WIZARD'S 2015 KENTUCKY DERBY
Churchill Downs
Saturday 05/02/2015
Stakes races are listed in post time order (ET)
Page 1 of 18
Forecast High
73 F
Low
53 F
Partly Sunny
Precip: 13%
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE VERIFY BEFORE WAGERING
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Grade 1
RACE 11 Post Time 6:34 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 Kentucky
Derby Presented By Yum! Brands | Purse: $ 2,000,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Trujillo E Cassidy J 126 $0 L 50-1
2 2 Carpe Diem Velazquez J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 8-1
3 3 Materiality Castellano J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 12-1
4 4 Tencendur Franco M Weaver G 126 $0 L 30-1
5 5 Danzig Moon Leparoux J Casse M 126 $0 L 30-1
6 6 Mubtaahij (IRE) Soumillon C de Kock M 126 $0 20-1
7 7 El Kabeir Borel C Terranova, II J 126 $0 L 30-1
8 8 Dortmund Garcia M Baffert B 126 $0 L 3-1
9 9 Bolo Bejarano R Gaines C 126 $0 L 30-1
10 10 Firing Line Stevens G Callaghan S 126 $0 L 12-1
11 11 Stanford Geroux F Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
12 12 International Star Mena M Maker M 126 $0 L 20-1
13 13 Itsaknockout Saez L Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
14 14 Keen Ice Desormeaux K Romans D 126 $0 L 50-1
15 15 Frosted Rosario J McLaughlin K 126 $0 L 15-1
16 16 War Story Talamo J Amoss T 126 $0 Blk-Off L 50-1
17 17 Mr. Z Vazquez R Lukas D 126 $0 L 50-1
18 18 American Pharoah Espinoza V Baffert B 126 $0 L 5-2
19 19 Upstart Ortiz J Violette, Jr. R 126 $0 L 15-1
20 20 Far Right Smith M Moquett R 126 $0 L 30-1
Pace Scenario
The post position draw shed a bit of light on how the Kentucky Derby figures to be run, with the speedy Ocho Ocho Ocho drawing
the inside post. He is expected to be asked for speed right out of the gate from there. Trainer Todd Pletcher cannot be very happy
that his more fancied duo of Carpe Diem and Materiality drew posts 2 and 3. Both have tactical speed and are drawn inside, which
means they will be sent along early as well, at risk of losing precious ground in the stampede past the finish line the first time.
Being hard used early is likely to take its toll on both late. Dortmund, who drew well, and Bolo are expected to be in the early
mix, as is Louisiana Derby pacesetter Stanford. Firing Line drew a perfect post position and has more than enough speed to get
involved early and sit a good stalk and pounce trip. Mr. Z and American Pharoah drew next to each other, which could lead to the
former chaufferring the latter through the opening stages. The pace stalkers figure to be Upstart, Tencendur, and Mubtaahij, with
El Kabeir likely trailing that group. The first wave of closers shapes up as Danzig Moon, Itsaknockout, and Frosted, who drew well
in 15, as he prefers rating outside of horses. The deep closers will be International Star, Keen Ice, War Story, and Far Right. It is
not a disadvantage that American Pharoah drew post 18. He customarily breaks sharply from the gate. Jockey Victor Espinoza
does not have to concern himself with the 2 horses breaking outside of him. Only Mr. Z, who breaks one stall inside of American
Pharoah, has early speed. The 6 Horses breaking from posts 11-16 do not have the speed of American Pharoah. It is possible
Espinoza lets Pharoah roll out of there, takes a glance to his left to see which jockeys are taking hold of their mounts, and lets
American Pharoah assume command or rate in close proximity to the front entering the clubhouse turn, similar to how he rode him
in the Arkansas Derby and how Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby . I expect Espinoza to be aggressive, not passive, and
ride American Pharoah like he is the best horse in the race.
M/L Jockey Trainer
1st Selection #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH 5-2 ESPINOZA V BAFFERT B
We have been down this road before. Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won three Kentucky Derbies in his illustrious career, has also
saddled the favorite for Americaís grandest race three times before. He brings a duo into this yearís running of the Kentucky
Derby that is as potent as the Indian Charlie-Real Quiet combo in 1998 or the tag team of Point Given and Congaree in 2001.
American Pharoah began his career in a maiden race at Del Mar over the Polytrack in August. This was the same surface his
trainer and owner had maligned in years past for its inconsistency, initially leading to Ahmed Zayat moving the majority of his
stable to the east coast. His west coast presence has gradually increased in recent years. Among his stableís stars were 2012
Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister and 2012 Haskell winner Paynter.
Bet down to 7/5 in his debut, American Pharoah chased the pace and tired late to split the field in a group of nine. Based on his
impressive showings in the morning, and the quality of the maiden race in which he debuted, Baffert was willing to try this colt in
the Del Mar Futurity on closing day of the boutique meet. Dispatched at 3-1, he grabbed control shortly after the start and never
looked back. It was a polished and complete effort from a lightly raced colt and quickly vaulted him up the list of best 2 year-olds
in the country. A routine win in the Frontrunner 24 days later at Santa Anita only cemented that status. It also set him up as a
likely heavy favorite in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile over the same oval in early November.
An injury suffered in preparation for the Juvenile sidelined this colt, and his status for the Triple Crown was unknown when the
calendar turned to 2015. While preparing for the Rebel, American Pharoah drew continued rave reviews regarding his training,
as clockers and observers regularly stood mouths agape with incredulity at the site of the bay colt. He ran to his training in
the aforementioned Rebel, dominating from start to finish, en route to a six length score. American Pharoah overcame several
obstacles that afternoon. It was reported after the race, that he had lost a shoe soon after the start. He was also racing on a
sloppy track for the first time and outside the confines of southern California at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs Arkansas.
Even after the Rebel rout, many doubted American Pharoahís ability to rate off the pace and to handle more legitimate competition.
A return engagement in the Natural State would include a meeting with Southwest winner Far Right and a good bit more speed was
entered in the Arkansas Derby. This established the scenario many skeptics yearned for, as American Pharoah was positioned
just off the pace by regular rider, and two-time Kentucky Derby winner, Victor Espinoza. With a decisive move on the far turn, he
wrested command from the vanquished Bridgetís Big Luvy, and entered the Oaklawn Park stretch in complete control. The final
margin of victory was 8 lengths, but that is rendered moot given the consummate ease with which he handled his opposition.
With a fourth consecutive win in the bag and continued improvement, American Pharoah seemingly took the path to Derby
favoritism right through Arkansas. His victory in Hot Springs evoked memories of 2012 Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister
winning the same race for the same connections. Baffert shrewdly sent American Pharoah directly to Kentucky after the Arkansas
Derby, affording him the opportunity to train at Churchill Downs for over 2 weeks. That training included a final workout on Sunday
(Insert any pertinent info about workout)
Baffert has come to Churchill Downs for the Derby with an eclectic mix of horses over the years. He has had the blazing fast
Sinister Minister, the steady grinding Real Quiet, the street fighter Silver Charm, the fleet-footed Bodemeister and the classy
and consistent Point Given among others. American Pharoah deserves more than to be labeled a carbon copy of a prior Baffert
participant. However, his brilliance is reminiscent of the very best the Hall of Famer has saddled for the Kentucky Derby. He isvery fast and seems to have no issues with stamina whatsoever. American Pharoah has the ability to make his competition look ordinary in company workouts in the morning and graded stakes races in the afternoon.
Roughly a month ago, just before his seasonal debut in the Rebel, a video of an American Pharoah workout at Santa Anita was
taken by HRTV. In it, he worked in company with a then-unraced maiden. He absolutely dusted that rival en route to a drill that
drew rave reviews. The world was introduced to that unraced maiden about a week later when he scored at first asking. His name
is Whiskey Ticket, and he joined the ranks of graded stake winners with a win at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby on April 18.
There has been no doubt about his brilliance when training, but the fact that Baffert has trained American Pharoah with talented
horses, only makes his preparation more impressive.
Regardless of how hard he or she may try, a trainer cannot simulate what occurs for a racehorse on Kentucky Derby day.
They race before a tumultuous crowd, the likes of which are otherwise never seen in this country. Thereís pageantry, pomp and
circumstance and eventually a horse race. One of the only places on the Derby trail where the setting is similar to Churchill
Downs is at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day. The field saddles in the infield and throngs of racing-crazed fans pack the century
old facility, both indoors and out. Numerous observers noted that the presumptive Derby favorite handled everything in stride
and seemed more than comfortable with the new circumstances. That will aid him tremendously at Churchill Downs.
On April 25, the Daily Racing Form reported that American Pharoah has been racing and training with a special foot plate covering
part of the sole of his left front foot. Baffert stated he will not remove it for the Derby because ìheís travelling so well with itî.
American Pharoah bruised the frog which is on the sole and acts as a shock absorber when a horseís foot hits the ground. Baffert
indicated that the bruise occurred several weeks before American Pharoahís first start as a 3 year old in the Rebel Stakes. He
has worn the plate since. With authoritative wins in the slop in the Rebel and on a dry track in the Arkansas Derby, and several
impressive workouts in between, in particular his 6 furlong drill at Churchill last Sunday, American Pharoah has shown no signs
of being compromised by wearing the special foot plate. It is clearly a non-issue when he breaks from the gate on Saturday.
Given the success that he had with his first half-dozen Kentucky Derby starters, some would view the 13-year period since Bob
Baffert won the nationís grandest race a drought. He has, however, seen his trainees post multiple top notch performances. His
ability to train a Derby winner has not waned, and a year like 2015 has probably only rekindled the flames. His hand is coming up
aces, and no member of his squadron of talented sophomores is regarded more highly than American Pharoah and rightfully so.
2nd Selection # 8 DORTMUND 3-1 GARCIA M BAFFERT B
In virtually any other year, a runner with the resume of a horse like Dortmund would loom a prohibitive favorite in the Kentucky
Derby. Despite his gargantuan size and ability to match, a perfect 6 for 6 with 4 straight graded stakes victories, Dortmund seems
to live in the shadow of stable-mate American Pharoah. Nonetheless, he is a very serious win candidate and boasts credentials
that would check every proverbial box for even the most discriminating horseplayer.
Given owner Kaleem Shah's penchant for large auction purchases, Dortmund was a bargain at the price of $140,000. He
worked :10 and 1/5 at the Fasig-Tipton Maryland sale in May 2014, a time that was the fastest of all 2 year-olds in training who
drilled one furlong. A son of 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown, he is out of a dam who was Grade III placed
during her days on the racetrack. Her prior foals to race are non-descript, with three of them minor winners. However, from the
time he debuted in early November, Dortmund showed that he had incredible potential.
Dortmund's debut was a smashing win at 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita. He rated comfortably off the pace and exploded around
the turn to win by nearly five lengths. The quality of the rivals he faced that day was proven when eventual runner-up Hero Ten
All broke his maiden a month later at Los Alamitos.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sent a couple of horses to Churchill Downs for closing weekend of the fall meet last November,
and Dortmund was among them. He landed in a N1X allowance event and was bet down to 2/5 favoritism. Drawn outside going
a mile, regular rider Martin Garcia set him up stalking the pace before asking him to move on the far turn. The response was
immediate when given his cue, as Dortmund gathered in his rivals and quickly established a comfortable lead. He powered clear
to a 7+ length win and was subsequently bet down to 9-1 in the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which was
conducted that weekend.
Baffert has run many of his top 2 year-olds through the years in the Hollywood Futurity (Point Given, Lookin at Lucky), which
is now run at Los Alamitos and has been rebranded the Los Alamitos Futurity. Dortmund was pointed there and he ran into a
pair of talented juveniles in that compact field. In a stretch-long battle, Dortmund proved best by a head over Firing Line and Mr.
Z. It was a workmanlike win that showed Dortmund would not back down from a battle. He once again effectively rated off the
pace and showed dogged determination in the stretch drive.
With an eye on starting him three times before the Kentucky Derby, Baffert decided on the Bob Lewis as Dortmund's 3 year-old
debut. He would run into a familiar rival in Firing Line, and the race flow would set up a showdown that had a slightly different look
and feel. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens took Firing Line back in the opening stages and asked him to move into the far turn.
That set up Firing Line outside of the behemoth Dortmund, and the diminutive rival seized command in upper stretch. Dortmund
re-rallied and was up in time to win by a head once again. The 1-2 finishers in the Lewis wound up over 20 lengths clear of their
rivals and posted a sparkling final time of 1:42 and 1/5, which compared favorably to other two turn races on the afternoon.
Given that he had earned consecutive wins in gritty fashion, Dortmund's popularity rose incredibly through February and into
March. He was initially pointed to the Santa Anita Derby after the Lewis win, but Baffert decided to give him a try in the San
Felipe. Drawn towards the inside in a field loaded with speed, Dortmund was asked to run right out of the gate by Martin Garcia.
He procured the early lead when his rivals deferred and was comfortably clear on the backstretch. As his rivals made their bids,
Dortmund fought them off one-by-one, seemingly gathering momentum with each powerful stride. It was yet another win that
served notice he is a horse whose potential has not been reached.
The Santa Anita Derby featured a compact field and the lead looked to be Dortmund's for the taking. He was drawn on the rail,
and race caller Trevor Denman noted that he bobbled slightly after the start. It ended up that he lost a shoe during that brief
episode, but the forsaken footwear did not deter this colt one bit. His victory was a tour de force of sorts, as he pulled clear at
the quarter pole and bounded home a convincing winner. The Santa Anita Derby has yielded Kentucky Derby winners in two of
the last three years. Dortmund's credentials look to be as good, if not better than, I'll Have Another and California Chrome.
One quality that you like to see in a Derby aspirant is toughness; specifically, whether or not that horse can stand up to a battle.
Dortmund has been locked in battle on multiple occasions in the past, and has come out on the winning end each and every
time. He won a stretch-long fight over Mr. Z and Firing Line in the Los Al Futurity, then bested Firing Line once again in the Bob
Lewis by coming back when one length behind in mid-stretch.
Despite having shown the ability to win from off the pace as a juvenile, some have lingering doubts about Dortmund rating and
being as effective in the Kentucky Derby. The likelihood that he is able to get the lead early at Churchill Downs seems minimal.
However, that should not dissuade one from considering Dortmund a serious win candidate. He arrived at Churchill two weeks
before the Run for the Roses and that gave him ample time to train under the Twin Spires. If he can rekindle the magic he created
on the same surface six months earlier, the roses are well within his reach.
3rd Selection #15 FROSTED 15-1 ROSARIO J MCLAUGHLIN K
When you possess the regal bloodlines of the standard Godolphin Stable runner, expectations are usually very high. Frosted is a
son of all-world sire Tapit, and is out of the productive mare Fast Cookie, who herself was a stakes winner on grass and graded
stake winner on dirt. Thus, Frosted was expected to be among Godolphin's very best 2 year-olds from the 2012 crop.
Frosted's career began in a deep and competitive maiden event on the Travers undercard. The headliners in that race included
the rich auction purchase Ludicrous, as well as second time starter Waging War. Frosted was dispatched at 7-1 and ran a credible
race to rally for the place. He, and a number of rivals, had to avoid a fallen foe in mid-stretch and that hurt the momentum for
every runner but the eventual winner.
Following another runner-up finish at second asking, this time at Belmont, Frosted made his first start at Aqueduct on the second
day of the fall meet. He was part of a heavily favored entry and wound up going off as the odds on favorite. Showing more tactical
speed in a race run at a modest pace, Frosted took command on the turn and drew away with authority to a 5 1/4 length victory.
Clearly, having races under his belt had made Frosted a better horse, and he was now seemingly ready to live up to his potential.
The Remsen has become a much-maligned race each year since most alumni of it have made little impact on the Triple Crown
trail. That did not stop trainers from entering, as a dozen 2 year olds were entered in the late November staple. Frosted was
drawn widest of all in stall 13, but still went off the 9/5 favorite. Working against him in addition to the poor post position was
a clear track bias on the final Saturday of the fall meet. The rail was absolutely the place to be throughout that program, from
General Bellamy's wire-to-wire win in the opener to Private Zone's romp in the Cigar Mile. Frosted took the worst of it in terms
of track profile from the outset, and eventually covered 61 feet more than the winner, Leave the Light On. According to Trakus,
the digital data provider which tracks ground coverage and speed of horses at partner tracks, 61 feet is roughly 9 lengths. So,
despite covering 9 lengths more than the winner Leave the Light On, Frosted was bested by only a half-length. This performance
served notice that Frosted was a certain player on the Kentucky Derby trail.
In his 3 year old debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Favoritism wound up going to Frosted, despite the presence of Breeders'
Cup Juvenile runner-up Upstart. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. wound up yielding precious ground to Upstart in the opening half-mile.
That gave his main rival the jump, and Frosted was unable to reel him in late. It was an excellent starting point to his sophomore
season, and showed that he still had great upside moving forward.
The Fountain of Youth was billed as the rematch between Upstart and Frosted, though the former received the bulk of the wagering
support. As Frosted effortlessly assumed command at the 3/16ths mark, it looked as if he was soon to run away and hide. Then,
almost as quickly as he had gained the lead, he relinquished it in mid-stretch while tiring badly. Something undoubtedly seemed
amiss, as he shortened stride so severely that he wound up 4th. Questions did indeed abound afterwards. Was it the blinkers he had donned for the first time? Did he have distance limitations that were now finally becoming exposed? Did something occur physically that caused such an unsightly stretch drive? The answers were unclear, but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin announced that Frosted would stay on the Derby trail and point to either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial. Befuddled but undeterred, McLaughlin made every effort to understand and eliminate whatever problems played a part in
Frosted's disappointing Fountain of Youth performance: Frosted would receive a rider switch to Joel Rosario, a "tweaking" to his blinkers allowing a wider field of vision, and minor throat surgery to assure proper breathing.
Back at the site of his narrow miss in the prior fall's Remsen, Frosted was bet down to 2-1 in a competitive edition of the WoodMemorial. Rating kindly off the pace, he remained outside through the opening 6 furlongs of the Wood. New rider Joel Rosario asked him to move on the far turn, and he began gathering momentum in the vicinity of the 5/16ths mark. By the time the field
straightened away for the run to the wire, Frosted had dead aim on Tencendur, who had outlasted the other forwardly placed runners. In a final quarter-mile run in :24.32, Frosted collared Tencendur and powered clear to a decisive two-length score. It was clearly his best effort to date, and erased the bad memories of the Fountain of Youth flop. McLaughlin stamped himself one of the best trainers in the country years ago. His exploits in the Kentucky Derby have been limited, though his first starter ever, Closing Argument in 2005, finished a strong second to Giacomo. None of his prior entrants
came in off the type of performance delivered by Frosted, and that makes him his trainer's best chance yet. McLaughlin himself is coming into the race in fine fettle, as his barn has had a month of April to remember. From April 1-24, his stable won with over 40% of its starters between Aqueduct, Keeneland and Pimlico. This reversed a troubling trend from earlier during the winter.
In fact, from January 24-March 14, McLaughlin was just 1-33 at Gulfstream Park. Frosted's two defeats to begin his 3 year-oldcampaign came during this dreadful stretch. For his and McLaughlin's sake, those days look to be in the rearview mirror. With a future Hall of Famer, Joel Rosario, on his back who has won two of the last six Triple Crown races, Frosted is a major
contender. He has no issues being outside, so a wide trip will not hurt his chances. He will also benefit if the pace is particularly
fast, and is in position to take another step forward off of his recent victory. That makes him dangerous in this ultra competitive
edition of the Run for the Roses.
4th Selection # 6 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) 20-1 SOUMILLON C DE KOCK M
The Kentucky Derby has brought us some of the most unique storylines of any sporting event over the years. This Kentucky
Derby brings together an Irish-bred horse, prepared in Dubai, trained by a South African and ridden by a Belgian. A victory by
Mubtaahij would likely eclipse any that has preceded him. The 2015 "mystery" horse brings forth serious credentials that extend
beyond his steadily improving performances on the racetrack.
Mubtaahij was bred by the Dunmore Stud in Ireland. He is by Dubawi, a multiple Grade I winner who took the Irish 2000 Guineas
during his brief but accomplished career. Ironically, Dubawi was trained by Saeed bin Suroor, the principal trainer for Sheikh
Mohammed al Maktoum's Godolphin Stable. It is bin Suroor who has conditioned the majority of foreign imports to try the Kentucky
Derby, including China Visit, Curule, Worldly Manner, Desert Party and Regal Ransom. As a stallion, Dubawi has produced a
staggering 16 Group I winners, including Al Kazeem, Makfi and Poet's Voice. Mubtaahij is not the only Grade I winner produced
by his dam, the Irish-bred Pennegale. Among her earlier foals was 2010 Prix de l'Opera winner Lily of the Valley. That 2000
meter fall staple is annually among the strongest races run in Europe. There is no doubt that stamina influences flow deeply
in Mubtaahij's pedigree.
During the summer and fall months, trainer Mike de Kock keeps a string at Newmarket in England. The majority of his 2 year-olds
debut there, and that was the case for Mubtaahij. He was dismissed in his first two starts in the wagering and did little running to
prove he was a horse of any quality. In search of improvement from a colt he held in high regard, de Kock freshened Mubtaahij
for the rich Dubai International Racing Carnival, which begins each January and ends with the Dubai World Cup.
In his first start on the new dirt surface at Meydan in Dubai, Mubtaahij registered an impressive win at one mile. He broke slowly
in a bulky field and recovered nicely to grind out a win by nearly a length. This put him on the fast track to the UAE Triple Crown,
a three-race series that culminates with the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night. After winning the 2000 Guineas Trial, a race
in which he showed increased early speed, de Kock pointed him to the 2000 Guineas. He came up a head short that evening,
with the Godolphin-owned Maftool holding him off by a narrow margin.
Exiting his first defeat since relocating to Dubai, Mubtaahij was expected to rebound in the Al Bastakiya. Among his new rivals
was the South American-based Sir Fever, a Uruguayan four year-old who had won 10 races in a row before relocating to Dubai.
Positioned just outside of the pacesetters early, Mubtaahij stalked the pace intently under jockey Dane O'Neill. He was asked
to move in the vicinity of the 3 furlong mark, and he advanced readily towards the frontrunners. As he confronted Sir Fever, the
battle looked to be joined for an exciting stretch drive. That excitement fizzled immediately, as Mubtaahij dismissed his rival with
tremendous disdain. He was soon in front and powered home a comfortable winner.
The whispers regarding a potential Kentucky Derby try for Mubtaahij became actual chatter after his Al Bastakiya triumph. With
a win in the UAE Derby, that chatter would turn to roars. The challengers in that affair would be robust, as Maftool and Sir Fever
would line up along with the Japanese raider Golden Barows. Mubtaahij drew the rail in the 1900 meter event, an outpost that de
Kock did not prefer given his colt's penchant for racing outside. For the first time, he would be ridden by Christophe Soumillon,
an international superstar who has had success in the saddle around the globe. Soumillon kept his mount in a perfect spot just
behind the leaders through the opening half-mile. He waited patiently until the 400 meter mark and angled out in upper stretch
before kicking strongly clear late. As the field neared the wire, Mubtaahij had put four, then six, then eight lengths on his rivals
before being taken in hand late. The smashing victory enabled Soumillon to have a gander at the crowd and share his jubilation
for the powerful performance. De Kock was asked afterwards if the next stop would be in Kentucky, and he confirmed that while
adding that he would learn the words to "My Old Kentucky Home."
Mubtaahij was shipped to the US in mid-April and stopped in Chicago for a brief quarantine. De Kock opted to keep him stabled
at Arlington Park after his arrival in the Windy City, in part because he would be able to train on the all-weather Polytrack surface.
His final workout came seven days before the Kentucky Derby, as he sizzled a final quarter of a half-mile workout in :23. As
noted in the Bloodhorse, "de Kock employs Fine Equnity, a GPS-based training management tracking system to record morning
work times, heart rates and more. The system recorded four furlongs in :49.70, with a final three furlongs in :35.30."
While every Derby entrant that has shipped to Kentucky from Dubai has failed, the circumstances are different for Mubtaahij.
He is conditioned by a trainer who has had tremendous international success over the years. In fact, de Kock has started six
horses in the United States in the last 15 years. Each of those starters has finished in the money, with one victory from the halfdozen.
Among his 2nd place finishers was Eagle Mountain in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Turf, Archipenko in the 2008 Arlington
Million and The Apache in the 2013 Arlington Million. He has won races such as the Dubai Duty Free, the QEII Cup in Singapore
and the Hong Kong Champions Mile. After originally scheduling his arrival in the US for April 24, de Kock delayed it so that he
could saddle runners at Turffontein in his native South Africa. It was a prudent move, as he picked up two more Group I wins
to add to his ever-expanding collection.
When interviewed before the Kentucky Derby, de Kock mentioned that the feed that Mubtaahij regularly eats is not FDA approved.
That would require a change for a generally laid-back horse that trains without shoes and lives in an open pen. When the race
itself begins, he will face dynamics the likes of which he has never seen before. He has not been in a field larger than 11, and
has not faced an early pace as taxing as the one that usually exists in the Kentucky Derby. To prepare him for those hurdles,
Soumillon positioned him behind rivals in the UAE Derby, which forced him to take more kick-back than he had before. He
handled it with alacrity and showed the maturation and progression you want to see from a sophomore at this time of year.
If a horse is to win the Kentucky Derby off of a UAE Derby start, it would stand to reason that runner would come from a successful
international barn. Obstacles such as the compressed schedule, coupled with the travel and changed logistics including food and
stabling are often overwhelming. However, it is the brilliant conditioning of a horseman like de Kock, and the raw talent Mubtaahij
has shown that inspire confidence. He will face 7 rivals who come into the Derby off victories at 1 1/8 miles; the furthest each
have ever run. Mubtaahij has the significant advantage of victories in his last 2 starts travelling a 1/16th of mile longer. Despite
landing in one of the deepest and most competitive Derby fields in recent memory, Mubtaahij looms a dangerous rival who stands
a fair chance to have a strong impact on the outcome.
5th Selection #10 FIRING LINE 12-1 STEVENS G CALLAGHAN S
One of the challenges for Southern California-based horsemen this winter and spring was avoiding the titans from the barn of
Bob Baffert. Luckily, American Pharoah was pointed to races outside of the Golden State, but Simon Callaghan could not avoid
a showdown with Dortmund for Firing Line. Short of winning, Firing Line ran about as well as he could have in the Bob Lewis
back in early February.
Firing Line is a son of 2010 Arkansas Derby winner Line of David. He was purchased for $240,000 at the Keeneland 2 yearold
in training sale in April 2014, a staggering 120 times his sire's modest $2,000 stud fee. Thus, it is safe to say that this colt
made a very strong impression when going through the ring. His dam was Grade I placed during a career where she banked
just over $200,000. She has produced 2 winners from as many to race, though the first one lacked the quality of Firing Line. The
second dam of Firing Line was a two-time winner who produced graded stake winning router Mint Lane. That ability to go two
turns, coupled with his dam being Grade I placed at 9 furlongs leads you to believe that there's stamina in this pedigree.
Firing Line was bet down to 11-10 on debut at Santa Anita just before the Breeders' Cup, and wound up a game second after
getting off to a poor start. Winning six furlong races from off the pace in Arcadia is no easy task, and this colt came very close to
doing so. He came back just over a month later to win a MSW event by a comfortable margin at Del Mar, handling the Polytrack
in Oceanside with great ease. That win was impressive enough for Callaghan to try him against Grade I foes in the Los Alamitos
Futurity in mid-December. He was slated to run into the aforementioned Dortmund as well as the Grade I placed Mr. Z. Firing
Line was given plenty of support, and he battled through strong fractions from start to finish. Though he wound up beaten by a
head, he ran every bit as well as Dortmund, with this diminutive colt nearly beating him to the wire.
Firing Line's rematch with Dortmund came in the Bob Lewis in early February at Santa Anita. That marked Firing Line's return
to Santa Anita, and he put forth his best effort yet. His new rider was Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, who decided to take him a
bit more off the pace than he had been across town in the Los Alamitos Futurity. As the field rounded the far turn, Firing Line
assumed command and looked to be well on his way to handing the heavily favored Dortmund his first defeat. In the final furlong,
the resurgent Dortmund began to rally on the inside and was up in time to beat Firing Line by a head. Firing Line was maligned
afterwards for having stamina issues, but the fractions and final time of the race indicate that he was entitled to tire.
In an effort to avoid Dortmund, Firing Line was sent to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby in late March. He out-classed his rivals
in that field and pulled clear late to win by over 14 lengths. His final time of 1:47 and 1/5 was eye-catching, but the main track was
'souped up', producing faster than normal times all afternoon. Regardless of the time, it was an impressive effort given the way
he took heat from the inside throughout and pulled clear late. The rivals he was facing were far from legitimate graded stakes
caliber types, but he handled them with consummate ease.
Callaghan is a young trainer who has had success since coming to America. He won two Grade I races in 2014 with Fashion
Plate, and has scored multiple Grade I wins on turf. Firing Line will be his first Kentucky Derby starter, and he is coming in
relatively fresh off of the Sunland score. Having Gary Stevens aboard is a major credit, as he has nearly regained the standing
he had at his career zenith. The versatility he has shown with Stevens aboard is a major positive. The bulky field and taxing pace
will make his job tougher, but there are reasons to feel Firing Line can hang on for a share.
6th Selection # 3 MATERIALITY 12-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Some say rules are made to be broken. At least that's what backers of the undefeated Materiality will say about his Kentucky
Derby hopes, given that he is looking to break a 113 year-old curse. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby
without racing as a 2 year-old.
Materiality was purchased for $400,000 at the Fasig-Tipton MIdlantic Sale in May 2014. He worked :10 and 2/5 for an eighthmile
at the Under Tack Show of that sale, zipping around the Timonium bullring with good speed. His pedigree is outstanding, as
there are route influences on both sides, namely his Belmont Stakes winning sire Afleet Alex. His dam, Wildwood Flower, was
a three-time winner as a juvenile and scored in the Piedmont at Golden Gate in her final start at 2. She came back as a three
year-old and snagged graded stake placing's in the Santa Ysabel and Beaumont. Materiality is her fifth foal to race, and each of
the prior four are winners. The best of them is 2014 Gazelle winner My Miss Sophia, who is slated to seek a Grade I win in the
La Troienne on Kentucky Oaks day. Materiality's second dam produced 7 winners including multiple graded stake winner Eye
of the Tiger. Among her progeny was a stakes-placed filly by Distant View named Expanse. She produced 2010 Travers winner
Afleet Express, who was also by Afleet Alex. That makes Afleet Express and Materiality sons of the same sire but different dams
who happened to share the same dam. Clearly, Materiality's pedigree is among the best in this field.
It took until early January for Materiality to make his debut, which came in a 6 furlong event on the main track at Gulfstream
Park. He dusted a field of 7 rivals, which included subsequent maiden breaker Easy to Say, who scored handily in late February.
Eyeing a variety of options before a final Derby prep, trainer Todd Pletcher chose an overnight stake race at Gulfstream called
the Islamorada in early March. He would meet stablemate Stanford, who had shown stakes caliber ability up to that point in his
brief career. Materiality rated comfortably outside of his rival and burst clear late to win by almost six lengths, extending his stride
with ease and fluidity. As if he needed another Derby aspirant, Pletcher now had this flashy and lightly raced colt to point to the
Florida Derby to replace the injured Khozan.
The Florida Derby pitted Materiality against Upstart and stablemate Itsaknockout. He was bet down to 9/5 and enjoyed a trip
that was quite similar to that of the Islamorada 22 days before. This time, the rival chasing him into the lane was a graded stake
winner and even money favorite. Materiality rebuked Upstart and held gamely to win by just over a length. That effort made him
a major Kentucky Derby player even with the negatives that come with his limited schedule and late start to his career.
Even with a win in 2010 with Super Saver, the story of Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby reads more like a horror novel
than a "feel good" story. He has one win from forty starters, and only six of those entrants finished in the money. For a trainer
who regularly saddles multiple runners in each edition of the Derby, these numbers are horrendous. He will once again saddle
multiple horses in 2015, with as many as four Pletcher trainees slated to start.
Is Pletcher's lack of success in the Kentucky Derby enough to ignore Materiality as a real contender? Likely no, given that the
equine athlete in this case has rightfully earned strong credentials. The larger concern is whether a horse can overcome the
obstacles of a compressed schedule while facing a field larger than 9 for the first time at a racetrack outside of Hallandale,
Florida. When you begin to factor in all that is seemingly going against Materiality, he becomes tough to embrace as a potential
winner. His talent is undeniable, and it is quite possible that he will end up being one of the best Kentucky Derby participants
down the line. However, the likelihood he can win this race on the first Saturday in May is minimal, as the task can best be
described as "too much, too soon."
7th Selection #19 UPSTART 15-1 ORTIZ J VIOLETTE, JR. R
Ten years elapsed between trainer Rick Violette saddling his first Kentucky Derby starter (Read the Footnotes (2004) and Samraat
(2014). Both made serious moves towards the lead in the final half-mile, only to come up empty late. A year after his last entrant
started, he is back with Upstart, whose credentials are as good, if not better, than the two aforementioned colts.
Upstart is by Flatter, a Claiborne Farm stallion who has produced Grade I winner Flat Out and graded stake winners Classic
Point, Apart and Kobe's Back. Owner Ralph Evans, a regular client of Violette, purchased Upstart for $130,000 at the FasigTipton
Saratoga NY bred preferred yearling sale in 2013. Upstart is the second foal to race out of a dam who never started. She
has produced one other winner, a gelding named Party On, who broke his maiden for $25,000 at Aqueduct in March. Upstart's
2nd dam was stakes-placed during a career where she banked $79,000. She dropped 8 winners, the best of which was Grade II
winner Josh's Madelyn. While Josh's Madelyn's best races came sprinting, she was also stakes placed around two turns. Thus,
there is a bit of a stamina influence deep in Upstart's dam-side pedigree.
Like Samraat, Upstart is a New York bred who began his career with a splash. Upstart won a New York bred maiden race with
authority, exploding through a narrow spot to score by better than five lengths. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in that race,
Tizquick and Breakin the Fever, have since competed favorably against NY bred stakes rivals.
Following that flashy debut win, Violette did something he infrequently does with Upstart. He brought him back just 9 days later for
the Funny Cide, run on the inaugural NY bred Saratoga Showcase. Sent off as the 3/2 second choice, Upstart reeled in the speedy
Bustin It in the closing stages. That rival was fresh off a win in the Rockville Centre where he handily defeated impressive maiden
winner International Star. With two wins in less than a fortnight, Upstart was clearly a horse ready to try open company. His final
time of 1:16.15 was better than four seconds faster than 2 year-old fillies went in the Seeking the Ante later that day (1:20.27).
The first open company opportunity for Upstart came in the Champagne at Belmont Park. Rain the night before and throughout
the morning rendered "big sandy" a sloppy mess. Facing flashy debut winner Daredevil, Upstart was made the 3rd choice at
odds of 7/2. Jockey Jose Ortiz assumed the pace would be robust in the Champagne, but it was nothing more than ordinary.
Even after sunshine began to dry the surface out, the half-mile split of the Champagne was 1/5th of a second slower than that
of the Frizette earlier on that afternoon. Upstart still finished with interest to check in second behind Daredevil, showing quite
clearly that he belonged against open company rivals.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile was the logical next spot for Upstart, and he was bet down to 6-1 in a bulky field of eleven. He drew
a difficult outside post and wound up covering the second most ground of any participant. After moving into contention on the
far turn, he was unable to hold off Texas Red and wound up missing second in a photo finish with Carpe Diem. The consistency
Upstart showed throughout his 2 year-old campaign was unquestionable after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and made him a horse
worth following on the path to Kentucky.
Unlike Samraat, who prepared for the Kentucky Derby in New York, Upstart was sent to Florida to train at Palm Meadows and
race at Gulfstream Park. His three year-old debut came in the Holy Bull, and he posted arguably his best effort to date. Stalking
outside from the start, Upstart assumed command off the far turn and drew away with authority to score by over five lengths. It
was a decisive win and one that made him a serious long-term prospect for the Derby. After going off the second choice in the
Holy Bull, Upstart was bet down to 9-10 in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Ortiz once again kept him close to the pace, and he
found his way into an ideal spot at the quarter pole. Through an unsightly stretch drive, he prevailed over Itsaknockout, only to be
disqualified for interference at the furlong grounds. It was a decision that drew negative reviews from most observers, and other
questions arose. The way the Fountain of Youth ended fostered concerns that Upstart would have issues with 9 furlongs or more.
The Florida Derby was supposed to provide Upstart one final opportunity to answer questions about his Derby candidacy. He
wound up second to the real "upstart", the Todd Pletcher-trained Materiality. It was a performance that would best be labeled
"good" but lacked the flash or substance of final efforts posted by horses like American Pharoah, Dortmund or Frosted.
Can a New York bred who has shown chinks in his armor of late win the Kentucky Derby for a trainer who has not won a Grade
I race in eight years? It seems like a proposition that would demand a hearty price. The consistency and class he has shown is
tremendous, but the substance is lacking enough to relegate Upstart to the minor slots of exotic wagers.
8th Selection # 4 TENCENDUR 30-1 FRANCO M WEAVER G
For a Louisville boy who grew up with dreams of winning the Kentucky Derby, this year will be particularly special for George
Weaver. He will saddle his first Kentucky Derby starter with recent Wood Memorial runner-up Tencendur, and that will prompt
many to pay more attention to a trainer who most regard as underrated.
Tencendur is one of a precious few homebreds in this year's Kentucky Derby field, with the most highly regarded being the
betting favorite American Pharoah. Philip Birsh bred his mare Still Secret to Warrior's Reward, a Grade I winner who is off to a
strong start at stud. He stands for $25,000 at Spendthrift Farm because of his regal pedigree. Still Secret was a debut winner
Page 9 of 18
who dropped her next two starts, but she has now foaled four winners from as many to race. The best of them was NY bred dirt
sprinter Mother Russia, who banked over $500,000 for Linda Rice. Still Secret's dam was unraced, but produced 5 winners from
6 foals to race. As far as NY breds go, Tencendur has a solid pedigree.
Rarely do you assume that a MSW event in mid-December at Aqueduct could include a pair of first time starters that would
eventually end up on the Derby trail. That ended up being the case with the 2nd race on December 12, as the winner, Far From
Over, won by a nose with Tencendur third at 5-1. With a major rider change in his second start, this colt was able to break his
maiden and he did so over two rivals who were soon to break their maidens afterwards as well. The muddy racetrack at Aqueduct
in January provided a new challenge for the lightly raced Tencendur, and he handled it well with a late charge that led to a
winner's circle visit. With entry level allowance races in New York in short supply during a harsh winter, Weaver was forced to try
Tencendur in graded stakes races. The first of those was the Withers in early February. On a surface that favored runners on the
inside, Tencendur was wide most of the way before spinning his wheels in the lane. It was hardly an embarrassing performance,
but showed that he was still short of the best 3 year-olds racing in New York during the winter.
Weaver could have easily taken a step back after the Withers and re-routed Tencendur to softer spots. He opted to keep him on
the Derby trail and that meant a try in the Gotham. Once again racing over a surface that featured a strong rail, he was wide the
entire way before ending up 5th beaten almost four lengths. Again, he showed signs of life before coming up wanting late. With
the rail being the ideal spot on that strip, covering the 2nd widest trip in a field of ten was far from ideal for Tencendur.
The Wood Memorial featured a smaller field than did the Gotham, but the major players were also more talented horses.
Tencendur had another new rider aboard, as Jose Ortiz took over for Cornelio Velasquez. Stuck with the outside post, another
wide trip seemed in the offing. Ortiz did an excellent job riding him aggressively early, and he wound up showing more early
speed than he had in any prior start. This put him in an ideal position around the far turn, assuming command in the vicinity of the
quarter-pole. As the field straightened away for the stretch drive, eventual winner Frosted had this NY bred to catch and gathered
him in with every stride. Even though beaten, it was a vastly improved performance from Tencendur, and one that proved he
is worthy of a try in the Kentucky Derby.
Despite the strong effort in the Wood, as a non-winner of two lifetime eligible 3 year-old, Tencendur lacks real win credentials.
However, his ability to rate early and make one run makes him a late threat for a minor placing. It will take additional improvement,
but this colt still has upside and enters off a lifetime best performance. Few can boast those positive qualities, even in this bulky
and eclectic field.
9th Selection #14 KEEN ICE 50-1 DESORMEAUX K ROMANS D
Between the 2010 and 2012 Kentucky Derbies, trainer Dale Romans earned in-the-money finishes in 5 out of 7 Triple Crown
races. That run of success began when Paddy O'Prado checked in second in the 2010 Kentucky Derby and continued with First
Dude in that year's Preakness and Belmont. Shackleford came back to win the 2011 Preakness to give Romans his first Triple
Crown win, and Dullahan wound up third in the Kentucky Derby 50 weeks later. It was a very strong stretch for a trainer who has
made a career out of winning major races with overlooked horses. That is his objective once again with Keen Ice.
Purchased for $120,000 at the Keeneland September Sale in 2013, Keen Ice is a son of Preakness, Breeders' Cup Classic and
Dubai World Cup winner Curlin. The best progeny of Curlin include 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice and 2015 Santa Anita
Oaks winner Stellar Wind. His runners have proven competent on turf and dirt and have few, if any, issues with endurance. Keen
Ice is out of an unraced dam who is a half to Salvator Mile winner Coal Play. In Coal Play's best career effort, he narrowly missed
to 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Big Brown in the Haskell Invitational. There is little else in Keen Ice's
immediate pedigree of note, but he has seemingly already outrun it.
Undeserving of making the trip to Saratoga with Romans' main string, Keen Ice debuted last August at Ellis Park. He was a
non-factor in that affair, but returned just 13 days later to break his maiden at Churchill Downs at one mile. Romans generally
needs little excuse to dip his toes in the deep waters of graded stakes races, so Keen Ice wound up in the Breeders' Futurity
and Remsen to end his 2 year-old campaign. Already showing signs of being a one-run closer with no early speed, he lagged
behind early in each of those races before making late moves. In the Remsen, he was up for 3rd, a long way behind 1-2 finishers
Leave the Light On and Frosted. Apprentice Israel Rodriguez rode him rather astutely, saving every inch of ground on a surface
that strongly favored inside paths.
Keen Ice wintered at Gulfstream and got a chance at showing Kentucky Derby prospects in the Holy Bull in January. He was in
his customary early spot, but never fired en route to splitting the field of nine. Believing that the longer stretch would help him
uncoil his late run, Romans sent him to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star four weeks later. While he did get significantly more pace
to run at in that event, he could not cash in on a perfect trip and ride by James Graham. A 3rd place finish was all he achieved.
With his Kentucky Derby qualifying points increasing, he needed an on the board finish in a final prep to have a chance at a spot
in the starting gate. The Louisiana Derby was packed with speed on paper, and that led many to believe Keen Ice was a serious
win candidate. He dropped back early under Graham, but the pace never materialized. It was a struggle for him to land in the
superfecta after launching a wide move on the far turn.
It would take a defection or two from the top 20 horses with Derby aspirations to get Keen Ice into the field. He got that defection
when Madefromlucky was declared nine days before the race. Romans and owner Jerry Crawford (Donegal Racing) jumped at
the opportunity. A final workout was scheduled for Sunday morning, and it drew rave reviews from observers. His connections
felt confident afterwards, as Romans told the Bloodhorse, "It was perfect. He looked happy out there." Crawford, ever the realist,
said of his charge's chances: "He hasn't run fast enough to win the Derby, but he loves this track." He added: "The final eighth
of a mile can be a graveyard for some horses, and he'll be closing like a freight train."
There is no doubt that Keen Ice will be on the move late. Further, a hot pace would greatly help his chances. Given Romans' history
in these races and at this particular racetrack, it is sage to keep an eye on Keen Ice as a trifecta/superfecta filler at huge odds.
10th Selection #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR 20-1 MENA M MAKER M
Nearly 45 weeks after romping in a turf sprint to clear the maiden ranks in his debut, an under-sized New York-bred son of
Fusaichi Pegasus will enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate as the leading points earner in the field of 20. It is a story that fits
thoroughbred racing, which has shown clearly through the years to never "judge a book by its cover."
International Star is the rare runner for Ken and Sarah Ramsey that is not by their prize stallion Kitten's Joy. In fact, he was
actually not bred by Ramsey either, as he was purchased at the Midlantic fall sale at Timonium in September 2013. Despite a
largely modest pedigree, he was purchased for $85,000, over 11 times the stud fee of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi
Pegasus. The dam side of his pedigree includes the Maryland-bred Fools in Love, who racked up $240,000 in earnings during
her career. She won the Orleans at Delta Downs in addition to placing in the Maryland Million Lassie, Maryland Million Distaff
and the Sorority. International Star's dam, Parlez, earned $93,000 during a career where she won three times. She has produced
four winners in total, none of whom earned any black type beyond the aforementioned Fools in Love.
International Star was debuted on dirt, likely because trainer Mike Maker wanted him to be able to go six furlongs. Dirt races in
mid-June are generally run at five furlongs or less, but International Star gave the impression of being a more distance-interested
colt right from the start. His debut was a thing of beauty, as he sat just off the pace and kicked clear authoritatively in the lane.
Just over three weeks after that win, he was the favorite in the Rockville Centre for 2 year-olds on the final card of the Belmont
spring-summer meet. While no match for eventual winner Bustin It, he showed he could handle conventional dirt and wound up
over 13 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher.
Three of the final four races International Star contested as a juvenile were on both turf and synthetic, including a win in Canada
and a graded stake placing in the US. His 9th place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf was somewhat disappointing, even
if he was dismissed at 36-1. With the clock ticking on 2014, Maker gave him one more start, and it came on the main track at
Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He wound up a non-descript fourth at 15-1, never threatening eventual winner
El Kabeir.
Ramsey and Maker undoubtedly entered 2015 thinking they had a competent turf horse that could benefit from getting a try or
two on synthetic surfaces throughout North America. When this colt won the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds in his 3 year old debut,
plans suddenly changed, as he showed something that afternoon he had not previously in two dirt outings. Jockey Miguel Mena
got him to a comfortable spot on the inside and he saved ground throughout, eventually pulling clear late to register a 9-1 upset.
Facing largely the same horses five weeks later in the Risen Star, he was once again questioned by the wagering public and
wound up winning again, this time at 7/2. The Lecomte win had not been a fluke, and he once again rode the rail to a clear victory.
The Louisiana Derby was set to feature a deeper and more competitive field than the Risen Star or Lecomte. Invaders such as
Stanford for Todd Pletcher and Mr. Z for D. Wayne Lukas added to the group, but International Star once again shined brightest
in the end. Riding the rail for a 3rd straight time, he snuck through an opening in upper stretch and wore down the aforementioned
Stanford to score by a neck. The win increased his total Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points to 161, the best of any sophomore
heading to the Run for the Roses.
It has been owner Ken Ramsey's lifelong dream to win the Kentucky Derby. International Star is the atypical Ramsey entrant in
the race, as he has legitimate dirt form and pedigree. That makes him decidedly different from horses like Dean's Kitten and We
Miss Artie, who were bred for turf and synthetic surfaces. He is the Ramsey's second straight Louisiana Derby winner to contest
the Kentucky Derby, but his consistency and seasoning is more significant than that of Vicar's In Trouble.
The greatest concerns when it comes to International Star are how he will negotiate a bulky field, and whether he can handle
this steep class jump. While running down Stanford was clearly an accomplishment, that colt is no better than third string among
Todd Pletcher's Derby entrants. This Derby field being so strong makes you skeptical of International Star's prospects, as the
Louisiana-based 3 year-olds looked a cut below this winter.
11th Selection # 9 BOLO 30-1 BEJARANO R GAINES C
There is no medication for Derby fever. When Bolo won the Eddie Logan with a head-turning stretch bid, he was considered a
potential Kentucky Derby starter, with it all depending on his trying conventional dirt. Despite being defeated twice in subsequent
dirt starts, he has made his way to Kentucky and will attempt to take a monstrous step forward in his toughest objective yet.
Bolo is by Temple City, a Grade III winner who was Grade I placed in the 2010 Hollywood Turf Cup. He went to stud at his
owner's Spendthrift Farm, in part because he is one of the only remaining sons of Dynaformer with graded stakes ability. He
has made a splash with his freshman crop, as Startup Nation won the Grade II With Anticipation in 2014, and Papacoolpapacool
and Saratoga Heater added stakes wins of their own. The dam of Bolo, Aspen Mountain, was winless from two tries, and has
produced three winners from four to race. She is kin to 5 winners, but the most popular of her siblings was the unraced Mining
My Own. She ended up producing 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Thus, without their being any stars in Bolo's
pedigree, it has some interesting elements.
Bolo began his career on the turf at Del Mar at their new fall meet last November. He broke sideways at the start, and wound up
entering the first turn last of the field of 11. Jockey Mike Smith found himself in a very tough spot from there, but found a way to
get clear in the final half-mile. He wound up going wide around the far turn and reaching contention in the vicinity of the quarter
pole. The wide trip took its toll late, as he flattened out in the lane. With a cleaner start, Bolo took control of his 2nd start and
won going away. Among the vanquished rivals in his wake was a compact colt named Metaboss. That rival would come back to
break his maiden in his next start before winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate in February.
When Bolo won the aforementioned Eddie Logan, he earned many deserved accolades. He had gotten involved in a very strong
pace that afternoon before kicking clear in the lane. It was as authoritative a victory as you will ever see from a lightly raced 2
year-old on the turf. Trainer Carla Gaines now faced the quandary of whether to move this son of Temple City to dirt for the series
of races leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. He suffered a setback in January and reportedly did not train well over the Santa
Anita main track. Eventually, he wound up in the San Felipe in early March, even after missing some training time. Admittedly a
short horse by Gaines' training standards, Bolo ran into the behemoth Dortmund from the barn of Bob Baffert. The pace scenario
worked in Dortmund's favor, and squarely against Bolo. Thus, his effort to finish 3rd was quite impressive.
In a smaller field in the Santa Anita Derby, Bolo had Mike Smith back in the irons. Surprisingly, Smith took him back off the early
pace, and he was last of six after a quarter-mile. Not only was this a position that was foreign to the horse, he once again spotted
precious ground to the bulky and powerful Dortmund. Bolo finished with some interest to check in third, but the also-rans in that
field looked to be spinning their wheels late.
Gaines did not initially indicate that Bolo would go to the Kentucky Derby, but confirmed him for the race two weeks before the
race. He had his final workout at Santa Anita and shipped into Churchill Downs 6 days in advance of the Derby. Rafael Bejarano
has the call, and one has to wonder if he will be allowed to show the early speed that made him such an interesting horse. The
pace will undoubtedly be quicker than any he has seen before, but this colt has shown the ability to withstand strenuous early
fractions. Whether he is a horse who has been thrust into this race because of Derby fever, or one that has a real chance is the
major question. He will offer value at the windows, but is a dicey proposition as a win candidate.
12th Selection # 2 CARPE DIEM 8-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
When you purchase a racehorse for $1.6 million and name him "Carpe Diem", a Latin aphorism for "seize the day", you obviously
have very high expectations. Thus, when Carpe Diem made it to the races on closing day of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was
expected to go off a heavy favorite. Armed with a work tab full of bullets for the meet's top trainer Todd Pletcher, Carpe Diem
rewarded his backers with a wire-to-wire win as the odds on favorite.
A son of Giant's Causeway, out of the stakes winner Rebridled Dreams, Carpe Diem worked a blazing :10 and 1/5 at the OBS
March sale in 2014. He is kin to Grade I winner Breeders' Futurity winner JB's Thunder. In just his second career start, Carpe
Diem became Rebridled Dreams' 2nd foal to win that prestigious affair. Among his other siblings is Doncaster Rover, a groupplaced
turf horse in England who banked over $200,000. Between his strong pedigree and fast workout during the under tack
show, it is no wonder that the price soared to $1.6 million when the gavel fell in Ocala.
With Keeneland's return to a conventional dirt main track, the Claiborne Farm Breeders' Futurity became a logical spot for Carpe
Diem's first try against winners. He was bet down to 2-1 in the field of 12, including the dual graded stake placed Mr. Z and recent
Iroquois runner-up Bold Conquest. Jockey John Velazquez positioned Carpe Diem comfortably off the early pace before asking
him to move around the far turn. In an instant, his charge gathered in the leaders and assumed command at the top of the stretch.
He put a four-length margin on his rivals in the blink of an eye, eventually reporting home a 6 1/4 length winner.
A week before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, probable race favorite American Pharoah was declared from the field due to injury.
That left Carpe Diem and his uncoupled stable-mate, Daredevil, to battle for favoritism. Carpe Diem took the money, with a
closing price of 9/5. The strenuous early pace in the Juvenile left him much farther off the pace than ever before, falling 7 lengths
back after a half-mile. Velazquez did what he could to keep his charge in striking range, but Carpe Diem mostly spun his wheels
around the far turn and into the lane. When the field straightened away for the stretch drive, Carpe Diem kicked in and finished
with great interest, just getting up to win a photo for the place money. He was no threat to the winner, Texas Red, and, when all
was said and done, had run a vastly inferior race to 3rd place finisher Upstart. However, it was notable that Carpe Diem handled
some adversity and validated his flashy performances at Keeneland and Saratoga.
This year, Pletcher opted to give Carpe Diem but two preps in advance of the Kentucky Derby. The first came in the Tampa
Bay Derby, a race Pletcher used with Super Saver, WinStar Farm's 2010 Kentucky Derby winner. The deep, tiring composition
of Tampa Bay Downs' main track is considered a great stamina-builder in young horses. Carpe Diem was made a heavy even
money favorite, and there were few anxious moments during his 5-length rout. The foes he beat in that race included the 1-2
finishers from the Sam F. Davis, the local prep for the centerpiece of the meet, the Tampa Bay Derby.
With his handy score in the Breeders' Futurity in mind, Pletcher plotted a course back to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass,
moved up a week to the first Saturday in April. The new position on the calendar would give Carpe Diem an extra week off after
the Blue Grass, and the race was set to be run on a new surface that he took to kindly six months before. The wagering dollars
poured in on him and he wound up 2/5 at the break. Facing a field that was vastly inferior on paper, he scored a workmanlike win
by three lengths, his fourth score in five career outings. It was a win that was more utilitarian than flashy. Unfortunately, flashy is
what sells this time of year, and Carpe Diem's stock largely dropped after the Blue Grass win.
With American Pharoah and Dortmund racking up powerful victories, and both Materiality and Frosted scoring decisively,
the quality of Carpe Diem's two wins have been called into question. His races as a three year-old have been somewhat
mundane. They have come against weak foes and the victories have been earned with favorable pace scenarios and under ideal
circumstances. Carpe Diem's progress as a three-year old does not appear to have either met expectations and/or matched that
of key rivals. Off two soft preps, he lands in the toughest spot of his career. Carpe Diem does not inspire confidence in me as
one of the likely winners of this year's Kentucky Derby.
13th Selection # 5 DANZIG MOON 30-1 LEPAROUX J CASSE M
Equipped with blue chip stock on a yearly basis, trainer Mark Casse has been eyed by many as a trainer with a Kentucky Derby
win in his future. Danzig Moon will be just his third starter in the Run for the Roses, and will attempt to better the performances
of Casse's two prior entrants. Those runners (Seaside Retreat - 2005, Prospective - 2012) were 10th and 18th, respectively, so
the bar has been set relatively low.
Jack Oxley won the 2001 Kentucky Derby with Monarchos when John T. Ward, Jr. was his private trainer. He now uses Casse
exclusively, and they have had some success, winning graded stakes races with Dynamic Impact, Funny Proposition and
Delightful Mary. Oxley shelled out $160,000 for this Ontario bred, and you can imagine that a potential try in the Queen's Plate
was a long range idea. His pedigree has a great deal of Phipps Stable influence on the dam-side a tad down the line. His 3rd dam
produced Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Inside Information as well as Educated Risk. His 2nd dam was graded stake placed and
was the dam of current Canadian stallions Philanthropist and Defer. Those two were competent on multiple surfaces during their
time on the racetrack. Danzig Moon's dam was winless in her career, but has produced two winners thus far as a broodmare.
Among the progeny of Malibu Moon to have success are 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb and recent Grade I winners Devil
May Care and Life at Ten. In sum, Danzig Moon has a pedigree that can be considered respectable.
It took until his third career start for Danzig Moon to break his maiden, as he suffered defeats at Churchill Downs and Keeneland
at the beginning of his career. He was well-backed in both and showed signs of life, but was unable to cash in late. He put it all
together on the undercard of the Donn Handicap, and wound up being one of the only runners on that program to come from a
bit off the pace. With ample time after his maiden win, Casse decided to give him a try in graded stake races. He ran into the
highly touted Carpe Diem, as well as recent Sam F. Davis winner Ocean Knight in the Tampa Bay Derby back in early March.
The class jump proved too much for him to handle, as he was never involved and eventually trudged home a badly beaten fourth.
With the bulk of Casse's stable landing at Keeneland each spring, starting Danzig Moon in the Blue Grass seemed like a sensible
option. He had already run at Keeneland and would be making his third start off a layoff. Though he never put a real challenge
into eventual winner Carpe Diem, he rallied gamely to finish second at odds of 15-1. He covered the widest trip of any runner in
that field, losing precious ground around the far turn. The performance served as validation for his connections, who believed he
was of graded stake caliber when they sent him to Tampa Bay Downs one month before.
Given that he earned sufficient points to qualify for a start in the Kentucky Derby, Danzig Moon has been pointed to it since the
Blue Grass. He has trained and raced at Churchill Downs before and will find the surroundings a homecoming of sorts. While he
is a better horse than the slow, plodding juvenile that raced under the Twin Spires in November, he is still far from a legitimate
Kentucky Derby contender. A minor placing would seem his ceiling, and even that is being optimistic.
14th Selection #20 FAR RIGHT 30-1 SMITH M MOQUETT R
It has been ten years since the deep closer Giacomo picked his way through the pack to register a huge upset win with Mike
Smith in the irons. Mike Smith will bid for a second Kentucky Derby victory with this deep closing ridgling, who he has piloted
three times this year.
Far Right began his career in way that can conservatively be called humble. He was purchased for $2,500 as a weanling at
Keeneland in January 2013. His sire was a useful racehorse whose greatest career triumph was in the Salvator Mile at Monmouth
Park, a marginal sire with no real proven offspring. The dam of Far Right was an unraced daughter of 2002 Breeders' Cup
Juvenile winner Vindication, and he is her first foal to race. There were no black type winners in the second family, which leads
you to the conclusion that Far Right has no pedigree whatsoever.
His debut race came in April of 2014 at Keeneland, and he ran off in the post parade. Once corralled and loaded into the gate,
he wound up a clear 2nd at 9-1 to handy winner Conquest Tsunami. His trainer at the time was William Helmbrecht, who reentered
him quickly in a MSW event at Churchill Downs two weeks later. He posted another second-place finish, this time behind
subsequent graded stake winner Cinco Charlie. Out of that race, Far Right was purchased privately by Harry Rosenblum and
did not re-surface until mid-September at Churchill Downs. He registered an upset win that afternoon to break his maiden, and
then dropped three straight decisions to end his 2 year-old campaign. The best of those defeats came in the Delta Jackpot in
Louisiana back in November, as he rallied late after steadying hard on the far turn.
Trainer Ron Moquett is based in Arkansas during the winter, and he decided to start Far Right in the Smarty Jones, the first of
a series of four races for 3 year-olds culminating in the Arkansas Debry. Dispatched at 5/2, Far Right finished strongly up the
inside to collar the erratic favorite Mr. Z. This victory was another improved effort for the son of Notional and his closing kick was
strong. In fact, the chart caller noted it by describing his running line with the term "full of run." Weather dogged the Southwest
Stakes one month later when racing was cancelled and it was re-scheduled 6 days after the original date. Rain rendered the
main track sloppy and he wound up making a bold move to get up in time again.
After winning the Southwest a week after the original date, Moquett opted to skip the Rebel and point his charge to the Arkansas
Derby. That would mean he'd have a date with division leader American Pharoah, who had won the Rebel in impressive fashion.
The disadvantage Far Right will always face against a speedy rival like American Pharoah is a tactical one. Far Right wound up
13 lengths off the pace through the opening half-mile of the Arkansas Derby, spotting the race favorite a chasm of ground. Far
Right made his customary late charge in the end and wound up getting up for second in the final strides. He never came remotely
close to threatening the winner, but did pass every other rival on the way to his runner-up finish.
Far Right will return to Churchill, the site of his maiden win, for his 2nd start off a layoff in the Kentucky Derby. He arrived early to
train under the Twin Spires and posted his final drill 8 days before the race. Smith was mentioned for other mounts in the leadup
to the race, but opted to stay on Far Right in Louisville. The early tempo in the Derby is likely to be strong which could aid in
setting up a closer like Far Right for a strong stretch rally. However, he will need a great deal of racing luck and improvement the
likes of which he has not indicated he can offer. Thus, he seems destined to make little more than a minor impact.
15th Selection # 7 EL KABEIR 30-1 BOREL C TERRANOVA, II J
For most of 2015, Zayat Stables has had potential Kentucky Derby participants preparing in New York, California and Arkansas.
Obviously, the most fancied is American Pharoah, but El Kabeir has quietly enjoyed a strong start to the year. He now makes
the return trip to Churchill Downs that his connections dreamt of when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club here six months ago.
El Kabeir is by 2007 Florida Derby winner Scat Daddy, who contested that yearís Kentucky Derby. He has become a productive
sire and has seen his sons Daddy Long Legs and Daddy Nose Best contest the Kentucky Derby. He has also produced multiple
graded stake winner on the grass, Lady of Shamrock and ace turf sprinter, No Nay Never. El Kabeirís dam, Great Venue, was
unraced, and he is her first foal to make it to the racetrack. His 2nd dam, Rose Colored Lady, was an 8 time winner during
a career spent mostly in Ohio. The majority of El Kabeirís dam-side pedigree features Ohio bred stalwarts, including eventual
Grade II winner Too Much Bling. His dam was kin to 5 winners, four of whom scored stakes wins at some point in their careers.
The majority of them were better sprinting, so there is some stamina concern based on El Kabeirís pedigree.
When this colt went to the post in a maiden race on the final Saturday of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was expected to be the
main competition for Royal Son. That rival had checked in a strong 2nd on Whitney day for trainer Todd Pletcher and now had
an outside post from which he could stalk the pace. Unfortunately for Royal Son, no one told El Kabeir he was just a secondary
player, as he wrested control of the race from the outset and never looked back. Riding a rail that carried nearly every horse who
raced on it to victory that afternoon, he pulled strongly clear in the lane to win by over 10 lengths. Trainer John Terranova was
jubilant afterwards and announced immediately that the next stop would be the Champagne. Stuck inside on a wet racetrack
with a deep rail, El Kabeir broke slowly before rushing up in the opening stages of the Champagne. He gave way late and wound
Page 14 of 18
up fourth at 5/2. This was a disappointing effort, and afterwards his connections announced that he would not pursue a start
in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile.
Following a 2nd career defeat at the heels of Blofeld, El Kabeir was sent to Churchill Downs for the aforementioned Kentucky
Jockey Club on the penultimate day of the fall meet. He received a rider change to Calvin Borel, who aggressively sent him to
the lead. He turned back every rival along the way, eventually holding on by a head. Having a win over the Churchill main track
is always an asset, and El Kabeir showed his tenacity in that late November score.
The New York route to Kentucky was chosen by El Kabeirís connections at the beginning of the year. With four objectives
between New Yearís Day and the first Saturday in May, he would have ample time to prepare and would end up with far more
seasoning than his peers. His handy win in the Jerome came against a very weak field, and he wound up getting upset at 1-2
five weeks later in the Withers. In that event, he chased the pace outside on a surface where the rail was very strong, and that
worked against him in crunch time. The Gotham would serve as a shot at redemption for El Kabeir, and he delivered with a strong
performance from off the pace. Jockey CC Lopez took him back in the opening stages and he finished powerfully to score by
almost three lengths. This newfound running style made him a more appealing horse, as he proved he would be able to negotiate
traffic and pass horses in crunch time.
The Wood Memorial is generally a tougher race than the Gotham, and this year was no exception. El Kabeir was 2-1 against
Daredevil and Frosted, and wound up finishing a dull third. Lopez once again dragged him back early, and the 1-2 finishers had
sprinted clear once this colt hit his stride. After looking like they had found the magic potion one race earlier, now the patient
tactics looked imprudent.
Borel will be back aboard El Kabeir in the Derby, and that will mark the first time they have partnered since the Kentucky Jockey
Club. Borelís Derby exploits need not be mentioned, and the public will surely find their way here knowing about the prior success
of the Cajun known affectionately as ìBoo Boo.î In truth, El Kabeir has not progressed as a three year-old the way he was
expected to, and is quite possibly not much better than he was when he won at Churchill in late November. Even an in the money
finish would be an accomplishment.
16th Selection #16 WAR STORY 50-1 TALAMO J AMOSS T
If you believed that the only boisterous, outspoken owner with a horse in this year's Kentucky Derby field is Ahmed Zayat, you
missed one. Ron Paolucci, owner of Loooch Racing Stables has shown three parts bravado for each part common sense since
he burst on the scene with Ria Antonia's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies win in 2013. Between running her against males in the
Preakness and sharing his wagers on her via social media, his panache has been considered the stuff of legend. Now, he has
landed on the biggest scene in racing, as War Story will be his first starter in the Kentucky Derby.
War Story is a son of Northern Afleet, a $7,500 stallion who produced 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, as well
as 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Amazaombie. War Story was purchased at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May 2014
after he worked a quarter-mile in :22 and 2/5 at the under tack show. He is out of a dam who was winless, but she produced
stakes caliber turfer Draw Two. War Story's second dam produced stakes winner Yoursmineours, who herself produced graded
stake winning router Shared Property and the stakes placed Whiskey Romeo. For a horse by an inexpensive stallion with a nondescript
first female family, War Story has a reasonably strong pedigree.
War Story debuted on the opening Saturday of the Churchill fall meet last November. He scored an impressive victory from off
the pace at 14-1, and Loooch saw enough in that effort to purchase him privately and transfer him to the barn of Tom Amoss.
That would mean a trip to the bayou for the winter, as Amoss keeps the bulk of his stable at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. In his
first start around two turns, he scored a handy win, pulling clear late after tracking the pace. Given that he was expected to win
that afternoon, it was a polished performance that showed his connections had made an astute private purchase.
With a pair of wins behind him, War Story was pointed to the graded stakes races on the trail to the Louisiana Derby. The first
of them was the Lecomte in mid-January, and this gelding was bet down to 5-1 in that bulky field. For the third consecutive start,
he had some issues leaving the starting gate, and that left him a tad farther off the pace than he had been in his first two outings.
Nonetheless, he recovered to reach contention around the far turn, only to be outfinished late by the rail-skimming International
Star. The 4-5 wide move he made around the bend was prolonged and impressive, leaving most observers thinking he could
reverse this defeat 5 weeks later in the Risen Star.
Piloted by new rider Kent Desormeaux in the Risen Star, War Story was bet down to 7/2 in a field of nine. In a virtual replay of the
Lecomte, War Story was away slowly then very wide around the far turn while International Star enjoyed a clear trip up the inside.
He came up a length short, but again covered significantly more ground than the winner after losing ground at the outset. Given
the difficulties he had faced in his last two starts, Paolucci felt confident that his charge would rebound in the Louisiana Derby.
Given his expectations that War Story would redeem himself in the Louisiana Derby, he offered to make a side bet with Ken
Ramsey that War Story would finish better than Ramsey's International Star. Fortunately, for Paolucci, Ramsey did not take that bet. War Story was a flat fourth after going wide on the far turn, spinning his wheels late to check in third at 2-1. He was compromised by a sluggish pace that afternoon, but lacked the same punch he had shown in prior outings at Fair Grounds.
The case was closed at this point. He is not at the level of a horse like International Star, who will also be a longshot in the
Kentucky Derby.War Story posted his penultimate workout before the Kentucky Derby 10 days before the race. He went out before the designated
training time, as trainer Tom Amoss opted to work him before dawn. Observers who had arrived early noted that he looked dull
in his workout, but Amoss assured them afterwards that he "knows the difference between training and racing." That could be
what Amoss wants some to believe, but it looks to be more of a tall tale than a factual statement. Had he worked strongly, it
still would have been tough to trust War Story. He becomes a complete throw-out with poor training and running lines that seem
to be stagnating.
17th Selection #17 MR. Z 50-1 VAZQUEZ R LUKAS D
The far-flung Zayat Stables operation will be represented by three runners in the 141st Kentucky Derby. They come from different
parts of the country, each horse is a different color and they have different trainers. The least heralded of the three is Mr. Z, a
1-12 colt who has had many close brushes with graded stake glory.
Mr. Z is by Malibu Moon, the sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. He was purchased for $135,000 at the Fasig-Tipton
October Kentucky sale in 2013, a paltry purchase price given the $95,000 stud fee for this top notch stallion. The dam-side of Mr.
Z's pedigree is heavily tilted towards turf, as his second dam produced Breeders' Cup Turf winner Chief Bearhart, Grade I turf
winner Explosive Red, and Canadian Grade II winner Ruby Ransom (dam of graded stakes winning turfer Strut the Stage). In
fact, his second dam was named Canadian Broodmare of the Year. This turf-oriented pedigree likely drove buyers away, which
explains his purchase price. Nonetheless, it is a pedigree worth noting for the stamina influences on the dam-side.
Mr. Z began his career early, as he debuted at Churchill Downs in June of his 2 year-old season. He was an impressive winner on
debut, besting a field that included subsequent stake winner Hashtag Bourbon. A busy summer and fall followed from there, as
this chestnut colt would make 7 more starts before the calendar turned to 2015. Following that maiden win, he narrowly missed
in the Sanford and checked in a strong second in the Saratoga Special. In those efforts, he showed the ability to rate and make
one run, a quality many young 2 year-olds do not possess.
As the distances increased during Mr. Z's juvenile campaign, his form slid a bit. A poor performance in the Iroquois at Churchill
was followed by a distant runner-up finish in the Breeders' Futurity. He showed plenty of speed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
before tiring late, then narrowly missed a score in the Delta Jackpot. Much like Will Take Charge, who raced for D. Wayne Lukas
in 2013, Mr. Z seemed to be thriving on racing. He improved with each passing start, eventually ending his season with a narrow
miss in the Los Alamitos Futurity to the highly regarded Dortmund and Firing Line.
Lukas is stabled each winter at Oaklawn, so the prep races there were targeted. Things got started early for Mr. Z, as he landed
in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in mid-January. He put forth his usual early speed and turned for home firmly in command. As
the field neared the wire, he veered out badly, nearly unseating jockey Jon Court. He wound up third beaten just over two lengths
and his performance raised eyebrows given the inexplicable stretch antics. Lukas stayed the course afterwards and pointed him
to the logical next stop for an Arkansas-based sophomore, the Southwest Stakes. Racing over a sloppy surface for the first time,
he set a robust pace before tiring late and getting caught by Smarty Jones winner Far Right. This was another situation where
Mr. Z was brave in defeat, using his natural speed to clear the field from the far outside post, and nearly staying the trip.
With Zayat color bearer American Pharoah headed to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Mr. Z was re-routed to the Louisiana Derby.
An equipment change was planned, as his white blinkers were coming off for the trip to Fair Grounds. A rider switch to Kent
Desormeaux also happened, and neither of these changes paid off. He was ridden passively early and allowed a rival to establish
a soft pace. Two weeks later, the blinkers were back on, and yet another new rider had the call. Ramon Vazquez did not get Mr.
Z terribly involved early in the Arkansas Derby, but he stayed within striking distance to the far turn. He was no match for the
aforementioned American Pharoah, but narrowly lost a stretch-long battle to Far Right for the place.
Mr. Z has been asked a lot throughout his brief career. He comes in with the most starts of any Derby entrant (12), and he is also
on the longest losing streak (11). While tenacity and speed are among his best traits, he is simply not at the level of a potential
Derby winner. A minor placing is his ceiling, but even that seems a tad far fetched.
18th Selection #11 STANFORD 30-1 GEROUX F PLETCHER T
Nowadays it would not be a Kentucky Derby without Todd Pletcher trainees comprising at least 20% of the field. This year will
be no exception, as Pletcher is slated to saddle four horses in the Run for the Roses. They will each bid to become his second
winner in a race where he has one win from his first forty starters.
Page 16 of 18
Stanford has little to no pedigree on his dam-side. He is by Malibu Moon, one of the top stallions in the game and sire of 2013
Kentucky Derby winner Orb. His dam was unraced and is kin to multiple winner Opening Move, who earned just over $80,000
in his career. It takes going back to the 3rd generation of his dam-side pedigree for any black type, as his 2nd dam was a half
to 2001 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Johannesburg. It was not his pedigree that led Stonestreet Stables to purchase this colt
for $550,000 at the Barretts March Sale in 2014. It happened to be his blazing :9 and 4/5 workout at the under tack portion of
that sale that garnered support. It was the co-sale topper among workouts and he wound up the 4th highest priced horse in the
sale. The workout led to lofty expectations, even with his non-descript pedigree.
Stanford debuted with Pletcher's "B" team at Monmouth in the summer of 2014. Bet down to 3/5, he overcame a slow break
to win going away from well off the pace under Joe Bravo. That win earned him a trip to the Saratoga Special six weeks later.
Facing significantly tougher competition, Stanford once again got out of the gate slowly before launching a wide move on the far
turn. He ultimately tired in the final three furlongs, but hardly embarrassed himself in what was a stern test.
Following the Saratoga Special, Stanford was shelved by trainer Todd Pletcher because of an injury. Before his comeback race
in early February at Gulfstream, Pletcher was interviewed in the paddock by Caton Bredar of HRTV. He was set to saddle two
runners in that N1X optional claimer and assured Bredar that, despite Blame Jim being favored, Stanford was the fitter of his two
horses and the one he expected to run well. That statement proved prescient, as Stanford rolled by his beleaguered stablemate
at the furlong grounds to win going away.
Stuck with a potential sprinter in early March, Pletcher took the gamble that Stanford could get 9 furlongs. His first opportunity
came in the Islamorada, an overnight stake that also featured his stablemate Materiality. Stanford was favored in the compact
field of six, and Gulfstream's leading rider Javier Castellano put him on the lead right from the start. After veering out at the
entry to the backstretch, he opened up a comfortable lead heading to the far turn. Materiality confronted him in the vicinity of
the quarter-pole, and he immediately gave way. There was certainly a statement made by a Pletcher entrant in the race, but
it came from Materiality.
With two runners for the Florida Derby, many Pletcher trainees were forced to take their shows on the road for final Derby preps.
Stanford was sent to New Orleans for the Louisiana Derby in late March. Piloted by new jockey Florent Geroux, he broke from
the inside and once again showed ample early speed. The fractions he set were nothing more than moderate, but he got the
best of the other early pacesetters by the time the field had gone 7 furlongs. He was collared late by International Star, who
capped a perfect Fair Grounds meet with wins in all three major Kentucky Derby prep races. There was no doubt that Stanford
had improved off of his first route start and was now beginning to live up to his rich purchase price.
Stanford has early speed, but has landed in a field with horses that are faster than he. The early pace figures from his last two
starts cast a great deal of doubt on whether he can stand up to any early pressure going beyond one mile. He will also spot the
field valuable experience with only two starts around two turns. It is always nice to see a 3 year-old improving with each passing
start, but it would take a quantum leap forward for Stanford to be a threat in the Run for the Roses.
19th Selection #13 ITSAKNOCKOUT 30-1 SAEZ L PLETCHER T
In days gone by, the two most popular spectator sports were horse racing and boxing. The first Saturday in May will be considered
a "throwback" day of sorts as the Kentucky Derby will highlight the afternoon, while the heavily anticipated bout between Floyd
Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will take place later on in the evening. The hunch play for many Derby bettors will be this son
of Lemon Drop Kid because of his boxing-oriented name.
Itsaknockout was purchased for $350,000 20 months ago at Saratoga, a hefty price tag for connections that are known to shell out
large sums for auction purchases. Lemon Drop Kid has produced 5 Grade I winners as a stallion, and they have been victorious
on turf, dirt and synthetics. That versatility has kept his book full of top quality mares, and his stud fee at $40,000. The dam of
Itsaknockout was a minor winner who earned $24,000 on the racetrack and has now produced 2 winners from as many foals to
hit the track. She was out of a 3 time winner and 6 figure earner who produced graded stake winning turfer Rush Bay, who was
also graded stakes placed on dirt. His best race, though, came in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill in 2006 when he finished
fourth behind Red Rocks. There is stamina in Itsaknockout's pedigree and that certainly contributed to his hearty purchase price.
He needed more time than normal to make it to the races, and wound up debuting in December of last year at Gulfstream. In a
driving finish, he was up by a nose at 5-1, but his victory hardly garnered a great deal of attention. Thus, trainer Todd Pletcher
opted to run him in an entry level Allowance event at Gulfstream in January. Itsaknockout won handily from just off the pace
and rewarded his backers as the 5/2 favorite. It was the type of performance that Pletcher trainees have posted with regularity
at Gulfstream over the years. Pletcher is forced each winter to orchestrate plans for an endless supply of stakes caliber 3 yearolds,
and Itsaknockout was lucky enough to earn a start at home in the Fountain of Youth. He was the third choice in a race
that included Holy Bull winner Upstart and Remsen runner-up Frosted. Regular rider Luis Saez patiently took ahold of him early
and Intsaknockoout rated kindly off the demanding pace. When Upstart reached the front in mid-stretch, there was brief contact
between him and Itsaknockout. In a controversial decision, the stewards disqualified Upstart and elevated Itsaknockout to the top spot. Suddenly, a horse who had not debuted until December that was making just his 3rd career start in late February had a ticket to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby.
The Florida Derby was Itsaknockout's final prep for his engagement in the commonwealth. He was being asked to validate the
improvement he had shown 5 weeks before in the Fountain of Youth. Unfortunately for his backers, he was unable to do so and
wound up a listless 4th at 5-1. Not only was he unable to keep up with Materiality and Upstart, but he was thoroughly dusted for
3rd by an otherwise ordinary horse in Ami's Flatter. There was no discernible excuse for his sluggish performance, other than
to assume that he is simply not of Grade I caliber.
For a brief period after the Florida Derby, the principal owner of Starlight Racing, Jack Wolf, questioned whether Itsaknockout
was worthy of starting in the Kentucky Derby. He said to Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal, "Looking at these
(handicapping) sheet numbers on these other horses, I mean, good Lord, this horse will be 50-1. I'm going to have to do a lot of
convincing to myself. The only way I think we can make a case is that the last race you just have to completely draw a line through."
With Itsaknockout still projected to start, Wolf must have done the proper convincing of himself. However, his comments are
accurate and his charge is a deserving longshot. He will need to completely reverse his form after the poor Florida Derby outing,
and that is unlikely in a race that provides a test unlike any he has ever seen.
20th Selection # 1 OCHO OCHO OCHO 50-1 TRUJILLO E CASSIDY J
There was doubt in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby about whether Ocho Ocho Ocho would start. He was confirmed
as of Wednesday morning, despite two subpar outings in 2015 that have erased any luster he earned as a juvenile. The winner
of the Grade III Delta Jackpot in November, he enters on a two-race losing streak after falling to Dortmund in California and
Carpe Diem in Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho was purchased for $200,000 at the OBS April sale a year ago. He is by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street
Sense, who has produced Grade I winners Sweet Reason, Aubby K and Callback. Ocho Ocho Ocho is a half to Private Ensign,
a stake caliber mare who raced for Siena Farm in the care of Dale Romans and then Todd Pletcher. The second family on the
damside of this pedigree can be traced back to a number of Phipps Stable stalwarts from years past. His second dam, Pennant
Champion, is a sister of Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Miner's Mark, as well as Grade I winners Traditionally and Our Emblem.
She was also kin to Proud and True, a sister of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner My Flag. Pennant Champion herself
produced Grade III turf winner Animal Spirits, as well as Broad Pennant, the dam of Grade II winner Interactif. Ocho Ocho Ocho
worked: 10 and 1/5 at the under tack portion of the sale and still went for the bargain price of $200,000 given his regal pedigree.
With a nifty win from just off the pace, Ocho Ocho Ocho began his career in style for trainer James Cassidy. He was entered
for the turf on the Breeders' Cup undercard in early November, but overnight rain moved that race to the main track. That left
this colt a heavy favorite, and he won handily while staying close to a hot pace. Cassidy wanted to give him a chance against
tougher foes late in his two year-old season, so he shipped him to Vinton, Louisiana for the Delta Jackpot. He won a stirring
stretch battle with Mr. Z, who had competed well against graded stakes foes throughout 2014. Mike Smith was aboard for the
first time, and he was able to get him to relax nicely just off the pace in the opening stages. Cassidy decided to give him a brief
break afterwards with an eye on two preps before a potential trip to Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho's return to the races as a three year-old was delayed and did not occur until early March in the San Felipe. It
pitted him against Dortmund and the highly regarded allowance winner Prospect Park. After a slow break from the gate, he was
steadied heading to the first turn under Mike Smith. He wound up tiring badly in the final half-mile and beat just two rivals home.
Ocho was beaten over 15 lengths in the end, and certainly did not show what was expected given his 4-1 odds. Cassidy did not
waver afterwards and said that he would be pointed to a final prep either in California or somewhere around the country. He settled
on the Blue Grass, where he ran into the heavily favored Carpe Diem. Ridden for the first time by Santiago Gonzalez, he was put
on the lead from an inside post and backed the pace down in the opening half-mile. When Carpe Diem was asked to run, Ocho
Ocho Ocho put up little to no resistance. He held on for third, but once again fell short of the expectations that existed beforehand.
In each and every year, a three year-old is on the Kentucky Derby trail who had made a splash the year before. The pack tends
to catch up to many of them who were just a tad more precocious, and Ocho Ocho Ocho can be categorized as such. There have
been negative reports on his training during the week leading up to the Derby, and that is significant when you couple it with his
poor recent form. He is a pace factor at best and is not expected to make any impact when the final results are made official.
Wagering Strategy
I am not going to suggest making a win bet on American Pharoah as the 5-2 morning line favorite. I will instead attack the Exactas
and Trifecta's and one superfecta play if you want to take a shot for a potential score.
************************************************** ********
* $2 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over ALL = $38
* $20 Exacta (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (8) DORTMUND, reverse for $10
* $8 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (6) MUBTAAHIJ, (10) FIRING LINE, & (15) FROSTED, reverse each for $2
************************************************** ***
TRIFECTAS:
Ticket 1: BOX: 6-8-10-15-18 = $30 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 2: 8-18 over 6-8-10-15-18 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-18-19 = $44 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 3: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over ALL = $36 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 4: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-19 = $22 for a $0.50 wager
Total Trifectas = $132
*******************************************
Superfecta: 18 over 6-8-15 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12-14-15-19-20 = $108 for a $1 wager
Churchill Downs
Saturday 05/02/2015
Stakes races are listed in post time order (ET)
Page 1 of 18
Forecast High
73 F
Low
53 F
Partly Sunny
Precip: 13%
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE VERIFY BEFORE WAGERING
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Grade 1
RACE 11 Post Time 6:34 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 Kentucky
Derby Presented By Yum! Brands | Purse: $ 2,000,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Trujillo E Cassidy J 126 $0 L 50-1
2 2 Carpe Diem Velazquez J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 8-1
3 3 Materiality Castellano J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 12-1
4 4 Tencendur Franco M Weaver G 126 $0 L 30-1
5 5 Danzig Moon Leparoux J Casse M 126 $0 L 30-1
6 6 Mubtaahij (IRE) Soumillon C de Kock M 126 $0 20-1
7 7 El Kabeir Borel C Terranova, II J 126 $0 L 30-1
8 8 Dortmund Garcia M Baffert B 126 $0 L 3-1
9 9 Bolo Bejarano R Gaines C 126 $0 L 30-1
10 10 Firing Line Stevens G Callaghan S 126 $0 L 12-1
11 11 Stanford Geroux F Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
12 12 International Star Mena M Maker M 126 $0 L 20-1
13 13 Itsaknockout Saez L Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
14 14 Keen Ice Desormeaux K Romans D 126 $0 L 50-1
15 15 Frosted Rosario J McLaughlin K 126 $0 L 15-1
16 16 War Story Talamo J Amoss T 126 $0 Blk-Off L 50-1
17 17 Mr. Z Vazquez R Lukas D 126 $0 L 50-1
18 18 American Pharoah Espinoza V Baffert B 126 $0 L 5-2
19 19 Upstart Ortiz J Violette, Jr. R 126 $0 L 15-1
20 20 Far Right Smith M Moquett R 126 $0 L 30-1
Pace Scenario
The post position draw shed a bit of light on how the Kentucky Derby figures to be run, with the speedy Ocho Ocho Ocho drawing
the inside post. He is expected to be asked for speed right out of the gate from there. Trainer Todd Pletcher cannot be very happy
that his more fancied duo of Carpe Diem and Materiality drew posts 2 and 3. Both have tactical speed and are drawn inside, which
means they will be sent along early as well, at risk of losing precious ground in the stampede past the finish line the first time.
Being hard used early is likely to take its toll on both late. Dortmund, who drew well, and Bolo are expected to be in the early
mix, as is Louisiana Derby pacesetter Stanford. Firing Line drew a perfect post position and has more than enough speed to get
involved early and sit a good stalk and pounce trip. Mr. Z and American Pharoah drew next to each other, which could lead to the
former chaufferring the latter through the opening stages. The pace stalkers figure to be Upstart, Tencendur, and Mubtaahij, with
El Kabeir likely trailing that group. The first wave of closers shapes up as Danzig Moon, Itsaknockout, and Frosted, who drew well
in 15, as he prefers rating outside of horses. The deep closers will be International Star, Keen Ice, War Story, and Far Right. It is
not a disadvantage that American Pharoah drew post 18. He customarily breaks sharply from the gate. Jockey Victor Espinoza
does not have to concern himself with the 2 horses breaking outside of him. Only Mr. Z, who breaks one stall inside of American
Pharoah, has early speed. The 6 Horses breaking from posts 11-16 do not have the speed of American Pharoah. It is possible
Espinoza lets Pharoah roll out of there, takes a glance to his left to see which jockeys are taking hold of their mounts, and lets
American Pharoah assume command or rate in close proximity to the front entering the clubhouse turn, similar to how he rode him
in the Arkansas Derby and how Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby . I expect Espinoza to be aggressive, not passive, and
ride American Pharoah like he is the best horse in the race.
M/L Jockey Trainer
1st Selection #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH 5-2 ESPINOZA V BAFFERT B
We have been down this road before. Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won three Kentucky Derbies in his illustrious career, has also
saddled the favorite for Americaís grandest race three times before. He brings a duo into this yearís running of the Kentucky
Derby that is as potent as the Indian Charlie-Real Quiet combo in 1998 or the tag team of Point Given and Congaree in 2001.
American Pharoah began his career in a maiden race at Del Mar over the Polytrack in August. This was the same surface his
trainer and owner had maligned in years past for its inconsistency, initially leading to Ahmed Zayat moving the majority of his
stable to the east coast. His west coast presence has gradually increased in recent years. Among his stableís stars were 2012
Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister and 2012 Haskell winner Paynter.
Bet down to 7/5 in his debut, American Pharoah chased the pace and tired late to split the field in a group of nine. Based on his
impressive showings in the morning, and the quality of the maiden race in which he debuted, Baffert was willing to try this colt in
the Del Mar Futurity on closing day of the boutique meet. Dispatched at 3-1, he grabbed control shortly after the start and never
looked back. It was a polished and complete effort from a lightly raced colt and quickly vaulted him up the list of best 2 year-olds
in the country. A routine win in the Frontrunner 24 days later at Santa Anita only cemented that status. It also set him up as a
likely heavy favorite in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile over the same oval in early November.
An injury suffered in preparation for the Juvenile sidelined this colt, and his status for the Triple Crown was unknown when the
calendar turned to 2015. While preparing for the Rebel, American Pharoah drew continued rave reviews regarding his training,
as clockers and observers regularly stood mouths agape with incredulity at the site of the bay colt. He ran to his training in
the aforementioned Rebel, dominating from start to finish, en route to a six length score. American Pharoah overcame several
obstacles that afternoon. It was reported after the race, that he had lost a shoe soon after the start. He was also racing on a
sloppy track for the first time and outside the confines of southern California at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs Arkansas.
Even after the Rebel rout, many doubted American Pharoahís ability to rate off the pace and to handle more legitimate competition.
A return engagement in the Natural State would include a meeting with Southwest winner Far Right and a good bit more speed was
entered in the Arkansas Derby. This established the scenario many skeptics yearned for, as American Pharoah was positioned
just off the pace by regular rider, and two-time Kentucky Derby winner, Victor Espinoza. With a decisive move on the far turn, he
wrested command from the vanquished Bridgetís Big Luvy, and entered the Oaklawn Park stretch in complete control. The final
margin of victory was 8 lengths, but that is rendered moot given the consummate ease with which he handled his opposition.
With a fourth consecutive win in the bag and continued improvement, American Pharoah seemingly took the path to Derby
favoritism right through Arkansas. His victory in Hot Springs evoked memories of 2012 Kentucky Derby favorite Bodemeister
winning the same race for the same connections. Baffert shrewdly sent American Pharoah directly to Kentucky after the Arkansas
Derby, affording him the opportunity to train at Churchill Downs for over 2 weeks. That training included a final workout on Sunday
(Insert any pertinent info about workout)
Baffert has come to Churchill Downs for the Derby with an eclectic mix of horses over the years. He has had the blazing fast
Sinister Minister, the steady grinding Real Quiet, the street fighter Silver Charm, the fleet-footed Bodemeister and the classy
and consistent Point Given among others. American Pharoah deserves more than to be labeled a carbon copy of a prior Baffert
participant. However, his brilliance is reminiscent of the very best the Hall of Famer has saddled for the Kentucky Derby. He isvery fast and seems to have no issues with stamina whatsoever. American Pharoah has the ability to make his competition look ordinary in company workouts in the morning and graded stakes races in the afternoon.
Roughly a month ago, just before his seasonal debut in the Rebel, a video of an American Pharoah workout at Santa Anita was
taken by HRTV. In it, he worked in company with a then-unraced maiden. He absolutely dusted that rival en route to a drill that
drew rave reviews. The world was introduced to that unraced maiden about a week later when he scored at first asking. His name
is Whiskey Ticket, and he joined the ranks of graded stake winners with a win at Hawthorne in the Illinois Derby on April 18.
There has been no doubt about his brilliance when training, but the fact that Baffert has trained American Pharoah with talented
horses, only makes his preparation more impressive.
Regardless of how hard he or she may try, a trainer cannot simulate what occurs for a racehorse on Kentucky Derby day.
They race before a tumultuous crowd, the likes of which are otherwise never seen in this country. Thereís pageantry, pomp and
circumstance and eventually a horse race. One of the only places on the Derby trail where the setting is similar to Churchill
Downs is at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day. The field saddles in the infield and throngs of racing-crazed fans pack the century
old facility, both indoors and out. Numerous observers noted that the presumptive Derby favorite handled everything in stride
and seemed more than comfortable with the new circumstances. That will aid him tremendously at Churchill Downs.
On April 25, the Daily Racing Form reported that American Pharoah has been racing and training with a special foot plate covering
part of the sole of his left front foot. Baffert stated he will not remove it for the Derby because ìheís travelling so well with itî.
American Pharoah bruised the frog which is on the sole and acts as a shock absorber when a horseís foot hits the ground. Baffert
indicated that the bruise occurred several weeks before American Pharoahís first start as a 3 year old in the Rebel Stakes. He
has worn the plate since. With authoritative wins in the slop in the Rebel and on a dry track in the Arkansas Derby, and several
impressive workouts in between, in particular his 6 furlong drill at Churchill last Sunday, American Pharoah has shown no signs
of being compromised by wearing the special foot plate. It is clearly a non-issue when he breaks from the gate on Saturday.
Given the success that he had with his first half-dozen Kentucky Derby starters, some would view the 13-year period since Bob
Baffert won the nationís grandest race a drought. He has, however, seen his trainees post multiple top notch performances. His
ability to train a Derby winner has not waned, and a year like 2015 has probably only rekindled the flames. His hand is coming up
aces, and no member of his squadron of talented sophomores is regarded more highly than American Pharoah and rightfully so.
2nd Selection # 8 DORTMUND 3-1 GARCIA M BAFFERT B
In virtually any other year, a runner with the resume of a horse like Dortmund would loom a prohibitive favorite in the Kentucky
Derby. Despite his gargantuan size and ability to match, a perfect 6 for 6 with 4 straight graded stakes victories, Dortmund seems
to live in the shadow of stable-mate American Pharoah. Nonetheless, he is a very serious win candidate and boasts credentials
that would check every proverbial box for even the most discriminating horseplayer.
Given owner Kaleem Shah's penchant for large auction purchases, Dortmund was a bargain at the price of $140,000. He
worked :10 and 1/5 at the Fasig-Tipton Maryland sale in May 2014, a time that was the fastest of all 2 year-olds in training who
drilled one furlong. A son of 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown, he is out of a dam who was Grade III placed
during her days on the racetrack. Her prior foals to race are non-descript, with three of them minor winners. However, from the
time he debuted in early November, Dortmund showed that he had incredible potential.
Dortmund's debut was a smashing win at 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita. He rated comfortably off the pace and exploded around
the turn to win by nearly five lengths. The quality of the rivals he faced that day was proven when eventual runner-up Hero Ten
All broke his maiden a month later at Los Alamitos.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sent a couple of horses to Churchill Downs for closing weekend of the fall meet last November,
and Dortmund was among them. He landed in a N1X allowance event and was bet down to 2/5 favoritism. Drawn outside going
a mile, regular rider Martin Garcia set him up stalking the pace before asking him to move on the far turn. The response was
immediate when given his cue, as Dortmund gathered in his rivals and quickly established a comfortable lead. He powered clear
to a 7+ length win and was subsequently bet down to 9-1 in the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which was
conducted that weekend.
Baffert has run many of his top 2 year-olds through the years in the Hollywood Futurity (Point Given, Lookin at Lucky), which
is now run at Los Alamitos and has been rebranded the Los Alamitos Futurity. Dortmund was pointed there and he ran into a
pair of talented juveniles in that compact field. In a stretch-long battle, Dortmund proved best by a head over Firing Line and Mr.
Z. It was a workmanlike win that showed Dortmund would not back down from a battle. He once again effectively rated off the
pace and showed dogged determination in the stretch drive.
With an eye on starting him three times before the Kentucky Derby, Baffert decided on the Bob Lewis as Dortmund's 3 year-old
debut. He would run into a familiar rival in Firing Line, and the race flow would set up a showdown that had a slightly different look
and feel. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens took Firing Line back in the opening stages and asked him to move into the far turn.
That set up Firing Line outside of the behemoth Dortmund, and the diminutive rival seized command in upper stretch. Dortmund
re-rallied and was up in time to win by a head once again. The 1-2 finishers in the Lewis wound up over 20 lengths clear of their
rivals and posted a sparkling final time of 1:42 and 1/5, which compared favorably to other two turn races on the afternoon.
Given that he had earned consecutive wins in gritty fashion, Dortmund's popularity rose incredibly through February and into
March. He was initially pointed to the Santa Anita Derby after the Lewis win, but Baffert decided to give him a try in the San
Felipe. Drawn towards the inside in a field loaded with speed, Dortmund was asked to run right out of the gate by Martin Garcia.
He procured the early lead when his rivals deferred and was comfortably clear on the backstretch. As his rivals made their bids,
Dortmund fought them off one-by-one, seemingly gathering momentum with each powerful stride. It was yet another win that
served notice he is a horse whose potential has not been reached.
The Santa Anita Derby featured a compact field and the lead looked to be Dortmund's for the taking. He was drawn on the rail,
and race caller Trevor Denman noted that he bobbled slightly after the start. It ended up that he lost a shoe during that brief
episode, but the forsaken footwear did not deter this colt one bit. His victory was a tour de force of sorts, as he pulled clear at
the quarter pole and bounded home a convincing winner. The Santa Anita Derby has yielded Kentucky Derby winners in two of
the last three years. Dortmund's credentials look to be as good, if not better than, I'll Have Another and California Chrome.
One quality that you like to see in a Derby aspirant is toughness; specifically, whether or not that horse can stand up to a battle.
Dortmund has been locked in battle on multiple occasions in the past, and has come out on the winning end each and every
time. He won a stretch-long fight over Mr. Z and Firing Line in the Los Al Futurity, then bested Firing Line once again in the Bob
Lewis by coming back when one length behind in mid-stretch.
Despite having shown the ability to win from off the pace as a juvenile, some have lingering doubts about Dortmund rating and
being as effective in the Kentucky Derby. The likelihood that he is able to get the lead early at Churchill Downs seems minimal.
However, that should not dissuade one from considering Dortmund a serious win candidate. He arrived at Churchill two weeks
before the Run for the Roses and that gave him ample time to train under the Twin Spires. If he can rekindle the magic he created
on the same surface six months earlier, the roses are well within his reach.
3rd Selection #15 FROSTED 15-1 ROSARIO J MCLAUGHLIN K
When you possess the regal bloodlines of the standard Godolphin Stable runner, expectations are usually very high. Frosted is a
son of all-world sire Tapit, and is out of the productive mare Fast Cookie, who herself was a stakes winner on grass and graded
stake winner on dirt. Thus, Frosted was expected to be among Godolphin's very best 2 year-olds from the 2012 crop.
Frosted's career began in a deep and competitive maiden event on the Travers undercard. The headliners in that race included
the rich auction purchase Ludicrous, as well as second time starter Waging War. Frosted was dispatched at 7-1 and ran a credible
race to rally for the place. He, and a number of rivals, had to avoid a fallen foe in mid-stretch and that hurt the momentum for
every runner but the eventual winner.
Following another runner-up finish at second asking, this time at Belmont, Frosted made his first start at Aqueduct on the second
day of the fall meet. He was part of a heavily favored entry and wound up going off as the odds on favorite. Showing more tactical
speed in a race run at a modest pace, Frosted took command on the turn and drew away with authority to a 5 1/4 length victory.
Clearly, having races under his belt had made Frosted a better horse, and he was now seemingly ready to live up to his potential.
The Remsen has become a much-maligned race each year since most alumni of it have made little impact on the Triple Crown
trail. That did not stop trainers from entering, as a dozen 2 year olds were entered in the late November staple. Frosted was
drawn widest of all in stall 13, but still went off the 9/5 favorite. Working against him in addition to the poor post position was
a clear track bias on the final Saturday of the fall meet. The rail was absolutely the place to be throughout that program, from
General Bellamy's wire-to-wire win in the opener to Private Zone's romp in the Cigar Mile. Frosted took the worst of it in terms
of track profile from the outset, and eventually covered 61 feet more than the winner, Leave the Light On. According to Trakus,
the digital data provider which tracks ground coverage and speed of horses at partner tracks, 61 feet is roughly 9 lengths. So,
despite covering 9 lengths more than the winner Leave the Light On, Frosted was bested by only a half-length. This performance
served notice that Frosted was a certain player on the Kentucky Derby trail.
In his 3 year old debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Favoritism wound up going to Frosted, despite the presence of Breeders'
Cup Juvenile runner-up Upstart. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. wound up yielding precious ground to Upstart in the opening half-mile.
That gave his main rival the jump, and Frosted was unable to reel him in late. It was an excellent starting point to his sophomore
season, and showed that he still had great upside moving forward.
The Fountain of Youth was billed as the rematch between Upstart and Frosted, though the former received the bulk of the wagering
support. As Frosted effortlessly assumed command at the 3/16ths mark, it looked as if he was soon to run away and hide. Then,
almost as quickly as he had gained the lead, he relinquished it in mid-stretch while tiring badly. Something undoubtedly seemed
amiss, as he shortened stride so severely that he wound up 4th. Questions did indeed abound afterwards. Was it the blinkers he had donned for the first time? Did he have distance limitations that were now finally becoming exposed? Did something occur physically that caused such an unsightly stretch drive? The answers were unclear, but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin announced that Frosted would stay on the Derby trail and point to either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial. Befuddled but undeterred, McLaughlin made every effort to understand and eliminate whatever problems played a part in
Frosted's disappointing Fountain of Youth performance: Frosted would receive a rider switch to Joel Rosario, a "tweaking" to his blinkers allowing a wider field of vision, and minor throat surgery to assure proper breathing.
Back at the site of his narrow miss in the prior fall's Remsen, Frosted was bet down to 2-1 in a competitive edition of the WoodMemorial. Rating kindly off the pace, he remained outside through the opening 6 furlongs of the Wood. New rider Joel Rosario asked him to move on the far turn, and he began gathering momentum in the vicinity of the 5/16ths mark. By the time the field
straightened away for the run to the wire, Frosted had dead aim on Tencendur, who had outlasted the other forwardly placed runners. In a final quarter-mile run in :24.32, Frosted collared Tencendur and powered clear to a decisive two-length score. It was clearly his best effort to date, and erased the bad memories of the Fountain of Youth flop. McLaughlin stamped himself one of the best trainers in the country years ago. His exploits in the Kentucky Derby have been limited, though his first starter ever, Closing Argument in 2005, finished a strong second to Giacomo. None of his prior entrants
came in off the type of performance delivered by Frosted, and that makes him his trainer's best chance yet. McLaughlin himself is coming into the race in fine fettle, as his barn has had a month of April to remember. From April 1-24, his stable won with over 40% of its starters between Aqueduct, Keeneland and Pimlico. This reversed a troubling trend from earlier during the winter.
In fact, from January 24-March 14, McLaughlin was just 1-33 at Gulfstream Park. Frosted's two defeats to begin his 3 year-oldcampaign came during this dreadful stretch. For his and McLaughlin's sake, those days look to be in the rearview mirror. With a future Hall of Famer, Joel Rosario, on his back who has won two of the last six Triple Crown races, Frosted is a major
contender. He has no issues being outside, so a wide trip will not hurt his chances. He will also benefit if the pace is particularly
fast, and is in position to take another step forward off of his recent victory. That makes him dangerous in this ultra competitive
edition of the Run for the Roses.
4th Selection # 6 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) 20-1 SOUMILLON C DE KOCK M
The Kentucky Derby has brought us some of the most unique storylines of any sporting event over the years. This Kentucky
Derby brings together an Irish-bred horse, prepared in Dubai, trained by a South African and ridden by a Belgian. A victory by
Mubtaahij would likely eclipse any that has preceded him. The 2015 "mystery" horse brings forth serious credentials that extend
beyond his steadily improving performances on the racetrack.
Mubtaahij was bred by the Dunmore Stud in Ireland. He is by Dubawi, a multiple Grade I winner who took the Irish 2000 Guineas
during his brief but accomplished career. Ironically, Dubawi was trained by Saeed bin Suroor, the principal trainer for Sheikh
Mohammed al Maktoum's Godolphin Stable. It is bin Suroor who has conditioned the majority of foreign imports to try the Kentucky
Derby, including China Visit, Curule, Worldly Manner, Desert Party and Regal Ransom. As a stallion, Dubawi has produced a
staggering 16 Group I winners, including Al Kazeem, Makfi and Poet's Voice. Mubtaahij is not the only Grade I winner produced
by his dam, the Irish-bred Pennegale. Among her earlier foals was 2010 Prix de l'Opera winner Lily of the Valley. That 2000
meter fall staple is annually among the strongest races run in Europe. There is no doubt that stamina influences flow deeply
in Mubtaahij's pedigree.
During the summer and fall months, trainer Mike de Kock keeps a string at Newmarket in England. The majority of his 2 year-olds
debut there, and that was the case for Mubtaahij. He was dismissed in his first two starts in the wagering and did little running to
prove he was a horse of any quality. In search of improvement from a colt he held in high regard, de Kock freshened Mubtaahij
for the rich Dubai International Racing Carnival, which begins each January and ends with the Dubai World Cup.
In his first start on the new dirt surface at Meydan in Dubai, Mubtaahij registered an impressive win at one mile. He broke slowly
in a bulky field and recovered nicely to grind out a win by nearly a length. This put him on the fast track to the UAE Triple Crown,
a three-race series that culminates with the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup night. After winning the 2000 Guineas Trial, a race
in which he showed increased early speed, de Kock pointed him to the 2000 Guineas. He came up a head short that evening,
with the Godolphin-owned Maftool holding him off by a narrow margin.
Exiting his first defeat since relocating to Dubai, Mubtaahij was expected to rebound in the Al Bastakiya. Among his new rivals
was the South American-based Sir Fever, a Uruguayan four year-old who had won 10 races in a row before relocating to Dubai.
Positioned just outside of the pacesetters early, Mubtaahij stalked the pace intently under jockey Dane O'Neill. He was asked
to move in the vicinity of the 3 furlong mark, and he advanced readily towards the frontrunners. As he confronted Sir Fever, the
battle looked to be joined for an exciting stretch drive. That excitement fizzled immediately, as Mubtaahij dismissed his rival with
tremendous disdain. He was soon in front and powered home a comfortable winner.
The whispers regarding a potential Kentucky Derby try for Mubtaahij became actual chatter after his Al Bastakiya triumph. With
a win in the UAE Derby, that chatter would turn to roars. The challengers in that affair would be robust, as Maftool and Sir Fever
would line up along with the Japanese raider Golden Barows. Mubtaahij drew the rail in the 1900 meter event, an outpost that de
Kock did not prefer given his colt's penchant for racing outside. For the first time, he would be ridden by Christophe Soumillon,
an international superstar who has had success in the saddle around the globe. Soumillon kept his mount in a perfect spot just
behind the leaders through the opening half-mile. He waited patiently until the 400 meter mark and angled out in upper stretch
before kicking strongly clear late. As the field neared the wire, Mubtaahij had put four, then six, then eight lengths on his rivals
before being taken in hand late. The smashing victory enabled Soumillon to have a gander at the crowd and share his jubilation
for the powerful performance. De Kock was asked afterwards if the next stop would be in Kentucky, and he confirmed that while
adding that he would learn the words to "My Old Kentucky Home."
Mubtaahij was shipped to the US in mid-April and stopped in Chicago for a brief quarantine. De Kock opted to keep him stabled
at Arlington Park after his arrival in the Windy City, in part because he would be able to train on the all-weather Polytrack surface.
His final workout came seven days before the Kentucky Derby, as he sizzled a final quarter of a half-mile workout in :23. As
noted in the Bloodhorse, "de Kock employs Fine Equnity, a GPS-based training management tracking system to record morning
work times, heart rates and more. The system recorded four furlongs in :49.70, with a final three furlongs in :35.30."
While every Derby entrant that has shipped to Kentucky from Dubai has failed, the circumstances are different for Mubtaahij.
He is conditioned by a trainer who has had tremendous international success over the years. In fact, de Kock has started six
horses in the United States in the last 15 years. Each of those starters has finished in the money, with one victory from the halfdozen.
Among his 2nd place finishers was Eagle Mountain in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Turf, Archipenko in the 2008 Arlington
Million and The Apache in the 2013 Arlington Million. He has won races such as the Dubai Duty Free, the QEII Cup in Singapore
and the Hong Kong Champions Mile. After originally scheduling his arrival in the US for April 24, de Kock delayed it so that he
could saddle runners at Turffontein in his native South Africa. It was a prudent move, as he picked up two more Group I wins
to add to his ever-expanding collection.
When interviewed before the Kentucky Derby, de Kock mentioned that the feed that Mubtaahij regularly eats is not FDA approved.
That would require a change for a generally laid-back horse that trains without shoes and lives in an open pen. When the race
itself begins, he will face dynamics the likes of which he has never seen before. He has not been in a field larger than 11, and
has not faced an early pace as taxing as the one that usually exists in the Kentucky Derby. To prepare him for those hurdles,
Soumillon positioned him behind rivals in the UAE Derby, which forced him to take more kick-back than he had before. He
handled it with alacrity and showed the maturation and progression you want to see from a sophomore at this time of year.
If a horse is to win the Kentucky Derby off of a UAE Derby start, it would stand to reason that runner would come from a successful
international barn. Obstacles such as the compressed schedule, coupled with the travel and changed logistics including food and
stabling are often overwhelming. However, it is the brilliant conditioning of a horseman like de Kock, and the raw talent Mubtaahij
has shown that inspire confidence. He will face 7 rivals who come into the Derby off victories at 1 1/8 miles; the furthest each
have ever run. Mubtaahij has the significant advantage of victories in his last 2 starts travelling a 1/16th of mile longer. Despite
landing in one of the deepest and most competitive Derby fields in recent memory, Mubtaahij looms a dangerous rival who stands
a fair chance to have a strong impact on the outcome.
5th Selection #10 FIRING LINE 12-1 STEVENS G CALLAGHAN S
One of the challenges for Southern California-based horsemen this winter and spring was avoiding the titans from the barn of
Bob Baffert. Luckily, American Pharoah was pointed to races outside of the Golden State, but Simon Callaghan could not avoid
a showdown with Dortmund for Firing Line. Short of winning, Firing Line ran about as well as he could have in the Bob Lewis
back in early February.
Firing Line is a son of 2010 Arkansas Derby winner Line of David. He was purchased for $240,000 at the Keeneland 2 yearold
in training sale in April 2014, a staggering 120 times his sire's modest $2,000 stud fee. Thus, it is safe to say that this colt
made a very strong impression when going through the ring. His dam was Grade I placed during a career where she banked
just over $200,000. She has produced 2 winners from as many to race, though the first one lacked the quality of Firing Line. The
second dam of Firing Line was a two-time winner who produced graded stake winning router Mint Lane. That ability to go two
turns, coupled with his dam being Grade I placed at 9 furlongs leads you to believe that there's stamina in this pedigree.
Firing Line was bet down to 11-10 on debut at Santa Anita just before the Breeders' Cup, and wound up a game second after
getting off to a poor start. Winning six furlong races from off the pace in Arcadia is no easy task, and this colt came very close to
doing so. He came back just over a month later to win a MSW event by a comfortable margin at Del Mar, handling the Polytrack
in Oceanside with great ease. That win was impressive enough for Callaghan to try him against Grade I foes in the Los Alamitos
Futurity in mid-December. He was slated to run into the aforementioned Dortmund as well as the Grade I placed Mr. Z. Firing
Line was given plenty of support, and he battled through strong fractions from start to finish. Though he wound up beaten by a
head, he ran every bit as well as Dortmund, with this diminutive colt nearly beating him to the wire.
Firing Line's rematch with Dortmund came in the Bob Lewis in early February at Santa Anita. That marked Firing Line's return
to Santa Anita, and he put forth his best effort yet. His new rider was Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, who decided to take him a
bit more off the pace than he had been across town in the Los Alamitos Futurity. As the field rounded the far turn, Firing Line
assumed command and looked to be well on his way to handing the heavily favored Dortmund his first defeat. In the final furlong,
the resurgent Dortmund began to rally on the inside and was up in time to beat Firing Line by a head. Firing Line was maligned
afterwards for having stamina issues, but the fractions and final time of the race indicate that he was entitled to tire.
In an effort to avoid Dortmund, Firing Line was sent to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby in late March. He out-classed his rivals
in that field and pulled clear late to win by over 14 lengths. His final time of 1:47 and 1/5 was eye-catching, but the main track was
'souped up', producing faster than normal times all afternoon. Regardless of the time, it was an impressive effort given the way
he took heat from the inside throughout and pulled clear late. The rivals he was facing were far from legitimate graded stakes
caliber types, but he handled them with consummate ease.
Callaghan is a young trainer who has had success since coming to America. He won two Grade I races in 2014 with Fashion
Plate, and has scored multiple Grade I wins on turf. Firing Line will be his first Kentucky Derby starter, and he is coming in
relatively fresh off of the Sunland score. Having Gary Stevens aboard is a major credit, as he has nearly regained the standing
he had at his career zenith. The versatility he has shown with Stevens aboard is a major positive. The bulky field and taxing pace
will make his job tougher, but there are reasons to feel Firing Line can hang on for a share.
6th Selection # 3 MATERIALITY 12-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Some say rules are made to be broken. At least that's what backers of the undefeated Materiality will say about his Kentucky
Derby hopes, given that he is looking to break a 113 year-old curse. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby
without racing as a 2 year-old.
Materiality was purchased for $400,000 at the Fasig-Tipton MIdlantic Sale in May 2014. He worked :10 and 2/5 for an eighthmile
at the Under Tack Show of that sale, zipping around the Timonium bullring with good speed. His pedigree is outstanding, as
there are route influences on both sides, namely his Belmont Stakes winning sire Afleet Alex. His dam, Wildwood Flower, was
a three-time winner as a juvenile and scored in the Piedmont at Golden Gate in her final start at 2. She came back as a three
year-old and snagged graded stake placing's in the Santa Ysabel and Beaumont. Materiality is her fifth foal to race, and each of
the prior four are winners. The best of them is 2014 Gazelle winner My Miss Sophia, who is slated to seek a Grade I win in the
La Troienne on Kentucky Oaks day. Materiality's second dam produced 7 winners including multiple graded stake winner Eye
of the Tiger. Among her progeny was a stakes-placed filly by Distant View named Expanse. She produced 2010 Travers winner
Afleet Express, who was also by Afleet Alex. That makes Afleet Express and Materiality sons of the same sire but different dams
who happened to share the same dam. Clearly, Materiality's pedigree is among the best in this field.
It took until early January for Materiality to make his debut, which came in a 6 furlong event on the main track at Gulfstream
Park. He dusted a field of 7 rivals, which included subsequent maiden breaker Easy to Say, who scored handily in late February.
Eyeing a variety of options before a final Derby prep, trainer Todd Pletcher chose an overnight stake race at Gulfstream called
the Islamorada in early March. He would meet stablemate Stanford, who had shown stakes caliber ability up to that point in his
brief career. Materiality rated comfortably outside of his rival and burst clear late to win by almost six lengths, extending his stride
with ease and fluidity. As if he needed another Derby aspirant, Pletcher now had this flashy and lightly raced colt to point to the
Florida Derby to replace the injured Khozan.
The Florida Derby pitted Materiality against Upstart and stablemate Itsaknockout. He was bet down to 9/5 and enjoyed a trip
that was quite similar to that of the Islamorada 22 days before. This time, the rival chasing him into the lane was a graded stake
winner and even money favorite. Materiality rebuked Upstart and held gamely to win by just over a length. That effort made him
a major Kentucky Derby player even with the negatives that come with his limited schedule and late start to his career.
Even with a win in 2010 with Super Saver, the story of Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby reads more like a horror novel
than a "feel good" story. He has one win from forty starters, and only six of those entrants finished in the money. For a trainer
who regularly saddles multiple runners in each edition of the Derby, these numbers are horrendous. He will once again saddle
multiple horses in 2015, with as many as four Pletcher trainees slated to start.
Is Pletcher's lack of success in the Kentucky Derby enough to ignore Materiality as a real contender? Likely no, given that the
equine athlete in this case has rightfully earned strong credentials. The larger concern is whether a horse can overcome the
obstacles of a compressed schedule while facing a field larger than 9 for the first time at a racetrack outside of Hallandale,
Florida. When you begin to factor in all that is seemingly going against Materiality, he becomes tough to embrace as a potential
winner. His talent is undeniable, and it is quite possible that he will end up being one of the best Kentucky Derby participants
down the line. However, the likelihood he can win this race on the first Saturday in May is minimal, as the task can best be
described as "too much, too soon."
7th Selection #19 UPSTART 15-1 ORTIZ J VIOLETTE, JR. R
Ten years elapsed between trainer Rick Violette saddling his first Kentucky Derby starter (Read the Footnotes (2004) and Samraat
(2014). Both made serious moves towards the lead in the final half-mile, only to come up empty late. A year after his last entrant
started, he is back with Upstart, whose credentials are as good, if not better, than the two aforementioned colts.
Upstart is by Flatter, a Claiborne Farm stallion who has produced Grade I winner Flat Out and graded stake winners Classic
Point, Apart and Kobe's Back. Owner Ralph Evans, a regular client of Violette, purchased Upstart for $130,000 at the FasigTipton
Saratoga NY bred preferred yearling sale in 2013. Upstart is the second foal to race out of a dam who never started. She
has produced one other winner, a gelding named Party On, who broke his maiden for $25,000 at Aqueduct in March. Upstart's
2nd dam was stakes-placed during a career where she banked $79,000. She dropped 8 winners, the best of which was Grade II
winner Josh's Madelyn. While Josh's Madelyn's best races came sprinting, she was also stakes placed around two turns. Thus,
there is a bit of a stamina influence deep in Upstart's dam-side pedigree.
Like Samraat, Upstart is a New York bred who began his career with a splash. Upstart won a New York bred maiden race with
authority, exploding through a narrow spot to score by better than five lengths. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in that race,
Tizquick and Breakin the Fever, have since competed favorably against NY bred stakes rivals.
Following that flashy debut win, Violette did something he infrequently does with Upstart. He brought him back just 9 days later for
the Funny Cide, run on the inaugural NY bred Saratoga Showcase. Sent off as the 3/2 second choice, Upstart reeled in the speedy
Bustin It in the closing stages. That rival was fresh off a win in the Rockville Centre where he handily defeated impressive maiden
winner International Star. With two wins in less than a fortnight, Upstart was clearly a horse ready to try open company. His final
time of 1:16.15 was better than four seconds faster than 2 year-old fillies went in the Seeking the Ante later that day (1:20.27).
The first open company opportunity for Upstart came in the Champagne at Belmont Park. Rain the night before and throughout
the morning rendered "big sandy" a sloppy mess. Facing flashy debut winner Daredevil, Upstart was made the 3rd choice at
odds of 7/2. Jockey Jose Ortiz assumed the pace would be robust in the Champagne, but it was nothing more than ordinary.
Even after sunshine began to dry the surface out, the half-mile split of the Champagne was 1/5th of a second slower than that
of the Frizette earlier on that afternoon. Upstart still finished with interest to check in second behind Daredevil, showing quite
clearly that he belonged against open company rivals.
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile was the logical next spot for Upstart, and he was bet down to 6-1 in a bulky field of eleven. He drew
a difficult outside post and wound up covering the second most ground of any participant. After moving into contention on the
far turn, he was unable to hold off Texas Red and wound up missing second in a photo finish with Carpe Diem. The consistency
Upstart showed throughout his 2 year-old campaign was unquestionable after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and made him a horse
worth following on the path to Kentucky.
Unlike Samraat, who prepared for the Kentucky Derby in New York, Upstart was sent to Florida to train at Palm Meadows and
race at Gulfstream Park. His three year-old debut came in the Holy Bull, and he posted arguably his best effort to date. Stalking
outside from the start, Upstart assumed command off the far turn and drew away with authority to score by over five lengths. It
was a decisive win and one that made him a serious long-term prospect for the Derby. After going off the second choice in the
Holy Bull, Upstart was bet down to 9-10 in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Ortiz once again kept him close to the pace, and he
found his way into an ideal spot at the quarter pole. Through an unsightly stretch drive, he prevailed over Itsaknockout, only to be
disqualified for interference at the furlong grounds. It was a decision that drew negative reviews from most observers, and other
questions arose. The way the Fountain of Youth ended fostered concerns that Upstart would have issues with 9 furlongs or more.
The Florida Derby was supposed to provide Upstart one final opportunity to answer questions about his Derby candidacy. He
wound up second to the real "upstart", the Todd Pletcher-trained Materiality. It was a performance that would best be labeled
"good" but lacked the flash or substance of final efforts posted by horses like American Pharoah, Dortmund or Frosted.
Can a New York bred who has shown chinks in his armor of late win the Kentucky Derby for a trainer who has not won a Grade
I race in eight years? It seems like a proposition that would demand a hearty price. The consistency and class he has shown is
tremendous, but the substance is lacking enough to relegate Upstart to the minor slots of exotic wagers.
8th Selection # 4 TENCENDUR 30-1 FRANCO M WEAVER G
For a Louisville boy who grew up with dreams of winning the Kentucky Derby, this year will be particularly special for George
Weaver. He will saddle his first Kentucky Derby starter with recent Wood Memorial runner-up Tencendur, and that will prompt
many to pay more attention to a trainer who most regard as underrated.
Tencendur is one of a precious few homebreds in this year's Kentucky Derby field, with the most highly regarded being the
betting favorite American Pharoah. Philip Birsh bred his mare Still Secret to Warrior's Reward, a Grade I winner who is off to a
strong start at stud. He stands for $25,000 at Spendthrift Farm because of his regal pedigree. Still Secret was a debut winner
Page 9 of 18
who dropped her next two starts, but she has now foaled four winners from as many to race. The best of them was NY bred dirt
sprinter Mother Russia, who banked over $500,000 for Linda Rice. Still Secret's dam was unraced, but produced 5 winners from
6 foals to race. As far as NY breds go, Tencendur has a solid pedigree.
Rarely do you assume that a MSW event in mid-December at Aqueduct could include a pair of first time starters that would
eventually end up on the Derby trail. That ended up being the case with the 2nd race on December 12, as the winner, Far From
Over, won by a nose with Tencendur third at 5-1. With a major rider change in his second start, this colt was able to break his
maiden and he did so over two rivals who were soon to break their maidens afterwards as well. The muddy racetrack at Aqueduct
in January provided a new challenge for the lightly raced Tencendur, and he handled it well with a late charge that led to a
winner's circle visit. With entry level allowance races in New York in short supply during a harsh winter, Weaver was forced to try
Tencendur in graded stakes races. The first of those was the Withers in early February. On a surface that favored runners on the
inside, Tencendur was wide most of the way before spinning his wheels in the lane. It was hardly an embarrassing performance,
but showed that he was still short of the best 3 year-olds racing in New York during the winter.
Weaver could have easily taken a step back after the Withers and re-routed Tencendur to softer spots. He opted to keep him on
the Derby trail and that meant a try in the Gotham. Once again racing over a surface that featured a strong rail, he was wide the
entire way before ending up 5th beaten almost four lengths. Again, he showed signs of life before coming up wanting late. With
the rail being the ideal spot on that strip, covering the 2nd widest trip in a field of ten was far from ideal for Tencendur.
The Wood Memorial featured a smaller field than did the Gotham, but the major players were also more talented horses.
Tencendur had another new rider aboard, as Jose Ortiz took over for Cornelio Velasquez. Stuck with the outside post, another
wide trip seemed in the offing. Ortiz did an excellent job riding him aggressively early, and he wound up showing more early
speed than he had in any prior start. This put him in an ideal position around the far turn, assuming command in the vicinity of the
quarter-pole. As the field straightened away for the stretch drive, eventual winner Frosted had this NY bred to catch and gathered
him in with every stride. Even though beaten, it was a vastly improved performance from Tencendur, and one that proved he
is worthy of a try in the Kentucky Derby.
Despite the strong effort in the Wood, as a non-winner of two lifetime eligible 3 year-old, Tencendur lacks real win credentials.
However, his ability to rate early and make one run makes him a late threat for a minor placing. It will take additional improvement,
but this colt still has upside and enters off a lifetime best performance. Few can boast those positive qualities, even in this bulky
and eclectic field.
9th Selection #14 KEEN ICE 50-1 DESORMEAUX K ROMANS D
Between the 2010 and 2012 Kentucky Derbies, trainer Dale Romans earned in-the-money finishes in 5 out of 7 Triple Crown
races. That run of success began when Paddy O'Prado checked in second in the 2010 Kentucky Derby and continued with First
Dude in that year's Preakness and Belmont. Shackleford came back to win the 2011 Preakness to give Romans his first Triple
Crown win, and Dullahan wound up third in the Kentucky Derby 50 weeks later. It was a very strong stretch for a trainer who has
made a career out of winning major races with overlooked horses. That is his objective once again with Keen Ice.
Purchased for $120,000 at the Keeneland September Sale in 2013, Keen Ice is a son of Preakness, Breeders' Cup Classic and
Dubai World Cup winner Curlin. The best progeny of Curlin include 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice and 2015 Santa Anita
Oaks winner Stellar Wind. His runners have proven competent on turf and dirt and have few, if any, issues with endurance. Keen
Ice is out of an unraced dam who is a half to Salvator Mile winner Coal Play. In Coal Play's best career effort, he narrowly missed
to 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Big Brown in the Haskell Invitational. There is little else in Keen Ice's
immediate pedigree of note, but he has seemingly already outrun it.
Undeserving of making the trip to Saratoga with Romans' main string, Keen Ice debuted last August at Ellis Park. He was a
non-factor in that affair, but returned just 13 days later to break his maiden at Churchill Downs at one mile. Romans generally
needs little excuse to dip his toes in the deep waters of graded stakes races, so Keen Ice wound up in the Breeders' Futurity
and Remsen to end his 2 year-old campaign. Already showing signs of being a one-run closer with no early speed, he lagged
behind early in each of those races before making late moves. In the Remsen, he was up for 3rd, a long way behind 1-2 finishers
Leave the Light On and Frosted. Apprentice Israel Rodriguez rode him rather astutely, saving every inch of ground on a surface
that strongly favored inside paths.
Keen Ice wintered at Gulfstream and got a chance at showing Kentucky Derby prospects in the Holy Bull in January. He was in
his customary early spot, but never fired en route to splitting the field of nine. Believing that the longer stretch would help him
uncoil his late run, Romans sent him to Fair Grounds for the Risen Star four weeks later. While he did get significantly more pace
to run at in that event, he could not cash in on a perfect trip and ride by James Graham. A 3rd place finish was all he achieved.
With his Kentucky Derby qualifying points increasing, he needed an on the board finish in a final prep to have a chance at a spot
in the starting gate. The Louisiana Derby was packed with speed on paper, and that led many to believe Keen Ice was a serious
win candidate. He dropped back early under Graham, but the pace never materialized. It was a struggle for him to land in the
superfecta after launching a wide move on the far turn.
It would take a defection or two from the top 20 horses with Derby aspirations to get Keen Ice into the field. He got that defection
when Madefromlucky was declared nine days before the race. Romans and owner Jerry Crawford (Donegal Racing) jumped at
the opportunity. A final workout was scheduled for Sunday morning, and it drew rave reviews from observers. His connections
felt confident afterwards, as Romans told the Bloodhorse, "It was perfect. He looked happy out there." Crawford, ever the realist,
said of his charge's chances: "He hasn't run fast enough to win the Derby, but he loves this track." He added: "The final eighth
of a mile can be a graveyard for some horses, and he'll be closing like a freight train."
There is no doubt that Keen Ice will be on the move late. Further, a hot pace would greatly help his chances. Given Romans' history
in these races and at this particular racetrack, it is sage to keep an eye on Keen Ice as a trifecta/superfecta filler at huge odds.
10th Selection #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR 20-1 MENA M MAKER M
Nearly 45 weeks after romping in a turf sprint to clear the maiden ranks in his debut, an under-sized New York-bred son of
Fusaichi Pegasus will enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate as the leading points earner in the field of 20. It is a story that fits
thoroughbred racing, which has shown clearly through the years to never "judge a book by its cover."
International Star is the rare runner for Ken and Sarah Ramsey that is not by their prize stallion Kitten's Joy. In fact, he was
actually not bred by Ramsey either, as he was purchased at the Midlantic fall sale at Timonium in September 2013. Despite a
largely modest pedigree, he was purchased for $85,000, over 11 times the stud fee of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi
Pegasus. The dam side of his pedigree includes the Maryland-bred Fools in Love, who racked up $240,000 in earnings during
her career. She won the Orleans at Delta Downs in addition to placing in the Maryland Million Lassie, Maryland Million Distaff
and the Sorority. International Star's dam, Parlez, earned $93,000 during a career where she won three times. She has produced
four winners in total, none of whom earned any black type beyond the aforementioned Fools in Love.
International Star was debuted on dirt, likely because trainer Mike Maker wanted him to be able to go six furlongs. Dirt races in
mid-June are generally run at five furlongs or less, but International Star gave the impression of being a more distance-interested
colt right from the start. His debut was a thing of beauty, as he sat just off the pace and kicked clear authoritatively in the lane.
Just over three weeks after that win, he was the favorite in the Rockville Centre for 2 year-olds on the final card of the Belmont
spring-summer meet. While no match for eventual winner Bustin It, he showed he could handle conventional dirt and wound up
over 13 lengths clear of the 3rd place finisher.
Three of the final four races International Star contested as a juvenile were on both turf and synthetic, including a win in Canada
and a graded stake placing in the US. His 9th place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf was somewhat disappointing, even
if he was dismissed at 36-1. With the clock ticking on 2014, Maker gave him one more start, and it came on the main track at
Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He wound up a non-descript fourth at 15-1, never threatening eventual winner
El Kabeir.
Ramsey and Maker undoubtedly entered 2015 thinking they had a competent turf horse that could benefit from getting a try or
two on synthetic surfaces throughout North America. When this colt won the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds in his 3 year old debut,
plans suddenly changed, as he showed something that afternoon he had not previously in two dirt outings. Jockey Miguel Mena
got him to a comfortable spot on the inside and he saved ground throughout, eventually pulling clear late to register a 9-1 upset.
Facing largely the same horses five weeks later in the Risen Star, he was once again questioned by the wagering public and
wound up winning again, this time at 7/2. The Lecomte win had not been a fluke, and he once again rode the rail to a clear victory.
The Louisiana Derby was set to feature a deeper and more competitive field than the Risen Star or Lecomte. Invaders such as
Stanford for Todd Pletcher and Mr. Z for D. Wayne Lukas added to the group, but International Star once again shined brightest
in the end. Riding the rail for a 3rd straight time, he snuck through an opening in upper stretch and wore down the aforementioned
Stanford to score by a neck. The win increased his total Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points to 161, the best of any sophomore
heading to the Run for the Roses.
It has been owner Ken Ramsey's lifelong dream to win the Kentucky Derby. International Star is the atypical Ramsey entrant in
the race, as he has legitimate dirt form and pedigree. That makes him decidedly different from horses like Dean's Kitten and We
Miss Artie, who were bred for turf and synthetic surfaces. He is the Ramsey's second straight Louisiana Derby winner to contest
the Kentucky Derby, but his consistency and seasoning is more significant than that of Vicar's In Trouble.
The greatest concerns when it comes to International Star are how he will negotiate a bulky field, and whether he can handle
this steep class jump. While running down Stanford was clearly an accomplishment, that colt is no better than third string among
Todd Pletcher's Derby entrants. This Derby field being so strong makes you skeptical of International Star's prospects, as the
Louisiana-based 3 year-olds looked a cut below this winter.
11th Selection # 9 BOLO 30-1 BEJARANO R GAINES C
There is no medication for Derby fever. When Bolo won the Eddie Logan with a head-turning stretch bid, he was considered a
potential Kentucky Derby starter, with it all depending on his trying conventional dirt. Despite being defeated twice in subsequent
dirt starts, he has made his way to Kentucky and will attempt to take a monstrous step forward in his toughest objective yet.
Bolo is by Temple City, a Grade III winner who was Grade I placed in the 2010 Hollywood Turf Cup. He went to stud at his
owner's Spendthrift Farm, in part because he is one of the only remaining sons of Dynaformer with graded stakes ability. He
has made a splash with his freshman crop, as Startup Nation won the Grade II With Anticipation in 2014, and Papacoolpapacool
and Saratoga Heater added stakes wins of their own. The dam of Bolo, Aspen Mountain, was winless from two tries, and has
produced three winners from four to race. She is kin to 5 winners, but the most popular of her siblings was the unraced Mining
My Own. She ended up producing 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Thus, without their being any stars in Bolo's
pedigree, it has some interesting elements.
Bolo began his career on the turf at Del Mar at their new fall meet last November. He broke sideways at the start, and wound up
entering the first turn last of the field of 11. Jockey Mike Smith found himself in a very tough spot from there, but found a way to
get clear in the final half-mile. He wound up going wide around the far turn and reaching contention in the vicinity of the quarter
pole. The wide trip took its toll late, as he flattened out in the lane. With a cleaner start, Bolo took control of his 2nd start and
won going away. Among the vanquished rivals in his wake was a compact colt named Metaboss. That rival would come back to
break his maiden in his next start before winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate in February.
When Bolo won the aforementioned Eddie Logan, he earned many deserved accolades. He had gotten involved in a very strong
pace that afternoon before kicking clear in the lane. It was as authoritative a victory as you will ever see from a lightly raced 2
year-old on the turf. Trainer Carla Gaines now faced the quandary of whether to move this son of Temple City to dirt for the series
of races leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. He suffered a setback in January and reportedly did not train well over the Santa
Anita main track. Eventually, he wound up in the San Felipe in early March, even after missing some training time. Admittedly a
short horse by Gaines' training standards, Bolo ran into the behemoth Dortmund from the barn of Bob Baffert. The pace scenario
worked in Dortmund's favor, and squarely against Bolo. Thus, his effort to finish 3rd was quite impressive.
In a smaller field in the Santa Anita Derby, Bolo had Mike Smith back in the irons. Surprisingly, Smith took him back off the early
pace, and he was last of six after a quarter-mile. Not only was this a position that was foreign to the horse, he once again spotted
precious ground to the bulky and powerful Dortmund. Bolo finished with some interest to check in third, but the also-rans in that
field looked to be spinning their wheels late.
Gaines did not initially indicate that Bolo would go to the Kentucky Derby, but confirmed him for the race two weeks before the
race. He had his final workout at Santa Anita and shipped into Churchill Downs 6 days in advance of the Derby. Rafael Bejarano
has the call, and one has to wonder if he will be allowed to show the early speed that made him such an interesting horse. The
pace will undoubtedly be quicker than any he has seen before, but this colt has shown the ability to withstand strenuous early
fractions. Whether he is a horse who has been thrust into this race because of Derby fever, or one that has a real chance is the
major question. He will offer value at the windows, but is a dicey proposition as a win candidate.
12th Selection # 2 CARPE DIEM 8-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
When you purchase a racehorse for $1.6 million and name him "Carpe Diem", a Latin aphorism for "seize the day", you obviously
have very high expectations. Thus, when Carpe Diem made it to the races on closing day of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was
expected to go off a heavy favorite. Armed with a work tab full of bullets for the meet's top trainer Todd Pletcher, Carpe Diem
rewarded his backers with a wire-to-wire win as the odds on favorite.
A son of Giant's Causeway, out of the stakes winner Rebridled Dreams, Carpe Diem worked a blazing :10 and 1/5 at the OBS
March sale in 2014. He is kin to Grade I winner Breeders' Futurity winner JB's Thunder. In just his second career start, Carpe
Diem became Rebridled Dreams' 2nd foal to win that prestigious affair. Among his other siblings is Doncaster Rover, a groupplaced
turf horse in England who banked over $200,000. Between his strong pedigree and fast workout during the under tack
show, it is no wonder that the price soared to $1.6 million when the gavel fell in Ocala.
With Keeneland's return to a conventional dirt main track, the Claiborne Farm Breeders' Futurity became a logical spot for Carpe
Diem's first try against winners. He was bet down to 2-1 in the field of 12, including the dual graded stake placed Mr. Z and recent
Iroquois runner-up Bold Conquest. Jockey John Velazquez positioned Carpe Diem comfortably off the early pace before asking
him to move around the far turn. In an instant, his charge gathered in the leaders and assumed command at the top of the stretch.
He put a four-length margin on his rivals in the blink of an eye, eventually reporting home a 6 1/4 length winner.
A week before the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, probable race favorite American Pharoah was declared from the field due to injury.
That left Carpe Diem and his uncoupled stable-mate, Daredevil, to battle for favoritism. Carpe Diem took the money, with a
closing price of 9/5. The strenuous early pace in the Juvenile left him much farther off the pace than ever before, falling 7 lengths
back after a half-mile. Velazquez did what he could to keep his charge in striking range, but Carpe Diem mostly spun his wheels
around the far turn and into the lane. When the field straightened away for the stretch drive, Carpe Diem kicked in and finished
with great interest, just getting up to win a photo for the place money. He was no threat to the winner, Texas Red, and, when all
was said and done, had run a vastly inferior race to 3rd place finisher Upstart. However, it was notable that Carpe Diem handled
some adversity and validated his flashy performances at Keeneland and Saratoga.
This year, Pletcher opted to give Carpe Diem but two preps in advance of the Kentucky Derby. The first came in the Tampa
Bay Derby, a race Pletcher used with Super Saver, WinStar Farm's 2010 Kentucky Derby winner. The deep, tiring composition
of Tampa Bay Downs' main track is considered a great stamina-builder in young horses. Carpe Diem was made a heavy even
money favorite, and there were few anxious moments during his 5-length rout. The foes he beat in that race included the 1-2
finishers from the Sam F. Davis, the local prep for the centerpiece of the meet, the Tampa Bay Derby.
With his handy score in the Breeders' Futurity in mind, Pletcher plotted a course back to Keeneland for the Toyota Blue Grass,
moved up a week to the first Saturday in April. The new position on the calendar would give Carpe Diem an extra week off after
the Blue Grass, and the race was set to be run on a new surface that he took to kindly six months before. The wagering dollars
poured in on him and he wound up 2/5 at the break. Facing a field that was vastly inferior on paper, he scored a workmanlike win
by three lengths, his fourth score in five career outings. It was a win that was more utilitarian than flashy. Unfortunately, flashy is
what sells this time of year, and Carpe Diem's stock largely dropped after the Blue Grass win.
With American Pharoah and Dortmund racking up powerful victories, and both Materiality and Frosted scoring decisively,
the quality of Carpe Diem's two wins have been called into question. His races as a three year-old have been somewhat
mundane. They have come against weak foes and the victories have been earned with favorable pace scenarios and under ideal
circumstances. Carpe Diem's progress as a three-year old does not appear to have either met expectations and/or matched that
of key rivals. Off two soft preps, he lands in the toughest spot of his career. Carpe Diem does not inspire confidence in me as
one of the likely winners of this year's Kentucky Derby.
13th Selection # 5 DANZIG MOON 30-1 LEPAROUX J CASSE M
Equipped with blue chip stock on a yearly basis, trainer Mark Casse has been eyed by many as a trainer with a Kentucky Derby
win in his future. Danzig Moon will be just his third starter in the Run for the Roses, and will attempt to better the performances
of Casse's two prior entrants. Those runners (Seaside Retreat - 2005, Prospective - 2012) were 10th and 18th, respectively, so
the bar has been set relatively low.
Jack Oxley won the 2001 Kentucky Derby with Monarchos when John T. Ward, Jr. was his private trainer. He now uses Casse
exclusively, and they have had some success, winning graded stakes races with Dynamic Impact, Funny Proposition and
Delightful Mary. Oxley shelled out $160,000 for this Ontario bred, and you can imagine that a potential try in the Queen's Plate
was a long range idea. His pedigree has a great deal of Phipps Stable influence on the dam-side a tad down the line. His 3rd dam
produced Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Inside Information as well as Educated Risk. His 2nd dam was graded stake placed and
was the dam of current Canadian stallions Philanthropist and Defer. Those two were competent on multiple surfaces during their
time on the racetrack. Danzig Moon's dam was winless in her career, but has produced two winners thus far as a broodmare.
Among the progeny of Malibu Moon to have success are 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb and recent Grade I winners Devil
May Care and Life at Ten. In sum, Danzig Moon has a pedigree that can be considered respectable.
It took until his third career start for Danzig Moon to break his maiden, as he suffered defeats at Churchill Downs and Keeneland
at the beginning of his career. He was well-backed in both and showed signs of life, but was unable to cash in late. He put it all
together on the undercard of the Donn Handicap, and wound up being one of the only runners on that program to come from a
bit off the pace. With ample time after his maiden win, Casse decided to give him a try in graded stake races. He ran into the
highly touted Carpe Diem, as well as recent Sam F. Davis winner Ocean Knight in the Tampa Bay Derby back in early March.
The class jump proved too much for him to handle, as he was never involved and eventually trudged home a badly beaten fourth.
With the bulk of Casse's stable landing at Keeneland each spring, starting Danzig Moon in the Blue Grass seemed like a sensible
option. He had already run at Keeneland and would be making his third start off a layoff. Though he never put a real challenge
into eventual winner Carpe Diem, he rallied gamely to finish second at odds of 15-1. He covered the widest trip of any runner in
that field, losing precious ground around the far turn. The performance served as validation for his connections, who believed he
was of graded stake caliber when they sent him to Tampa Bay Downs one month before.
Given that he earned sufficient points to qualify for a start in the Kentucky Derby, Danzig Moon has been pointed to it since the
Blue Grass. He has trained and raced at Churchill Downs before and will find the surroundings a homecoming of sorts. While he
is a better horse than the slow, plodding juvenile that raced under the Twin Spires in November, he is still far from a legitimate
Kentucky Derby contender. A minor placing would seem his ceiling, and even that is being optimistic.
14th Selection #20 FAR RIGHT 30-1 SMITH M MOQUETT R
It has been ten years since the deep closer Giacomo picked his way through the pack to register a huge upset win with Mike
Smith in the irons. Mike Smith will bid for a second Kentucky Derby victory with this deep closing ridgling, who he has piloted
three times this year.
Far Right began his career in way that can conservatively be called humble. He was purchased for $2,500 as a weanling at
Keeneland in January 2013. His sire was a useful racehorse whose greatest career triumph was in the Salvator Mile at Monmouth
Park, a marginal sire with no real proven offspring. The dam of Far Right was an unraced daughter of 2002 Breeders' Cup
Juvenile winner Vindication, and he is her first foal to race. There were no black type winners in the second family, which leads
you to the conclusion that Far Right has no pedigree whatsoever.
His debut race came in April of 2014 at Keeneland, and he ran off in the post parade. Once corralled and loaded into the gate,
he wound up a clear 2nd at 9-1 to handy winner Conquest Tsunami. His trainer at the time was William Helmbrecht, who reentered
him quickly in a MSW event at Churchill Downs two weeks later. He posted another second-place finish, this time behind
subsequent graded stake winner Cinco Charlie. Out of that race, Far Right was purchased privately by Harry Rosenblum and
did not re-surface until mid-September at Churchill Downs. He registered an upset win that afternoon to break his maiden, and
then dropped three straight decisions to end his 2 year-old campaign. The best of those defeats came in the Delta Jackpot in
Louisiana back in November, as he rallied late after steadying hard on the far turn.
Trainer Ron Moquett is based in Arkansas during the winter, and he decided to start Far Right in the Smarty Jones, the first of
a series of four races for 3 year-olds culminating in the Arkansas Debry. Dispatched at 5/2, Far Right finished strongly up the
inside to collar the erratic favorite Mr. Z. This victory was another improved effort for the son of Notional and his closing kick was
strong. In fact, the chart caller noted it by describing his running line with the term "full of run." Weather dogged the Southwest
Stakes one month later when racing was cancelled and it was re-scheduled 6 days after the original date. Rain rendered the
main track sloppy and he wound up making a bold move to get up in time again.
After winning the Southwest a week after the original date, Moquett opted to skip the Rebel and point his charge to the Arkansas
Derby. That would mean he'd have a date with division leader American Pharoah, who had won the Rebel in impressive fashion.
The disadvantage Far Right will always face against a speedy rival like American Pharoah is a tactical one. Far Right wound up
13 lengths off the pace through the opening half-mile of the Arkansas Derby, spotting the race favorite a chasm of ground. Far
Right made his customary late charge in the end and wound up getting up for second in the final strides. He never came remotely
close to threatening the winner, but did pass every other rival on the way to his runner-up finish.
Far Right will return to Churchill, the site of his maiden win, for his 2nd start off a layoff in the Kentucky Derby. He arrived early to
train under the Twin Spires and posted his final drill 8 days before the race. Smith was mentioned for other mounts in the leadup
to the race, but opted to stay on Far Right in Louisville. The early tempo in the Derby is likely to be strong which could aid in
setting up a closer like Far Right for a strong stretch rally. However, he will need a great deal of racing luck and improvement the
likes of which he has not indicated he can offer. Thus, he seems destined to make little more than a minor impact.
15th Selection # 7 EL KABEIR 30-1 BOREL C TERRANOVA, II J
For most of 2015, Zayat Stables has had potential Kentucky Derby participants preparing in New York, California and Arkansas.
Obviously, the most fancied is American Pharoah, but El Kabeir has quietly enjoyed a strong start to the year. He now makes
the return trip to Churchill Downs that his connections dreamt of when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club here six months ago.
El Kabeir is by 2007 Florida Derby winner Scat Daddy, who contested that yearís Kentucky Derby. He has become a productive
sire and has seen his sons Daddy Long Legs and Daddy Nose Best contest the Kentucky Derby. He has also produced multiple
graded stake winner on the grass, Lady of Shamrock and ace turf sprinter, No Nay Never. El Kabeirís dam, Great Venue, was
unraced, and he is her first foal to make it to the racetrack. His 2nd dam, Rose Colored Lady, was an 8 time winner during
a career spent mostly in Ohio. The majority of El Kabeirís dam-side pedigree features Ohio bred stalwarts, including eventual
Grade II winner Too Much Bling. His dam was kin to 5 winners, four of whom scored stakes wins at some point in their careers.
The majority of them were better sprinting, so there is some stamina concern based on El Kabeirís pedigree.
When this colt went to the post in a maiden race on the final Saturday of the 2014 Saratoga meet, he was expected to be the
main competition for Royal Son. That rival had checked in a strong 2nd on Whitney day for trainer Todd Pletcher and now had
an outside post from which he could stalk the pace. Unfortunately for Royal Son, no one told El Kabeir he was just a secondary
player, as he wrested control of the race from the outset and never looked back. Riding a rail that carried nearly every horse who
raced on it to victory that afternoon, he pulled strongly clear in the lane to win by over 10 lengths. Trainer John Terranova was
jubilant afterwards and announced immediately that the next stop would be the Champagne. Stuck inside on a wet racetrack
with a deep rail, El Kabeir broke slowly before rushing up in the opening stages of the Champagne. He gave way late and wound
Page 14 of 18
up fourth at 5/2. This was a disappointing effort, and afterwards his connections announced that he would not pursue a start
in the Breedersí Cup Juvenile.
Following a 2nd career defeat at the heels of Blofeld, El Kabeir was sent to Churchill Downs for the aforementioned Kentucky
Jockey Club on the penultimate day of the fall meet. He received a rider change to Calvin Borel, who aggressively sent him to
the lead. He turned back every rival along the way, eventually holding on by a head. Having a win over the Churchill main track
is always an asset, and El Kabeir showed his tenacity in that late November score.
The New York route to Kentucky was chosen by El Kabeirís connections at the beginning of the year. With four objectives
between New Yearís Day and the first Saturday in May, he would have ample time to prepare and would end up with far more
seasoning than his peers. His handy win in the Jerome came against a very weak field, and he wound up getting upset at 1-2
five weeks later in the Withers. In that event, he chased the pace outside on a surface where the rail was very strong, and that
worked against him in crunch time. The Gotham would serve as a shot at redemption for El Kabeir, and he delivered with a strong
performance from off the pace. Jockey CC Lopez took him back in the opening stages and he finished powerfully to score by
almost three lengths. This newfound running style made him a more appealing horse, as he proved he would be able to negotiate
traffic and pass horses in crunch time.
The Wood Memorial is generally a tougher race than the Gotham, and this year was no exception. El Kabeir was 2-1 against
Daredevil and Frosted, and wound up finishing a dull third. Lopez once again dragged him back early, and the 1-2 finishers had
sprinted clear once this colt hit his stride. After looking like they had found the magic potion one race earlier, now the patient
tactics looked imprudent.
Borel will be back aboard El Kabeir in the Derby, and that will mark the first time they have partnered since the Kentucky Jockey
Club. Borelís Derby exploits need not be mentioned, and the public will surely find their way here knowing about the prior success
of the Cajun known affectionately as ìBoo Boo.î In truth, El Kabeir has not progressed as a three year-old the way he was
expected to, and is quite possibly not much better than he was when he won at Churchill in late November. Even an in the money
finish would be an accomplishment.
16th Selection #16 WAR STORY 50-1 TALAMO J AMOSS T
If you believed that the only boisterous, outspoken owner with a horse in this year's Kentucky Derby field is Ahmed Zayat, you
missed one. Ron Paolucci, owner of Loooch Racing Stables has shown three parts bravado for each part common sense since
he burst on the scene with Ria Antonia's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies win in 2013. Between running her against males in the
Preakness and sharing his wagers on her via social media, his panache has been considered the stuff of legend. Now, he has
landed on the biggest scene in racing, as War Story will be his first starter in the Kentucky Derby.
War Story is a son of Northern Afleet, a $7,500 stallion who produced 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, as well
as 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Amazaombie. War Story was purchased at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May 2014
after he worked a quarter-mile in :22 and 2/5 at the under tack show. He is out of a dam who was winless, but she produced
stakes caliber turfer Draw Two. War Story's second dam produced stakes winner Yoursmineours, who herself produced graded
stake winning router Shared Property and the stakes placed Whiskey Romeo. For a horse by an inexpensive stallion with a nondescript
first female family, War Story has a reasonably strong pedigree.
War Story debuted on the opening Saturday of the Churchill fall meet last November. He scored an impressive victory from off
the pace at 14-1, and Loooch saw enough in that effort to purchase him privately and transfer him to the barn of Tom Amoss.
That would mean a trip to the bayou for the winter, as Amoss keeps the bulk of his stable at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. In his
first start around two turns, he scored a handy win, pulling clear late after tracking the pace. Given that he was expected to win
that afternoon, it was a polished performance that showed his connections had made an astute private purchase.
With a pair of wins behind him, War Story was pointed to the graded stakes races on the trail to the Louisiana Derby. The first
of them was the Lecomte in mid-January, and this gelding was bet down to 5-1 in that bulky field. For the third consecutive start,
he had some issues leaving the starting gate, and that left him a tad farther off the pace than he had been in his first two outings.
Nonetheless, he recovered to reach contention around the far turn, only to be outfinished late by the rail-skimming International
Star. The 4-5 wide move he made around the bend was prolonged and impressive, leaving most observers thinking he could
reverse this defeat 5 weeks later in the Risen Star.
Piloted by new rider Kent Desormeaux in the Risen Star, War Story was bet down to 7/2 in a field of nine. In a virtual replay of the
Lecomte, War Story was away slowly then very wide around the far turn while International Star enjoyed a clear trip up the inside.
He came up a length short, but again covered significantly more ground than the winner after losing ground at the outset. Given
the difficulties he had faced in his last two starts, Paolucci felt confident that his charge would rebound in the Louisiana Derby.
Given his expectations that War Story would redeem himself in the Louisiana Derby, he offered to make a side bet with Ken
Ramsey that War Story would finish better than Ramsey's International Star. Fortunately, for Paolucci, Ramsey did not take that bet. War Story was a flat fourth after going wide on the far turn, spinning his wheels late to check in third at 2-1. He was compromised by a sluggish pace that afternoon, but lacked the same punch he had shown in prior outings at Fair Grounds.
The case was closed at this point. He is not at the level of a horse like International Star, who will also be a longshot in the
Kentucky Derby.War Story posted his penultimate workout before the Kentucky Derby 10 days before the race. He went out before the designated
training time, as trainer Tom Amoss opted to work him before dawn. Observers who had arrived early noted that he looked dull
in his workout, but Amoss assured them afterwards that he "knows the difference between training and racing." That could be
what Amoss wants some to believe, but it looks to be more of a tall tale than a factual statement. Had he worked strongly, it
still would have been tough to trust War Story. He becomes a complete throw-out with poor training and running lines that seem
to be stagnating.
17th Selection #17 MR. Z 50-1 VAZQUEZ R LUKAS D
The far-flung Zayat Stables operation will be represented by three runners in the 141st Kentucky Derby. They come from different
parts of the country, each horse is a different color and they have different trainers. The least heralded of the three is Mr. Z, a
1-12 colt who has had many close brushes with graded stake glory.
Mr. Z is by Malibu Moon, the sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. He was purchased for $135,000 at the Fasig-Tipton
October Kentucky sale in 2013, a paltry purchase price given the $95,000 stud fee for this top notch stallion. The dam-side of Mr.
Z's pedigree is heavily tilted towards turf, as his second dam produced Breeders' Cup Turf winner Chief Bearhart, Grade I turf
winner Explosive Red, and Canadian Grade II winner Ruby Ransom (dam of graded stakes winning turfer Strut the Stage). In
fact, his second dam was named Canadian Broodmare of the Year. This turf-oriented pedigree likely drove buyers away, which
explains his purchase price. Nonetheless, it is a pedigree worth noting for the stamina influences on the dam-side.
Mr. Z began his career early, as he debuted at Churchill Downs in June of his 2 year-old season. He was an impressive winner on
debut, besting a field that included subsequent stake winner Hashtag Bourbon. A busy summer and fall followed from there, as
this chestnut colt would make 7 more starts before the calendar turned to 2015. Following that maiden win, he narrowly missed
in the Sanford and checked in a strong second in the Saratoga Special. In those efforts, he showed the ability to rate and make
one run, a quality many young 2 year-olds do not possess.
As the distances increased during Mr. Z's juvenile campaign, his form slid a bit. A poor performance in the Iroquois at Churchill
was followed by a distant runner-up finish in the Breeders' Futurity. He showed plenty of speed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
before tiring late, then narrowly missed a score in the Delta Jackpot. Much like Will Take Charge, who raced for D. Wayne Lukas
in 2013, Mr. Z seemed to be thriving on racing. He improved with each passing start, eventually ending his season with a narrow
miss in the Los Alamitos Futurity to the highly regarded Dortmund and Firing Line.
Lukas is stabled each winter at Oaklawn, so the prep races there were targeted. Things got started early for Mr. Z, as he landed
in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn in mid-January. He put forth his usual early speed and turned for home firmly in command. As
the field neared the wire, he veered out badly, nearly unseating jockey Jon Court. He wound up third beaten just over two lengths
and his performance raised eyebrows given the inexplicable stretch antics. Lukas stayed the course afterwards and pointed him
to the logical next stop for an Arkansas-based sophomore, the Southwest Stakes. Racing over a sloppy surface for the first time,
he set a robust pace before tiring late and getting caught by Smarty Jones winner Far Right. This was another situation where
Mr. Z was brave in defeat, using his natural speed to clear the field from the far outside post, and nearly staying the trip.
With Zayat color bearer American Pharoah headed to Oaklawn for the Rebel, Mr. Z was re-routed to the Louisiana Derby.
An equipment change was planned, as his white blinkers were coming off for the trip to Fair Grounds. A rider switch to Kent
Desormeaux also happened, and neither of these changes paid off. He was ridden passively early and allowed a rival to establish
a soft pace. Two weeks later, the blinkers were back on, and yet another new rider had the call. Ramon Vazquez did not get Mr.
Z terribly involved early in the Arkansas Derby, but he stayed within striking distance to the far turn. He was no match for the
aforementioned American Pharoah, but narrowly lost a stretch-long battle to Far Right for the place.
Mr. Z has been asked a lot throughout his brief career. He comes in with the most starts of any Derby entrant (12), and he is also
on the longest losing streak (11). While tenacity and speed are among his best traits, he is simply not at the level of a potential
Derby winner. A minor placing is his ceiling, but even that seems a tad far fetched.
18th Selection #11 STANFORD 30-1 GEROUX F PLETCHER T
Nowadays it would not be a Kentucky Derby without Todd Pletcher trainees comprising at least 20% of the field. This year will
be no exception, as Pletcher is slated to saddle four horses in the Run for the Roses. They will each bid to become his second
winner in a race where he has one win from his first forty starters.
Page 16 of 18
Stanford has little to no pedigree on his dam-side. He is by Malibu Moon, one of the top stallions in the game and sire of 2013
Kentucky Derby winner Orb. His dam was unraced and is kin to multiple winner Opening Move, who earned just over $80,000
in his career. It takes going back to the 3rd generation of his dam-side pedigree for any black type, as his 2nd dam was a half
to 2001 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Johannesburg. It was not his pedigree that led Stonestreet Stables to purchase this colt
for $550,000 at the Barretts March Sale in 2014. It happened to be his blazing :9 and 4/5 workout at the under tack portion of
that sale that garnered support. It was the co-sale topper among workouts and he wound up the 4th highest priced horse in the
sale. The workout led to lofty expectations, even with his non-descript pedigree.
Stanford debuted with Pletcher's "B" team at Monmouth in the summer of 2014. Bet down to 3/5, he overcame a slow break
to win going away from well off the pace under Joe Bravo. That win earned him a trip to the Saratoga Special six weeks later.
Facing significantly tougher competition, Stanford once again got out of the gate slowly before launching a wide move on the far
turn. He ultimately tired in the final three furlongs, but hardly embarrassed himself in what was a stern test.
Following the Saratoga Special, Stanford was shelved by trainer Todd Pletcher because of an injury. Before his comeback race
in early February at Gulfstream, Pletcher was interviewed in the paddock by Caton Bredar of HRTV. He was set to saddle two
runners in that N1X optional claimer and assured Bredar that, despite Blame Jim being favored, Stanford was the fitter of his two
horses and the one he expected to run well. That statement proved prescient, as Stanford rolled by his beleaguered stablemate
at the furlong grounds to win going away.
Stuck with a potential sprinter in early March, Pletcher took the gamble that Stanford could get 9 furlongs. His first opportunity
came in the Islamorada, an overnight stake that also featured his stablemate Materiality. Stanford was favored in the compact
field of six, and Gulfstream's leading rider Javier Castellano put him on the lead right from the start. After veering out at the
entry to the backstretch, he opened up a comfortable lead heading to the far turn. Materiality confronted him in the vicinity of
the quarter-pole, and he immediately gave way. There was certainly a statement made by a Pletcher entrant in the race, but
it came from Materiality.
With two runners for the Florida Derby, many Pletcher trainees were forced to take their shows on the road for final Derby preps.
Stanford was sent to New Orleans for the Louisiana Derby in late March. Piloted by new jockey Florent Geroux, he broke from
the inside and once again showed ample early speed. The fractions he set were nothing more than moderate, but he got the
best of the other early pacesetters by the time the field had gone 7 furlongs. He was collared late by International Star, who
capped a perfect Fair Grounds meet with wins in all three major Kentucky Derby prep races. There was no doubt that Stanford
had improved off of his first route start and was now beginning to live up to his rich purchase price.
Stanford has early speed, but has landed in a field with horses that are faster than he. The early pace figures from his last two
starts cast a great deal of doubt on whether he can stand up to any early pressure going beyond one mile. He will also spot the
field valuable experience with only two starts around two turns. It is always nice to see a 3 year-old improving with each passing
start, but it would take a quantum leap forward for Stanford to be a threat in the Run for the Roses.
19th Selection #13 ITSAKNOCKOUT 30-1 SAEZ L PLETCHER T
In days gone by, the two most popular spectator sports were horse racing and boxing. The first Saturday in May will be considered
a "throwback" day of sorts as the Kentucky Derby will highlight the afternoon, while the heavily anticipated bout between Floyd
Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will take place later on in the evening. The hunch play for many Derby bettors will be this son
of Lemon Drop Kid because of his boxing-oriented name.
Itsaknockout was purchased for $350,000 20 months ago at Saratoga, a hefty price tag for connections that are known to shell out
large sums for auction purchases. Lemon Drop Kid has produced 5 Grade I winners as a stallion, and they have been victorious
on turf, dirt and synthetics. That versatility has kept his book full of top quality mares, and his stud fee at $40,000. The dam of
Itsaknockout was a minor winner who earned $24,000 on the racetrack and has now produced 2 winners from as many foals to
hit the track. She was out of a 3 time winner and 6 figure earner who produced graded stake winning turfer Rush Bay, who was
also graded stakes placed on dirt. His best race, though, came in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Churchill in 2006 when he finished
fourth behind Red Rocks. There is stamina in Itsaknockout's pedigree and that certainly contributed to his hearty purchase price.
He needed more time than normal to make it to the races, and wound up debuting in December of last year at Gulfstream. In a
driving finish, he was up by a nose at 5-1, but his victory hardly garnered a great deal of attention. Thus, trainer Todd Pletcher
opted to run him in an entry level Allowance event at Gulfstream in January. Itsaknockout won handily from just off the pace
and rewarded his backers as the 5/2 favorite. It was the type of performance that Pletcher trainees have posted with regularity
at Gulfstream over the years. Pletcher is forced each winter to orchestrate plans for an endless supply of stakes caliber 3 yearolds,
and Itsaknockout was lucky enough to earn a start at home in the Fountain of Youth. He was the third choice in a race
that included Holy Bull winner Upstart and Remsen runner-up Frosted. Regular rider Luis Saez patiently took ahold of him early
and Intsaknockoout rated kindly off the demanding pace. When Upstart reached the front in mid-stretch, there was brief contact
between him and Itsaknockout. In a controversial decision, the stewards disqualified Upstart and elevated Itsaknockout to the top spot. Suddenly, a horse who had not debuted until December that was making just his 3rd career start in late February had a ticket to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby.
The Florida Derby was Itsaknockout's final prep for his engagement in the commonwealth. He was being asked to validate the
improvement he had shown 5 weeks before in the Fountain of Youth. Unfortunately for his backers, he was unable to do so and
wound up a listless 4th at 5-1. Not only was he unable to keep up with Materiality and Upstart, but he was thoroughly dusted for
3rd by an otherwise ordinary horse in Ami's Flatter. There was no discernible excuse for his sluggish performance, other than
to assume that he is simply not of Grade I caliber.
For a brief period after the Florida Derby, the principal owner of Starlight Racing, Jack Wolf, questioned whether Itsaknockout
was worthy of starting in the Kentucky Derby. He said to Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal, "Looking at these
(handicapping) sheet numbers on these other horses, I mean, good Lord, this horse will be 50-1. I'm going to have to do a lot of
convincing to myself. The only way I think we can make a case is that the last race you just have to completely draw a line through."
With Itsaknockout still projected to start, Wolf must have done the proper convincing of himself. However, his comments are
accurate and his charge is a deserving longshot. He will need to completely reverse his form after the poor Florida Derby outing,
and that is unlikely in a race that provides a test unlike any he has ever seen.
20th Selection # 1 OCHO OCHO OCHO 50-1 TRUJILLO E CASSIDY J
There was doubt in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby about whether Ocho Ocho Ocho would start. He was confirmed
as of Wednesday morning, despite two subpar outings in 2015 that have erased any luster he earned as a juvenile. The winner
of the Grade III Delta Jackpot in November, he enters on a two-race losing streak after falling to Dortmund in California and
Carpe Diem in Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho was purchased for $200,000 at the OBS April sale a year ago. He is by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street
Sense, who has produced Grade I winners Sweet Reason, Aubby K and Callback. Ocho Ocho Ocho is a half to Private Ensign,
a stake caliber mare who raced for Siena Farm in the care of Dale Romans and then Todd Pletcher. The second family on the
damside of this pedigree can be traced back to a number of Phipps Stable stalwarts from years past. His second dam, Pennant
Champion, is a sister of Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Miner's Mark, as well as Grade I winners Traditionally and Our Emblem.
She was also kin to Proud and True, a sister of Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner My Flag. Pennant Champion herself
produced Grade III turf winner Animal Spirits, as well as Broad Pennant, the dam of Grade II winner Interactif. Ocho Ocho Ocho
worked: 10 and 1/5 at the under tack portion of the sale and still went for the bargain price of $200,000 given his regal pedigree.
With a nifty win from just off the pace, Ocho Ocho Ocho began his career in style for trainer James Cassidy. He was entered
for the turf on the Breeders' Cup undercard in early November, but overnight rain moved that race to the main track. That left
this colt a heavy favorite, and he won handily while staying close to a hot pace. Cassidy wanted to give him a chance against
tougher foes late in his two year-old season, so he shipped him to Vinton, Louisiana for the Delta Jackpot. He won a stirring
stretch battle with Mr. Z, who had competed well against graded stakes foes throughout 2014. Mike Smith was aboard for the
first time, and he was able to get him to relax nicely just off the pace in the opening stages. Cassidy decided to give him a brief
break afterwards with an eye on two preps before a potential trip to Kentucky.
Ocho Ocho Ocho's return to the races as a three year-old was delayed and did not occur until early March in the San Felipe. It
pitted him against Dortmund and the highly regarded allowance winner Prospect Park. After a slow break from the gate, he was
steadied heading to the first turn under Mike Smith. He wound up tiring badly in the final half-mile and beat just two rivals home.
Ocho was beaten over 15 lengths in the end, and certainly did not show what was expected given his 4-1 odds. Cassidy did not
waver afterwards and said that he would be pointed to a final prep either in California or somewhere around the country. He settled
on the Blue Grass, where he ran into the heavily favored Carpe Diem. Ridden for the first time by Santiago Gonzalez, he was put
on the lead from an inside post and backed the pace down in the opening half-mile. When Carpe Diem was asked to run, Ocho
Ocho Ocho put up little to no resistance. He held on for third, but once again fell short of the expectations that existed beforehand.
In each and every year, a three year-old is on the Kentucky Derby trail who had made a splash the year before. The pack tends
to catch up to many of them who were just a tad more precocious, and Ocho Ocho Ocho can be categorized as such. There have
been negative reports on his training during the week leading up to the Derby, and that is significant when you couple it with his
poor recent form. He is a pace factor at best and is not expected to make any impact when the final results are made official.
Wagering Strategy
I am not going to suggest making a win bet on American Pharoah as the 5-2 morning line favorite. I will instead attack the Exactas
and Trifecta's and one superfecta play if you want to take a shot for a potential score.
************************************************** ********
* $2 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over ALL = $38
* $20 Exacta (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (8) DORTMUND, reverse for $10
* $8 Exactas (18) AMERICAN PHAROAH over (6) MUBTAAHIJ, (10) FIRING LINE, & (15) FROSTED, reverse each for $2
************************************************** ***
TRIFECTAS:
Ticket 1: BOX: 6-8-10-15-18 = $30 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 2: 8-18 over 6-8-10-15-18 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-18-19 = $44 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 3: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over ALL = $36 for a $0.50 wager
Ticket 4: 18 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-12-14-15-19 = $22 for a $0.50 wager
Total Trifectas = $132
*******************************************
Superfecta: 18 over 6-8-15 over 6-8-10-15 over 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12-14-15-19-20 = $108 for a $1 wager
Courtesy of Kevin Cox
Race 11
1. Mubtaahij ( Ire )
2. International Star
3.Materiality
4.Dortmund
5. El Kabeir
Well here it is, the granddaddy of them all---The Kentucky Derby. You know, when you do this for a living, your first goal is to always make a dollar. However with this race, there's a certain amount of pride in getting the winner ( or even a nice priced runner up ! ). On a personal note, our winners over the last 25 years have been Strike The Gold ( 1991-$11 ), War Emblem ( 2002-$43 ) and Funny Cide ( 2003-$28 ). Cool thing about that last one is that just this past year, I ended up becoming good friends with 'Cide's owner, nice guy, Jack Knowlton. ( Amazing how things come full circle in this game. ). Well, by looking at those prices above, and for those that read me on a regular basis, it's pretty fair to say that I look for a nice number whenever possible. This year is the deepest field I think I've ever seen in my lifetime, and unlike Derby's in years gone by, where many runners are hardly heard from again, I believe you'll be hearing a whole hell of a lot from the majority of these throughout this year and next. Okay, now to quote R. Lee Ermey from 'Full Metal Jacket', let's "Hit it, sweetheart !" ...... The connections of the #6 MUBTAAHIJ are endeavouring to set some trends with a win in this years run for the roses in looking to become the first: Irish bred/Saudi Based/South African trained/French ridden animal to win the worlds greatest race. DeCock is doing it in thoroughly unconventional style---sans Lasix. Now, while there have in fact been winners of this race that didn't use the drug, it's extremely avante garde to attempt to do such a thing. I say that because the use of it has become so farcical that you can have a full field of unraced 2 year olds at Saratoga, or the best on the planet in the Breeders' Cup, and they'll mostly ALL be using the stuff, which is a crock, as they're not all bleeders, but it "helps 'em run faster". Whatever. Additionally, this colt that is just a noggin' shy of a perfect 5 for 5 dirt record, trains without shoes ! ( How cool is that ! ) He'll reportedly be shod the morning of the race. Okay, neat factoids aside, why do we like the animal ? Well, the 8 length win in Dubai was visually impressive, he's the only entrant to have run ( and won ) at a distance farther than a mile and an eighth, he is battle tested ( faced an average field size of 10.1 in his career, and just Keen Ice has faced more ), been looking great in the mornings, boasts the highest Tomlinson at this distance ( by 30 points, which is substantial ), and if you still are a beliver in the Dosage theory ( which I have no problem looking at ), is one of 7 in here that fit the parameters. Furthermore ( and heretofore, and shut the door ! ) his style of racing is perfectly suited for how I believe the race will set up. Half this field were no farther back than 3 lengths at the first point of call in their most recent start, and with 20 horses signed on, I'm envisioning a glut of runners gunning for position early. Now look at the race comments for our top choice: "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders". Get the point ? This horse can allow himself to be put wherever the pilot wants him ( and who's better than riding covered up, but European jockeys ? ) and patiently wait for that ( inevitable ) daylight late. I'm diggin' the scene at 20-1, you hep cats ! Well, as we just gave a "multi-country" analogy a few sentences back, it's only apropos that the #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR will be our next selection. This chap has been extremely professional of late, and just take a gander at those adjusted ascending Beyers, will ya ? --- 84.7--88.1--91.5--96. That's basically a 4% increase in each of those starts, and if it were to occur again, than a 100 or so would put this one in the hunt. Definitely a New York Bred worth rooting for ( and tossing a couple of fazools on ). I've kinda flip flopped my 3rd and 4th selections from a radio interview I did earlier today, so full disclosure here. If there were ever anybody that could get the most out of a speed horse in a field laden with speed---ever a jockey that you should not discount on an undefeated animal at 12-1---that would be Javier Castellano on the #3 MATERIALITY. The numbers are most definitely going in the right direction, and if Dortmund stubs his hoof, and American Pharoah not dig being in a different zip code, well then, hey nowwwwww...... As a numbers guy, obviously I love the #8 DORTMUND, and what's not to like ? He's powerful, beautiful, and BIG. But therein lies the rub. He's big. The biggest horse in the field with legs like a giraffe is more likely to run into some trouble with the other 76 legs on the track, no ? Plus, what about his own gams ? What if he doesn't get a chance to unfurl those big, beautiful things like he wants to ? Listen, don't get me wrong, I'll be using this fella in my rollers, and if he wins, I'll most definitely tip my cowboy hat to him. But at 3-1 ? Nah. For super hi-5 purposes, we'll slide the #7 El KABEIR in there, due to the noticeable change in tactics in the last two outings, as well as a switch from C.C. Lopez to Calvin Borel, which at this trip, is akin to a 5 pound break. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH has never broken farther out than the 6 hole ( has the 17 chute today ), will not get an easy lead, and ( for whatever it's worth ) doesn't fit on Dosage. Take 5-2 or less on this horse ? Not with a potato gun to my head.
Race 11
1. Mubtaahij ( Ire )
2. International Star
3.Materiality
4.Dortmund
5. El Kabeir
Well here it is, the granddaddy of them all---The Kentucky Derby. You know, when you do this for a living, your first goal is to always make a dollar. However with this race, there's a certain amount of pride in getting the winner ( or even a nice priced runner up ! ). On a personal note, our winners over the last 25 years have been Strike The Gold ( 1991-$11 ), War Emblem ( 2002-$43 ) and Funny Cide ( 2003-$28 ). Cool thing about that last one is that just this past year, I ended up becoming good friends with 'Cide's owner, nice guy, Jack Knowlton. ( Amazing how things come full circle in this game. ). Well, by looking at those prices above, and for those that read me on a regular basis, it's pretty fair to say that I look for a nice number whenever possible. This year is the deepest field I think I've ever seen in my lifetime, and unlike Derby's in years gone by, where many runners are hardly heard from again, I believe you'll be hearing a whole hell of a lot from the majority of these throughout this year and next. Okay, now to quote R. Lee Ermey from 'Full Metal Jacket', let's "Hit it, sweetheart !" ...... The connections of the #6 MUBTAAHIJ are endeavouring to set some trends with a win in this years run for the roses in looking to become the first: Irish bred/Saudi Based/South African trained/French ridden animal to win the worlds greatest race. DeCock is doing it in thoroughly unconventional style---sans Lasix. Now, while there have in fact been winners of this race that didn't use the drug, it's extremely avante garde to attempt to do such a thing. I say that because the use of it has become so farcical that you can have a full field of unraced 2 year olds at Saratoga, or the best on the planet in the Breeders' Cup, and they'll mostly ALL be using the stuff, which is a crock, as they're not all bleeders, but it "helps 'em run faster". Whatever. Additionally, this colt that is just a noggin' shy of a perfect 5 for 5 dirt record, trains without shoes ! ( How cool is that ! ) He'll reportedly be shod the morning of the race. Okay, neat factoids aside, why do we like the animal ? Well, the 8 length win in Dubai was visually impressive, he's the only entrant to have run ( and won ) at a distance farther than a mile and an eighth, he is battle tested ( faced an average field size of 10.1 in his career, and just Keen Ice has faced more ), been looking great in the mornings, boasts the highest Tomlinson at this distance ( by 30 points, which is substantial ), and if you still are a beliver in the Dosage theory ( which I have no problem looking at ), is one of 7 in here that fit the parameters. Furthermore ( and heretofore, and shut the door ! ) his style of racing is perfectly suited for how I believe the race will set up. Half this field were no farther back than 3 lengths at the first point of call in their most recent start, and with 20 horses signed on, I'm envisioning a glut of runners gunning for position early. Now look at the race comments for our top choice: "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leaders", "Tracked leader", "Tracked leaders". Get the point ? This horse can allow himself to be put wherever the pilot wants him ( and who's better than riding covered up, but European jockeys ? ) and patiently wait for that ( inevitable ) daylight late. I'm diggin' the scene at 20-1, you hep cats ! Well, as we just gave a "multi-country" analogy a few sentences back, it's only apropos that the #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR will be our next selection. This chap has been extremely professional of late, and just take a gander at those adjusted ascending Beyers, will ya ? --- 84.7--88.1--91.5--96. That's basically a 4% increase in each of those starts, and if it were to occur again, than a 100 or so would put this one in the hunt. Definitely a New York Bred worth rooting for ( and tossing a couple of fazools on ). I've kinda flip flopped my 3rd and 4th selections from a radio interview I did earlier today, so full disclosure here. If there were ever anybody that could get the most out of a speed horse in a field laden with speed---ever a jockey that you should not discount on an undefeated animal at 12-1---that would be Javier Castellano on the #3 MATERIALITY. The numbers are most definitely going in the right direction, and if Dortmund stubs his hoof, and American Pharoah not dig being in a different zip code, well then, hey nowwwwww...... As a numbers guy, obviously I love the #8 DORTMUND, and what's not to like ? He's powerful, beautiful, and BIG. But therein lies the rub. He's big. The biggest horse in the field with legs like a giraffe is more likely to run into some trouble with the other 76 legs on the track, no ? Plus, what about his own gams ? What if he doesn't get a chance to unfurl those big, beautiful things like he wants to ? Listen, don't get me wrong, I'll be using this fella in my rollers, and if he wins, I'll most definitely tip my cowboy hat to him. But at 3-1 ? Nah. For super hi-5 purposes, we'll slide the #7 El KABEIR in there, due to the noticeable change in tactics in the last two outings, as well as a switch from C.C. Lopez to Calvin Borel, which at this trip, is akin to a 5 pound break. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH has never broken farther out than the 6 hole ( has the 17 chute today ), will not get an easy lead, and ( for whatever it's worth ) doesn't fit on Dosage. Take 5-2 or less on this horse ? Not with a potato gun to my head.
MATT GRAVES SELECTIONS
KENTUCKY DERBY Churchill Downs May 2, 2015
Race 1: 1-8-2
Race 2: 5-3-8
Race 3: 2-9-8
Race 4: 6-3-5
Race 5: 6-3-5
Race 6: 4-1-14
Race 7: 8-3-1
Race 8: 8-11-4
Race 9: 2-4-5
Race 10: 11-7-5
Race 11: 18-8-3
Race 12: 12-4-13
Race 13: 8-6-4
PLAY OF THE DAY: Bayern, 9th race
KENTUCKY DERBY Churchill Downs May 2, 2015
Race 1: 1-8-2
Race 2: 5-3-8
Race 3: 2-9-8
Race 4: 6-3-5
Race 5: 6-3-5
Race 6: 4-1-14
Race 7: 8-3-1
Race 8: 8-11-4
Race 9: 2-4-5
Race 10: 11-7-5
Race 11: 18-8-3
Race 12: 12-4-13
Race 13: 8-6-4
PLAY OF THE DAY: Bayern, 9th race
GUS ALONSO'S DERBY DAY ACTION
Churchill Downs
R11 - G1 Kentucky Derby
Selections:
#8 Dortmund
#9 Bolo
#3 Materiality
#19 Upstart
#2 Carpe Diem
PK6 - 1 2 4 5 6 8 / 8 / 3 4 5 9 / 2 4 / 7 9 / 8 = $192
PK4 - 3 4 5 8 9 / 2 4 / 7 8 9 / 2 3 8 9 19 = $75 for $.50
OAKS / DERBY Double - - 1 2 7 8 10 13 / 3 8 9 = $18 X 4 = $72
OAKS / DERBY Double - Press - $10 - 7 10 13 / 8 9
OAKS / WOODFORD / DERBY - PK3 $1 - 1 2 7 8 10 13 / 7 8 9 / 3 8 9 = $54
Churchill Downs
R11 - G1 Kentucky Derby
Selections:
#8 Dortmund
#9 Bolo
#3 Materiality
#19 Upstart
#2 Carpe Diem
PK6 - 1 2 4 5 6 8 / 8 / 3 4 5 9 / 2 4 / 7 9 / 8 = $192
PK4 - 3 4 5 8 9 / 2 4 / 7 8 9 / 2 3 8 9 19 = $75 for $.50
OAKS / DERBY Double - - 1 2 7 8 10 13 / 3 8 9 = $18 X 4 = $72
OAKS / DERBY Double - Press - $10 - 7 10 13 / 8 9
OAKS / WOODFORD / DERBY - PK3 $1 - 1 2 7 8 10 13 / 7 8 9 / 3 8 9 = $54
STEVE BYK
CHURCHILL DOWNS -- KENTUCKY DERBY DAY
11th: 141st Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #8 Dortmund 3-1
Next Best: #10 Firing Line 12-1
Exotics Use: #18 American Pharoah 5-2
Best Value: #4 Tendencur 30-1
Super Add: #3 Materiality 12-1
Hi-5 Play: #6 Mubtaahij 20-1
P4 Grid:
8: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 1-11 (C)
9: 2 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), 2-7-8-10 (B), 9-11-12 (C)
11: 8 (A), 10-18 (B), 3-4-6-9-19 (C)
Full (A/B/C): $96.00 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 4x4x6x3 = 288 x .50 = $144.00
CHURCHILL DOWNS -- KENTUCKY DERBY DAY
11th: 141st Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #8 Dortmund 3-1
Next Best: #10 Firing Line 12-1
Exotics Use: #18 American Pharoah 5-2
Best Value: #4 Tendencur 30-1
Super Add: #3 Materiality 12-1
Hi-5 Play: #6 Mubtaahij 20-1
P4 Grid:
8: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 1-11 (C)
9: 2 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
10: 3-5 (A), 2-7-8-10 (B), 9-11-12 (C)
11: 8 (A), 10-18 (B), 3-4-6-9-19 (C)
Full (A/B/C): $96.00 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 4x4x6x3 = 288 x .50 = $144.00
