Capper Advice Needed! Which game do i leave out?

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I have my eye on these 5 games, but can only choose 4 in a league I'm in. These are the lines I have to go on as well:

Duke -6.5
Ole Miss +22.5
South Florida -9
Penn St -14
Troy St +16.5

Which game would you feel least confident in? And pushes = loss.

Thanks in advance for any advice!
 

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PENN ST -14.

Unpredictable ILLINI can upend the apple cart. So DD chalk is no Guaroonnnteee.
 

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Definitely, 100%, leave out Troy. In fact, replace it with Oklahoma State minus the points. Oklahoma State has numerous advantages in this spot. Here are some:

1. They are a rested team coming off a bye.
2. They are always a lot tougher at home historically.
3. Troy is playing their second consecutive game as a big road underdog. Last week at Ohio State was their super bowl and they brought their "A" game and still lost handily. They won't bring anything close to their "A" game here. Just hard to get up again when the odds are stacked so heavily against you. This game is pretty meaningless to Troy in the grand scheme of things.
4. Oklahoma State was embarrassed on national TV by Troy last year. They have to have this game circled on the calendar.
5. Gundy will run up the score if he can, and he has the quick strike offense to do it too.
6. Troy just isn't as good this year as they were last year. Troy lost their QB, top RB, top 2 receivers and 2 CBs (both these guys in the NFL) from last year's team. While Troy will still be solid in conference play, this is kind of a rebuilding year for them.

This has blowout written all over it.
 

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PENN ST -14.

Unpredictable ILLINI can upend the apple cart. So DD chalk is no Guaroonnnteee.

On the flip side, the unpredictable Illini can also get blown out, and i think that is the more likely scenario than Illinois going in there and playing tough. This is their first true road game of the year and it will be really tough for them to keep up with Penn State's improved offense since their defense is weaker this season. Also, Penn State should be getting their suspended defensive linemen for this one, making an already good D even stronger.
 

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Troy was actually the one I was leaning to, mainly cause I dont like the 16.5 and would much prefer the 17, but great stuff there nd2000 - thanks for convincing me!
 

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