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Question for the board.
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsbettingresearch/betagainst/mlb_betting_statistics_2006.aspx
What do you guys think about articles like this? Is there accurate data being represented here?
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsbettingresearch/betagainst/mlb_betting_statistics_2006.aspx
What do you guys think about articles like this? Is there accurate data being represented here?
more of a question bullets since I know you are the man and are tracking this.
but in my calculations, fading the steam in the 2H last week, which is what you're doing, has done very poorly. again correct me if I'm wrong, I only spent about 1/2 hour reviewing the data. I'm talking 1 point moves or more.
in my experience it is very sharp money moving those 2H lines, or syndicate plays. I include this threads 2H plays as syndicate/sharp money because the lines are clearly moving with us by a point or more...
but in my calculations, fading the steam in the 2H last week, which is what you're doing, has done very poorly. again correct me if I'm wrong, I only spent about 1/2 hour reviewing the data. I'm talking 1 point moves or more.
in my experience it is very sharp money moving those 2H lines, or syndicate plays. I include this threads 2H plays as syndicate/sharp money because the lines are clearly moving with us by a point or more...
You are correct. I only fade 3 point line moves downward (downward being the key) and if the game is low scoring at the half (I don't have an exact percentage) I play the 2nd half over.
I have won almost every week doing this. I was up this week too until the last 3 days where now I am down a little.
I will still fade 3 point line moves but if I get a couple of low scoring teams playing, I will not play the full game and hit the halftime over if there is any value.
Just a side note. Playing the under on reverse 20pt plays has been doing well.
Playing NBA overs is a tough business with these chumps fumbling around the ball, missing layups and freethrows. These plays have made me pretty good money this year but it is now time to be more selective.
G.m.
Good Morning Fellas and Ladies (Roach)
Below is a link for some good reading material if anyone needs to get caught up. The reading material will be all important posts as it was in the college forum and it will be posted twice a week in case anyone needs to get caught up on anything. Better take my own advice and keep re-reading it because I still am lost on a few things.
http://download.yousendit.com/C4C7550F3CE58508
Good Morning Fellas and Ladies (Roach)
Below is a link for some good reading material if anyone needs to get caught up. The reading material will be all important posts as it was in the college forum and it will be posted twice a week in case anyone needs to get caught up on anything. Better take my own advice and keep re-reading it because I still am lost on a few things.
http://download.yousendit.com/C4C7550F3CE58508
Friday March 30th Work and Get Ready for MLB Day
morning all. good new bad news. nick fantana and i had one hell of a time trying to get the pdws working on open office, prob spend 10 times more just trying to fix the open office issues vs doing the mlb pdws for the 1st two days. in the end we got a older version working. but the good news he installed office 2003 with the 2007 converters and it worked w/o any problems. my suggestions is that if you going to be working with the data this year d/l the pdws asap and see if you can get it working. if not dont ask me, talk with nick, i have enough problems w/o more
also on the bad news front the 1st shot and conbining the master with the popsummary and wa nps was a bomb, data not even close to matching, so back to the drawing board. time is flying by, the fall back plan would be same as last year, but than i'm stuck with 20 plus hours of work per day and leaves little time for capping.
opening ov/un numbers are up, later today i go over the hightlights of my 2 hours discussion with the people that make the lines for MLB
good news, won detroit game, and much better is that the tech guy from the casino here fixed me up and the setup is near perfect. couple of cables to re run and hid, but everything is working great
going to the casino for bf, should be back in less than 2
morning all. good new bad news. nick fantana and i had one hell of a time trying to get the pdws working on open office, prob spend 10 times more just trying to fix the open office issues vs doing the mlb pdws for the 1st two days. in the end we got a older version working. but the good news he installed office 2003 with the 2007 converters and it worked w/o any problems. my suggestions is that if you going to be working with the data this year d/l the pdws asap and see if you can get it working. if not dont ask me, talk with nick, i have enough problems w/o more
also on the bad news front the 1st shot and conbining the master with the popsummary and wa nps was a bomb, data not even close to matching, so back to the drawing board. time is flying by, the fall back plan would be same as last year, but than i'm stuck with 20 plus hours of work per day and leaves little time for capping.
opening ov/un numbers are up, later today i go over the hightlights of my 2 hours discussion with the people that make the lines for MLB
good news, won detroit game, and much better is that the tech guy from the casino here fixed me up and the setup is near perfect. couple of cables to re run and hid, but everything is working great
going to the casino for bf, should be back in less than 2
BATR
there i was at breakfast just having a grand old time feeding my face just finishing up a pot of coffee and my last two jelly donuts when a big ass gob of jelly falls out of the whole, but lucky enought that my belly caught it b4 it hit the floor. that all for the good news, the bad news is that it fell right on my lucky t shirt i put on a few weeks ago, no i either walk around with this big red spot dead center or get another shirt.. decisions decisions. hope there not a bunch of games today, especially if i change shirts
let me catach up on mail call and see if any good q&a for yesterday
later
there i was at breakfast just having a grand old time feeding my face just finishing up a pot of coffee and my last two jelly donuts when a big ass gob of jelly falls out of the whole, but lucky enought that my belly caught it b4 it hit the floor. that all for the good news, the bad news is that it fell right on my lucky t shirt i put on a few weeks ago, no i either walk around with this big red spot dead center or get another shirt.. decisions decisions. hope there not a bunch of games today, especially if i change shirts
let me catach up on mail call and see if any good q&a for yesterday
later
c, i believe it, prob is that you have no way of knowing that info b4 the fact. this wager line and those like it are as useless as
on a bull, dont like anything where no real dollard behind them like i get from a few casinos from time to time. bots can change the numbers anyway they want them to be changed, and people act different when real money is at stake vs who the like, that why i never like those opinion things that litter the threads from time to time. much different when you giving an opinion vs putting hard cash on the linei love it, nothing that i can say bad about it, pitchure plus the way with looks, very rich design, stand and the ease of adjustment up or down, i would buy it again vs anything else that i've seen. i'll try to take a few picks tomorrow or this weekend if i have any time. i dont think you could make a better choice
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