Cards 100-1

[PatsFan1283]

Bet Cards at 100-1 to win the SB at MB after the Pats waxed them 47-7....

Only bet 20 to win 2k....

Why is the SB ML so low? I know I've heard theories as to why and they seem logical (tons of public bettors bet the dog ML in the SB), whats everyone think?

Not sure if I'm gonna A. let this bet ride B. bet Pitt back all the way cause of the enticing Fav ML value of the SB C. hedge both sides and pocket $570 guaranteed...

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

I would choose C if I were you.

 

[patrick7033]

This has to be the 100th thread about whether to hedge or not. What seems to be the problem with taking guaranteed money these days? You should always hedge! The reason the books win is because nothing is guaranteed! Now's your shot at free money! take it!

 

[shdw01]

hedge for $20....freerolling and cheer for the cards like you cheer for lovin at night

 

[PatsFan1283]

Patrick...I agree, I was leaning towards C

However, if the SB ML wasn't artificially low I'd probably let it ride...

 

[PatsFan1283]

Shd....See your logic since you get your initial investment back and I think thats a solid idea if we are talking bigger $, but its $20 so it isn't much of a factor....I'll probably just bet $1430 on the Steelers to win 570 or whatever and hope they do so so I don't look like a fool. Tough to passup a 7pt fav at -250 though...

 

[Mr_Mark]

Bet Cards at 100-1 to win the SB at MB after the Pats waxed them 47-7....

Only bet 20 to win 2k....

Why is the SB ML so low? I know I've heard theories as to why and they seem logical (tons of public bettors bet the dog ML in the SB), whats everyone think?

Not sure if I'm gonna A. let this bet ride B. bet Pitt back all the way cause of the enticing Fav ML value of the SB C. hedge both sides and pocket $570 guaranteed...

dont hedge $20. will hate yourself if cards win

it is worth the risk

 

[PatsFan1283]

So you wouldn't take the guranteed $570 Mr Mark?

 

[Iceman]

depends on much the $500 dollars means to you. If it something you really need then obviously hedge it is my thoughts but that is only for you too decide.

As for the ML favorite being so low, you hit the nail on the head, its a known fact that bettors love to bet the underdog straight up to win this game, espeically after last years Giants upset. Look for Steelers under -250 and dont settle for less if you go that route. Good luck!!

 

[timotinbowen]

This has to be the 100th thread about whether to hedge or not. What seems to be the problem with taking guaranteed money these days? You should always hedge! The reason the books win is because nothing is guaranteed! Now's your shot at free money! take it!

The thought process in this post is very flawed, and is the actual reason why books win. Although it's true that you will probably want to hedge (because it seems like a very significant amount of money to you), hedging this bet is -EV, and only acts as insurance for the book.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Timo, Glad to see you respond as I think your as sharp as anyone on this thread. The reason I wanted to hedge was because I thought Steelers ML was a good play anyways since it is -250 and most -7s are -300 range...Obviously you don't just hedge for the sake of hedging as far as EV goes, I understand that...

However, with Matchbook and getting -252 or so ML with Pitt, I'm thinking that isn't a -EV bet (if so, very small amount) and I should tap the current equity of my 100-1 bet...

 

[timotinbowen]

Timo, Glad to see you respond as I think your as sharp as anyone on this thread. The reason I wanted to hedge was because I thought Steelers ML was a good play anyways since it is -250 and most -7s are -300 range...Obviously you don't just hedge for the sake of hedging as far as EV goes, I understand that...

However, with Matchbook and getting -252 or so ML with Pitt, I'm thinking that isn't a -EV bet (if so, very small amount) and I should tap the current equity of my 100-1 bet...

I appreciate your kind words. It's true that the -250 is good value for a 7 pt. favorite. I guess it depends on what you feel the true moneyline should be. Personally, I feel that this line is inflated for public perception/money, so I still think -250 lacks value. However, if you think it is even neutral EV, it does seem wise to hedge some. Thank you for filling me in on your thought process.

 

[Railbird]

depends on much the $500 dollars means to you. If it something you really need then obviously hedge it is my thoughts but that is only for you too decide.

As for the ML favorite being so low, you hit the nail on the head, its a known fact that bettors love to bet the underdog straight up to win this game, espeically after last years Giants upset. Look for Steelers under -250 and dont settle for less if you go that route. Good luck!!

How about the Moneyline is right, and the point spread is out of whack, did you think of that?