Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[pops69]

ok, here the scoop for today, it's not even 8am here in vegas and i already got the call HP opens today, so i prob be heading to the casino around noon with jake the snake for opening day

that not going to leave me much time, so let me get my ass in gear and see if anything looks good or where the money is flowing

later

 

[ILMW]

Thanks pops, that says enough for me.

 

[pops69]

Thanks pops, that says enough for me.

no prob, just remember that pinny is the primary OS where the Scalp money goes, which does not mean they are on the correct side or ov/un, they are just getting down 40 or 50k early so that they can come back and scalp a number the other way later. daw and i do this all the time ourself, they try not to have money at risk, get an early good number and go the other way when it's where you need it to be to win on both sides

 

[patswin]

Pops I have a question about what one os is doing and what another one is oding. Here is a question right now Pinny has cubs total at over 6.5 -126 under 6.5 +116 and betjam has the same line as over 7 -105 and under 7 -115, why such the difference and what side would pinny be leaning on in this instance? Do they offset like this for a reason? thanks.

ILMW alot of times books will adjust the juice on totals and leave the number the same, like pops said just depends on the action they are getting. Books don't like to move the number on totals much. I posted this last night, it can be helpful in determining what number to play at like the example you listed above. In this case, Pinny is charging -126 for the over 6.5 while betjam is at 7 -105. So you if you like the over it will cost you an extra 21 cents to bet it over 6.5 at Pinny than 7 at betjam.

on/off 8/10 is worth 15 cents

on/off the 7/9 is worth 25 cents

rule of thumb...even totals worth between 15 and 18 cents with the higher even totals being worth more.

rule of thumb...odd totals worth between 23 and 28 cents with the lower numbers being worth more.

Thus 9'o even is better than 9o -130 by just a tiny bit.

OVR 8' +130 is worlds better than OVR 8 EVEN.

Hope this helps

 

[sinatrac]

Rpw

Mets 61 p/cldy 7 in from cen
Cub 51 30& rain HEAVY 21 in from r/c-3b dug
Cle 52 30% rain 12 in from r/c-3b dug
B)
Fla 81 s 14 in r/c-3b dug
Phlly 64 30% rain 9 in from c
Pit 57 90% RAIN
St lou 67 40% rain 10 in to 3rd b from r/f cor
Az 89 s 8 out to lfcorner from 1st...open?
Lad 68 p/cldy
Bal 62 80% RAIN
Nyy 61 30% rain (few showers)
Wsx 49 40& rain HEAVY wind 20 in l/f cor-1b
Oak 60 p/cldy 13 out to r/cen
Laa 70 p/cldy...GL

 

[pops69]

at this point in time almost everyone that has the spreadsheet should be up to speed with respect to the use of the pivot tables and how to ask questions and get your results below

i do have a little time if any q&a. no way you can break the tables

just remember to always start at the top level ALL, which is normally the way i send them out unless i was doing some drilling myself and didnt rest them to all, but you can easily see that

you always want to see the specific effect on a day/night or with respect to line moves al/nl etc. dont drill to far with respect to a specific situation as the data is really distorted and in my opinion useless. eg. cubs, day, 3 game of a series and use those numbers. too small of a sample to make a big diff. now it ok to use the all first and than do 3rd game of a series and see if the number goes up or down etc to see what the overall pattern is doing for game play

post em if you got em

 

[pops69]

Mets 61 p/cldy 7 in from cen
Cub 51 30& rain HEAVY 21 in from r/c-3b dug
Cle 52 30% rain 12 in from r/c-3b dug
B)
Fla 81 s 14 in r/c-3b dug
Phlly 64 30% rain 9 in from c
Pit 57 90% RAIN
St lou 67 40% rain 10 in to 3rd b from r/f cor
Az 89 s 8 out to lfcorner from 1st...open?
Lad 68 p/cldy
Bal 62 80% RAIN
Nyy 61 30% rain (few showers)
Wsx 49 40& rain HEAVY wind 20 in l/f cor-1b
Oak 60 p/cldy 13 out to r/cen
Laa 70 p/cldy...GL

sin, you have prob been to a bunch of cubs games, is rf wind as good or bad as lf wind?

 

[bullets]

Bullets whats ure email again?

Can you ask a mod for it? I don't want to post it on here.


ASU, your not behind bars are you with this Phoenix bust?

"One guy had bet2win on his license plates. He just lost."

 

[pops69]

already down on TB ov, only action so far

will try to bang out a couple more b4 i leave

 

[sinatrac]

sin, you have prob been to a bunch of cubs games, is rf wind as good or bad as lf wind?

That east/ne and is the typical wind for a cold/rainy day like today here. I would expect it to effect fly balls to right and center.

 

[Ruleof72]

pops, i know there are 5-6 things that you look for when using the pivots, what are those progressions. hm/away, d/n, l/r pitch, ump etc., as i look at the games, what should be the key pivots to use. ex: cubs/home/day/lpitch, then look at the umps etc.?

 

[pops69]

pops, i know there are 5-6 things that you look for when using the pivots, what are those progressions. hm/away, d/n, l/r pitch, ump etc., as i look at the games, what should be the key pivots to use. ex: cubs/home/day/lpitch, then look at the umps etc.?

all of them have value in some aspect of each game, but the key data is in the wa nps col CE thru CK, cpt is finishing the projections off of that data. so when you look at that data it will show a summary of the games that have the greatest chances of going over or un (60/40 40/60)

it's highly doubtful that you will have more than 3 games on any give day, even with a full schedule that will show up as possible plays

so if only a few games no reason that you dont take a quick look in each of the pivots as see if something is not right. would you bet the cubs over or under w/o checking the wind speed and direction. so why not check the other items quickly as well. with the way the sheets are setup it does not take all that long. most of you prob spend more time reading a bunch of useless post on someone's coin flips, why, he doesnt have a clue, prob some fucken cab driver from india that got the play from one of his passengers who was in the back seat flipping coins. you have as much data at our finger tips as the odds makers do, and can get at any of it in a few seconds, so use it

 

[EX-BALLPLAYER]

Wind now ene 8-12 at Shea, thats out to right.

 

[BillDildeaux]

Pops lets say that you like the Mets Ova today and then you look at the ump B Welke (who looks like a solid under ump). Would that ump be enough to knock you off your play. Tks

 

[asudevil88]

Can you ask a mod for it? I don't want to post it on here.


ASU, your not behind bars are you with this Phoenix bust?

"One guy had bet2win on his license plates. He just lost."

Not yet anyway. I have been to many of the bars they raided tho. I'm not a big roller like the rest of you guys. I guess this was tied to the mob as well. At least that is what they are saying here.

 

[pops69]

Pops lets say that you like the Mets Ova today and then you look at the ump B Welke (who looks like a solid under ump). Would that ump be enough to knock you off your play. Tks

other than e & h an ump does not determine any of my plays. but if i looking at a play and the ump is the complete opposite of the way i want to bet, unless i have any strong reasons otherwise i lay off the game. someone already asked me about the mets over, and i personally dont see it. roc hit like shit, no power, so mets will need to do all the scoring, plus the number is being bet to the over, if it goes to 9- i'm an under bettor on this game based on nl plus .5 line move alone in the NL

 

[EX-BALLPLAYER]

Fogg has been lit up by Mets in last 3 app., has not made it out of 5th. Also like the Mets to win, and run line.

 

[pops69]

Fogg has been lit up by Mets in last 3 app., has not made it out of 5th. Also like the Mets to win, and run line.

although i dont like the RL on a home team because of the walk off HR, that might be a better bet than the over

 

[mlfp]

Passing on the first two today. Probably won't get the M's spreadsheet done for today, gotta work a Seahawks presser for FSN. Back some time today, we'll see. GL

 

[ILMW]

mets at 9.5 now, taking the under, good luck all.