Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[roach23]

Another pitcher going tonight who is like light and dark with regards to pithcing D/N games...

Wainwright for STL. 5.74 career Day ERA. 2.23 career Night ERA.

 

[patswin]

Off topic but I found free past performances for the Oaks and Derby if anyone wants them. File opens in Adobe Acrobat

Kentucky Derby tomorrow

http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=CD&rd=05/05/2007&cty=USA&de=D&rn=10


Kentucky Oaks today 5:45 pm post

http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=CD&rd=05/04/2007&cty=USA&de=D&rn=10

 

[pops69]

Another pitcher going tonight who is like light and dark with regards to pithcing D/N games...

Wainwright for STL. 5.74 career Day ERA. 2.23 career Night ERA.

how's life in shy town treating you. i was out with mbb and one of his buddies from there and he wanted us to go to chig in the middle of summer and go to a few cubs games, we all just laughed. chig in mid summer, yea

stay out of trouble

 

[pops69]

Off topic but I found free past performances for the Oaks and Derby if anyone wants them. Not sure how to add links but you can copy and paste and open in browser if you want. File opens in Adobe Acrobat

Kentucky Derby tomorrow

http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=CD&rd=05/05/2007&cty=USA&de=D&rn=10


Kentucky Oaks today 5:45 pm post

http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetFreeFF.cfm?trk=CD&rd=05/04/2007&cty=USA&de=D&rn=10

you better look for horses that can run on a sloppy track on fake dirt

p.s. there are no off topics in this thread, anything goes

 

[roach23]

how's life in shy town treating you. i was out with mbb and one of his buddies from there and he wanted us to go to chig in the middle of summer and go to a few cubs games, we all just laughed. chig in mid summer, yea

stay out of trouble

going well. i like it much better. learning a lot and workign hard. i'm actually back in jersey for the weekend for a wedding. that's why i'm sitting around all day jerking off and capping some games.


Tomo Ohka for Toronto...also gives up almost an extra run in night games.

 

[patswin]

you better look for horses that can run on a sloppy track on fake dirt

I never bet much on the derby, 20 horses is not a race, its a stampede.
Pick a live longshot and hope for the best. Too many things can happen when they bunch up at the top of the backstretch

 

[pops69]

Ponder this while i go to the casino for BF and cash a couple GS tickets from last night

This the the odds for the fight tomorrow night, anyone should find the answer here. wonder what they want you to bet?

Osc Wins by KO, TKO or DQ +500
Osc Wins by Decision +250
May Win by KO, TKO DQ +450
May Wins by Dec -110
Draw +1400

back in less than 2

 

[cd329]

Ponder this while i go to the casino for BF and cash a couple GS tickets from last night

This the the odds for the fight tomorrow night, anyone should find the answer here. wonder what they want you to bet?

Osc Wins by KO, TKO or DQ +500
Osc Wins by Decision +250
May Win by KO, TKO DQ +450
May Wins by Dec -110
Draw +1400

back in less than 2

Pops, looks like they want everybody on Oscar, would that be correct?

also in one of your earlier posts you said to put 56 degrees in for the philly game. Do you mean change the 60 degrees that i see is already in the spreadsheet?

 

[cd329]

<TABLE height=260 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=595 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD background=http://images.covers.com/wagerline/brick_headers/blue_head_595.gif height=21>MLB LEAGUE TRENDS

</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=bottom cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left height=565><SELECT class=smtext2 id=ddlLastDays name=lastSelect> <OPTION value=/Handicapping/League-Trends.aspx?page=/pick-data/trends/mlb/season.html selected>Season to Date</OPTION> <OPTION value=/Handicapping/League-Trends.aspx?page=/pick-data/trends/mlb/season1.html>Previous Day</OPTION> <OPTION value=/Handicapping/League-Trends.aspx?page=/pick-data/trends/mlb/season7.html>Last 7 Days</OPTION> <OPTION value=/Handicapping/League-Trends.aspx?page=/pick-data/trends/mlb/season30.html>Last 30 Days</OPTION> <OPTION value=/Handicapping/League-Trends.aspx?page=/pick-data/trends/mlb/season60.html>Last 60 Days</OPTION> <OPTION value=/Handicapping/League-Trends.aspx?page=/pick-data/trends/mlb/season90.html>Last 90 Days</OPTION> <OPTION value=/Handicapping/League-Trends.aspx?page=/pick-data/trends/mlb/season120.html>Last 120 Days</OPTION> <OPTION value=/Handicapping/League-Trends.aspx?page=/pick-data/trends/mlb/season150.html>Last 150 Days</OPTION> <OPTION value=/Handicapping/League-Trends.aspx?page=/pick-data/trends/mlb/season180.html>Last 180 Days</OPTION></SELECT>
Season to Date

Straight Up (Won Loss)

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="50%">Category</TD><TD width="25%">Record</TD><TD width="25%">Percent</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Away Teams</TD><TD class=datacell>200-209</TD><TD class=datacell>48.90%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Home Teams</TD><TD class=datacell>209-200</TD><TD class=datacell>51.10%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Favorites</TD><TD class=datacell>235-167</TD><TD class=datacell>58.46%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Dogs</TD><TD class=datacell>167-235</TD><TD class=datacell>41.54%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Away Favorites</TD><TD class=datacell>74-45</TD><TD class=datacell>62.18%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Away Dogs</TD><TD class=datacell>122-161</TD><TD class=datacell>43.11%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Home Favorites</TD><TD class=datacell>161-122</TD><TD class=datacell>56.89%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Home Dogs</TD><TD class=datacell>45-74</TD><TD class=datacell>37.82%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Against The Spread (ATS)

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="50%">Category</TD><TD width="25%">Record</TD><TD width="25%">Percent</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Away Teams</TD><TD class=datacell>237-172</TD><TD class=datacell>57.95%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Home Teams</TD><TD class=datacell>172-237</TD><TD class=datacell>42.05%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Favorites</TD><TD class=datacell>167-242</TD><TD class=datacell>40.83%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Dogs</TD><TD class=datacell>242-167</TD><TD class=datacell>59.17%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Away Favorites</TD><TD class=datacell>50-55</TD><TD class=datacell>47.62%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Away Dogs</TD><TD class=datacell>187-117</TD><TD class=datacell>61.51%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Home Favorites</TD><TD class=datacell>117-187</TD><TD class=datacell>38.49%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Home Dogs</TD><TD class=datacell>55-50</TD><TD class=datacell>52.38%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Over vs. Under

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD>Category</TD><TD>Overs</TD><TD>Percent</TD><TD>Unders</TD><TD>Percent</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Extra Inning Games</TD><TD class=datacell>16</TD><TD class=datacell>43.24%</TD><TD class=datacell>21</TD><TD class=datacell>56.76%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Non-Extra Inning Games</TD><TD class=datacell>170</TD><TD class=datacell>49.42%</TD><TD class=datacell>174</TD><TD class=datacell>50.58%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>All Games</TD><TD class=datacell>186</TD><TD class=datacell>48.82%</TD><TD class=datacell>195</TD><TD class=datacell>51.18%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[cd329]

righty vs lefty


vs. Lefties

<TABLE class=grey_1><TBODY><TR><TD>Devil Rays</TD><TD>5-3</TD><TD>+4.95</TD></TR><TR><TD>Red Sox</TD><TD>6-1</TD><TD>+4.79</TD></TR><TR><TD>Padres</TD><TD>5-2</TD><TD>+3.38</TD></TR><TR><TD>Brewers</TD><TD>6-3</TD><TD>+3.06</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mets</TD><TD>5-1</TD><TD>+3.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tigers</TD><TD>5-2</TD><TD>+2.76</TD></TR><TR><TD>Giants</TD><TD>5-3</TD><TD>+2.21</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mariners</TD><TD>3-2</TD><TD>+1.35</TD></TR><TR><TD>Pirates</TD><TD>4-3</TD><TD>+1.19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Athletics</TD><TD>5-4</TD><TD>+1.07</TD></TR><TR><TD>Nationals</TD><TD>4-6</TD><TD>+1.07</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dodgers</TD><TD>5-4</TD><TD>+0.27</TD></TR><TR><TD>Blue Jays</TD><TD>5-5</TD><TD>-0.37</TD></TR><TR><TD>White Sox</TD><TD>3-4</TD><TD>-0.64</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cardinals</TD><TD>4-4</TD><TD>-0.68</TD></TR><TR><TD>Rangers</TD><TD>3-4</TD><TD>-1.05</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cubs</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>-1.37</TD></TR><TR><TD>Angels</TD><TD>2-3</TD><TD>-1.40</TD></TR><TR><TD>Orioles</TD><TD>4-6</TD><TD>-1.67</TD></TR><TR><TD>Diamondbacks</TD><TD>3-5</TD><TD>-2.42</TD></TR><TR><TD>Indians</TD><TD>2-5</TD><TD>-2.52</TD></TR><TR><TD>Braves</TD><TD>6-8</TD><TD>-3.66</TD></TR><TR><TD>Yankees</TD><TD>2-4</TD><TD>-3.89</TD></TR><TR><TD>Phillies</TD><TD>3-7</TD><TD>-3.98</TD></TR><TR><TD>Twins</TD><TD>5-7</TD><TD>-3.98</TD></TR><TR><TD>Reds</TD><TD>4-9</TD><TD>-4.29</TD></TR><TR><TD>Marlins</TD><TD>2-6</TD><TD>-4.48</TD></TR><TR><TD>Rockies</TD><TD>1-6</TD><TD>-5.30</TD></TR><TR><TD>Royals</TD><TD>0-6</TD><TD>-6.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>Astros</TD><TD>2-7</TD><TD>-6.64</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
vs. Righties

<TABLE class=grey_1><TBODY><TR><TD>Indians</TD><TD>15-3</TD><TD>+11.54</TD></TR><TR><TD>Braves</TD><TD>11-2</TD><TD>+7.64</TD></TR><TR><TD>Brewers</TD><TD>12-7</TD><TD>+4.97</TD></TR><TR><TD>Dodgers</TD><TD>12-7</TD><TD>+3.70</TD></TR><TR><TD>Marlins</TD><TD>11-8</TD><TD>+3.57</TD></TR><TR><TD>Twins</TD><TD>10-6</TD><TD>+3.56</TD></TR><TR><TD>Reds</TD><TD>9-6</TD><TD>+3.24</TD></TR><TR><TD>Angels</TD><TD>14-10</TD><TD>+3.19</TD></TR><TR><TD>Astros</TD><TD>10-8</TD><TD>+2.37</TD></TR><TR><TD>Diamondbacks</TD><TD>13-9</TD><TD>+2.30</TD></TR><TR><TD>Red Sox</TD><TD>12-8</TD><TD>+1.85</TD></TR><TR><TD>Rockies</TD><TD>10-11</TD><TD>+1.00</TD></TR><TR><TD>Phillies</TD><TD>10-8</TD><TD>+0.33</TD></TR><TR><TD>Royals</TD><TD>10-13</TD><TD>+0.30</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tigers</TD><TD>11-9</TD><TD>+0.14</TD></TR><TR><TD>Pirates</TD><TD>9-11</TD><TD>-0.18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Giants</TD><TD>9-10</TD><TD>-0.33</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mariners</TD><TD>9-9</TD><TD>-0.75</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mets</TD><TD>12-9</TD><TD>-0.84</TD></TR><TR><TD>Orioles</TD><TD>8-10</TD><TD>-0.87</TD></TR><TR><TD>White Sox</TD><TD>9-9</TD><TD>-0.97</TD></TR><TR><TD>Devil Rays</TD><TD>8-12</TD><TD>-1.89</TD></TR><TR><TD>Athletics</TD><TD>8-10</TD><TD>-2.70</TD></TR><TR><TD>Blue Jays</TD><TD>8-10</TD><TD>-2.74</TD></TR><TR><TD>Nationals</TD><TD>5-13</TD><TD>-3.35</TD></TR><TR><TD>Padres</TD><TD>10-11</TD><TD>-3.88</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cubs</TD><TD>11-12</TD><TD>-4.73</TD></TR><TR><TD>Yankees</TD><TD>10-10</TD><TD>-5.18</TD></TR><TR><TD>Cardinals</TD><TD>6-12</TD><TD>-5.82</TD></TR><TR><TD>Rangers</TD><TD>7-14</TD><TD>-7.72</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[cd329]

Washington Nationals (9-19) vs. Chicago Cubs (12-14)
J.Bergmann(R) vs. C.Zambrano(R)
Odds

The odds at Bodog.com are: Chicago Cubs (-213) / Washington Nationals (195).
The Washington Nationals are a heavy underdog in this game.
Home/Away/Overall Moneyline Records

The Chicago Cubs have a 4-9 record at home this season.
The Washington Nationals have a 5-9 record on the road this season.
The Chicago Cubs are 12-14 on the season.
The Washington Nationals are 9-19 on the season.
Game Characteristics

This is a non-divisional rivalry game.
The Chicago Cubs have a 2-2 record in non-divisional rivalry games.
The Washington Nationals have a 1-6 record in non-divisional rivalry games.
This is the first game of the series.
Chicago Cubs - Batting

The Chicago Cubs are averaging 5.00 runs per game over their L3 games.
5.43 R/G L7 games.
4.95 R/G L20 games.
4.81 R/G overall.
Against righties, the Chicago Cubs are 11-12 on the season.
Chicago Cubs - Pitching

The Chicago Cubs are allowing 3.00 runs per game over their L3 games.
2.86 R/G L7 games.
3.55 R/G L20 games.
3.73 R/G overall.
Washington Nationals - Batting

The Washington Nationals are averaging 2.00 runs per game over their L3 games.
2.29 R/G L7 games.
3.30 R/G L20 games.
3.00 R/G overall.
Against righties, the Washington Nationals are 4-6 on the season.
Washington Nationals - Pitching

The Washington Nationals are allowing 4.00 runs per game over their L3 games.
3.43 R/G L7 games.
4.65 R/G L20 games.
5.21 R/G overall.

 

[pops69]

Pops, looks like they want everybody on Oscar, would that be correct?

also in one of your earlier posts you said to put 56 degrees in for the philly game. Do you mean change the 60 degrees that i see is already in the spreadsheet?

BATR

they want you to bet everything other than may

yes change the 60 to 56 if you want, it will be corrected in the next update

 

[pops69]

I got this from GP (my trainer friend that’s coming to vegas tomorrow)
Derby handicapping is morphing in a hurry. Horses are not the same and are being trained differently.
Every day, we use history to handicap horse races. But we must be adaptable, or risk the fate of houreplayers who still refuse to play horses away from the races 21 days or more.
The Guide to Derby Rules:
The one about geldings. Forget it. With today’s wacked out stud fees, no one gelds a horse he considers a Derby contender. But if a gelding like Funny Cide beats the odds and makes it to the Derby, judge him by performance and not reproductive potential. Derby horses may run naked, but won’t suffer equipment envy.
The one about Needles’ 1956 five-week layoff. Tricky. It isn’t the layoff that matters. Five weeks is nothing. The key is the reason for the gap. For horses like Barbaro who ran in the Florida Derby, the answer is obvious. Don’t worry about it. But legitimate cause for concern are those like Circular Quary, with less-understandable schedules. Remember even straight-shooting trainers are loath to be truthful about physical problems of Derby horses.
The one about two Derby preps. Depends. One horse (Sunny’s Halo) since 1947 has won the Derby with fewer than three 3-year-old prep races. Street Sense, Great Hunter and Circular Quary fall into this category. As recent as the 1990s, horses raced with such frequency that two-prep campaigns could automatically be discounted as lost causes due to a bad wheel or serious sickness that cost training time. And that’s the real issue – training time, not prep schedule. To combat the fragility of today’s racehorses, trainers are gradually trending toward a less-is-more approach to preps. But bringing a horse to 10 furlongs the first Saturday in May requires a demanding regimen, and a combination of fewer preps and missed training time spells trouble.
Even today, when a trainer announces a two-prep schedule, 75 percent of the time the reason is physical. Be skeptical, but if you conclude that your horse falls into the other 25%, plunge ahead.
The one about Apollo. Rooted in common sense. Every Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 raced as a 2-year-old. All owners prefer to run horses as juveniles at least once or twice, so January first-timers normally have been beset with ailments. Plus, they are behind others in conditioning. Even if sheer talent takes them to the Big Show, they are disadvantaged. It isn’t seasoning. Seasoning is for steaks. Again, it’s training time.
The one about Wyoming-breds prepping in Arizona. It’s the individual horse, not birthplace or prep route. If Matz had decided on the WinStar Derby six weeks out as a final prep, do you really think Barbaro would have lost the Kentucky Derby? Keep this in mind the next time Godolphin has another Dubai Millennium.
The one about Todd Pletcher. At one point, Wayne Lukas couldn’t win the Derby. He currently has four trophies. Now Pletcher supposedly can’t win it. A decade from now, he’ll own three and possibly more.
With a more open-minded approach, you can focus on finding the best horse. The Derby is a horse race, not a Magical Mystery Tour. But one rule hasn’t changed: the Kentucky Derby is the most difficult sporting event in the world to predict. And the fewer times the horses run, the tougher it gets.
pops: A bunch of this applies to almost every sport you bet, so try not to have an pre existing "opinion" let the numbers and data be your guide and may the force be with you

 

[CapNWatch]

Thanks CSD...interesting that home dogs only close to 38 percent to start the season.

 

[BillDildeaux]

Pops so why does your buddy like Curlin if he is disadvantaged not racing as a 2 year old? Tks

 

[pops69]

Pops so why does your buddy like Curlin if he is disadvantaged not racing as a 2 year old? Tks

i dont know what GP comments means regarding Curlin below it the exact comment from the email i received. GP knows i dont know shit about capping the ponies, so i'm not sure, but will find out tomorrow

"Did u see that Cobalt Blue is out and Curlin is in pp 2? The race looks wide, wide open......gp"

 

[punter]

For several years I was heavy into horses until all that handicaping time started cutting into my drinking and chasing time.
I hated these "classic" races especially the derby. There is so much ink on them that it is hard to find a angle that has not been explored and revealed in print to the great unwashed so guys who cannot read a racing form are on practically on even footing with the pros also every track and simulcast parlor are packed.

 

[cd329]

cubs umpire

Umpires: HP: Dan Iassogna. 1B: Ron Kulpa. 2B: Dale Scott. 3B: Paul Emmel.
Weather: 60 degrees, cloudy.
Wind: 12 mph, In from CF.



this comes from mlb.com, but it cant be right. these guys are supposed to be in milwaukee.
unless mlb is screwing with us, lollllllllll

 

[roach23]

cubs umpire

Umpires: HP: Dan Iassogna. 1B: Ron Kulpa. 2B: Dale Scott. 3B: Paul Emmel.
Weather: 60 degrees, cloudy.
Wind: 12 mph, In from CF.



this comes from mlb.com, but it cant be right. these guys are supposed to be in milwaukee.
unless mlb is screwing with us, lollllllllll

usa today has the same crew listed

 

[roach23]

here is what i'm taking today....could change based on umps

padres over
yanks over
indians over
bosox under
royals under