Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[pops69]

Pops 93% humidity, 54%, hmmmmm......., do they want you to think low pops, public seeing two good pitchers with a high line like that, trying to pull ya in?

the bettors almost always bet with the pitch data, so that's why line has dropped to 9-. but that high of an opening number has more to do with what the odds makers feel that most expect a high score. if it was 10- i take under 4 sure. that humidity is as close as you can get to rain. if any delays than strong possibility it will go over

where jimmyd when you need him. prob trying out a new pair of tube socks

 

[cincy_]

the bettors almost always bet with the pitch data, so that's why line has dropped to 9-. but that high of an opening number has more to do with what the odds makers feel that most expect a high score. if it was 10- i take under 4 sure. that humidity is as close as you can get to rain. if any delays than strong possibility it will go over

where jimmyd when you need him. prob trying out a new pair of tube socks

Don't out-smart yourself Pops - I think the only thing they feared was the public hitting the OVER since it's a Sunday night game and nothing else worth betting on is on TV.

The Sox have problems with lefties, the Yanks only have 4 bonafide hitters with Giambi out, this is a travel day, the wind is blowing in, the home team is favored, and the rain can sometimes shrink a strike-zone quicker than Eddings' dinner reservations can.

 

[BillDildeaux]

housekeeping

still need the weeks #2-7 data check back. sunday's are normally slow, so would be nice to have them all so i can update the masters and have as clean as possible june

when i do the master updates, i do not rest all the filters in the various pivot tables, so make sure you check on to to see what the headers show before you use the data.

Pops I'll get week 3 audited by tommorrow...been busy

What a crazy day for baseball. I am going to bet on the NYY/BOS under on Matchbook and try and sell it off after a couple innings. GL

 

[pops69]

i shopped every place i knew for a 10. no ruck

so going with the under 9- tonight

again, the pdws is already uploaded and the master only needs tonight game final score and i'll do the same

glta

 

[mlfp]

Nyy/Bos SS on FTP and in inboxes. Points to over.

 

[mlfp]

Is that why the projected avg changed, a lineup change? I noticed the mariners/rangers projected that was sent out later was also different from the original.

Luckily I was at work and didnt get the updated emails so im 1-1 on the picks so far today.

Yeah, lineup change at the buzzer. Just snuck out the Yanks SS under the wire, triple column for Yankees and Proj Avg and Range show over, so I'm on both small to see if it recovers my day. GL

 

[jimmydingle]

sorry, i was busy losing my nuts on the ponies
gl

 

[bullets]

Nyy/Bos SS on FTP and in inboxes. Points to over.

Thanks for the spreadsheets MLFP. I am not doing much with them except looking for overs to play.

Had under in the Twins game until it dropped to 6 1/2 and I bet the over and lost -120 vig. I'm an idiot with baseball.

Got Yankees. Action money.

 

[bunbury]

ill have my data checked between tonight and tomorrow and get it over to you pops

 

[mlfp]

Thanks for the spreadsheets MLFP. I am not doing much with them except looking for overs to play.

Had under in the Twins game until it dropped to 6 1/2 and I bet the over and lost -120 vig. I'm an idiot with baseball.

Got Yankees. Action money.

I hit Yanks and the Over based on the SS, so a comeback win would be very nice. As far as the SS just check out the Projected Average and that's essentially where it points. The range is a great barometer for the play, but as always I advise using any other data at your disposal too, as I'd hate to be responsible for lost money that isn't mine.

 

[bullets]

I hit Yanks and the Over based on the SS, so a comeback win would be very nice. As far as the SS just check out the Projected Average and that's essentially where it points. The range is a great barometer for the play, but as always I advise using any other data at your disposal too, as I'd hate to be responsible for lost money that isn't mine.

I agree. Thats why I am hesitant to post my NBA halftime plays. don't want anyone to lose their money.

I like your spreadsheets emailed. From there a person can look at weather, line moves, and whatever else Pops calls you guys dumb fucks for not looking at.

 

[AL.A]

Hello pops.

i have been sorta following the thread and i wonder if u guys can use a clean csv file or txt. file .My friend and i have doing sports stats for about 9 months now and we produce a daily csv file on mlb at the moment but we also do hockey and nba.i will include a file that u can check to see if it can be of any use to you .let me know what u need if anything and maybe i can be of assistance

 

[pops69]

i have been sorta following the thread and i wonder if u guys can use a clean csv file or txt. file .My friend and i have doing sports stats for about 9 months now and we produce a daily csv file on mlb at the moment but we also do hockey and nba.i will include a file that u can check to see if it can be of any use to you .let me know what u need if anything and maybe i can be of assistance

so why would we use a cvs file vs the spreadsheets we already have? so no form or calc show up?

 

[pops69]

i've uploaded the spreadsheet to the ftp, i assumed a nyy win 6-5 if it's diff just change the score and do a refresh all the data will be correct

nite all back at you all in the morning

 

[mlfp]

Nice way to round out the night with a sweep on the Yanks game, thanks to the umps for letting them finish in the rain.

 

[bullets]

Nice way to round out the night with a sweep on the Yanks game, thanks to the umps for letting them finish in the rain.

Yep, I agree.

Love it when you call me big Papa.

 

[mlfp]

Yep, I agree.

Love it when you call me big Papa.

Wow, I just had a mini excitement attack as I saw the Choi won the Memorial and I thought he was one of your guys that I threw some coin on. Turns out it was a different asian guy that I've never heard of. On to the next tourney eh?

Throw your hands in the air if you a true playa!

 

[AL.A]

so why would we use a cvs file vs the spreadsheets we already have? so no form or calc show up?

i just thought if it was info u collect already u could save yourself some work since we do this this data collection and will keep doing this . It is fairly easy to add or delete spreadsheet info from one sheet to another so it was on that basis that i though it might be useful .also it was a shot in the dark , but u did post that u were in need of assistance in one of your post and that some people would probably drop out so i was interested in joining your data collection group and sharing in the data if it was possible. and since is the data i already collect it would have been fairly easy to see that u get it on a daily basis.Our spreadsheet calculations are not based on over or under winners, but moneyline and so for that reason your system interests me.

 

[pops69]

Monday June 4th

q&a for a couple if you got em. got my coffee, and here working

al: i need to look at the data your collecting. the toughest ones i dont believe you have game time humidity, pure open and closing lines, 5 inn Lines, game of a series and ump projections. i'm trying to project before the fact vs after the fact. and once all the pitchers and knows and put into my spreadsheets all the era and whip info is automatic

but i'm always open to new ideas. i know the mbb has defined what he believes is a much better way of projecting ov/un but i really didnt have the time or resources avail to put it all together etc

back to work

 

[pops69]

fyi, i see a couple of new pitchers for today, so i'll get those changes and put out a new pdws. should be uploaded in about 5 min