Careful betting on weak teams

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Always find the team records and ats records interesting. Of course you really need to look deeper on H/A ats records when searching for possible plays.

Be careful before betting on one of these teams. Usually bad records mean bad ats records and good team records cover a lot. Not always but most of the time.

The bottom tier of conferences listed first and then top tier.


AAC Record and ats record (wish I would have went against)

Tulsa 1-4.....1-4 way up $
Connecticut 1-4..... 0-5 way up $
Tulane 1-4..... 1-4 Way up $
Southern Methodist 0-5..... 1-4 Way up $

top 2

East Carolina 4-1.. 4-1 (they put up a lot of points, last game failed to cover)
Temple 3-1.. 3-1 (just don't know what to think about this team)


ACC (bottom teams are weak this year but they don't suck)

Syracuse 2-3 .........1-4
North Carolina 2-3 ..0-5 ??? this week maybe,
Wake Forest 2-4 ....3-3 always get spotted a few more

top of standings

Georgia Tech 5-0... 3-2 Nice record but ats so-so
Florida State 5-0.... 1-4 always giving a ton of points
Louisville 5-1.... 4-2 better than people expected so far this year
Duke 4-1 ...2-2 nice record but lines have caught up with them
North Carolina State 4-2... 3-3 mediocre
Virginia 4-2.... 5-1 weak lines as they were not supposed to be very good


Big 10 (I'd tread careful in this conf as there are a lot of average joes)

Purdue 3-3.... 4-2 almost always the dog
Illinois 3-3.... 1-5 getting 24 this week at Wiscy, Wiscy bad ats 1-5. I think
Michigan 2-4 ...2-4

top: as of right now, really has been a tough conf to figure out

Rutgers 5-1... 4-2 kind of a surprise so far to me
Nebraska 5-1... 5-1 They score a lot of points
Michigan State 4-1... 3-2 still decent team but lines are inflated
Penn State 4-1... 3-2 Have been better than expected
Ohio State 4-1.... 4-1 first year in a long time lines not inflated (QB injury)


Big 12 (If their winning then good chance of covering)

Kansas 2-3... ...2-3 fired the big guy
Texas 2-3........ 3-2 not much offense
Texas Tech 2-3 ..1-4 still no D
Iowa State 1-4 ...2-3 don't give them to many at home, never on the road

Baylor 5-0 ...5-0 Scoring machine
TCU 4-0 ...4-0 Not to shabby either

Conf USA (the bottom tier have covered their fair share of games)

Florida Atlantic 2-4.... 4-2
Southern Miss 2-4.... 3-3
UTSA 1-4.... 2-3

top: Probably one of the top dog conf to take the points in this year

Marshall 5-0........ 3-1-1
Middle Tennessee.. 4-2 4-2
UAB 3-2...... 3-2
Louisiana Tech 3-3....... 5-1
Florida International 3-3... 5-1

MAC (I have never in my life been able to figure out this conf. They play anybody if you will schedule them) good teams usually don't want to play them.

Bottom

Western Michigan 2-3 ...4-1 (a proud program who gives 100%)
Eastern Michigan 1-4.... 2-3 terrible and usually getting 4 or more TD's
Ball State 1-4...... 2-3 The program has taken some steps backward
Miami (Ohio) 1-5 ....3-3 weak but always getting a decent spot
Kent State 0-5 .....1-4 weak this year but could get 1st w this week
Massachusetts 0-6.... 4-2 almost won game last Sat, major choke

top : balance in the conf makes it very hard to figure out

Northern Illinois 4-1.... 3-2
Toledo 4-2.... 2-4
Bowling Green 4-2... 2-4

Mountain West

New Mexico 2-3 ...1-4 how many years have they been money going ats
San Diego State 2-3.... 2-3
Hawaii 1-4.... 3-2 Oh how I miss the Hawaii and the overs of old
UNLV 1-5... 1-5 will this program ever be respected

top:

Colorado State 4-1... 4-1 don't know this team but they are covering so far
Air Force 4-1..... 3-2 big W over Navy, armed forces get respect
Boise State 4-2.... 4-2 long for the days of blow outs on the blue turf
Wyoming 3-2 .....2-3 improved team
Utah State 3-2... 1-4 Watched them beat up on BYU, how good are they

PAC 12 (the top names will always be spotting extra in this conf)


listing the whole conf to see records vs ats records

Arizona 5-0 ....2-3 interesting to see what happens now that in full conf swing
Washington 4-1 ...2-3 were supposed to be decent this year, spot to many?
California 4-1.... 4-1 SUPRISE, after last year has to be most improved so far
UCLA 4-1.... 1-4 inflated lines, no line as QB getting murdered
Oregon 4-1... 1-4 lines inflated but it's hard to play against them (rep)
Oregon State 4-1... 2-3 Conf time now will see some losses
Arizona State 4-1... 2-3 Always fun to watch, over team
Utah 4-1.... 4-1 always a dog, and almost always in every game
Southern Cal 3-2... 3-2 better than I thought they would be
Stanford 3-2... 2-3 Good D and one more stop away from taming the Irish.
Colorado 2-4.... 3-3 they get spotted a lot, just don't know a lot about them
Washington State 2-4... 3-3 Fun team to watch play, coach will give you ulcers when you have a paly on them.


SEC Probably with a doubt the best all around conf in the country and it hurts me to say it. Even the down teams of the past are very good now. Now this league will really beat up on each other because the bottom tier teams have all improved. I always look for the decent home dog in this conf or the small favorite.

Mississippi State 5-0.... 4-1 top notch qb, they are for real
Mississippi 5-0........... 5-0 beating Bama was a start,
Auburn 5-0............... 3-2 always giving a ton but score a ton
Texas A&M 5-1............3-3 Still no consistency on D, overs
Georgia 4-1................ 2-3 because of rep always give to many
Alabama 4-1............. 1-4 winning record, ats opposite, REP, SPOT
Missouri 4-1............... 3-2 Appear to be decent and usually get spotted
Kentucky 4-1................. 4-1 Surprise for me, big surprise,
Florida 3-1................... 2-2 What I expected, coach will be canned
LSU 4-2...................... 4-2 Still decent but not the LSU were used to
Arkansas 3-2................. 4-1 They are competing, this week we will find out
South Carolina 3-3............ 1-5 Always over rated, year after year
Tennessee 2-3................ 2-3 surprising me so far, play hard
Vanderbilt 1-5............... 3-3 Way down this year and getting spotted a ton


Sun Belt: by far the weakest conf who get spotted a lot of points in NCG. In conf games could be money if you do your home work.

Ga Southern 4-2.... 5-1
South Alabama 3-2.... 3-2
Louisiana-Monroe 3-2.... 1-4
Arkansas State 3-2... 4-1
Texas State 3-2.... 3-2
Louisiana-Lafayette 2-3.... 1-4
New Mexico State 2-4.... 4-2
Georgia State 1-4..... 3-2
Appalachian State 1-4.... 1-4
Troy 0-5 .....2-3
Idaho 0-5.... 2-3
 

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love all the work and insight......

I think bad teams have a ton of potential for analysis. there are so many different situations of course............. good and really big teams get most of the informed betting analysis.

sunbelt (and its former teams) has been non-conference ATS gold for years (prob. not this year)... draw from states with probably bottomless talent pools playing against huge schools that draw from good but limited talent pools (big 10 seems obvious)
 

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interesting comment on MAC. I see other people say they can't figure that conference out either.
 

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Yep, I refuse to bet on a team who has a rating under 60 in my own power ratings........(currently 25 teams qualify)........That said, still more than a 100+teams are elgible for me to play on.................SMU has been ranked dead last since Week 2 in my ratings and Auburn has been ranked #1 since Week 2 in my ratings.
 

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Yep, I refuse to bet on a team who has a rating under 60 in my own power ratings........(currently 25 teams qualify)........That said, still more than a 100+teams are elgible for me to play on.................SMU has been ranked dead last since Week 2 in my ratings and Auburn has been ranked #1 since Week 2 in my ratings.

There are a few exceptions (such as major rivalry games) where I would play a team I have ranked under 60..........As far as Auburn they became the first team this year to go over the 100 rating mark.....However, Mississippi State made my Top 10 two weeks before the A&M game and moved up more since then.....A very intriguing game.
 

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maybe I can throw this question in here...

I'm very interested in doing quant work on ATS/OU.... just streaks and huge covers/misses and stuff like that. maybe nice if software had power ratings too and some situational analysis...... but looking for pretty simple statistical software. betlabs looks good but expensive (and I swear a computer science grad student could probably come up with something useful like that in a weekend).

any suggestions? I downloaded micro bros winpicks demo but I haven't found it easy to grasp (and I'm not looking to combine 15 factors in predicting games)
 

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Yep, I refuse to bet on a team who has a rating under 60 in my own power ratings........(currently 25 teams qualify)........That said, still more than a 100+teams are elgible for me to play on.................SMU has been ranked dead last since Week 2 in my ratings and Auburn has been ranked #1 since Week 2 in my ratings.

That is a good idea WS, using power ratings to filter out a lot of the weaker teams in the selection process. My power ratings are based on 100 max to begin the season as well, right now I have 24 teams below 60 and about 10 more on the border, right at 60. I can use this to filter out at least half of the MAC and most of the SBC, teams I hardly ever even get to see play on TV. So when one of these games pops up on the radar screen, for whatever reason its easy to just say nope, not gonna do it and move on without wasting time.
 

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Biggest FRAUD ATS record: Florida International (FIU)

Lucky, lucky turnovers. An insane amount. I'm going to be fading hard the rest of the way.
 

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I would be looking to fade Rutgers here soon. They are 5-1 (4-2 vs. the spread) but there best wins are at Washington State, at Navy, and Michigan. All teams under .500. They have to play at Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Maryland and get Wisky and Indiana at home. I think they have over achieved but lets seen them compete with the big boys instead of the cupcakes.
 

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Biggest FRAUD ATS record: Florida International (FIU)

Lucky, lucky turnovers. An insane amount. I'm going to be fading hard the rest of the way.

I'll have to keep a eye out for them. Thanks
 

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I would be looking to fade Rutgers here soon. They are 5-1 (4-2 vs. the spread) but there best wins are at Washington State, at Navy, and Michigan. All teams under .500. They have to play at Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Maryland and get Wisky and Indiana at home. I think they have over achieved but lets seen them compete with the big boys instead of the cupcakes.

Rutgers was on my surprise list. Meaning very surprised that they are doing so well. Your right about their schedule. Should be interesting to see how they do now.

thanks for the heads up
 

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Just trying to help. Really not that much work. I'm getting better at c & p.

It will be interesting to see how the very weak teams do again this week. They seem to be getting more points every week.
 

Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory
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UConn is a mess, I would never advise anyone to bet with them at this point

maybe next year will be different

:neenee:
 

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Yep, I refuse to bet on a team who has a rating under 60 in my own power ratings........(currently 25 teams qualify)........That said, still more than a 100+teams are elgible for me to play on.................SMU has been ranked dead last since Week 2 in my ratings and Auburn has been ranked #1 since Week 2 in my ratings.


SMU is not last anymore ........6th from last now.............Eastern Michigan is 2nd Last now, but the irony is the team they are playing is horrible as well with a rating below 60...This partly explains why you see a lot of weird things in the MAC Conference year in and year out as there are bad teams laying points on the Road to other bad teams........
 

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