Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[NickFantana]

Also curious to see if the 9.5 to 10 will hold true during interleague,

IL is only this weekend correct?

This weekend and then 5 series in June, about two and a half weeks worth.

 

[ILMW]

Reading Material

If you are new to this thread or need to refresh back to important posts below is a link that contains all of the posts which contain useful information for this thread. It outlines what we attempt to accomplish and attempts to put it on one link than rather go back and read the entire thread. Good Luck


http://download.yousendit.com/C803ACFE28897E7E

 

[presscoverage]

one thing that did stand out are the ov/un 11 were 70% under in IL last year, and you have 2 today

Pops:

Is that based on the opening or closing line?

PC

 

[ILMW]

I know we dont play sides, but for the life of me I cannot understand why the Cubs are favored over the white sox today.

 

[cd329]

-2 1/2 system stands at 8-15 +$498 per $100 play
1-2 -$25 last night.

I still like the way these are going.

Today's plays are as follows:
Pitt -2 1/2 +240 AZ
Chicago Cubs -2 1/2 +243 Chicago Sox
Detroit -2 1/2 +275 St. Louis
TB-2 1/2 +240 Floriday
NYMets -2 1/2 +300 NYYankees
Houston -2 1/2 +255 Texas
Oakland -2 1/2 +290 SF

That is a lot of plays, we need to win 2 to break even or win a little. 3 would be golden. Good luck.

Coach,
how exactly are you picking which -2.5 line games to play?
cd

 

[ILMW]

Coach one other question, is it consider better to be playing them at 1.5 even though less return?

 

[pops69]

BATR

let me get caught up and post reply to some of you questions

i'm also going to do a few modifications to last years data and remove all of the not needed and create a few pivots specifically for IL play

should be here the rest of the day

 

[pops69]

Pops:

Is that based on the opening or closing line?

PC

this year it's opening, i dont recall if i used opening or closing lines in last years, as i only was measuring 1 point of light, but i would assume 2006 was closing

 

[pops69]

about 100 bucks and 3 pounds (got that from the web site).The animal is designed for pet hair. In a year I used it maybe twice, it worked.

I think my wife is blowin the dyson dude, just mention the vac and her knees go weak

jb, so that a seperate attachment that i can just buy that you swap out with the existing. the one you mentioned sure looks smaller than the others. tks

 

[pops69]

i just sent you the 2006 to everyone with a couple of simple pivots for al nl w/l as ov/un by line

if you think any others would be of use let me know, i should be able to walk you thru creating as many as you want right in the thread

enjoy

 

[pops69]

ok i see geppi has sent out the 2006 mlb spreadsheets and pivot tables, if you didnt receive and still need a copy let me know. it's in 2003 format but you still need a little knowledge of using excel and pivotables

i dont plan to provide any help with that aspect of the program or what the data means. basically the data is not as complex as this year. less than 25 lines of data for each game vs close to 100 this year

q&a

 

[coachesplays]

Coach one other question, is it consider better to be playing them at 1.5 even though less return?

cd, I use home teams that are between -101 and -150 on the line at a certain time. This will sound dumb but I am using the morning lines at around 8-9 AM after the initial movement takes place. Also, the teams chosen cannot have beaten the team the day before by more than 2.5 runs.


ILMW, my studies show that a large percentage of the time, a team that wins the 1.5 runline will win the 2.5 runline. The 2.5 runline offers a much greater return (an average of 100 more) For instance, currently the NYmets are -1 1/2 +185 but -2 1/2 +300. The percentage of times a team would cover the 2 1/2 compared to the 1 1/2 and the return in accordance tremendously overshadows the losers you would have because a team wins by exactly two runs. Combine that with the higher return for home teams because of the lower possiblity of at bats due to the 9th inning lead.

Hope that helps.

 

[coachesplays]

ok i see geppi has sent out the 2006 mlb spreadsheets and pivot tables, if you didnt receive and still need a copy let me know. it's in 2003 format but you still need a little knowledge of using excel and pivotables

i dont plan to provide any help with that aspect of the program or what the data means. basically the data is not as complex as this year. less than 25 lines of data for each game vs close to 100 this year

q&a

Pops, would you shoot me another one. Thanks

 

[coachesplays]

Got the cubbies in +243. Nice way to start the day.

ILMW, if that doesn't make sense let me know and I'll try to clarify.

 

[cd329]

cd, I use home teams that are between -101 and -150 on the line at a certain time. This will sound dumb but I am using the morning lines at around 8-9 AM after the initial movement takes place. Also, the teams chosen cannot have beaten the team the day before by more than 2.5 runs.


ILMW, my studies show that a large percentage of the time, a team that wins the 1.5 runline will win the 2.5 runline. The 2.5 runline offers a much greater return (an average of 100 more) For instance, currently the NYmets are -1 1/2 +185 but -2 1/2 +300. The percentage of times a team would cover the 2 1/2 compared to the 1 1/2 and the return in accordance tremendously overshadows the losers you would have because a team wins by exactly two runs. Combine that with the higher return for home teams because of the lower possiblity of at bats due to the 9th inning lead.

Hope that helps.

Thanks Coach for explanation

 

[pops69]

for what ever it worth

tigers cederstrom
phillies crawford
tampa knight

 

[ILMW]

Got the cubbies in +243. Nice way to start the day.

ILMW, if that doesn't make sense let me know and I'll try to clarify.

No, it makes sense now. The book I use only has 1.5 runs so I figure less return, thanks again.

 

[pops69]

couple pieces of data i got yesterday from mbb regarding two of the pitchers starting tonight

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 122pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=163 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 122pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5961" width=163><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; WIDTH: 122pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=163 height=17>KIM, BYUNG-HYUN
mbb was all over this guys from a few years ago when he was king of the hill as a closer for boston, but was never the same after he gave up back to back HR vs the Yanks in the playoffs. he has a very different delivery that he said the TB hitters have never seen and could have some trouble hitting him if he's on

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 123pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=164 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 123pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5997" width=164><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; WIDTH: 123pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=164 height=17>MILLER, ANDREW</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
followed this guy an ncar, dam good pitcher but a real head case if he's having any problems

that is all


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[cd329]

reds game

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 width=300 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=black12bold colSpan=2>Officials</TD></TR><TR class=section_medium><TD class=black12bold align=middle colSpan=2>Umpires</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black12bold width="65%">Name</TD><TD class=black12bold align=middle width="35%"> Position</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Rob Drake</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>HP</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Gary Darling</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>1B</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Jerry Meals</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>2B</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Bruce Dreckman</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>3B</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[cd329]

pitt game

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 width=300 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=black12bold colSpan=2>Officials</TD></TR><TR class=section_medium><TD class=black12bold align=middle colSpan=2>Umpires</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black12bold width="65%">Name</TD><TD class=black12bold align=middle width="35%"> Position</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Mike Everitt</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>HP</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Paul Nauert</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>1B</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Brian Gorman</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>2B</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Gerry Davis</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>3B</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>