big pick six carryovers abound to open the race week. although the fields at hollywood are smaller, it is my home track and there looks like no standout in the pick 6 races. here's my analysis, pre-scratches. for anyone morbidly curious, i will post my pick 6 tix shortly after the first leg goes off.
r1: madeittothemoon. i actually think we'll get a price on this breuer trainee with gf up. funny story about masakado kid, i was at del mar two years ago when he broke his maiden at 10-1. a good friend of mine told me this horse couldn't lose, blahblahblah- got bet down from a 30/1 morning line to 10/1 and looked like a 3/5 shot coming home. well, there was value once again a few weeks ago, but i'm betting against the 'kid repeating that performance. 'moon on the other hand, has a ton of talent and should go very well here in his second start back. favorite fierce heart scares me not at all and naughty nacho is cheapcheapcheap.
R3: flying pilot. this is a sad bunch of claimers and i will back 'pilot (can we see a gf almeida double??) first out for aguirre. dr. frank will no doubt run better at this level and deserves a look, as does fourth and long, who drops in from the bay. society sal showed speed and weakened for o'neill, so for anyone looking to cover this race, it look like you'll have to go 4 deep.
R4: Warm Welcome. i've about given up on skywalker red, who looked like a sure thing last out at the top of the lane, only to get run down by a couple of dogs late. i'll take a chance with the son of bertrando on the stretchout for hendricks. 'welcome gets a huge rider upgrade from lovato to flores; i got a hunch he's going to get bet down a ton, so there may not be much value here. the other one to look at is comebacking kofi, who has never hit the board, but looks set to fire fresh for jory.
r6: herecomes big g. ok, caesar is absolutely awful with firsters and his stock repeatedly does not fire first out. i may back him at juicy odds in here b/c the rest of the field is so empty. the other firster, kissy kate also catches the eye from the same connections as 'pilot in the 3rd race. can gf almeida win three races on a card. believe it or not, i was at the track the last time that happened at hollywood park, some ten years ago. a patron told me it was like watching haley's comet- it only happened every 76 years. i still remember the horses- diablo rouge, raines right, and lady snerd. rounded out a 5k all-gf pick-3. i digress....anyway, 'big g has trained well and has win early breeding with western fame on top- he should be running on at the end. 'kiss kat also has trained well in the mornings, should show more speed than 'big g and gets the coveted outside box.
r9: legendary traitors. this colt was cold on the board in special weight company and now gets the blinks on the drop for the money run. o'neiil and pval on a horse sure to show speed? sounds like a recipe for sucess to me.
good luck.
r1: madeittothemoon. i actually think we'll get a price on this breuer trainee with gf up. funny story about masakado kid, i was at del mar two years ago when he broke his maiden at 10-1. a good friend of mine told me this horse couldn't lose, blahblahblah- got bet down from a 30/1 morning line to 10/1 and looked like a 3/5 shot coming home. well, there was value once again a few weeks ago, but i'm betting against the 'kid repeating that performance. 'moon on the other hand, has a ton of talent and should go very well here in his second start back. favorite fierce heart scares me not at all and naughty nacho is cheapcheapcheap.
R3: flying pilot. this is a sad bunch of claimers and i will back 'pilot (can we see a gf almeida double??) first out for aguirre. dr. frank will no doubt run better at this level and deserves a look, as does fourth and long, who drops in from the bay. society sal showed speed and weakened for o'neill, so for anyone looking to cover this race, it look like you'll have to go 4 deep.
R4: Warm Welcome. i've about given up on skywalker red, who looked like a sure thing last out at the top of the lane, only to get run down by a couple of dogs late. i'll take a chance with the son of bertrando on the stretchout for hendricks. 'welcome gets a huge rider upgrade from lovato to flores; i got a hunch he's going to get bet down a ton, so there may not be much value here. the other one to look at is comebacking kofi, who has never hit the board, but looks set to fire fresh for jory.
r6: herecomes big g. ok, caesar is absolutely awful with firsters and his stock repeatedly does not fire first out. i may back him at juicy odds in here b/c the rest of the field is so empty. the other firster, kissy kate also catches the eye from the same connections as 'pilot in the 3rd race. can gf almeida win three races on a card. believe it or not, i was at the track the last time that happened at hollywood park, some ten years ago. a patron told me it was like watching haley's comet- it only happened every 76 years. i still remember the horses- diablo rouge, raines right, and lady snerd. rounded out a 5k all-gf pick-3. i digress....anyway, 'big g has trained well and has win early breeding with western fame on top- he should be running on at the end. 'kiss kat also has trained well in the mornings, should show more speed than 'big g and gets the coveted outside box.
r9: legendary traitors. this colt was cold on the board in special weight company and now gets the blinks on the drop for the money run. o'neiil and pval on a horse sure to show speed? sounds like a recipe for sucess to me.
good luck.
