*As briefly discussed in my Bar n Grill thread earlier tonight, I suggest being very prudent about how much weight we give, "PitcherA's history vs TeamB"
Not picking on ALIVER here, but it's the freshest example so I'll toss it out.
That is, he rightly observed that "Andy Pettite is 8-2 lifetime vs Twins".
But upon closer inspection we see that all but one of Pettite's starts vs Minnesota occurred in 2003 or before.
So it's kind of an irrelevant stat considering there might be only one or two guys in Minnesota lineup today that were on roster in 2003.
Not picking on ALIVER here, but it's the freshest example so I'll toss it out.
That is, he rightly observed that "Andy Pettite is 8-2 lifetime vs Twins".
But upon closer inspection we see that all but one of Pettite's starts vs Minnesota occurred in 2003 or before.
So it's kind of an irrelevant stat considering there might be only one or two guys in Minnesota lineup today that were on roster in 2003.
I have very few (if any) true "auto-fades" or "auto-plays", which I'm sure you realize.
I submit the Bosox example as a very decent indicator to be factored into any road game they have vs teams with winning %.
It's a good starting point.
But if they're on the road vs a winning team and that team is starting a rookie and that team has two key offensive injuries and that team has a burned out bullpen from previous nights.....
*Much like we like to reserve playing road teams in other sports to those that have a defense superior to their opponent, we like to reserve our road plays in MLB (presuming even odds for the moment) to teams who have superior bullpens.
I am loathe to play a Road team that has a bullpen ERA over 4.50 even if other factors match up
I am loathe to play a Road team that has a bullpen ERA over 4.50 even if other factors match up
*As the season moves on, I think we can all agree that we like to keep an eye on how teams bat vs LH and RH pitching.
Many teams are fairly balanced, but more are tilted. So if we can catch TeamA batting vs their strong side and TeamB batting vs their weak side, that's a good indicator to include
Many teams are fairly balanced, but more are tilted. So if we can catch TeamA batting vs their strong side and TeamB batting vs their weak side, that's a good indicator to include
*Going back to the actuarial base, we know that even the better teams are only going to outscore their opponents by maybe 150 runs at best (for the season).
So if we catch a good team that has a five game win streak where they've outscored by 15 runs, we know they're edging closer to a game where they win by just one (possible RL play the other way) or even lose by several. (alt runline play?)
They're still 5-1 for W/L but we've spotted the "reversion to center".
A lot of what I do looks for those "reversions to Center".
Even best teams are going to lose 8-10 games in a month.
Now I confess I don't give quite the same weight the other way.
That is, when a team is playing bad, it's not neccesarily a good idea to try and catch them reverting to center.
Kansas City and Seattle are good examples of this as I'm painfully being reminded tonight with my Seattle RL wager (gimme one run in the ninth, man...)
Better most nights to just leave a Shitty team alone, even if the price "looks good".
So if we catch a good team that has a five game win streak where they've outscored by 15 runs, we know they're edging closer to a game where they win by just one (possible RL play the other way) or even lose by several. (alt runline play?)
They're still 5-1 for W/L but we've spotted the "reversion to center".
A lot of what I do looks for those "reversions to Center".
Even best teams are going to lose 8-10 games in a month.
Now I confess I don't give quite the same weight the other way.
That is, when a team is playing bad, it's not neccesarily a good idea to try and catch them reverting to center.
Kansas City and Seattle are good examples of this as I'm painfully being reminded tonight with my Seattle RL wager (gimme one run in the ninth, man...)
Better most nights to just leave a Shitty team alone, even if the price "looks good".
Good Insight tonight
I think I will avoid falling into the trap of how pitchers fair against certain teams. It is just the info that is readily available. I can't say I put enough time into my decisions before I make them but who does? If there is one thing I learned just because an anchorman on ESPN announces stats that make a lean to one side or the other does not make it significant. All that being said looks like I am going to bed a winner tonight. will have 3 more plays tommorrow plus a late night chase if I feel it. G/L Hope your Tigers pull one out Barman.
I think I will avoid falling into the trap of how pitchers fair against certain teams. It is just the info that is readily available. I can't say I put enough time into my decisions before I make them but who does? If there is one thing I learned just because an anchorman on ESPN announces stats that make a lean to one side or the other does not make it significant. All that being said looks like I am going to bed a winner tonight. will have 3 more plays tommorrow plus a late night chase if I feel it. G/L Hope your Tigers pull one out Barman.
Mostly looking at boxscores, studying era's, past scores and standings.
I also factor past games ..trends or experiences?, ie. Eric Byrnes kills the Giants. SD plays SF well in SF. Giants lose a lot of day games, they play low scoring games in SD, usually tight lower scoring games vs LAD. AZ is giants second home. Giants tend to lose in Philly & NY.
I also factor past games ..trends or experiences?, ie. Eric Byrnes kills the Giants. SD plays SF well in SF. Giants lose a lot of day games, they play low scoring games in SD, usually tight lower scoring games vs LAD. AZ is giants second home. Giants tend to lose in Philly & NY.
