[h=1]Kevin Love is better for Chicago[/h][h=3]Five reasons the Bulls should opt for Love over Anthony[/h]By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider
At least in terms of the Chicago sports news cycle, the Chicago Bulls re-emerged from offseason exile a couple of days ago when reports emerged Kevin Love was hitting the trade market, and Chicago was one of his preferred destinations.
The Bulls are often part of the rumor mill whenever a star player is looking for a new home, and just as often, Chicago fans are disappointed. Tim Duncan, Tracy McGrady, Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and even hometown hero Dwyane Wade have all at one time or another seemed destined to follow in Michael Jordan's Nike-clad footsteps. Back in January, I analyzed Carmelo Anthony's situation and concluded that the Bulls were the most logical fit if he leaves the Knicks. Since then (not because of me), Anthony's name has been affixed to the Bulls whenever the subject of Chicago's offseason plan is broached.
Now you can add Love to the list of Chicago's high-profile pursuits, and it creates an interesting dynamic around here, while setting the city up for even more disappointment. Most NBA fans around the country are debating the merits of acquiring Love, and calculating the assets it would take to do so. In Chicago, the question du jour is very different: Melo or Love? Obviously, the question itself suggests that the Bulls have a lot more control over the situation that they actually do, which is very little. The cost for both players is going to be high in both dollars and assets, and the competition to acquire them will be fierce, likely driving up the price even more.
This is a classic sports debate. The Bulls might have to give up a little more to get Love, because Anthony can be a free agent. Nevertheless, targeting Love is the better move, and it's not particularly close. Why? Let us count the reasons.
[h=3]1. Kevin Love is a better player.[/h]
People know this, right? Anthony is a more famous person and a great player in his own right -- a borderline MVP candidate at his best -- but Love is a top-five producer in the NBA -- the elite of the elite. Let's start with WARP, which does a great job of blending efficiency and volume. Last season, Anthony posted 14.2 WARP, ranking ninth in the league. That's All-Star production and was the best total, and ranking, of Anthony's 11-year career. Nevertheless, he produced six fewer wins than Love, who was third in the league with 20.2 WARP.
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Over the past three seasons, Love has a 39.2 to 33.6 edge in WARP over Anthony even though he missed 64 games in 2012-13. Love's winning percentage -- the per-possession component of WARP -- was over .700 for the third time in four years. Anthony's .643 mark last season was the best he's ever done. Both are high volume players, but Love is more a more efficient shooter, draws more fouls, hands out more assists and, even after accounting for position, he laps Anthony in terms of board work. Neither is a great defender, but at the bottom line, Love's Real Plus-Minus of plus-5.10 is elite, while Anthony's plus-2.73 is merely very good.
[h=3]2. Love is younger, and is a good bet to be a better player going forward.[/h]
Love, who will be just 26 at the outset of next season, is a full four years younger than Anthony, meaning that he's just barely entering what are typically the peak years for a player. Anthony turns 30 on Thursday, though to be fair, his game has improved markedly over the past couple of years, and with athletic markers as strong as they've ever been, he's a good bet to remain at this plateau for a while. He still won't catch Love in bottom-line value, even if Love doesn't improve from here. My system projects Love to produce a whopping 29 more WARP over the next five seasons.
[h=3]3. Love is the scarcer commodity.[/h]
Think of the disparity in bottom-line value like this: Love's percentile rank in three-year WARP is 99.1, meaning if there are roughly 450 players in the NBA in any given season, only four or five of them are in his class. Anthony's three-year percentile rank is an excellent 98.3, but that means there are eight or nine players who offer his value. Another way to think of it is rarity of skill set. Anthony's primary skill is scoring, and he's great at it. He's one of just 10 players in NBA history with a scoring average of 25 or more points and a true shooting percentage of at least .540. Love's forte is his inside-outside combo skills. Among players with at least 300 career games, here's the list of those to average at least 12 boards and 1.2 3-pointers per game: Kevin Love. And, for what it's worth, Love averaged more points per minute than Anthony did last season.
[h=3]4. Love is more projectable.[/h]This is a more subjective observation, but if the Bulls acquire Love, we know what he'd look like in the Tom Thibodeau system. That's because he's not unlike the man he'd replace, Carlos Boozer, except that he's better by a couple of degrees. Love's defense isn't great, but it's better than Boozer's, and we don't know how much of an uptick he'd make on that end under Thibodeau. On offense, Love offers superior skills as a pick-and-pop partner with Derrick Rose because of his ability to fan out to the 3-point line. He offers improved skills in high-low passing in tandem with Joakim Noah, a facet of Chicago's non-Rose offense that has been underrated. Meanwhile, we don't know quite how Thibodeau would tailor his system around Anthony, but we do know this: Last season, only Orlando attempted long 2s at a higher rate than the Bulls, and only two players attempted more long 2s than Anthony.
[h=3]5. Love is a better fit with Rose.[/h]
There is little risk of Rose feeling uncomfortable sharing the spotlight with Love. They've been friends since their AAU days, workout together during the offseason and are less than a month apart in age. Given Anthony's celebrity and more established status, the Bulls would arguably become his team if he landed in Chicago. Would a healthy Rose be able to play second fiddle? In less sports-talky matters, the comparison extends to the court. Rose and Anthony are both in the territory of a baseline usage rate at 31 percent or higher, though Anthony has gone as high as 36 percent. Love is at around 29. That lends itself to a more clear offensive hierarchy in terms of possession distribution alone. Plus Love had a 16-WARP season in which his usage rate was just 23 percent -- he's a proven second fiddle. Anthony's usage has been over 30 percent nine straight years. Love is also more used to playing off the ball -- 10 percent more of his career baskets have come off assists than Anthony.
This is not a "Bulls should avoid Melo" analysis. He'd be a home run acquisition. But given a choice that may or may not exist, Love is the more desirable target. That's true now, and it's going to become even more true. Of course, as with all matters concerning the Bulls, if Rose isn't healthy, none of this matters.
At least in terms of the Chicago sports news cycle, the Chicago Bulls re-emerged from offseason exile a couple of days ago when reports emerged Kevin Love was hitting the trade market, and Chicago was one of his preferred destinations.
The Bulls are often part of the rumor mill whenever a star player is looking for a new home, and just as often, Chicago fans are disappointed. Tim Duncan, Tracy McGrady, Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and even hometown hero Dwyane Wade have all at one time or another seemed destined to follow in Michael Jordan's Nike-clad footsteps. Back in January, I analyzed Carmelo Anthony's situation and concluded that the Bulls were the most logical fit if he leaves the Knicks. Since then (not because of me), Anthony's name has been affixed to the Bulls whenever the subject of Chicago's offseason plan is broached.
Now you can add Love to the list of Chicago's high-profile pursuits, and it creates an interesting dynamic around here, while setting the city up for even more disappointment. Most NBA fans around the country are debating the merits of acquiring Love, and calculating the assets it would take to do so. In Chicago, the question du jour is very different: Melo or Love? Obviously, the question itself suggests that the Bulls have a lot more control over the situation that they actually do, which is very little. The cost for both players is going to be high in both dollars and assets, and the competition to acquire them will be fierce, likely driving up the price even more.
This is a classic sports debate. The Bulls might have to give up a little more to get Love, because Anthony can be a free agent. Nevertheless, targeting Love is the better move, and it's not particularly close. Why? Let us count the reasons.
[h=3]1. Kevin Love is a better player.[/h]
People know this, right? Anthony is a more famous person and a great player in his own right -- a borderline MVP candidate at his best -- but Love is a top-five producer in the NBA -- the elite of the elite. Let's start with WARP, which does a great job of blending efficiency and volume. Last season, Anthony posted 14.2 WARP, ranking ninth in the league. That's All-Star production and was the best total, and ranking, of Anthony's 11-year career. Nevertheless, he produced six fewer wins than Love, who was third in the league with 20.2 WARP.
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Over the past three seasons, Love has a 39.2 to 33.6 edge in WARP over Anthony even though he missed 64 games in 2012-13. Love's winning percentage -- the per-possession component of WARP -- was over .700 for the third time in four years. Anthony's .643 mark last season was the best he's ever done. Both are high volume players, but Love is more a more efficient shooter, draws more fouls, hands out more assists and, even after accounting for position, he laps Anthony in terms of board work. Neither is a great defender, but at the bottom line, Love's Real Plus-Minus of plus-5.10 is elite, while Anthony's plus-2.73 is merely very good.
[h=3]2. Love is younger, and is a good bet to be a better player going forward.[/h]
Love, who will be just 26 at the outset of next season, is a full four years younger than Anthony, meaning that he's just barely entering what are typically the peak years for a player. Anthony turns 30 on Thursday, though to be fair, his game has improved markedly over the past couple of years, and with athletic markers as strong as they've ever been, he's a good bet to remain at this plateau for a while. He still won't catch Love in bottom-line value, even if Love doesn't improve from here. My system projects Love to produce a whopping 29 more WARP over the next five seasons.
[h=3]3. Love is the scarcer commodity.[/h]
Think of the disparity in bottom-line value like this: Love's percentile rank in three-year WARP is 99.1, meaning if there are roughly 450 players in the NBA in any given season, only four or five of them are in his class. Anthony's three-year percentile rank is an excellent 98.3, but that means there are eight or nine players who offer his value. Another way to think of it is rarity of skill set. Anthony's primary skill is scoring, and he's great at it. He's one of just 10 players in NBA history with a scoring average of 25 or more points and a true shooting percentage of at least .540. Love's forte is his inside-outside combo skills. Among players with at least 300 career games, here's the list of those to average at least 12 boards and 1.2 3-pointers per game: Kevin Love. And, for what it's worth, Love averaged more points per minute than Anthony did last season.
[h=3]4. Love is more projectable.[/h]This is a more subjective observation, but if the Bulls acquire Love, we know what he'd look like in the Tom Thibodeau system. That's because he's not unlike the man he'd replace, Carlos Boozer, except that he's better by a couple of degrees. Love's defense isn't great, but it's better than Boozer's, and we don't know how much of an uptick he'd make on that end under Thibodeau. On offense, Love offers superior skills as a pick-and-pop partner with Derrick Rose because of his ability to fan out to the 3-point line. He offers improved skills in high-low passing in tandem with Joakim Noah, a facet of Chicago's non-Rose offense that has been underrated. Meanwhile, we don't know quite how Thibodeau would tailor his system around Anthony, but we do know this: Last season, only Orlando attempted long 2s at a higher rate than the Bulls, and only two players attempted more long 2s than Anthony.
[h=3]5. Love is a better fit with Rose.[/h]
There is little risk of Rose feeling uncomfortable sharing the spotlight with Love. They've been friends since their AAU days, workout together during the offseason and are less than a month apart in age. Given Anthony's celebrity and more established status, the Bulls would arguably become his team if he landed in Chicago. Would a healthy Rose be able to play second fiddle? In less sports-talky matters, the comparison extends to the court. Rose and Anthony are both in the territory of a baseline usage rate at 31 percent or higher, though Anthony has gone as high as 36 percent. Love is at around 29. That lends itself to a more clear offensive hierarchy in terms of possession distribution alone. Plus Love had a 16-WARP season in which his usage rate was just 23 percent -- he's a proven second fiddle. Anthony's usage has been over 30 percent nine straight years. Love is also more used to playing off the ball -- 10 percent more of his career baskets have come off assists than Anthony.
This is not a "Bulls should avoid Melo" analysis. He'd be a home run acquisition. But given a choice that may or may not exist, Love is the more desirable target. That's true now, and it's going to become even more true. Of course, as with all matters concerning the Bulls, if Rose isn't healthy, none of this matters.
