Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[bet2win.us]

so for brevity sake +numbers would signal further investigation supporting an over and -numbers would signal further investigation in favor of an under?

 

[bet2win.us]

nevermind I got it now.

 

[pops69]

so for brevity sake +numbers would signal further investigation supporting an over and -numbers would signal further investigation in favor of an under?

correct the higher the number plus or mins are key games to look at. i suggest 5 as a starting point and if none of them drop to 4. totals still does not have any up data, but you have more than enough w/o them to get started.

i'm going to send my format to tbone to see if he can do something with it like the cbb and nba shit we have which worked very well.

 

[pops69]

i'm going to the casino to cash my nba shit from last night shoud be back in about 30-45

later

 

[bullets]

My GGs thread in the NBA, post #6 is the funniest post I have seen in a long time.

I hope he replies.

Two big MLB games tonight to make up for the two NBA loses last night.

 

[ILMW]

Yeah

i'm going to the casino to cash my nba shit from last night shoud be back in about 30-45

later

Pops do use a small wheel barrow or a truck when you cash those tickets.

 

[ILMW]

That

My GGs thread in the NBA, post #6 is the funniest post I have seen in a long time.

I hope he replies.

Two big MLB games tonight to make up for the two NBA loses last night.

Bullets, that is funny shit, I mean you have to admit a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

 

[bullets]

Bullets, that is funny shit, I mean you have to admit a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

Glad I was at the bar when that nut was found. Besides, he is just one of my factors and not a 100% fade.

 

[pops69]

BATR

k, the 30 and 45 day avg calc are completed ready to go, although no data to fill those buckets yet, so the numbers will be the same as the ytd when i start including them

working on the RL now so you can look at general plus or minus 1- home away and see if anything jumps out

i think the biggest bust has been the 5 inn shit, a bunch of work for the most random numbers i've ever seen. i think atlanta sent me on a wind goose chase and found nothing. maybe someone can see something that i sure can find

last night mbb gave me two games that i bet

phil un 10-, felt the two pitchers decent and that under offered a good value

TB ov 8-, he felt that eventhough they lost some good hitting with the CF injury, it was going to leave them in a very poor position in the outfield which would more than make up for the lower scoring production

 

[ILMW]

Thanks Pops, its been raining all day here in Philly, hopefully they get it in.

 

[twjd]

thats the most important one in the wa nps, if you recall from yesterday i posted the form in the thread was about a half page long, but it simple terms it represents the plus or minus of the 8 key areas that are being measured by the wa nps, you look for a play as close to plus or minus 8 as you can get than check the the ov/un line and make sure that col cq is either on the ov or under side of that number (i know there is no data now, but than look at your 45 and 30 day trends to see if going the same way)

below is the updated pdws for the pitcher change for cws and the missing opening lines

CONTRERAS, JOSE his WHIP is 4.115 seems a little high, is this from the 1 inining pitcher then left the game?

 

[pops69]

housekeeping

1st of all, any people the are contributors to the thread can receive the spreadsheets, and i dont mean a post like i live the over as well or i like dodgers etc, i could care less about anyone picks if there's no data to back them up. the purpose of the thread to to help anyone that want to learn the process of capping mlb. there a bunch of other things that can be posted, like links to sites were not aware of, or how to use the data differently etc

2nd, just because your getting the spreadsheets now, and you have not done pdws duty or contributed, the distribution will stop, i know we have over 50 users receiving them now, and a couple have not posted any decent info this year, not even one post. so i'm in the process of reviewing the list now, which i expect will be shortened by the end of the week.

remember no free lunches, no work no data, as it take a great deal of effort to put all this info together by a bunch of people working behind the seen

also make sure you dont put the pdws info into the an & nl combined area for the day coming up. if you do it will effect the scoring avg. the data collection and pdws process has been improved to the point that i'm able to get the updates out and in the proper format etc

i guess that all

back to work

 

[pops69]

CONTRERAS, JOSE his WHIP is 4.115 seems a little high, is this from the 1 inining pitcher then left the game?

lol, i got to figure out where that number came from, no way it should be that high. back in a few with the correct numbers to add to the pdws

tks tw

put it at 1.252 for him and 2.655 for the Total WHIP, it will be correct in tomorrows updates

 

[spesh]

some contrereas stats..

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width=573 bgColor=#333333 border=0><TBODY><TR class=textSm align=middle bgColor=#666666><TD width=34> </TD><TD width=30>W</TD><TD width=30>L</TD><TD width=35>ERA</TD><TD width=35>G</TD><TD width=30>GS</TD><TD width=30>CG</TD><TD width=30>SHO</TD><TD width=30>SV</TD><TD width=30>SVO</TD><TD width=45>IP</TD><TD width=35>H</TD><TD width=35>R</TD><TD width=35>ER</TD><TD width=30>HR</TD><TD width=35>BB</TD><TD width=35>SO</TD></TR><TR class=textXs align=middle bgColor=#999999><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>2007</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>6.16</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>19.0</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>10</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" bgColor=black border=0><TBODY><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ecece4; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>Date</TD><TD align=left>Team</TD><TD>L</TD><TD align=left>Opponent</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>POR</TD><TD>S/U</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>Total</TD><TD>O/U</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>WHPG</TD><TD>INN</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD align=left>Opp Starter</TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>04/02</TD><TD align=left>Chi White Sox</TD><TD>H</TD><TD align=left>Cleveland</TD><TD>5-12</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>-110</TD><TD>9.5</TD><TD>O</TD><TD>63.00</TD><TD>72.00</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD align=left>C Sabathia</TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>04/09</TD><TD align=left>Chi White Sox</TD><TD>A</TD><TD align=left>Oakland</TD><TD>4-1</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>150</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>U</TD><TD>1.50</TD><TD>12.00</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD align=left>R Harden</TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>04/15</TD><TD align=left>Chi White Sox</TD><TD>A</TD><TD align=left>Cleveland</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>145</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>U</TD><TD>0.00</TD><TD>10.80</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD align=left>C Sabathia</TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>04/21</TD><TD align=left>Chi White Sox</TD><TD>A</TD><TD align=left>Detroit</TD><TD>7-5</TD><TD></TD><TD>W</TD><TD>125</TD><TD>8.5</TD><TD>O</TD><TD>6.43</TD><TD>6.43</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD align=left>N Robertson</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[spesh]

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left>SPLIT</TD><TD width="6%">G</TD><TD width="6%">IP</TD><TD width="6%">H</TD><TD width="6%">R</TD><TD width="6%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">BB</TD><TD width="6%">SO</TD><TD width="6%">W</TD><TD width="6%">L</TD><TD width="6%">Sv</TD><TD width="6%">P/GS</TD><TD width="6%">WHIP</TD><TD width="6%">BAA</TD><TD width="6%">ERA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Season</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>19.0</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.0</TD><TD>1.42</TD><TD>.218</TD><TD>6.16</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

shows WHIP

 

[pops69]

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=colhead align=right><TD align=left>SPLIT</TD><TD width="6%">G</TD><TD width="6%">IP</TD><TD width="6%">H</TD><TD width="6%">R</TD><TD width="6%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">BB</TD><TD width="6%">SO</TD><TD width="6%">W</TD><TD width="6%">L</TD><TD width="6%">Sv</TD><TD width="6%">P/GS</TD><TD width="6%">WHIP</TD><TD width="6%">BAA</TD><TD width="6%">ERA</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Season</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>19.0</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>85.0</TD><TD>1.42</TD><TD>.218</TD><TD>6.16</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

shows WHIP

were going to start using 2007 home and away era and whip numbers starting on may 1st. i found that the 1st month last year was so distorted that using the actual early numbers were almost useless. as one you your decent checks is to see how this year compairs to 2006 etc

 

[spesh]

were going to start using 2007 home and away era and whip numbers starting on may 1st. i found that the 1st month last year was so distorted that using the actual early numbers were almost useless. as one you your decent checks is to see how this year compairs to 2006 etc

ya since baseball is all numbers...current form to prior and current to trend(ex your 40 day avg) are all good tells of whats going on..and current to avg (or career)

 

[mlfp]

Took Min/Det Ov 8 -115 @ Greek
PopSummary looked good, checked holy fvck at +5, AvgRunsHV used AL, Night, Out, then R for cell B14, L for cell F12. Teams have faired well in this situation, plus the averages are in favor of the over in the AL.

Anybody seeing anything else on this?

 

[spesh]

Took Min/Det Ov 8 -115 @ Greek
PopSummary looked good, checked holy fvck at +5, AvgRunsHV used AL, Night, Out, then R for cell B14, L for cell F12. Teams have faired well in this situation, plus the averages are in favor of the over in the AL.

Anybody seeing anything else on this?

yep got em at 8 - 105 this am...

 

[ILMW]

Did anyone else play the under for the second half of the houston game last night? The opening number/move applied to bones ss 2nd half and it worked out well again.