Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[cd329]

Pops,
I gotta ask this cause am a little confused. You got this powerful spreadsheet you designed, but it seems like the majority of your plays are just line move fades, sometimes even going against the numbers the spreadsheet comes up with. Are the moves a bigger factor in your capping?
Last nights under play on milwaukee had me baffled.
cd

 

[jacksonjohn]

Pops,
I gotta ask this cause am a little confused. You got this powerful spreadsheet you designed, but it seems like the majority of your plays are just line move fades, sometimes even going against the numbers the spreadsheet comes up with. Are the moves a bigger factor in your capping?
Last nights under play on milwaukee had me baffled.
cd

I've been wondering the exact same thing CD. Also, can someone tell me what ftp is and how to get the coach's plays plus whatever else is on there. I'm glad I am not the only one confused. The last time I asked questions (which were solicited) I got a barrage of ridicule and sarcasm(see page 279, post #6969). I'm here to help and be helped. I already feel stupid enough without the piling on.

Now that I've got that off my chest, I wish everyone a HOT Friday night!

 

[cd329]

I've been wondering the exact same thing CD. Also, can someone tell me what ftp is and how to get the coach's plays plus whatever else is on there. I'm glad I am not the only one confused. The last time I asked questions (which were solicited) I got a barrage of ridicule and sarcasm(see page 279, post #6969). I'm here to help and be helped. I already feel stupid enough without the piling on.

Now that I've got that off my chest, I wish everyone a HOT Friday night!

Jack,
if your are using internet explorer, just click on the link that was emailed to you and it will take you to a page that has all the spreadsheet stuff and other things, like the coaches plays. Just double click on any of the folders and they will open up and show you what sheets or other things are inside that folder. To download the stuff to your computer just right click on what you want and a box will open,hit the copy to folder box and then another box will open up asking you where you want to copy the stuff to, select a spot and hit okay. The file will then be on your computer. Dont bother trying to figure out what the ftp stuff means, because right now with internet explorer you can get to the page without having to use special ftp software.
cd

 

[pops69]

5:00

houston un 8-

 

[pops69]

at 7am this morning i posted q&a if you got em

nothing for 10 fucken hours, than you wait right until close to the start of all the games

too much other shit going on now for q&a time

 

[ILMW]

This is a vicious crowd for anyone who is think skinned enter at your own risk.

 

[ILMW]

Taking rockies and reds under 11.

 

[roach23]

Pops,
I gotta ask this cause am a little confused. You got this powerful spreadsheet you designed, but it seems like the majority of your plays are just line move fades, sometimes even going against the numbers the spreadsheet comes up with. Are the moves a bigger factor in your capping?
Last nights under play on milwaukee had me baffled.
cd

I can't answer for pops...but based on capping games with him a shit load last year this is what i'd imagine he'd say. The spreadsheet isn't there just to spit out plays (like bet the highlighted green/red ones), but more as a source of info. Pops takes into account a bunch of things for each bet....day/night, home/away, pitchers, line moves, umps, humitidy, etc. The spreadsheet is an organized way of keeping track of all that info. In addition you can use it to sort additional info like O/U trends vs RHP or LHP. I'm sure if you look at his plays closer...a few things will line up...line move, humidity, ump, etc. Just because team trends on the PopSummary sheet aren't highlighted doesn't mean its not a solid play.

and just cause pops posts a play doesn't mean you should play it. he always says use the data to back up your decision. if you find relevant data that points to a play that is opposite of what pops is playing, have some balls and play it...go against pops. if anything he'll commend you for using the data to make a play, even if its against his....because that's the purpose of this thread.

 

[cd329]

I can't answer for pops...but based on capping games with him a shit load last year this is what i'd imagine he'd say. The spreadsheet isn't there just to spit out plays (like bet the highlighted green/red ones), but more as a source of info. Pops takes into account a bunch of things for each bet....day/night, home/away, pitchers, line moves, umps, humitidy, etc. The spreadsheet is an organized way of keeping track of all that info. In addition you can use it to sort additional info like O/U trends vs RHP or LHP. I'm sure if you look at his plays closer...a few things will line up...line move, humidity, ump, etc. Just because team trends on the PopSummary sheet aren't highlighted doesn't mean its not a solid play.

and just cause pops posts a play doesn't mean you should play it. he always says use the data to back up your decision. if you find relevant data that points to a play that is opposite of what pops is playing, have some balls and play it...go against pops. if anything he'll commend you for using the data to make a play, even if its against his....because that's the purpose of this thread.

Roach,
Thanks for the info appreciate it.
Cd

 

[jacksonjohn]

Jack,
if your are using internet explorer, just click on the link that was emailed to you and it will take you to a page that has all the spreadsheet stuff and other things, like the coaches plays. Just double click on any of the folders and they will open up and show you what sheets or other things are inside that folder. To download the stuff to your computer just right click on what you want and a box will open,hit the copy to folder box and then another box will open up asking you where you want to copy the stuff to, select a spot and hit okay. The file will then be on your computer. Dont bother trying to figure out what the ftp stuff means, because right now with internet explorer you can get to the page without having to use special ftp software.
cd

Thank you; I will give that a try.

 

[jacksonjohn]

at 7am this morning i posted q&a if you got em

nothing for 10 fucken hours, than you wait right until close to the start of all the games

too much other shit going on now for q&a time

I have a job I work 10 hours a day if you are talking to me. I wish my life could revolve around sports betting, but it doesn't.

 

[jacksonjohn]

This is a vicious crowd for anyone who is think skinned enter at your own risk.

I can take it; but I can also dish it out if necessary. I hope that thin-skinned warning applies to everyone.

 

[ILMW]

It was not a warning, I was kidding jacks, come on now.

 

[ILMW]

I can't answer for pops...but based on capping games with him a shit load last year this is what i'd imagine he'd say. The spreadsheet isn't there just to spit out plays (like bet the highlighted green/red ones), but more as a source of info. Pops takes into account a bunch of things for each bet....day/night, home/away, pitchers, line moves, umps, humitidy, etc. The spreadsheet is an organized way of keeping track of all that info. In addition you can use it to sort additional info like O/U trends vs RHP or LHP. I'm sure if you look at his plays closer...a few things will line up...line move, humidity, ump, etc. Just because team trends on the PopSummary sheet aren't highlighted doesn't mean its not a solid play.

and just cause pops posts a play doesn't mean you should play it. he always says use the data to back up your decision. if you find relevant data that points to a play that is opposite of what pops is playing, have some balls and play it...go against pops. if anything he'll commend you for using the data to make a play, even if its against his....because that's the purpose of this thread.

A doctor could not have said it better. Word on the pops bets also, he stated before, he post some plays, but alot of times he is playing other shit.

 

[pops69]

last game was rockies un 11

i have a minor fuck up here, just noticed that i'm missing may 31st from the master area. need to figure out wtf happended than reconstruct today as well at least 2-2 on the early shit with houston and rockies cooking

i got the call but didnt go out until i get this data straightened out

later

 

[jacksonjohn]

It was not a warning, I was kidding jacks, come on now.

Sorry, bad choice of words. I meant no harm.

 

[pops69]

figure it out i just duped a date vs missing a bunch of data, shouldnt take all that long to fix

lets talk about the spreadsheets and data

1st of all, overall it's probably the best avail for capping baseball. not with that being said, none of the summarys are anything that you can hang your hat on and just bet blindly

the wa nps is the largest effort to produce those results. but in my opinion no cigar. for that to be effective as a end result tool, it MUST, MUST be linear. this means that a -8 is gold with respect to an under vs a -1, and a +8 is gold on an over vs a +1. and with all the effort by everyone, it's NOT LINEAR, so worthless as a straight bet ov/un tool

right now, as good as we are i'm just not sure if it every will be. i know that at least 4 of people that have spend hundreds of hours running all kinds of programs against this data, but still not come up with anything much better that simple line move fades

i'm not about to post every scalping bet i make, and in fact dont even like posting the amount of games i have. I dont like people betting my picks period. i've only been posting them cause they are obvious LM fade based upon the data in the spreadsheets. and anyone that gets them would be blind if they missed it

i spend more hours per day looking at the data than any 10 of you combined, and i sure would not make a bet w/o analysis first

ok, back to work

 

[pops69]

I have a job I work 10 hours a day if you are talking to me. I wish my life could revolve around sports betting, but it doesn't.

no you dont. i spend a hell of alot more than 10 hours per day running numbers and updating. a 10 hour per day regular job would be a walk in the park compaired to the amount of time i spend doing this. but this is my job, so we both need are work to support our way of living

 

[pops69]

dam, just coasting along in houston, bam, 7 runs in the 9th

one this about betting unders, i think yogi said it best, it's not under until it's over

pdws for saturday will be in the ftp in less than 5 min

 

[pops69]

cp projected plays for sat are in the ftp

we'll see if cinn can keep the bottom of the ninth under 5 runs

back to work