[h=1]Broncos' O could be even better[/h][h=3]The numbers might not match 2013's, but the unit will be more well-rounded[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
There are times when the bottom-line numbers don't indicate just how effective someone is at his job.
A good example of this shows up in Vince Lombardi's career. Lombardi's Green Bay Packers clubs won 10 or more regular-season games five times under his guidance, but his best coaching job probably occurred in one of the seasons that fell short of the double-digit regular-season win total.
In the 1967 campaign, Lombardi had to cajole and push an aging, injured team that was missing two star ball carriers from its glory days (Paul Hornung and Jim Taylor) to achieve greatness, and those efforts paid off via a third straight NFL championship and second straight Super Bowl win.
A similar instance might be on the horizon for Peyton Manning. Manning is coming off arguably the best statistical season of his stellar career, and he might be hard-pressed to guide this offense to match this record-setting pace.
Having noted this, the combination of personnel changes made by the Denver Broncos this offseason and potential adjustments they can make with returning players shows that their offensive platoon this season could be stronger than its dominant predecessor, even if its overall numbers might not quite match up.
[h=3]A powerhouse rushing attack could get even better[/h]
Last season, the Broncos leaned quite heavily on the passing game, but it wasn't due to a lack of rushing prowess. Denver ranked second in the league in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric that gauges how often an offensive blocking wall gives its ball carriers good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to disrupt a rushing attempt).
Their 48.8 percent GBR mark placed them behind only the Philadelphia Eagles (49.6 percent) in this area, and they did this despite losing the services of three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady to a foot injury in Week 2. Clady is on pace to be at full speed by the time the season rolls around and thus could help this group post an even better GBR.
A more important upgrade could come via Montee Ball's advancement into a dominant NFL running back. Ball was a bona fide Heisman Trophy contender in college but managed to gain only 559 yards in his rookie season.
That total belies how well he adjusted to the pro game as time progressed. In Weeks 1-12, Ball averaged a meager 5.1 yards per carry in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking. This is well below the 7.5-yard league median in this statistic and a couple of steps behind the 6.8-yard GBYPA racked up by Denver's leading running back in 2013, Knowshon Moreno.
Ball shifted gears at that point, as his GBYPA shot up to the 8.8-yard level from Weeks 13-17. He also displayed much-improved pass-blocking ability, another aspect that says Ball's comfort level in Year 2 in this offense should make his latter performance level more par for the course. This may give head coach John Fox more confidence to lean on Ball and the Broncos' ground game as a way to help better protect the 38-year-old Manning.
[h=3]Two important passing-game transitions[/h]
Denver saw Eric Decker depart via free agency and brought in Emmanuel Sanders to replace him.
At first glance, Sanders might not look up to the task, as, according to data from ESPN Stats & Information, his 11.0 yards per reception ranked 32nd out of 34 wide receivers with 100 or more targets last season. Decker ranked 11th in that category with 14.8 yards per reception.
Where Sanders did keep up with Decker is in yards per reception on vertical passes (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Sanders' 25.8-yard mark in this area was slightly better than Decker's 25.5-yard rate, indicating that the Broncos might want to think of him as more of the downfield equivalent to Decker rather than as an all-around replacement.
That mindset dovetails well with the Broncos' draft-day approach to this position. Denver drafted Cody Latimer, a wideout whose overall numbers did not match up to the rest of the top pass-catching prospects in this year's draft.
Latimer's biggest metric issue was vertical pass productivity, as his 12.2 vertical YPA (VYPA) ranked next to last out of the eight receivers reviewed in that study, but he does have the physical frame (6-foot-2, 215 pounds) to deal with a lot of hits on shorter throws.
That skill set could help Denver lean less frequently on Sanders for downfield aerials, and it could also help them lessen the workload on Wes Welker. Welker's 2013 season was a textbook case of someone faltering down the stretch, as he went from a superb performance in Weeks 1-8 (50 receptions, 555 yards, nine touchdowns) to a near nonentity in Weeks 10-17 (23 receptions, 223 yards, one touchdown). (Note: Denver was on a bye in Week 9.)
This could be a side effect of 841 career receptions and being on the wrong side of 30 (Welker turned 33 on May 1), so the Broncos might be looking at Latimer as a vehicle through which to keep Welker operating at close to full efficiency for the entire season.
[h=3]Schedule strength and kicking game[/h]
With all of these potential upgrades, it would seem that the Broncos' offense should be on track to post better numbers than last season.
That might be the case were it not for the schedule. Denver had four matchups against the mediocre NFC East defenses in 2013 and trades those in for a quartet of contests against the very strong NFC West defenses. Combine those games with some other fairly tough matchups (Cincinnati, Miami, New York Jets, Buffalo and two games against Kansas City), and it could force this platoon to play a bit more close to the vest than it did last season.
This would potentially put more pressure on the kicking game to convert the less frequent scoring opportunities into points. The upside is that Denver looks to be in great shape in that department: Kicker Matt Prater missed only one field goal last season and was 14-for-15 on kicks of 40 or more yards.
[h=3]Bottom line[/h]
If the Broncos do end up falling short of matching or exceeding their record-setting offensive statistical achievements, it may be seen as a sign that this platoon took a step back. But that viewpoint almost certainly won't accurately reflect the situation.
With the improved ground game, more consistency on short passes and a dominant kicker, this offense should be in a much better position to effectively deal with a brutal schedule and keep Denver in Super Bowl contention once again.
There are times when the bottom-line numbers don't indicate just how effective someone is at his job.
A good example of this shows up in Vince Lombardi's career. Lombardi's Green Bay Packers clubs won 10 or more regular-season games five times under his guidance, but his best coaching job probably occurred in one of the seasons that fell short of the double-digit regular-season win total.
In the 1967 campaign, Lombardi had to cajole and push an aging, injured team that was missing two star ball carriers from its glory days (Paul Hornung and Jim Taylor) to achieve greatness, and those efforts paid off via a third straight NFL championship and second straight Super Bowl win.
A similar instance might be on the horizon for Peyton Manning. Manning is coming off arguably the best statistical season of his stellar career, and he might be hard-pressed to guide this offense to match this record-setting pace.
Having noted this, the combination of personnel changes made by the Denver Broncos this offseason and potential adjustments they can make with returning players shows that their offensive platoon this season could be stronger than its dominant predecessor, even if its overall numbers might not quite match up.
[h=3]A powerhouse rushing attack could get even better[/h]
Last season, the Broncos leaned quite heavily on the passing game, but it wasn't due to a lack of rushing prowess. Denver ranked second in the league in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric that gauges how often an offensive blocking wall gives its ball carriers good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to disrupt a rushing attempt).
Their 48.8 percent GBR mark placed them behind only the Philadelphia Eagles (49.6 percent) in this area, and they did this despite losing the services of three-time Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady to a foot injury in Week 2. Clady is on pace to be at full speed by the time the season rolls around and thus could help this group post an even better GBR.
A more important upgrade could come via Montee Ball's advancement into a dominant NFL running back. Ball was a bona fide Heisman Trophy contender in college but managed to gain only 559 yards in his rookie season.
That total belies how well he adjusted to the pro game as time progressed. In Weeks 1-12, Ball averaged a meager 5.1 yards per carry in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking. This is well below the 7.5-yard league median in this statistic and a couple of steps behind the 6.8-yard GBYPA racked up by Denver's leading running back in 2013, Knowshon Moreno.
Ball shifted gears at that point, as his GBYPA shot up to the 8.8-yard level from Weeks 13-17. He also displayed much-improved pass-blocking ability, another aspect that says Ball's comfort level in Year 2 in this offense should make his latter performance level more par for the course. This may give head coach John Fox more confidence to lean on Ball and the Broncos' ground game as a way to help better protect the 38-year-old Manning.
[h=3]Two important passing-game transitions[/h]
Denver saw Eric Decker depart via free agency and brought in Emmanuel Sanders to replace him.
At first glance, Sanders might not look up to the task, as, according to data from ESPN Stats & Information, his 11.0 yards per reception ranked 32nd out of 34 wide receivers with 100 or more targets last season. Decker ranked 11th in that category with 14.8 yards per reception.
Where Sanders did keep up with Decker is in yards per reception on vertical passes (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Sanders' 25.8-yard mark in this area was slightly better than Decker's 25.5-yard rate, indicating that the Broncos might want to think of him as more of the downfield equivalent to Decker rather than as an all-around replacement.
That mindset dovetails well with the Broncos' draft-day approach to this position. Denver drafted Cody Latimer, a wideout whose overall numbers did not match up to the rest of the top pass-catching prospects in this year's draft.
Latimer's biggest metric issue was vertical pass productivity, as his 12.2 vertical YPA (VYPA) ranked next to last out of the eight receivers reviewed in that study, but he does have the physical frame (6-foot-2, 215 pounds) to deal with a lot of hits on shorter throws.
That skill set could help Denver lean less frequently on Sanders for downfield aerials, and it could also help them lessen the workload on Wes Welker. Welker's 2013 season was a textbook case of someone faltering down the stretch, as he went from a superb performance in Weeks 1-8 (50 receptions, 555 yards, nine touchdowns) to a near nonentity in Weeks 10-17 (23 receptions, 223 yards, one touchdown). (Note: Denver was on a bye in Week 9.)
This could be a side effect of 841 career receptions and being on the wrong side of 30 (Welker turned 33 on May 1), so the Broncos might be looking at Latimer as a vehicle through which to keep Welker operating at close to full efficiency for the entire season.
[h=3]Schedule strength and kicking game[/h]
With all of these potential upgrades, it would seem that the Broncos' offense should be on track to post better numbers than last season.
That might be the case were it not for the schedule. Denver had four matchups against the mediocre NFC East defenses in 2013 and trades those in for a quartet of contests against the very strong NFC West defenses. Combine those games with some other fairly tough matchups (Cincinnati, Miami, New York Jets, Buffalo and two games against Kansas City), and it could force this platoon to play a bit more close to the vest than it did last season.
This would potentially put more pressure on the kicking game to convert the less frequent scoring opportunities into points. The upside is that Denver looks to be in great shape in that department: Kicker Matt Prater missed only one field goal last season and was 14-for-15 on kicks of 40 or more yards.
[h=3]Bottom line[/h]
If the Broncos do end up falling short of matching or exceeding their record-setting offensive statistical achievements, it may be seen as a sign that this platoon took a step back. But that viewpoint almost certainly won't accurately reflect the situation.
With the improved ground game, more consistency on short passes and a dominant kicker, this offense should be in a much better position to effectively deal with a brutal schedule and keep Denver in Super Bowl contention once again.
