can the better run defense win most of these bowl games?

[gamblingshark1]

Ive seen this work in the past,,didnt track it last year,,,was too busy winning off the mamba under system,but for day 1

nevada (ranked 79th) in run defense
vs ull +2 (44th) win

utep (68th)
vs utah st -10 (26th) win

utah -3 (54th) win
vs col st (87th)

west mich (37th)
vs air force +2 (35th) win

south alabama -3.5 (88th) loss
vs bowling green (103) result 4-1

 

[Biz]

I have a buddy that relies heavily on net rushing differential in bowl games. Has done very well for years.

 

[gamblingshark1]

12/22

byu +2 (14th)
vs memphis (24th)

 

[gamblingshark1]

byu +2 loss


total 4-2

12/23 north ill (56th)
vs marshall -10 (52nd)

12/23 navy (95th)
vs sd st -3 (42nd)

 

[gamblingshark1]

marshall line before kickoff -8.5 win

sd st line before kickoff -3.5 loss

total 5-3

12/24 central mich (17th) current line +4
vs west kent (113th)

12/24 fresno st (103rd)
vs rice (47th) current line -2.5

 

[GoSooners]

The better rushing defense works well WHEN that team is also a good rushing team themselves. This way they are not only able to stop or slow down their opponent, they are also able to control the tempo of the game. But QB play is so important in today's game. As we saw with SDST last night with their bad QB play that cost them the game...If one team is a higher class team from a better conference, if they have the better run D but not the better rushing offense, the SOS can sometimes make up for it. Example Utah State's win against UTEP. Even then, the DD line was almost too many points to overcome. USU caught a good special teams break in the closing minutes to cover that game. If one team is the better running team, they don't necessarily have to have the better run defense to cover that game IF they are of equal class to their opponent and getting points. This is where the running dogs can be a great play with everything else (except run D) being equal.

 

[gamblingshark1]

The better rushing defense works well WHEN that team is also a good rushing team themselves. This way they are not only able to stop or slow down their opponent, they are also able to control the tempo of the game. But QB play is so important in today's game. As we saw with SDST last night with their bad QB play that cost them the game...If one team is a higher class team from a better conference, if they have the better run D but not the better rushing offense, the SOS can sometimes make up for it. Example Utah State's win against UTEP. Even then, the DD line was almost too many points to overcome. USU caught a good special teams break in the closing minutes to cover that game. If one team is the better running team, they don't necessarily have to have the better run defense to cover that game IF they are of equal class to their opponent and getting points. This is where the running dogs can be a great play with everything else (except run D) being equal.

will look into that first sentence to see if it improves the current 7-3 record .. of course applying that theory would lower the amount of games played im sure

 

[gamblingshark1]

12/24 cent mich +3.5 line at kickoff win

12/24 rice pickem at kickoff win

current record 7-3

 

[gamblingshark1]

12/26 Illinois (120th)
vs louisiana tech (15th) current line up to -6

12/26 rutgers (105th) current line down to +3
vs north carolina (114th)

12/26 north carolina st (75th)
vs central fl (5th) current line up to -2.5

 

[gamblingshark1]

thanx gosooners,,, only betting games where the better run offense is the same team as the better run defense,, the record would be 4-1

 

[dabigdawg3]

gamblingshark1.......where can I find ranked defense for teams?

 

[GoSooners]

thanx gosooners,,, only betting games where the better run offense is the same team as the better run defense,, the record would be 4-1

Your right, the running dogs are 4-1 ATS. And 3-2 SU. If the CMU coach hadn't gone for 2 they might have been 4-1 SU. But bad coaching decisions kills more of these bets than anything in the bowls.

 

[gamblingshark1]

gamblingshark1.......where can I find ranked defense for teams?

google college football run defense rankings 2014

then the first link you can choose from is rushing defense l fbs football statistics-ncaa.com

the second link is rivals.com which might be a little off from the first one as far as stats go

 

[gamblingshark1]

12/26 Illinois (120th run defense) & (111th run offense)
vs louisiana tech (15th RD) current line up to -6 louisiana tech (80th run offense)

12/26 rutgers (105th RD) current line down to +3 rutgers (86th RO)
vs north carolina (114th RD) & (89th RO)


12/26 north carolina st (75th RD) & (35th RO)
vs central fl (5th RD) current line up to -2.5 UCF (102nd RO)

better RD (run defense) only:
record 7-3

better team with both run defense (RD) & run offense (RO)
record 4-1

 

[gamblingshark1]

louisiana tech -7 at kickoff win


rutgers +3.5 at kickoff win

ucf -2 at kickoff loss

better RD only:
record 9-4

better team with both RD & RO:
6-1

 

[gamblingshark1]

12/27 only 1 game qualifies for both best RD & RO

virginia tech -2.5 (41rst RD) (93rd RO)
vs cincinnati (80th RD) (68th RO)

duke (94th RD) (44th RO)
vs ariz st -7 (51st RD) (55th RO)

Miami fl -3.5 (38th RD) (49th RO)
vs south carolina (107th RD) (56th RO)

penn st +2.5 (1rst RD) (117th RO)
vs Boston college (4rth RD) (13th RO)

Nebraska (77th RD) (16th RO)
vs USC -7 (27th RD) (67th RO)

 

[TheComputerGroup]

6-1 ATS record is super impressive........Miami it is!

 

[EVincent]

louisiana tech -7 at kickoff win


rutgers +3.5 at kickoff win

ucf -2 at kickoff loss

better RD only:
record 9-4

better team with both RD & RO:
6-1

any info on previous seasons for this?

 

[Lando21]

Thx for the info

 

[GoSooners]

Virginia Tech has the better run defense and are the running dogs. And even though Nebraska doesn't have the better run defense, I would definitely consider them the running dogs. At +7 it makes them a live dog tonight...