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BATR
coffee in hand, but still not awake
wtf did you guys do to me last night, send you all the updates with a couple of games to look at and you go crazy
root user did very well yesterday, getting to the point in may that cpt said was much better than the whole month. so we'll see said the blind may
it's quiet this morning, all caught up on what needed to be done for the early games etc so ready to roll
i did have a question regarding holly fuck and what it is and how to read it etc. i know i posted it b4 but, i did a few weeks back, although the format is the same etc
1st of all holly fuck is part of one of the two summaries that are seperate tabs within the mlb master spreadsheets. i post the popsummary as part of the pdws and is in the thread daily. you can see the same overall info in the popsummary that you find in the wa nps and is what i use as a quick rough cut the 1st shot out of the box (holly fuck is just one number out of that data)
both of these summaries are nothing more that pivot table summaries of all the data items listed in the headers rows. so if you took each of those elements and when to the various pivot tables you would come up with the same data
pops summary has about 30 items being measured, whereas the wa nps has over 100 data items (and includes all the popsummary info as well)
by far the popsummary that i post is much easier to read and understand than the wa nps as it's so dam long to follow each line of data etc
so because of that was born the Holly Fuck. so col CO is the plus or minus sum of all the 60 and 40% key ov/un areas that i measure, and takes the net of all of those and put it in 1 number. the max you can have is plus/minus 9 (col cf thru cn)
let's use the boston game today as an example. the HF for them is 0 (zero) you have one 65% ytd home ov, one 40% vis ytd un, one 30% ytd day/night vis un and one 66% 2007 ump ov, so only 4 of the nine were 60% or 40% ov/un, two were over and two were under which produced a result of zero. if none of the key numbers were 60/40 the HF would still be zero
so the 1st piece of the summary is zero, so it would not jump out as a top priority game to start checking the detail on. i personally look for plus and minus 5
those games yesterday were
houston -6
toronto -5
cws -7
the highest plus yesterday was clev at +4
this is still only 1 small piece of the puzzle, and from there you need to look at all the scoring avg in col CP thru DD, and all of those scoring avg's listed in the headers are what the two teams have avg home and away for the year, last 45 days, last 30 including day/night and L vs R
so the second piece of the summary is col CH. now using the boston example for today, let's assume that the HF was +5, so your next check point is col DH and DI, which in this case is 11.2 avg runs with a std dev of 1.1 which says a bunch of high and lows, which is why you had a HF of zero. so for the sake of discussion lets say you had two good data points so far the HF was plus 5 and scoring avg was 11.2 as it is, now you look at the opening line, which in boston is 10, so you would have two hits, plus in col DJ it tells you that the DH avg is over the opening line (O or U in col DJ)
the 3rd piece of data i look at is col DG which is the home and away scoring avg for the last 15 days. this trend must be higher (or lower if you looking for a under) than DH if not is say's that the team hot or cold over the recent past
so you summary game you three key pieces of information which you now can take to phase 2 which is you pdws and that is where you will spend a bunch of time looking at pitching etc
so there my wa nps and holly fuck lesson for today. but again, i posted all of this a couple of days ago regarding people looking for the easy way of betting games by just using the HF number with various patterns
once again, no easy way of looking at the numbers it's still a combinations of the following:
1 pitching data (pdws and any other sources you use)
2 master spreadsheet summaries and pivot tables
3 ump data
4 weather (very key)
5 line moves
there is over a 1000 man hours invested in developing this information, so why not use it all
stay on point and keep your focus, i know when i dont i pay the price. dont force, find where the games fit and pay accordingly
i'm going to the casino for bf, back in less than 2
glta
coffee in hand, but still not awake
wtf did you guys do to me last night, send you all the updates with a couple of games to look at and you go crazy
root user did very well yesterday, getting to the point in may that cpt said was much better than the whole month. so we'll see said the blind may
it's quiet this morning, all caught up on what needed to be done for the early games etc so ready to roll
i did have a question regarding holly fuck and what it is and how to read it etc. i know i posted it b4 but, i did a few weeks back, although the format is the same etc
1st of all holly fuck is part of one of the two summaries that are seperate tabs within the mlb master spreadsheets. i post the popsummary as part of the pdws and is in the thread daily. you can see the same overall info in the popsummary that you find in the wa nps and is what i use as a quick rough cut the 1st shot out of the box (holly fuck is just one number out of that data)
both of these summaries are nothing more that pivot table summaries of all the data items listed in the headers rows. so if you took each of those elements and when to the various pivot tables you would come up with the same data
pops summary has about 30 items being measured, whereas the wa nps has over 100 data items (and includes all the popsummary info as well)
by far the popsummary that i post is much easier to read and understand than the wa nps as it's so dam long to follow each line of data etc
so because of that was born the Holly Fuck. so col CO is the plus or minus sum of all the 60 and 40% key ov/un areas that i measure, and takes the net of all of those and put it in 1 number. the max you can have is plus/minus 9 (col cf thru cn)
let's use the boston game today as an example. the HF for them is 0 (zero) you have one 65% ytd home ov, one 40% vis ytd un, one 30% ytd day/night vis un and one 66% 2007 ump ov, so only 4 of the nine were 60% or 40% ov/un, two were over and two were under which produced a result of zero. if none of the key numbers were 60/40 the HF would still be zero
so the 1st piece of the summary is zero, so it would not jump out as a top priority game to start checking the detail on. i personally look for plus and minus 5
those games yesterday were
houston -6
toronto -5
cws -7
the highest plus yesterday was clev at +4
this is still only 1 small piece of the puzzle, and from there you need to look at all the scoring avg in col CP thru DD, and all of those scoring avg's listed in the headers are what the two teams have avg home and away for the year, last 45 days, last 30 including day/night and L vs R
so the second piece of the summary is col CH. now using the boston example for today, let's assume that the HF was +5, so your next check point is col DH and DI, which in this case is 11.2 avg runs with a std dev of 1.1 which says a bunch of high and lows, which is why you had a HF of zero. so for the sake of discussion lets say you had two good data points so far the HF was plus 5 and scoring avg was 11.2 as it is, now you look at the opening line, which in boston is 10, so you would have two hits, plus in col DJ it tells you that the DH avg is over the opening line (O or U in col DJ)
the 3rd piece of data i look at is col DG which is the home and away scoring avg for the last 15 days. this trend must be higher (or lower if you looking for a under) than DH if not is say's that the team hot or cold over the recent past
so you summary game you three key pieces of information which you now can take to phase 2 which is you pdws and that is where you will spend a bunch of time looking at pitching etc
so there my wa nps and holly fuck lesson for today. but again, i posted all of this a couple of days ago regarding people looking for the easy way of betting games by just using the HF number with various patterns
once again, no easy way of looking at the numbers it's still a combinations of the following:
1 pitching data (pdws and any other sources you use)
2 master spreadsheet summaries and pivot tables
3 ump data
4 weather (very key)
5 line moves
there is over a 1000 man hours invested in developing this information, so why not use it all
stay on point and keep your focus, i know when i dont i pay the price. dont force, find where the games fit and pay accordingly
i'm going to the casino for bf, back in less than 2
glta
couple things, I think the pitchers in the ss are incorrect, maybe the data is correct and just names wrong?
col ov, so even though all the trends point to under, pitch era's and low hum, trump the play to an over. so in general, lets say all the info points to under but the pitch era's are over the number, is that enough to negate the play?
col ov, so even though all the trends point to under, pitch era's and low hum, trump the play to an over. so in general, lets say all the info points to under but the pitch era's are over the number, is that enough to negate the play?
Miner is young, too early IMHO to call him one way or the other. one start against boston last year.
<table class="tablehead" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="colhead"><td>By Opponent</td> <td align="right">ERA</td> <td align="right">W</td> <td align="right">L</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">G</td> <td align="right">GS</td> <td align="right">CG</td> <td align="right">IP</td> <td align="right">H</td> <td align="right">R</td> <td align="right">ER</td> <td align="right">HR</td> <td align="right">BB</td> <td align="right">SO</td> <td align="right">AVG</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="tablehead" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left" width="115">vs. BOS</td><td>6.75</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>4.0</td><td>7</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>.389</td></tr></tbody></table>
But his road numbers overall tell a different story:
<table class="tablehead" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="colhead"><td>By Breakdown</td> <td align="right">ERA</td> <td align="right">W</td> <td align="right">L</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">
</td> <td align="right">G</td> <td align="right">GS</td> <td align="right">CG</td> <td align="right">IP</td> <td align="right">H</td> <td align="right">R</td> <td align="right">ER</td> <td align="right">HR</td> <td align="right">BB</td> <td align="right">SO</td> <td align="right">AVG</td></tr></tbody></table><table class="tablehead" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left" width="115">Away</td><td>2.76</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>13</td><td>7</td><td>1</td><td>49.0</td><td>34</td><td>16</td><td>15</td><td>2</td><td>17</td><td>38</td><td>.195</td></tr></tbody></table>
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