Can the bettors get any sharper on NBA totals?

[Braveheart]

Can the bettors get any sharper on NBA totals?

It seems to me the books are really taking it up the ass this year on nba totals

. The sharps are winning BIG because the moves are accurate and not many games have landed in the middle meaning that even the public following at a full point worse has to be doing nicely. Obviously the degenerate bonus whore middlers (Sick Gamblers) have not been doing that great

(due to the lack of middles) but that is for the good of guys like me who only ever have action on one side of a game and do not like to see these guys steal part our profit.

Looking purely at CRIS opening and closing lines from yesterday I devised a 5 point scale of the performance of books on each game wiith regard to the totals. Although yesterday was really brutal for the books a watered down version pretty sums up their season so far.

1) Books win
2) Books lose change
3) Books lose their wallets
4) Books take it up the ass
5) Books split their anus

Raptors @ Cavaliers, Open 187 Close 187.5 Final 193
Verdict: Books lose their wallets

Wizards @ Pacers, Open 176 Close 174.5 Final 172
Verdict: Bettors split their anus

Sonics @ Nets, Open 184 Close 186 Final 189
Verdict: Books take it up the ass

76ers @ Pistons, Open 177.5 (172.5 after AI news) Close 170 Final 156
Verdict: Books split their anus

Nuggets @ Hawks, Open 195 Close 196 Final 210
Verdict: Books lose their wallets

Suns @ Heat, Open 182.5 Close 182.5 Final 164
Verdict: Books win change

Warriros @ Timberwolves, Open 182.5 Close 186 Final 193
Verdict: Books split their anus

Blazers @ Rockets, Open 171 Close 170.5 Final 184
Verdict: Books win change

Clippers @ Kings, Open 205.5 Close 204 Final 200
Verdict: Books lose their wallets

Knicks @ Lakers, Open 192 Close 192.5 Final 188
Verdict Books win change

Overall
Books win change: 3
Books lose their wallets: 3
Books take it up the ass: 1
Books split their anus: 3

Overall verdict: Books got

up the

Reading the sports forums I am getting the impression that more and more the so called "squares" are realising, (like I have done for a while), that the books are reasonably accurate on sides (because the variance is lower) and the real money is there to be made on totals. For me personally about 75% of my wagers are on totals.

Obviously I have do not know the exact weight of action the books take on sides vs totals. And they of course make nice money with teasers/ buying points/ parlays e.t.c. But even on sides the line moves have been reasonably accurate and the really big line movements (which are not based upon injury info) are virtually exclusively on totals and have been doing extremely well.

All evidence so far suggests that these so called sharp bookmakers at the likes of Cris and Olympic would not know their head from their ass when it comes to putting out an opening number on nba totals. Here in England William Hill which used to have a reasonably large limit on nba totals has taken them down altogether until late in the day when the sharps have ironed the numbers out.

So my message to the sportsbooks is this:

Will the real oddsmakers please stand up

Whilst the sharp guys will always make money off your weak openers, currently they are so far off what actually exists in reality that any steam chaser, square, cat, dog, horse or BEANTOWN JIM chasing price movements even a point off a number is doing well.

Not only that but the degenerates like Sick Gambler need your opening prices to be a little more accurate. How can Sick afford to fly Clevfan up to Montreal every weekend if every game opens 184 closes 181 and then lands 179?

And thirdly the other books NEED your opening prices to be accurate because we all know that virtually all the other books clone the prices of oly and cris. Basically your incompetence ****s up the ALL THE BOOKS

And it is not as if you guys have been doing so great in NFL either

to make up for it.

All the best in the future

Braveheart

 

[Fishhead]

Nice write-up!

Two quick observations.

1. NBA totals have always been an easy target for sharps, hence the lower limits.

2. The so called "middler" is doing absolutely nothing wrong from an ethical stand point. In fact, players that are looking for middles actually aid the good bookmakers.

 

[Halifax]

Guy doesn't strike me as British.

Must be a displaced American/Canadian.

 

[ChuckSims]

The large sportsbooks take in millions in profit. If your book is losing money or crying the blues, GET YOUR MONEY OUT NOW! Note: As far as action, NBA totals are miniscule compared to an NFL game.

 

[WalkofLife]

A sharp Brit!!!

Now, I have seen it all...

Great write-up Braveheart. Now, will somebody please delete this post?

I'm sure dimeplayersonly, Judge and others will agree with me.

Truth is, it has been a GREAT NFL season. I don't understand why people keep on feeding the myth of a rough season. And NBA, well the hoops are just that... the hoops.

As long as there are QT's out there, the big sharp books will always make moeny off of the Bravehearts of the world.

 

[DickyW]

Braveheart
A year older and twice as arrogant huh? BTW have you got that passport yet? You need to meet some other bookmakers and visit some of there shops and you might relize how little you know

 

[wilheim]

Tonight we have a couple of good sized moves already:

Celtic-Sonics - 190 to 192.
Magic-Wizards - 197.5 to 194.5. (Pinnacle)

So lets test your theory with tonight's results.


wil.

 

[Braveheart]

Dicky nice to hear from you as always

I'd appreciate it if you could drop me an email, chuckychalk@hotmail.com

 

[lurkerforages]

middling NBA totals is virtually a waste of time.
Each half point is worth around 5 cents so even a 2 point middle is not that great.

 

[wilheim]

Lurker - Agreed, you need to get at least 3 points of middle to make it worth your while. Most pros have power ratings that they use to make their own total, then look for differences in opening lines to bet into. Naturally if your power ratings are better than the ones used to make the openers by bookies, the number will move your way as the day goes by, creating a decent middle by game time. The obvious, but not so easily done, trick is to bet the right way early, side or total. Of course some bettors with very strong reputations, create their own middles, by letting it be known what side they are on, and waiting for their followers create the middles for them. Nice work if you can get it.


wil.

 

[Woody0]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Tonight we have a couple of good sized moves already:

Celtic-Sonics - 190 to 192.
Magic-Wizards - 197.5 to 194.5. (Pinnacle)

So lets test your theory with tonight's results.


wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Celtics-Sonics: 238

Magic-Wizard: 186

Sic erat demostrandum. But then two swallows don't make a spring.

 

[Braveheart]

"Sic erat demostrandum. But then two swallows don't make a spring."

Sure but it's been like this all year!

 

[wilheim]

I forgot about the post. Now the question is how well the books did on these games, they really never moved much after the early changes, going by the closing numbers, I just now checked. Maybe someone else will add to this discussion.

wil.

 

[Moon88]

braveheart you are bright but the last thing you do is mention it on a public forum keep an eye on the movements by the time you get on it will be 10 off the opening

 

[TheOldBallgame]

The bettors always start out killing the totals. After the first of the year, they take it up the keester. It's worked that way for the last fifteen years. The sharps will make money all season, just not as much later as earlier. But the ones that "follow the steam" will get it in the shorts.

 

[wilheim]

Spurs-Rockest - 170 - 168.5
Hornets-Suns - 182 - 186. (Pinnacle)


Butch - I agree with your post, as the season wears on, these lines tighten up plenty.


wil.

 

[SrMuny]

CRIS
12/10 01:43:44pm #505 New Orleans 1 OPENER
12/10 01:43:44pm #506 Phoenix 182 OPENER
12/10 06:47:14pm #505 New Orleans 1½
12/10 09:02:30pm #505 New Orleans 2
12/11 12:36:48am #506 Phoenix 182½
12/11 04:29:08am #505 New Orleans 2½
12/11 07:51:23am #506 Phoenix 183
12/11 08:09:56am #506 Phoenix 184
12/11 08:43:49am #506 Phoenix 185
12/11 08:45:31am #506 Phoenix 186½
12/11 08:45:51am #506 Phoenix 185½
12/11 09:01:08am #506 Phoenix 186
12/11 12:54:44pm #506 Phoenix 185½
12/11 02:31:15pm #506 Phoenix 186

 

[D2bets]

Pistons-Cavs also moved 179 to 181 (Pinnacle).

That Hornets line was a real steamer and all the halftimes too. Maybe braveheart is to blame (I should say thank) for the mad movement today. Let's hope the oddsmakers made some good numbers today, if ya know what I mean.

 

[wilheim]

I am pretty sure the Cav game opened 181. It may have dipped to 179 and then back up to 181 again. Of course I could be wrong, for the record, lets track the two above.


wil.

 

[SrMuny]

/10 01:43:40pm #501 Detroit 4 OPENER
12/10 01:43:40pm #502 Cleveland 181 OPENER
12/10 03:07:14pm #501 Detroit 4½
12/10 03:16:10pm #502 Cleveland 180
12/10 09:02:38pm #501 Detroit 5
12/10 09:47:41pm #501 Detroit 5½
12/11 05:08:52am #501 Detroit 6
12/11 07:31:05am #501 Detroit 5½
12/11 08:48:52am #502 Cleveland 179½
12/11 08:50:55am #501 Detroit 5
12/11 09:51:49am #502 Cleveland 180
12/11 12:31:12pm #502 Cleveland 179½
12/11 02:09:36pm #502 Cleveland 180
12/11 02:12:52pm #501 Detroit 5½