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idn, i delete almost all the email i receive daily, get over 500 and just mass delete and dont have any more from him now, but hyphen is that the same as dash, thought that was it, but tried it and it came back from me as well
plus i just looked at his latest confirmed list and your not there yet as well
Here's some final 4 data.
Overall Favorite/Underdog Results
Since 1987, there have been 60 final four games played, and the favorites have won 39 of them outright. Amazingly, the ATS results are split 30-30. However, favorites are on a nice run of 6-1 SU & ATS, including the 2004 championship game win over Georgia Tech. Since the turn of the century, the "Chalk" is 15-6 SU & 14-7 ATS. UNDERs have been nearly as lucrative, going 5-1 over the last two seasons, won and covered in 2005. In the championship game alone, the favorites hold a bigger edge overall, having won 12 of 20 ATS and boasting a 16-4 straight up mark. Syracuse was the last underdog to win SU & ATS in the final, beating favored Kansas 81-78 as a 5-1/2 point dog in the 2003 final. Here’s some other strong Final Four trend info.
Line Placement
With a 50% split in ATS results, simply going with a favorite or underdog trend in a final four game will not lead you to any guaranteed kind of success. Analyzing the amount of points being given or had does reveal some secrets though. Take a look at some of these records based on the line placement:
- Favorites of 6-1/2 points or more are a mere 9-7 SU & 3-13 ATS!!!
- Favorites of 4-6 points are 15-5 SU & ATS!!!
- Favorites of less than 4 points are 15-10 SU & 12-13 ATS.
The only three times since ’87 that a team favored by more than 6-1/2 points covered that game were in the 2000 semis when Michigan State beat Wisconsin, 53-41 as an 8-point favorite, in the ’97 semis, when Kentucky, laying 6-1/2 points, knocked off Minnesota 78-69, and finally, in the 2002 championship game when Maryland, a 7-1/2 point favorite, beat Indiana 64-52. Furthermore, based solely on the final score margin, none of these games were easy covers. Which leads to the next question, what game provided the cushiest ATS win? That would be the ’03 semifinal between Kansas and Marquette as the Jayhawks routed the Golden Eagles 94-61 as a 4-1/2 point favorite, easily covering as 4-1/2 point chalk. That 28-1/2 point margin barely edged UNLV’s 26 point cover in its 103-73 Championship Game win over Duke in ‘90.
Seed Records
Does a team’s seed help determine anything about potential wagers on final four weekend? Unfortunately, only slightly: the #3, 4 & 5 seeds have been somewhat predictable. Check out the records of the seeds since ’87:
Seed # ATS Record (SU Mark)
#1’s: 25-22, 53.1% (29-20)
#2’s: 11-15, 42.3% (12-14)
#3’s: 13-7, 65.0% (11-9)
#4’s: 4-7, 36.4% (3-8)
#5’s: 2-4, 33.3% (2-4)
#6’s: 3-2, 60.0% (3-2)
#8’s: 0-2, 0.0% (0-2)
#11’s: 0-1, 0.0% (0-1)
The #3 seed has been the most reliable performing team when it makes it this deep into the tournament, including the 2007 Florida team that went 2-0 SU & ATS en route to the title. Still, the Gators became only the third #3 seed to win a Championship. Michigan in ’89 and Syracuse in ’03 were the others. Digging a bit deeper into some other trends reveals that any #1 seed that is an underdog has performed at a 9-3 ATS clip.
Conference Records
Do any particular conferences enjoy more success at the final four than others? You’ll see from the following that the Big East and Pac 10 seem to thrive at the final four, especially where the pointspread is concerned, while the Big 12 struggles somewhat. Ironically, it took a last second, 30-foot, back door 3pt shot by Duke against UConn in 2004 to keep the Big East from going 12-1 ATS! It’s been a two year drought for that league though so be sure to refer back to this chart if a team like Georgetown or Louisville should happen to make it to Atlanta. Check out all the conference records:
Conference ATS Record (SU Mark)
ACC: 16-14, 53.3% (16-14)
Atlantic 10: 1-0, 100% (0-1)
Big 12: 5-9, 35.7% (5-9)
Big East: 11-2, 84.6% (9-4)
Big Ten: 9-12, 42.8% (10-11)
Colonial Athl: 0-1, 0.0% (0-1)
Conf-USA: 0-3, 0.0% (0-3)
Pac 10: 7-4, 66.7% (6-5)
SEC: 8-11, 42.1% (11-9)
WAC: 3-3, 50.0% (3-3)
Totals
In general, the OVER/UNDER Totals posted for the final four games are higher than most you would see in the regular season. The reason? My suspicion would be that oddsmakers trap exuberant bettors into thinking that since the best teams are playing, there should be more offensive fireworks. Last year’s games produced two of three UNDER plays, and the UCLA-Memphis clash was the lowest scoring final four game in six years. In all, there have been 35 UNDERS, 24 OVERS, and 1 PUSH since ‘87. Thirty-seven of the games have had a total higher than 150 points. Of those, 23 were UNDERS.
One more point about the unusual nature of the totals in the 2006 Final Four games. The average posted total was 128, 11-1/2 points below the 9-year overall tournament average, and a full 24-points below the 2005 Semifinals and Championship games involving the likes of North Carolina and Illinois. It’s not a stretch to predict that the 2007 Final Four could be a weekend where the OVER comes back.
Overall Favorite/Underdog Results
Since 1987, there have been 60 final four games played, and the favorites have won 39 of them outright. Amazingly, the ATS results are split 30-30. However, favorites are on a nice run of 6-1 SU & ATS, including the 2004 championship game win over Georgia Tech. Since the turn of the century, the "Chalk" is 15-6 SU & 14-7 ATS. UNDERs have been nearly as lucrative, going 5-1 over the last two seasons, won and covered in 2005. In the championship game alone, the favorites hold a bigger edge overall, having won 12 of 20 ATS and boasting a 16-4 straight up mark. Syracuse was the last underdog to win SU & ATS in the final, beating favored Kansas 81-78 as a 5-1/2 point dog in the 2003 final. Here’s some other strong Final Four trend info.
Line Placement
With a 50% split in ATS results, simply going with a favorite or underdog trend in a final four game will not lead you to any guaranteed kind of success. Analyzing the amount of points being given or had does reveal some secrets though. Take a look at some of these records based on the line placement:
- Favorites of 6-1/2 points or more are a mere 9-7 SU & 3-13 ATS!!!
- Favorites of 4-6 points are 15-5 SU & ATS!!!
- Favorites of less than 4 points are 15-10 SU & 12-13 ATS.
The only three times since ’87 that a team favored by more than 6-1/2 points covered that game were in the 2000 semis when Michigan State beat Wisconsin, 53-41 as an 8-point favorite, in the ’97 semis, when Kentucky, laying 6-1/2 points, knocked off Minnesota 78-69, and finally, in the 2002 championship game when Maryland, a 7-1/2 point favorite, beat Indiana 64-52. Furthermore, based solely on the final score margin, none of these games were easy covers. Which leads to the next question, what game provided the cushiest ATS win? That would be the ’03 semifinal between Kansas and Marquette as the Jayhawks routed the Golden Eagles 94-61 as a 4-1/2 point favorite, easily covering as 4-1/2 point chalk. That 28-1/2 point margin barely edged UNLV’s 26 point cover in its 103-73 Championship Game win over Duke in ‘90.
Seed Records
Does a team’s seed help determine anything about potential wagers on final four weekend? Unfortunately, only slightly: the #3, 4 & 5 seeds have been somewhat predictable. Check out the records of the seeds since ’87:
Seed # ATS Record (SU Mark)
#1’s: 25-22, 53.1% (29-20)
#2’s: 11-15, 42.3% (12-14)
#3’s: 13-7, 65.0% (11-9)
#4’s: 4-7, 36.4% (3-8)
#5’s: 2-4, 33.3% (2-4)
#6’s: 3-2, 60.0% (3-2)
#8’s: 0-2, 0.0% (0-2)
#11’s: 0-1, 0.0% (0-1)
The #3 seed has been the most reliable performing team when it makes it this deep into the tournament, including the 2007 Florida team that went 2-0 SU & ATS en route to the title. Still, the Gators became only the third #3 seed to win a Championship. Michigan in ’89 and Syracuse in ’03 were the others. Digging a bit deeper into some other trends reveals that any #1 seed that is an underdog has performed at a 9-3 ATS clip.
Conference Records
Do any particular conferences enjoy more success at the final four than others? You’ll see from the following that the Big East and Pac 10 seem to thrive at the final four, especially where the pointspread is concerned, while the Big 12 struggles somewhat. Ironically, it took a last second, 30-foot, back door 3pt shot by Duke against UConn in 2004 to keep the Big East from going 12-1 ATS! It’s been a two year drought for that league though so be sure to refer back to this chart if a team like Georgetown or Louisville should happen to make it to Atlanta. Check out all the conference records:
Conference ATS Record (SU Mark)
ACC: 16-14, 53.3% (16-14)
Atlantic 10: 1-0, 100% (0-1)
Big 12: 5-9, 35.7% (5-9)
Big East: 11-2, 84.6% (9-4)
Big Ten: 9-12, 42.8% (10-11)
Colonial Athl: 0-1, 0.0% (0-1)
Conf-USA: 0-3, 0.0% (0-3)
Pac 10: 7-4, 66.7% (6-5)
SEC: 8-11, 42.1% (11-9)
WAC: 3-3, 50.0% (3-3)
Totals
In general, the OVER/UNDER Totals posted for the final four games are higher than most you would see in the regular season. The reason? My suspicion would be that oddsmakers trap exuberant bettors into thinking that since the best teams are playing, there should be more offensive fireworks. Last year’s games produced two of three UNDER plays, and the UCLA-Memphis clash was the lowest scoring final four game in six years. In all, there have been 35 UNDERS, 24 OVERS, and 1 PUSH since ‘87. Thirty-seven of the games have had a total higher than 150 points. Of those, 23 were UNDERS.
One more point about the unusual nature of the totals in the 2006 Final Four games. The average posted total was 128, 11-1/2 points below the 9-year overall tournament average, and a full 24-points below the 2005 Semifinals and Championship games involving the likes of North Carolina and Illinois. It’s not a stretch to predict that the 2007 Final Four could be a weekend where the OVER comes back.
Saturday March 31st
march is gone already, bring on the boys of summer
having to change my lucky shirt didnt kill me yesterday, wound up splitting. dodged a bullet there
nba is about over, ctp is still going thru the playoff data to see if anything his holding to the numbers, but right now it no, so my nba are about finished. "the rick" owes me a couple in nba from last year, maybe i'll call in my marker for those this year
were on the 4 or 5 version of the popsummary and wa nps integrated into one spreadsheet, but still no cigar. either last years numbers were wrong or still the calc for the new spreadsheet
i know the florida derby today and some big stakes races going on right now in dubi, the snake wanted me to be at the casino early this morning for some of those, but as you can see i just got up
right now my plan is to stay here today and try to do the final push for mlb. i also have a list somewhere that mbb gave me for a few games that i should consider for overs on sun and monday
that's about it from vegas land, so should be a quiet day here in the baseball thread so fire away
later
march is gone already, bring on the boys of summer
having to change my lucky shirt didnt kill me yesterday, wound up splitting. dodged a bullet there
nba is about over, ctp is still going thru the playoff data to see if anything his holding to the numbers, but right now it no, so my nba are about finished. "the rick" owes me a couple in nba from last year, maybe i'll call in my marker for those this year
were on the 4 or 5 version of the popsummary and wa nps integrated into one spreadsheet, but still no cigar. either last years numbers were wrong or still the calc for the new spreadsheet
i know the florida derby today and some big stakes races going on right now in dubi, the snake wanted me to be at the casino early this morning for some of those, but as you can see i just got up
right now my plan is to stay here today and try to do the final push for mlb. i also have a list somewhere that mbb gave me for a few games that i should consider for overs on sun and monday
that's about it from vegas land, so should be a quiet day here in the baseball thread so fire away
later
MLB PDWS for Sunday April 1st is below, i'll post this one as well as monday on sunday morning when things are quiet. this type format will be posted the night for every MLB game the next day, and all of this data plus some additional data that is being data mined as well will go directly in to the 2007 spreadsheets, which hopefully, we'll have soon
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I'm all over Discreet Cat....People say Invasor is the next superhorse...But thi slittle horse player think sthat the "cat" is that superhorse....Should get some value as INVASOR will get alot of mulah.....If they were allowed to bet in dubai....the cat would be 2-5, but they can't and here in the great usa people only remember what Invasor did in his last race, which was incredible.........One little side note INVASOR is 11-12 lifetime...who beat'm??? The "cat"!!!
So far 2-2 today, but not last race was CHALK...but hey a winner is a winner....This race 3-5-8 exacta box......liking the 5 the best
So far 2-2 today, but not last race was CHALK...but hey a winner is a winner....This race 3-5-8 exacta box......liking the 5 the best
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