World Number One said:i go a few games back .
i look at career record against oppt.
i look at career batter vs pitcher matchup.
they are all equal in importance in my mind.
BasesWiz said:Don't forget to take a look at the bullpen. Very important, yet most often overlooked. Keep an eye on who has been used, who hasn't. Some guys will be available, some won't. Alot of times..you will actually see games where the team will actually be willing to sacrifice a game..just to have everything set up right for upcoming series.
BasesWiz said:Don't forget to take a look at the bullpen. Very important, yet most often overlooked. Keep an eye on who has been used, who hasn't. Some guys will be available, some won't. Alot of times..you will actually see games where the team will actually be willing to sacrifice a game..just to have everything set up right for upcoming series.
Glaken said:Chop, You wouldn't be referring to our beloved Andrew Jones would you?:drink:
choptalk said:He just struck out on a pitch low and away!!!! I never saw that before.
Im glad to hear you are a Braves fan Glaken. I hope we can put another banner on the center field wall this year. With a starting pitching, who knows maybe a World Series.
Glaken said:Have always been a fan since I could hear...even when they lost 100 games a year. I just bought "the twelve pack" ticket special, I picked several afternoon games since Turner Field is about a 15 minute walk from my office.
I noticed you signed up in the Tracking room for baseball...we should have fun this year; we'll have to have a "pre-game meeting" every now and again.
Take Care, G
choptalk said:Sounds great, Ive always been a Braves fan too, since I was old enough to watch TV, I remember when the ace of our staff was the late great Rick Junk Mahler. Do you remember the game against ST Louis that went 20 innings when the Cardinals ran out of pitchers they had to use utility infielder Jose Oqendo and he pitched 6 innings of scoreless relief, and in the bottem of the 20th the Braves threw a wild pitch on an intentional walk, and the winning runner scored. That had to be the low point in the history of the team.
honest abe said:if this post gets a little incoherent, please forgive me. it's 10pm here in the u.k. and i'm a little tipsy.
frank rosenthal said “The one thing in baseball that hasn’t changed is handicapping. 75-80% of MLB handicapping is based on the pitcher. The pitcher is the name of the game, he controls everything. Good pitching has always beat good hitting – then and now.”
but i read 'betting baseball' by michael l. murray and he said:
Each team’s total pitching strength is worth about 21%. If you consider that the average starter lasts 6 innings, then you have to assume that each team’s starting pitcher has about 14% influence on the total number of runs scored in the game.
so who do you think is right? or righter? i think the truth is somewhere in the middle.
like most people i want to be able to handicap with the least amount of work required. i believe the effect of the bullpen is underrated, but don't want to keep track of every key reliever. so i just use 'as a reliever' pitching stats on mlb.com and print them at the end of every month so i have records of year-to-date performance and monthly performance. this still seems pretty rudimentary.
also, for assessing pitching i use XERA and OPS R/G (OBA x SLG x 35) but consider other factors like Command Rate to spot trends.