Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[ILMW]

Am I looking at this correctly? I see 7 root plays today.

Still early but I see 6?

 

[coachesplays]

BATR

got my stars, almost awake, and ready to go. coach, cant argue with success. yesterday i was going to post the MOV for your games, and i believe that yesterday as with today that ariz MOV when they win is only 1.4 runs, that was the only one of all you had yesterday which had a MOV less than 3. today, it's still ariz 1.4 and tampa at 1.6. but it tough to pick and choose with a system play as you have no clue as to who going to win or lose

gl

Pops, I have tried to look at Margin of Victory in relation to the winning percentage of these things but can't find anything to narrow it down with. It seems that no numbers are consistent enough that I have found.

I am sure there is something out there that would help but I haven't found it yet. Right now, I am just happy it is performing so well.

Open to suggestions though.

 

[coachesplays]

Really, if and when I get time, I am going to look at average length the starter goes for the -2 1/2 versus his bullpen and their e.r.a. That is what is blowing it for me (although I am not complaining about the success) is when a team is up 4 or 5 runs and give up some useless worthless runs in the 9th when pitching some rarely used bullpen guy or one that "needs some work" because he has been sucking.

 

[pops69]

Pops, I have tried to look at Margin of Victory in relation to the winning percentage of these things but can't find anything to narrow it down with. It seems that no numbers are consistent enough that I have found.

I am sure there is something out there that would help but I haven't found it yet. Right now, I am just happy it is performing so well.

Open to suggestions though.

i assume you get the spreadsheet, it only been 9 day, if you keep the previous masters you can look it up. if you dont just send me the games and dates and i'll go back to each one of those and put the MOV number, that you can see if it helps or not worth a shit. just put it on a simple spreadsheet, two items day team, i put in the mov and send it back to you

but if it's not broke, dont try to fix it

 

[ILMW]

coach, great work, although I do not get the chance to play the -2.5 lines, I am glad you guys are doing well at it, keep up the great work.

 

[twjd]

<TABLE borderColor=#ffffff cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TH class=bg0_sub width="20%">Matchup</TH><TH class=bg0_sub colSpan=3>Conditions</TH><TH class=bg0_sub colSpan=2>Game Time Temp</TH><TH class=bg0_sub>Heat Index</TH></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>PHI PHILLIES
FLA MARLINS
Tue 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM CENTER 12-17, GUSTY</TD><TD class=td>79 </TD><TD class=td>71 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>WAS NATIONALS
CIN REDS
Tue 7:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM RIGHT 7-12</TD><TD class=td>80 </TD><TD class=td>40 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>NY METS
ATL BRAVES
Tue 7:35 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY, HAZY.</TD><TD class=td>RIGHT TO LEFT 7-12</TD><TD class=td>79 </TD><TD class=td>41 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>PIT PIRATES
STL CARDINALS
Tue 8:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO LEFT 11-16</TD><TD class=td>81 </TD><TD class=td>48 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>COL ROCKIES
ARZ DBACKS
Tue 9:40 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>LEFT TO RIGHT 10-15</TD><TD class=td>89 </TD><TD class=td>18 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>CHI CUBS
SD PADRES
Tue 10:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO RIGHT 7-12</TD><TD class=td>64 </TD><TD class=td>75 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>MIL BREWERS
LA DODGERS
Tue 10:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO RIGHT 7-12</TD><TD class=td>69 </TD><TD class=td>56 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>HOU ASTROS
SF GIANTS
Tue 10:15 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO LEFT 15-25, GUSTY</TD><TD class=td>64 </TD><TD class=td>53 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>LA ANGELS
DET TIGERS
Tue 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM CENTER 8-13</TD><TD class=td>76 </TD><TD class=td>46 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>BOS RED SOX
NY YANKEES
Tue 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO LEFT 7-12</TD><TD class=td>68 </TD><TD class=td>43 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>TOR BLUE JAYS
BAL ORIOLES
Tue 7:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY FAIR.</TD><TD class=td>RIGHT TO LEFT 6-11</TD><TD class=td>71 </TD><TD class=td>43 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>SEA MARINERS
TB DEVILRAYS
Tue 7:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>TROPICANA FIELD (DOME) </TD><TD class=td>No wind</TD><TD class=td>75</TD><TD class=td>Indoors</TD><TD class=td>75</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>MIN TWINS
TEX RANGERS
Tue 8:05 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS.</TD><TD class=td>RIGHT TO LEFT 12-17</TD><TD class=td>79 </TD><TD class=td>71 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>CLE INDIANS
KC ROYALS
Tue 8:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS EARLY.</TD><TD class=td>OUT TO LEFT CENTER 10-20, GUSTY</TD><TD class=td>74 </TD><TD class=td>63 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR><TR align=middle><TD class=td align=left>OAK A'S
CHI WHITE SOX
Tue 8:10 p.m. ET</TD><TD class=td>

</TD><TD class=td>PARTLY CLOUDY.</TD><TD class=td>IN FROM RIGHT 10-15</TD><TD class=td>80 </TD><TD class=td>40 %
Humid</TD><TD class=td>-</TD></TR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[twjd]

All right Pops I'm looking at the OAK/CWS game all data is pointing towards the under except the 15 day average, it's showing way high compared to the 30 day and 45 day. The ump is 1-3 un this year, the wind is blowing in, the line as moved from 9 to 9-. The 15 day average keeping fom pulling the trigger on the under. Oh shit I forgot to look at the pitchers ERA's, be back latter.

 

[pops69]

All right Pops I'm looking at the OAK/CWS game all data is pointing towards the under except the 15 day average, it's showing way high compared to the 30 day and 45 day. The ump is 1-3 un this year, the wind is blowing in, the line as moved from 9 to 9-. The 15 day average keeping fom pulling the trigger on the under. Oh shit I forgot to look at the pitchers ERA's, be back latter.

l15 are what the teams are doing in the last couple of weeks. you might want to check who they both played eg someone like tampa with no pitching or maybe someone just came back of IR to try and determine why the l15 days is that much diff than the ytd l45 and l30

about the best thing i can say is that the line move is going against your play and you know how those moves have been going

 

[BillDildeaux]

All right Pops I'm looking at the OAK/CWS game all data is pointing towards the under except the 15 day average, it's showing way high compared to the 30 day and 45 day. The ump is 1-3 un this year, the wind is blowing in, the line as moved from 9 to 9-. The 15 day average keeping fom pulling the trigger on the under. Oh shit I forgot to look at the pitchers ERA's, be back latter.

I've watched that ump Crawford this year twice and every batter was getting behind in the count thanks to his large strikezone. Now with the line at 10 I'm all over it.

 

[FennisDembo]

i did del the pivot table that calc those, they were way off the mark so i just 86's them. we still have the data in the combined but were in the process of making a change to how they are bracketed etc. i'm not sure when they will be put back into the master, need something that makes sense and can be applied to the rest of the data

What do I have to do to my version of the sheet to make it calculate the WHIP groupings again. No matter what I do I can't get the sheet to make the calculation again. It was about May 9th when it "turned off". I really liked that feature and felt there were certain situations where it was useful. Thanks.

 

[pops69]

What do I have to do to my version of the sheet to make it calculate the WHIP groupings again. No matter what I do I can't get the sheet to make the calculation again. It was about May 9th when it "turned off". I really liked that feature and felt there were certain situations where it was useful. Thanks.

find a master for that far back that had them, manually add back all the data from that date on, do a refresh all and you should be good to go

i dont believe i have any masters that far back, mine are all to the new format

 

[ILMW]

What do I have to do to my version of the sheet to make it calculate the WHIP groupings again. No matter what I do I can't get the sheet to make the calculation again. It was about May 9th when it "turned off". I really liked that feature and felt there were certain situations where it was useful. Thanks.

What is youre email, I have a master from 5/7.

 

[ILMW]

What do I have to do to my version of the sheet to make it calculate the WHIP groupings again. No matter what I do I can't get the sheet to make the calculation again. It was about May 9th when it "turned off". I really liked that feature and felt there were certain situations where it was useful. Thanks.

Disregard I found youre email, sent you the master from 5/7, hope that helps.

 

[pops69]

Disregard I found youre email, sent you the master from 5/7, hope that helps.

iw, send it to me as well, i'll see if i can updated it w/o killing the whip shit

tks

 

[viccas]

Monday 4-1 +$870. That leads us to 18-24 +$2081 for the 9 days.

St. Louis -2 1/2 +255 Pitt

AZ -2 1/2 +220 Colorado

Baltimore -2 1/2 +295 Toronto

Tampa Bay -2 1/2 +280 Seattle

Good luck.

thanks again and good luck
amazing stuff yesterday

 

[ILMW]

iw, send it to me as well, i'll see if i can updated it w/o killing the whip shit

tks

sent it

 

[FennisDembo]

What is youre email, I have a master from 5/7.

I have most if not all of them on my gmail account. I will try that method...

 

[pops69]

What do I have to do to my version of the sheet to make it calculate the WHIP groupings again. No matter what I do I can't get the sheet to make the calculation again. It was about May 9th when it "turned off". I really liked that feature and felt there were certain situations where it was useful. Thanks.

when you do the update notice the form to calc AT thru ay, you can see that they ref data which is not occupied by the holly history. your going to have choice, the easiest is to not put the holly data in and just add all the normal game data and you should be good to go

the 2nd choice is to try and move the data further to the right, this again might cause the pivot table to not function, so until i get it revised your going to need to have two diff set of masters that will need to be updated

gl

 

[pops69]

I have most if not all of them on my gmail account. I will try that method...

i updated for the whip and sent you a copy. only use the whip&salary as i didnt update the wa nps to the new format. infact you can delete all of the other pivots to keep it small if you like. also the HFTracker is to the old format and i didnt update any of that data either

gl

 

[xanboo]

Pops What You Think The Under

Nationals /Reds Under 10

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="98%" align=center bgColor=#000000 colspan="3"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff colspan="3"><TD width="60%">When CINCINNATI team played as a -160 to -180 home Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - During a night game </TD><TD align=middle>S/U7-5-0 </TD><TD align=middle>O/U1-11-0

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff colspan="3"><TD width="60%">When WASHINGTON team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Total is 9.5 </TD><TD align=middle>S/U5-6-0 </TD><TD align=middle>O/U2-9-0

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="98%" align=center bgColor=#000000 colspan="3"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff colspan="3"><TD class=extra1 align=middle>WASHINGTON </TD><TD width="60%">When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team - After a non division game - Playing on Tuesday - Before a non division game - Allowed 8 runs AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent </TD><TD align=middle>S/U 9-6-0

</TD><TD align=middle>O/U 3-12-0

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>