I'm on Carolina -4.5 & -6. With that in mind, the prop bets I like coincide with that. Could be a lot of losers, or not, who knows.
Sometimes you can find some lucrative odds with the two books I use through 2 locals, or some contradicting ones. For example, There is a margin of victory props for Carolina, my book has panthers
1-3 +400
4-6 +700
7-10 +350
11-13 +1100
14-17 +700
18-21 +900
22+ +300
Crazy that the lowest odds for this is Carolina to win by 22+… Also this site does adjusted spreads and has Carolina as such:
-7.5 +115
-10.5 +145
-14.5 +220
-17.5 +375
-21.5 +500
So I’m not saying I will take any of these, but obviously if I want to gamble on a Carolina blowout, the adjusted spread -21.5 is 200 points higher than margin of victory over 22+… interesting stuff or just a dumb book.
Anyways before I get into the props I lean, here is another interesting option I may explore.
Both Carolina and Denver has the same odds for these “crossing” plays.
Will DEN first 1[SUP]st[/SUP] down be a
Pass (-200)
Rush +155
Will DEN cross the 50 on a
Pass (-200)
Rush +155
Will DEN enter the redzone with a
Pass (-200)
Rush +155
And same odds for Carolina doing the same. I wouldn’t dream of laying that kind of juice on a pass, even though it may likely be more likely to happen, as these rush defenses are pretty stout, but that’s some mighty juice. I’m exploring taking all 6 bets for a rush +155. Here are the possible outcomes for a $100 wager.
(0-6) -600
(1-5) -445
(2-4) -90
(3-3) +165
(4-2) +420
(5-1) +675
(6-0) +930
Here is another interesting one:
Carolina first TD will be:
Pass TD (-150)
Any other +110
Same odds for Denver. Similarly, I wouldn’t dream of laying -150 on this, chances of a DEF/ST td and rush TD with plus juice seems like a decent prop for plus money. America loves passing.
Now onto the prop leans with a Carolina bias
Cam Newton more TD passes than Manning ML: +135
Carolina more first downs -1.5 (-115)
Carolina total sacks Over 2.5 (-120)
Den Rush yards Under 97.5 (-120)
Peyton under 238.5 pass yards (-115)
Thoughts appreciated, best of luck to all next Sunday.
Sometimes you can find some lucrative odds with the two books I use through 2 locals, or some contradicting ones. For example, There is a margin of victory props for Carolina, my book has panthers
1-3 +400
4-6 +700
7-10 +350
11-13 +1100
14-17 +700
18-21 +900
22+ +300
Crazy that the lowest odds for this is Carolina to win by 22+… Also this site does adjusted spreads and has Carolina as such:
-7.5 +115
-10.5 +145
-14.5 +220
-17.5 +375
-21.5 +500
So I’m not saying I will take any of these, but obviously if I want to gamble on a Carolina blowout, the adjusted spread -21.5 is 200 points higher than margin of victory over 22+… interesting stuff or just a dumb book.
Anyways before I get into the props I lean, here is another interesting option I may explore.
Both Carolina and Denver has the same odds for these “crossing” plays.
Will DEN first 1[SUP]st[/SUP] down be a
Pass (-200)
Rush +155
Will DEN cross the 50 on a
Pass (-200)
Rush +155
Will DEN enter the redzone with a
Pass (-200)
Rush +155
And same odds for Carolina doing the same. I wouldn’t dream of laying that kind of juice on a pass, even though it may likely be more likely to happen, as these rush defenses are pretty stout, but that’s some mighty juice. I’m exploring taking all 6 bets for a rush +155. Here are the possible outcomes for a $100 wager.
(0-6) -600
(1-5) -445
(2-4) -90
(3-3) +165
(4-2) +420
(5-1) +675
(6-0) +930
Here is another interesting one:
Carolina first TD will be:
Pass TD (-150)
Any other +110
Same odds for Denver. Similarly, I wouldn’t dream of laying -150 on this, chances of a DEF/ST td and rush TD with plus juice seems like a decent prop for plus money. America loves passing.
Now onto the prop leans with a Carolina bias
Cam Newton more TD passes than Manning ML: +135
Carolina more first downs -1.5 (-115)
Carolina total sacks Over 2.5 (-120)
Den Rush yards Under 97.5 (-120)
Peyton under 238.5 pass yards (-115)
Thoughts appreciated, best of luck to all next Sunday.
