My buddy from another forum has an opinion on this game... Another thing you will find in the correspondent thread..
CHW-MIN
-Pavano hasn't been terrible against the ChiSox, which you would expect considering the line. He's been hit by Beckham (.357 but all singles), Pierre (.353 all singles), Pierzynski (.400) and Konerko (.379) while he's absolutely owned Carlos Quentin who's 0/13 against Carl. Pavano's off of two great starts, neither with huge pitch counts, and both were actually on the road where he got lit up in Boston, KC and Baltimore. At home he has been pretty good this season, at least keeping his team in the game since the end of April. Meanwhile, Gavin Floyd has been a guy that was great at home and bad on the road. The Twins haven't really gotten to him as Cuddyer sits .258, Morneau .231 and Young .261, while Alexi Casilla at .300 and Valencia's terrible form is 3/9. Floyd pitched well in Boston to get a W against a great team, but followed that up with the minimum QS (6ip 3er) in a loss vs. SEA. Of his last 6 road starts, he's got 4 QS yet I still don't understand why he opened laying 40 cents. He wins 60% of his decisions at home, but only 46% on the road. Gavin is 14-14 when he gets between 3 and 5 runs of support, so he's a guy that wins when he gets 6+ (34-3) and loses when he doesn't get more than 2 (3-29). The six-man rotation is done, so he's on 5 days rest and besides 3 days that is his worst. He's got a 5.17 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in this situation, which gives him a win% of 52% only worse when he's on 6+ so he looks like a guy that likes to work consistently. He's 4-8 with a 5.27 ERA vs. MIN in his career, he's 0.85 runs worse in terms of ERA at night compared to the daytime, and he's 0-2 (6.97) at Target Field. The ChiSox are a power team that likes to hit the ball out of the ballpark, but Pavano in his career gives up about 1 HR every 9+ innings. He's weaker against lefties, which gives Pierzynski/Teahen/Pierre advantages, while helping him against the scarier side that includes Konerko/Rios/Beckham/Quentin. Much like Floyd, he wins 57% at home and 47% on the road, and somehow he's 96-29 when he gets 3+ runs of support. So if the Twins small-ball lineup can support him he should get a win. The extra day gives a thin pen time to heal, and it puts Pavano on 5 days rest where he wins 57% of his decisions (his best split). Carl has a 6-3 record with a 3.94 ERA vs. CHW and he likes the night much better. At Target Field he's 10-5 with a 3.54 ERA, and he's pitched at least 7 innings in his last 5 starts. Morneau's MRI was negative, Capps' wrist isn't bothering him and the bullpen didn't have to really work at all on Saturday or Sunday so that gives them three days to heal up. I'm in...
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Minnesota ML (+120) vs. Chicago
-If Morneau doesn't play you would think it would be a huge loss, but he hasn't really been helping at all lately. The team has won 9 of 11 and is ready to make a run as Mauer should be back on Thursday. Crowd should be good and the Twins are going to start their run...
CHW-MIN
-Pavano hasn't been terrible against the ChiSox, which you would expect considering the line. He's been hit by Beckham (.357 but all singles), Pierre (.353 all singles), Pierzynski (.400) and Konerko (.379) while he's absolutely owned Carlos Quentin who's 0/13 against Carl. Pavano's off of two great starts, neither with huge pitch counts, and both were actually on the road where he got lit up in Boston, KC and Baltimore. At home he has been pretty good this season, at least keeping his team in the game since the end of April. Meanwhile, Gavin Floyd has been a guy that was great at home and bad on the road. The Twins haven't really gotten to him as Cuddyer sits .258, Morneau .231 and Young .261, while Alexi Casilla at .300 and Valencia's terrible form is 3/9. Floyd pitched well in Boston to get a W against a great team, but followed that up with the minimum QS (6ip 3er) in a loss vs. SEA. Of his last 6 road starts, he's got 4 QS yet I still don't understand why he opened laying 40 cents. He wins 60% of his decisions at home, but only 46% on the road. Gavin is 14-14 when he gets between 3 and 5 runs of support, so he's a guy that wins when he gets 6+ (34-3) and loses when he doesn't get more than 2 (3-29). The six-man rotation is done, so he's on 5 days rest and besides 3 days that is his worst. He's got a 5.17 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in this situation, which gives him a win% of 52% only worse when he's on 6+ so he looks like a guy that likes to work consistently. He's 4-8 with a 5.27 ERA vs. MIN in his career, he's 0.85 runs worse in terms of ERA at night compared to the daytime, and he's 0-2 (6.97) at Target Field. The ChiSox are a power team that likes to hit the ball out of the ballpark, but Pavano in his career gives up about 1 HR every 9+ innings. He's weaker against lefties, which gives Pierzynski/Teahen/Pierre advantages, while helping him against the scarier side that includes Konerko/Rios/Beckham/Quentin. Much like Floyd, he wins 57% at home and 47% on the road, and somehow he's 96-29 when he gets 3+ runs of support. So if the Twins small-ball lineup can support him he should get a win. The extra day gives a thin pen time to heal, and it puts Pavano on 5 days rest where he wins 57% of his decisions (his best split). Carl has a 6-3 record with a 3.94 ERA vs. CHW and he likes the night much better. At Target Field he's 10-5 with a 3.54 ERA, and he's pitched at least 7 innings in his last 5 starts. Morneau's MRI was negative, Capps' wrist isn't bothering him and the bullpen didn't have to really work at all on Saturday or Sunday so that gives them three days to heal up. I'm in...
add
Minnesota ML (+120) vs. Chicago
-If Morneau doesn't play you would think it would be a huge loss, but he hasn't really been helping at all lately. The team has won 9 of 11 and is ready to make a run as Mauer should be back on Thursday. Crowd should be good and the Twins are going to start their run...
I went with the Pirates small, Karstens has been very good this season. Astros are still a horrible team and still have a horrible BP.
Norris is what you would call an average pitcher, not great not terrible somewhere in between..
I think the price being where it is, is very telling.. Astros only very small faves @ home vs Pirates?
Pirates much improved and they have a record of over .500 on the road..
small play on Pirates for me.. GL buddy
Norris is what you would call an average pitcher, not great not terrible somewhere in between..
I think the price being where it is, is very telling.. Astros only very small faves @ home vs Pirates?
Pirates much improved and they have a record of over .500 on the road..
small play on Pirates for me.. GL buddy
stuff like this is available everyday in the correspondent thread.. guys like METFAN, hookemhorns, myself among many others are in there on a daily basis delievering key information and valuable insight on these games..
here is a link to the thread.. a new one is started every 3-4 days.
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=849444&page=2
here is a link to the thread.. a new one is started every 3-4 days.
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=849444&page=2
