capping the nfl preseason

[panther]

I will go through what I do to cap preseason football

preseason roster's are the starting point.I make a copy of all team rosters.

at this point I start going through looking at tapes and my notes on last years preseason players.(if you dont have tapes from last year make sure to tape this year for next)most games that are not live can be found on replay on the 600 chs on dtv.

teams with exp backups in preseason is a big plus.the secound and thrid team players will see most of the action in most preseason games.

teams that are loaded with rookies and 1 or 2 year players are going to make more mistakes. esp in the first 2 weeks of preseason.the rookies no matter how good will have their heads in the clouds. a will be trying to adjust to the game at the next level.

the back up vets know they are fighting for a job. and a bad showing could get them cut

also when you get the rosters copy the deepth chart for each team

another thing you can look at this time of year is sizing up the qb position on the teams.teams with solid vet backs are a big plus.

if a team is carring 4 qbs and 2 are rookie nobodys their is a good chance they will kill you in the sec half.
qb rotation info is givin out in week of the game.I will go into this in detail later

alot more comming

good luck

panther

[This message was edited by The General on June 12, 2003 at 08:28 PM.]

 

[panther]

alot of capping nfl preseason is common sence.

like I always look hard at the games that a team has already played a game

this year these teams will be

ny jets
tampa bay
green bay
kc

going into preseason week 1.this is a advantage in most cases.but tampa bay for a ex of when it is not.they will be on a short pratice week after flying half way around the world after playing in japan.they will be playing again on fri aug 8 at miami

other games involveing this game under belt are

green bay at atlanta aug 9

kc vs san fran aug 9

cinni vs jets aug10

out of these 4 teams 2 teams will be playing their preseason home opener

kc and the jets

I will take a hard look at these 4 games

good luck

panther

[This message was edited by The General on June 12, 2003 at 08:30 PM.]

 

[Gridster]

A coupla additional things. You should lean toward taking the points in any exhibition game. Why, because its an EXHIBITION game. The game is going to be a mess and nobody's trying to win.

Second, read the local sports notes. Unlike the regular season where coaches lie through their teeth about who they are going to play and what they are going to try to do, in the preseason all coaches tell the truth - no reason not to - it's like bizzaro world.

Third, check out the coach's preseason record. All coaches are idiots but some actually believe in winning preseason games.

 

[panther]

grid

right on the money on 2 and 3. on the first I beleive all the 2nd and 3rd team players are trying to win.thats why alot of games change at the half

good post

panther

 

[bblight]

Let's see - today's June 7th - and the Japan game starts the pre-season on August 2nd. That's 56 days from now! I'm itching to go.

Panther, it's good to see you back for another round! I'm looking forward to the season - hopefully this year will be a winner for everyone.

Good luck!

 

[panther]

bblight

great to hear from you.Iam looking forward to the season with the nba comming to a close and the camp rosters out I have started working on preseason.

are you going to vegas??

have a great evening

panther

 

[MrTanaka]

Not edorsing him in any way, shape or form but JR Miller does have a pretty good article on capping the preseason on his site.

http://www.professionalgambler.com/preseason.html

 

[panther]

mr t

good read

panther

 

[Gridster]

I guess everybody's got an angle on how to deal with the preseason.

http://www.gridline2000.com/glfeatur/artcl002.html

 

[bblight]

Panther,
I was just in Vegas in late May.
My son was living in Phoenix, and my wife and I would drive up to Vegas for 4 or 5 days the few times we've visited him - I get great comp rates at Palace Station, so I usually stay there.
My son just got married and moved to Boisse (Boisse? Where the hell is Boisse???), and I just found out I'm now going to be a Grand-dad (first time), so I don't think I'll be leaving my grandchild for Vegas when I visit Boisse (If I can find it) - at least not soon!

As you might remember - I really suck at pre-season, so I'll be following your lead.

Good luck!

 

[Jarbo]

Panther,

As I posted in another thread, you he;ped me make a good sum of cash last preseason. I twas nice going into Pro and college season up on the man. Looking forward to all of you posts. Other than Big Lou's

bashing this is a very informative thread.

Tkake care.

Luck

 

[BigLou+]

Teams playing their second pre-season game facing a team playing their first exhibition game have gone 15-15-3 ATS over the past six seasons. That isn't bashing Jarbo, those are facts.

Big Lou

 

[bblight]

Biglou - it ain't your facts, it's your less than diplomatic way of presenting the "facts" - which pretty much guarantees that you'll piss off whoever you're aiming your "facts" at.

Good luck!

 

[panther]

lou

what does the fact that a trend went 15-15-3 have to do with anything.other than a starting point to capp the games.

their are 4 games this year and I point out 1 game that it will not be a adv

another one that maybe no adv (playing against a home team opener)

and 2 games that it could be a big adv.

2-2 could be the way it turns out this season

its not the system or trend if you just go by them you get killed in the long run

its when you go in deepth into them and find out why they turn out that way.

qb rotation
deepth of team roster
what the coaches plans for the game are
feild adv

these are the things that will make you money

good luck

panther

 

[panther]

jarbo

good to hear from you.look forward to hearing from you on iowa and the midwest college football.its getting closer

bblight

sorry to hear you wont be making the vegas trip.

maybe next time

good luck

panther

 

[SixthSense]

"its not the system or trend if you just go by them you get killed in the long run"

Good thoughts on the preseason. But I have to disagree with your statement listed above. I make a living betting on sports and hit 57% on over 100 games in the NFL last year, on these pages, using systems. If you know what to look for, your systems make sense and you know how to quantify and qualify systems, they will put a lot of money in your pocket.

Good luck this preseason. I'll be chiming in come August.

 

[tatehill2000]

PANTHER!!!!!
whats the word BRO??!!! I have never looked at the rotations as in depth as that,,,, I based them on more topical issues,,,Like which side of my pants my nuts were on,,,haha,,
Seriously,,,

You Just GAVE US Learning to CAP 101,,,

I am Buckled in and patiently awaiting lesson 2,,,, I will change my Nmae to GRASSHOPPER if necessary!1,,,,haha all the best,,,

Hope your well,,
Tater

 

[BigLou+]

You stated in your post that when a team playing their second pre-season game is facing a team playing their first that "this is an advantage in most cases." (Most means way more then 50%, wouldn't you agree?) History shows that this is a losing proposition (after you subtract the vig) over the last six years. So why would you use that as a starting point?

Big Lou

 

[BigLou+]

Maybe I come across as too harsh but all I'm doing is researching what is said and sharing the results because too many times people post things here that just don't add up. If the systems presented earlier made sense then I wouldn't have said anything. Misinformation doesn't help anyone.

Big Lou

 

[tatehill2000]

Lou,,, I dont want to speak for Panther ,,, But dont you think he MEANT,,,,

"an ADVANTAGE as far as his other criteria combined into his picks,,,, NOT JUST 2nd Game alone"

I know your history here,,, and panthers....

Dont you think instead of Picking Him apart RIGHT off the BAT,,, Maybe you might ADD something to His INSIGHT,,,, You did Make the comment,,"everyone uses those type of criteria when making picks panther"

I never did,,,, I am not as ADEPT as you both at capping either,,,,

good Luck to all
Tater