Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[roach23]

Fellas...I know most of us look at how certain teams are on the O/U in day and night games. Lots of teams have a certain trend where they're an over team during the day and under at night (and some vice versa).

I came across an article this weekend that you might wanna take into consideration when capping your games...i forget where i read it but here is the basic jist...

Philly pitcher Cole Hamels has been getting rocked in day games and has been lights out pitching at night. His day ERA is 5.71, 1.67 WHIP (3 starts). His night ERA is 0.56, 0.75 (2 starts).

For his career in day games he has a 5.92 ERA, 1.75 WHIP (12 starts). And career night games: 2.70 ERA, 1.04 WHIP (16 starts).

He's only in his 2nd year so this is still a small sample size...but its something to keep in mind. The guy who wrote the article posed that one of the main reasons for this is that Hamels' out pitch is his change up (which is filthy when his game is on)...and its easier for batters to pick up when it's brighter out and they can see the ball better.

I don't know if there are more pitchers who have such disparities in day vs night starts...but it might be something to look into more.

Pops if you remember, could you as MBB what he thinks about this as well?

 

[tbonestk]

LOS-ARI falls into Holly Fuck OVER

That's one of the OVER plays that pops mentioned yesterday (like Detroit today)

 

[bullets]

Playing the Rockets game over 92.5. 1/2 point moves up at my book have done well. Not a big play, just enough to maybe buy a beer later tonight.

 

[mlfp]

3-0 in early games, LAD to go tonight. Headed to get some good Mexican food, GL all

 

[bullets]

3-0 in early games, LAD to go tonight. Headed to get some good Mexican food, GL all

Dodgers for me too, got +107. Could probably wait longer and get a better number but I have to leave for a few too.

GL to us.

 

[shale]

Fellas...I know most of us look at how certain teams are on the O/U in day and night games. Lots of teams have a certain trend where they're an over team during the day and under at night (and some vice versa).

I came across an article this weekend that you might wanna take into consideration when capping your games...i forget where i read it but here is the basic jist...

Philly pitcher Cole Hamels has been getting rocked in day games and has been lights out pitching at night. His day ERA is 5.71, 1.67 WHIP (3 starts). His night ERA is 0.56, 0.75 (2 starts).

For his career in day games he has a 5.92 ERA, 1.75 WHIP (12 starts). And career night games: 2.70 ERA, 1.04 WHIP (16 starts).

He's only in his 2nd year so this is still a small sample size...but its something to keep in mind. The guy who wrote the article posed that one of the main reasons for this is that Hamels' out pitch is his change up (which is filthy when his game is on)...and its easier for batters to pick up when it's brighter out and they can see the ball better.

I don't know if there are more pitchers who have such disparities in day vs night starts...but it might be something to look into more.

Pops if you remember, could you as MBB what he thinks about this as well?

roach.....real easy to find this out couple of day/nite pitchers that are awesome and not so good that come off the top of my head are, Freddy Garcia
Game Conditions


I Split G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+ Day 86 86 0 48 15 0 5 0 570 3.49 530 235 221 63 186 13 393 18 Night 169 168 0 69 57 0 7 4 1088 4.30 1073 549 520 131 347 15 826 36 Open 217 216 0 99 59 0 11 4 1430.2 3.89 1361 657 618 163 456 23 1054 44 Dome 38 38 0 18 13 0 1 0 227.1 4.87 242 127 123 31 77 5 165 10 Grass 222 221 0 101 60 0 11 4 1465 3.86 1392 668 628 168 465 24 1081 44 Artif. Turf 33 33 0 16 12 0 1 0 193 5.27 211 116 113 26 68 4 138 10 </PRE>


Josh Beckett
Game Conditions


I Split G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+ Day 40 39 0 20 8 0 1 1 237.2 3.48 196 104 92 20 96 3 228 7 Night 104 102 1 42 37 0 2 1 608.2 3.92 551 292 265 72 208 9 565 21 Open 133 131 0 59 40 0 3 2 786.2 3.78 686 364 330 81 285 12 738 25 Dome 11 10 1 3 5 0 0 0 59.2 4.07 61 32 27 11 19 0 55 3 Grass 132 131 0 60 41 0 3 2 784.1 3.78 690 365 329 78 286 12 734 22 Artif. Turf 12 10 1 2 4 0 0 0 62 4.06 57 31 28 14 18 0 59 6 </PRE>
Ted Lilly</PRE>
Game Conditions


I Split G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+ Day 66 57 2 13 20 0 1 1 324.2 5.02 322 198 181 41 135 10 305 10 Night 124 108 3 48 40 0 3 1 644.1 4.26 607 322 305 104 252 6 527 25 Open 155 134 4 49 49 0 3 2 782.1 4.65 770 433 404 113 303 12 673 27 Dome 35 31 1 12 11 0 1 0 186.2 3.95 159 87 82 32 84 4 159 8 Grass 125 108 3 33 42 0 2 1 620 4.72 603 348 325 95 240 9 514 23 Artif. Turf 65 57 2 28 18 0 2 1 349 4.15 326 172 161 50 147 7 318 12 </PRE>
</PRE>
Cole Hamels splits</PRE>
Game Conditions


I Split G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+ Day 12 12 0 3 5 0 0 0 62.1 5.92 71 46 41 9 28 3 62 3 Night 16 16 0 8 4 0 1 0 103.1 2.70 78 33 31 13 29 2 120 1 Open 25 25 0 9 9 0 1 0 146 4.01 138 72 65 21 47 5 164 3 Dome 3 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 19.2 3.20 11 7 7 1 10 0 18 1 Grass 28 28 0 11 9 0 1 0 165.2 3.91 149 79 72 22 57 5 182 4 </PRE>
</PRE>
just to name three real quick for you</PRE>
website: below</PRE>
http://www.baseball-reference.com/</PRE>
then click on players.....</PRE>
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players.shtml</PRE>
choose your player.....ie freddy garcia</PRE>
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/garcifr03.shtml</PRE>
once you have gotten to freddy garcia page then click on to splits</PRE>
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=garcifr03</PRE>
after clicking splits go about 3/4 the page down and it will break down your splits on day/nite/dome/grass..etc</PRE>
</PRE>


sorry that paste job did not do very good......just follow those links and you can come up with splits for every single player, situation and what not....

 

[roach23]

yea shale...yahoo has the same feature when you go to the player's page.

 

[FennisDembo]

excel 2007

Did anybody try that office 2007 link from canabiz? did it work? I downloaded it and got at RAR archive that winzip does not recognize.

 

[bunbury]

yes, i was able to use canabiz' link...no problems

download winrar and give it a go. winrar.com

 

[presscoverage]

Did anybody try that office 2007 link from canabiz? did it work? I downloaded it and got at RAR archive that winzip does not recognize.

Just finished about 10 minutes ago. No problems at all.

PC

 

[punter]

Pop's
When you reported the Rocks triple play yesterday, you didnt say it was an unassisted triple play, only the 13th in MLB history.

 

[bullets]

Playing the Spurs over 96.5. Another 1/2 point move up at the book.

How about those Dodgers?

 

[pops69]

BATR

another perfect day in vegas land. one think i didnt want tonight was OT on that denv game, perfect the way it was for both game and 2nd half

below is the pdws for tomorrow, and all updates will be sent to geppi soon. just for roach added a day night thing pivot for the ball park, yes roach, and mbb agrees there is a big diff pitching day vs night and many pitchers do much better one way other the other

nite all, back at you in the morning

p.s. remember all era are now ytd home and away and will be that way the rest of the year. a bunch of big OL numbers that are way to high

 

[pops69]

Pop's
When you reported the Rocks triple play yesterday, you didnt say it was an unassisted triple play, only the 13th in MLB history.

i thought it was assisted, he caught the ball and the runner left 2nd base and he tagged him, and the runner ran from 1st base to 2nd so he could tag him as well. so didnt they help and assist him?

 

[ILMW]

i thought it was assisted, he caught the ball and the runner left 2nd base and he tagged him, and the runner ran from 1st base to 2nd so he could tag him as well. so didnt they help and assist him?

Thats pretty impressive. Pops did you see it as I am sure you were around for the first un-assisted triple play back in the day.

 

[FennisDembo]

sommething funny going on In the PDWS that was emailed...

Tony Armas era is 5.03, should be 11.57

Adam lowen whip is 1.845 should be 1.73

Aj burnett whip is 1.563 should be 1.393

E jackson whip 1.667 should be 1.74, ponson whip 2.54 should be 2.06

k loe whip is .750 should be 1.220

greinke whip is 1.583 should be 1.519 colon whip is 1.277 should be .857

wasburn/vazquez whips are 1.30 and 1.677, should be 1.208 and 1.061 respectively

ERA's seem to be correct.

 

[spesh]

angle on teams leaving colo goes to 5-0 with atl win yest...heres my 2 cents and could be wrong .. when runners etc are in training for a big race normally they train in high altitudes to build up stamina and blood cells...then when they are at reg elevation for a short time after being exposed to the high altitude they tend to tire at a slower rate from the stamina built up and blood cells...maybe these teams leaving colo are experiencing the same vs what the article ATL posted yest (smoltz comments).....a thouhgt ..any others chime in?

 

[spesh]

angle on teams leaving colo goes to 5-0 with atl win yest...heres my 2 cents and could be wrong .. when runners etc are in training for a big race normally they train in high altitudes to build up stamina and blood cells...then when they are at reg elevation for a short time after being exposed to the high altitude they tend to tire at a slower rate from the stamina built up and blood cells...maybe these teams leaving colo are experiencing the same vs what the article ATL posted yest (smoltz comments).....a thouhgt ..any others chime in?

SOME SUPPORTING INFO...will 3 or 4 days have any effect tho? possibly?

How does Training at High Altitudes Improve Oxygen Delivery to Muscles?

In high altitudes, the amount of oxygen in the blood is reduced because there's less oxygen in the air. To compensate for reduction of oxygen in the air, the kidneys secrete more of a hormone called erythropoietin, which causes the body to create more red blood cells.
The average life span of a red blood cell is 90 to 120 days. Runners are often able to train harder and perform better for several weeks after they return from about a month-long stay at altitude because their blood still contains the extra blood cells that were produced when they were training at high altitudes. Runners who trained at high altitudes will have more red blood cells than runners who did not train at high altitudes.

 

[pops69]

Tuesday May 1st

may day

morning all

era's etc, at the beginning of the year when we were looking for a source to pull pitchers names and era's from no sites were available to look at for data formatting etc except statfox.

pitcher naming is one of the most important aspects of gathering the data, as just one letter in the way the name is spelled in either the 1st or last name creats a complete new pitcher

i think it's a good idea to look at other sources like maybe google or mlb.com and see if the data is way off etc.

the key place we use this info is in the pdws, which is posted here, so if anyone see major errors just post them and and replace the data in that sheet and create a form for the game avg era and game whip

let me get some stars and start checking myself

 

[pops69]

sommething funny going on In the PDWS that was emailed...

Tony Armas era is 5.03, should be 11.57

Adam lowen whip is 1.845 should be 1.73

Aj burnett whip is 1.563 should be 1.393

E jackson whip 1.667 should be 1.74, ponson whip 2.54 should be 2.06

k loe whip is .750 should be 1.220

greinke whip is 1.583 should be 1.519 colon whip is 1.277 should be .857

wasburn/vazquez whips are 1.30 and 1.677, should be 1.208 and 1.061 respectively

ERA's seem to be correct.

check my #4480 post on this subject. i know that the big diff is in the naming of armas, tony vs in our data base it's armas, jr so might be under two diff pitchers either in statfox or source your using. all my whip numbers are auto download directly into my pdws right b4 i run the master for the post