the "you can't measure it" speech. If only tangibles were needed
to win at betting there would probably be no books. No matter how shitty the team, if they lose by 30 away you can be sure they will leave it all on the field next time
they meet that opponent, especially at home.
to win at betting there would probably be no books. No matter how shitty the team, if they lose by 30 away you can be sure they will leave it all on the field next time
they meet that opponent, especially at home.
If you think you can gauge motivation and you want to include it into your thought process in terms of figuring out probability then go ahead, I'm not saying it is always misguided but it is more on the end of emotional thinking. Most of the that armchair psychologist stuff is fluff to me. But it certainly makes for a more interesting television conversation than talking about who can and can't switch a pick and roll.
If they lose people will obviously come up with all kinds of fun stuff "The team quit on the coach" "LeBron didn't want it as much" "Kyrie is content" ...That's how it works.
When all of those things would pale in comparison to the actual reason they lost, they're extremely flawed defensively and the Wizards or whoever found a way to exploit that.
And Sidney Rice had 80-1300 the year before, c'mon of course his loss hurt the Vikings. I'm not even saying Favre's effort wasn't there the next year but being 40 and without your #1 WR has a lot to do with that. Kyrie Irving is like half Favre's age bro, you're kinda using an extreme example there.
Why? We are dealing with humans not robots. Emotion is part of it. Not everything is X's and O's. Or else all of those basketball experts would always be correct. But they're not. Ask jay bilas, doug gottlieb, and all of those other nerds who think they know the game and just the game. Those guys can't predict a damn thing.
