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think we may be opening a pandora's box here...so many things that you can incp the whip too.. that the data may take our attention from other areas..
for ex..
from espn as fat chick stated...you can sort pitchers and whip for inn 1-6 then 7+ prob be able to break down starters and relivers and get a starter whip (for say inn 1-6)to avg whip for bullpen (inn 7+) etc etc etc...you see where i am going..may be too much info to worry about.
for ex..
from espn as fat chick stated...you can sort pitchers and whip for inn 1-6 then 7+ prob be able to break down starters and relivers and get a starter whip (for say inn 1-6)to avg whip for bullpen (inn 7+) etc etc etc...you see where i am going..may be too much info to worry about.
the only way to even try to do it is to come up with a specific range (7 defined ranges is max)
1.000 - 1.200 (all pitchers with those whips that started would fall into one bucket)
than you would look at each of these buckets to see if you could find any patters or points of light to measure against
prob is i'm not smart enought to tell what ranges the buckets should be
ok, let me try to make this a little more simple to understand. the reason for the collection of data is to look for 60/40 situations in a number of areas. eg. let say were looking a 5 major areas home/away, day/night ump ov/un, game of a series. so what your trying to find is as many key areas as possible that have either 60/40 highlighted and try to find as many games as possible that fall into this pattern. the WHIP would than be another one of these areas like day/night
so let say you find 3 games that fall into the 60/40 range either ov or un does not make a difference. so you break down a 15 game schedule to 3 games that fit into the 60/40 pattern. so now vs looking at 15 games in detail at maybe an hour each, almost a full days work, you now only need to look at 3 games, 3 hours of work to come up with some plays for the day. just looking for ants or elephants
is that any simpler, or did i add more confusion to the mix
pops - the question is why was J saying there would be more unders early on? Nobody knew the weather was gonna be so friggin' cold - we all believe Al Gore and Universal Warming and here we are in a Global Freeze.
And more importantly is this low scoring going to continue and for how long?
And more importantly is this low scoring going to continue and for how long?
Allright team, here is a big boy question and unfortunately, I dont have the education to answer it myself.
1. I have data that shows a certain play will win 60% of the time.
2. Its record is 72-49 from last year up to this point
3 So far this year its 5-0.
Can anybody tell me what the outcome of the next game is percentage wise%
1. I have data that shows a certain play will win 60% of the time.
2. Its record is 72-49 from last year up to this point
3 So far this year its 5-0.
Can anybody tell me what the outcome of the next game is percentage wise%
Jimmy,
I could be wrong but i think that it will be 50 percent. You see even thou you have a system that hits 60 percent long term, you can never really predict when those 60 percent winners will happen.
as an example from last year the plays could have went 72-0, then 0-49.
No real way of knowing when winners and losers will come.
Just bet them all for the same amount and hope for another good season.
hope this helps
That is a small number of data points to have a high degree of confidence; of course, better to have a 1000+.
But strictly from a math viewpoint, I'd make the record 77-49 and say 61%.
If you understand probability and have a coin weighted so the odds are 60% heads over a very long term, then each time you flip that coin the odds are 60% it will land heads.
I just spent 22 hours driving and I think I'm delirious. Should I read through the past 8 pages or will I be okay if I skip it, because my mind feels like a scrambled egg right now.
Been working on a game prediction formulaic spreadsheet monster, first test will be the Mariners/Rangers series coming up, I'll post the projected game numbers and we'll all make fun of how far off I was afterward.
Been working on a game prediction formulaic spreadsheet monster, first test will be the Mariners/Rangers series coming up, I'll post the projected game numbers and we'll all make fun of how far off I was afterward.
BATR
i believe J said the samething last year and way more games when ov vs un. so maybe he's a coin flipper. i'm not sure if it's the weather, more to do with 1 sides wins keeping the avg down on a bunch of the games. but like last year the ov/un will wind up around 50/50 as J will just keep moving the lines down until they do
left the wife at the casino, so will have peace and quiet the rest of the day. i'll get the ump update finished and sent to geppi for distribution
looks like a big storm head here to v land, guess we could have a few games rained out.
i'll be around
updated ump spreadsheet attached link
go the dell guy coming over to replace the mother board to fix the SD memory disk problem for my camera, should be here in the next hour or so, so i'll be out of business for a hour or so, assuming he knows what he doing
http://download.yousendit.com/2EE922A319A1594F
go the dell guy coming over to replace the mother board to fix the SD memory disk problem for my camera, should be here in the next hour or so, so i'll be out of business for a hour or so, assuming he knows what he doing
http://download.yousendit.com/2EE922A319A1594F
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