Can you hit 60%?

[TheWolf]

Jeez, how hard is it to use Excel? hno:

I come up with ~260 billion after 1825 trials (precisely 60%/1095 winners, 1 bet a day for 5 years, starting bankroll $1000, each bet being 10% of bankroll). Obviously, your final figure will vary depending on the W/L patterns you encounter along the way.

What I said.

 

[Doug]

Many of us aren't skilled in Excel, some have no idea how to figure simpler stuff like going 10-0... two to tenth power= 1024.

I'm in the middle area, no formal computer training.

 

[LarryLegend]

Jeez, how hard is it to use Excel? hno:

I come up with ~260 billion after 1825 trials (precisely 60%/1095 winners, 1 bet a day for 5 years, starting bankroll $1000, each bet being 10% of bankroll). Obviously, your final figure will vary depending on the W/L patterns you encounter along the way.

Ok I don't have excel nor know how to use it. But now how do you add in the human factor?

this is all computed with a guaranteee of 60%. How many of us bet knowing we are going to hit 60%.
How many bettors increase their bankroll after each and every play?


I guess this is just a math formula with no real life value to it.


If you put into the excel program, , say 300 plays winning 60% of the plays, how much would that make? Just curious.

 

[Doug]

The Fezzik presumption is you will hit 60%, one could get anal about it, and say... what if you go 0-100, then order matters ( maybe), but it's virtually impossible for a 50% dart-thrower to go even 80-20, or 20-80, let alone a 60% picker.

I'll trust Fezz has his math right, even summon Ganchrow if needed.

 

[Doug]

Ok I don't have excel nor know how to use it. But now how do you add in the human factor?

this is all computed with a guaranteee of 60%. How many of us bet knowing we are going to hit 60%.
How many bettors increase their bankroll after each and every play?


I guess this is just a math formula with no real life value to it.

That's because you can't hit 60%


If you put into the excel program, , say 300 plays winning 60% of the plays, how much would that make? Just curious.

:monsters-

 

[bdgear]

fezzick will take all the action anyone wants to give him that you cant hit 57% in the hilton contest so larrythelegend have at ithno:

 

[MattRain]

I get $2108.93 after 300 plays on this particular set of trials. Nasty negative variance at the very beginning. It does pick up speed (and then some!) later on.

I'll link to my Excel file and a PDF version in a few.

 

[jwunderdog]

Do you feel there's at least a 50% chance you personally can hit 60% or better over 100 games?

Let's assume you have an entire calendar year (1 full season of every sport). With this set-up you can be very selective.
Plays would be against standard -110 lines.

No where near a 50% chance and I have hit over 60% in 100 plays. I wouldn't take the bet even if you were giving me 10-1 odd, you give me 30-1 and I may bite.

 

[MattRain]

Excel

PDF

I used a simple RAND() function to generate 60% winners at random. I removed a few by hand to get exactly 1200.

As you can see, by year 2, you'll run into most sportsbooks bet limits. So no, this isn't applicable to the real world, but I believe that Fezzik simply wanted to demonstrate how crazy rich one could become, betting only one game a day, if one could sustain a 60% win rate.

Nice example of the power of compound interest too.

 

[WVU]

WVU, what odds are you willing to give here?

I would say at least 2-1 but I love having the edge

 

[spreadbeater]

Yes, I think I can. In fact, I am at 62% through 99 games so far in the NBA.

 

[jwunderdog]

I would say at least 2-1 but I love having the edge

WVU, You are not satisfied with WVU winning, now you are trying steal. a 50 % prop has less then a 3% chance of hitting 60% over a hundred plays.

 

[WVU]

WVU, You are not satisfied with WVU winning, now you are trying steal. a 50 % prop has less then a 3% chance of hitting 60% over a hundred plays.

My WVU Poker challenge is pretty damn near stealing too. That won't stop choptalk from attempting again though.

 

[LarryLegend]

Excel

PDF

I used a simple RAND() function to generate 60% winners at random. I removed a few by hand to get exactly 1200.

As you can see, by year 2, you'll run into most sportsbooks bet limits. So no, this isn't applicable to the real world, but I believe that Fezzik simply wanted to demonstrate how crazy rich one could become, betting only one game a day, if one could sustain a 60% win rate.

Nice example of the power of compound interest too.

Damn Interesting stuff.
Thanks for showing me the numbers.

Sorry to hijack the thread goodcall.

MattRain, could you do the same thing for 54%. I would be interested to how that works out.

Thanks

 

[Doug]

Yes, I think I can. In fact, I am at 62% through 99 games so far in the NBA.

at +100 ? I'd do it, but I stay out of this stuff generally, don't like betting with posters. Brian holds the money ?

 

[MattRain]

Damn Interesting stuff.
Thanks for showing me the numbers.

Sorry to hijack the thread goodcall.

MattRain, could you do the same thing for 54%. I would be interested to how that works out.

Thanks

Sure, but the thing is, you can't bet 10% if you "only" win at a 54% clip. You will very quickly zero out.

One bet a day, 54% win rate at -110 calls for 3.4% bets (full Kelly). Using this, after 2000 plays/days, your balance would sit at ~$2740.

If you have the luxury of a reduced -105 shop, you can bet 5.7% per play/day, which brings you to a bit over 20k after 2000 days.

Quite the contrast.

BTW, full Kelly for a 60% win rate at -110 calls for 16% bets!

 

[ProPokerPlayer]

What the hell r u guysc so hung up on the 550b part. has nothing to do with the point Fez was making which is if your buying picks from a tout who claims 60% winrate realize this guy should have Calvin Ayre, Spiro, Walters , Clubman Coop size pockets.....is not in an apt in Philly or on the beach in San Diego . anybody hitting 60 over time is makinh HUGE bucks if they know anything about sportsbetting at all......your avg tout works out of his mothers garage apt and is in the buisness cus there is no way in hell he will EVER hit 60% winners.

Also if the R/X or enough posters want to put together a $40,000 prize for documented 60% in 100 plays over 1 yrs time sign me up as the 1st contestant. any poster would make 10 times that following the plays and this site would bigger than Google...$40,000 would be cheap.....

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

I believe it can be done over the course of any season...nobody does it over a year!
Anyone can have a great season be it football, baseball, or basketball....

 

[Akillies]

Say what you will about Fezzik, but i can assure you he knows statistics. The quoted article is very good , that is why it has been referred too so often. Notice how slight adjustments to win rate and % of bankroll have a huge impact.

Since B W seems to be well respected, How do you think he did last season in CBB?

 

[Murphy8276]

Also if the R/X or enough posters want to put together a $40,000 prize for documented 60% in 100 plays over 1 yrs time sign me up as the 1st contestant. any poster would make 10 times that following the plays and this site would bigger than Google...$40,000 would be cheap.....

this is jus pure greed!!


First off 3/4 of us would do this for a free 1000$

and half of the people here would do it for 100$ prize...so 40K is jus outlandish to even ask for, but nice try.


2nd - No one would make ANY money off your or anyone in the contests picks, because they would never know if the people with any good or not till after the 100 bets were won, and people do this on forums every day, jus cant do it time and time again (most of them)


3rd - why pay u or anyone else 40K or even the 1K i talked about when we get ur selections few and far between now at a 45-55% rate like every other tom, dick, and harry JOE PUBLIC?


Good riddens-


-murph