Can Bama Cover Tonight?

[cloverleaf]

The line is hovering around 17 this morning.

I'm guessing Bama will try to shut down the run and put the game on the Sooners quarterbacks ability to throw. McCarron needs a productive night against a real good Oklahoma secondary. Both team's will try to run the ball and McCarron can help the cause with a solid passing game.

Knowing Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS against SEC teams since 1992 and with Bama facing a big number, who do you like in this one men?

popcorn-eatinggif

 

[SoLicky]

cloverleaf, ur location is in crimson territory. u tell us how are the team mentality going into tonight's game? from the outside, i think the OU has a slight edge emotionally going into this game. Stoops been saying for years that the sec are really average outside of a couple of teams. tonight i think they will try to hand with the big boys of sec and stay close enough in scores to win at the end. OU players are fired up to represent.

however, the line seem favorable to play OU at 17 for a bowl game that the whole country will be watching...IMO... BoL

 

[McNizzle]

I just cannot put my money on OK. They are not good against the SEC and Bama is quite hungry for redemption from the Iron Bowl. Saban has the boys fired up and Stoops has just added more fuel to the fire by running his mouth about the SEC. It is a lot of points, but I think they put a beat down on the Sooners. My 2 cents.

 

[McNizzle]

Stoops is 0-4 in bowl games against the SEC including a 41-13 ass whipping last year by A&M. I think the Bama defense tells the tale tonight. Tide will roll.

 

[sendacash]

Stoops 0-7 ATS vs the SEC.

 

[StevieRay]

1st half wager?

 

[ofred]

This line and the line last night with Baylor and UCF should be looked at(both about 17). UCF has been able to be able to play up to the competition all year. But Oklahoma has shown they can be dominated as in their Texas and Baylor games. The Sooners seem to deflate if they get too far behind early. Alabama's huge edge I feel is on offense, not on defense. Alabama's D is not as good as in previous years- how could it be after losing so many incredible players to the NFL? But on offense, Alabama is so much better than the Oklahoma offense. I think Knight is the likely choice to play QB for Oklahoma, although Bell might play quite a bit too. Both could struggle on third downs or obvious passing downs. Alabama's offense seems to come to life in these bowl games or other big games. But they do take their sweet time marching down the field and can get conservative. Saban might even take mercy on Oklahoma in the 2nd half and run a very vanilla offense. 17 is a lot to cover. Oklahoma will have to show some early life to cover this spread and they might. I lean Alabama, maybe 1H, but can't really decide.

 

[SoLicky]

McNizzle, i agree with you about putting money on OU tonight. its very hard for me to do so too. i looked at a few more articles just to see where bama state of mind is currently and did not realize that king saban had agreed to an extension of his contract to stay with bama. this might be the bit of motivation that his players might need for tonight's game.

my stance on this game is changed a little bit. i would have to wait until closer to game time to see, however, a lean on bama covering sounds good right now. stoops has been running his mouth about the sec and saban could use this as butt whooping material.

close 1h and blow out 2h...IMO... BoL

 

[SoLicky]

i can see bama running a lot to wear OU def down and the results will be seen in the 2h.

 

[sendacash]

I think Texas gave Bama the blueprint on how to attack Oklahoma. Run smash mouth right at them, then hit them with play action passes and Bama's play action weapons are far superior to Texas'.

 

[McNizzle]

Stoops 0-7 ATS vs the SEC.

My bad, I was referring to bowls

 

[Xmas32]

If I can get OU +17.5 I think I'll pull the trigger on the Sooners. Just a normal sized wager, nothing crazy. I'm not sure if I'll be able to get that number though. Might have to kick over some stones with a couple locals I used to go through. OU only has a slight edge in a couple spots IMO at secondary and kicker. Problem is Bama doesn't really wing it all over the place.

 

[McNizzle]

1st half wager?

-9.5 is tempting.

 

[doubledeuce22]

Oklahoma sucks.. Doubt they will score any legitimate points on offense tonight (exclude garbage time, turnovers, etc).

 

[bukis1]

Al 34-14

 

[ofred]

On defense, look for Alabama to clog the OL of Oklahoma more than penetrate quickly. They will try and stop the Sooner running game, and take their chances with their pass game. If Oklahoma can convert occasionally on 3rd downs, then they could eat up the clock. That's one reason I'm having a hard time pulling the trigger on Bama. Oklahoma just needs to keep the ball and convert 3rd downs a bit, maybe score a little- 17 can be tough to cover then. On the other hand, Oklahoma doesn't do anything really well. And the best thing they do- run the ball- might be taken away from them.

 

[McNizzle]

Al 34-14

Now you see...that is completely realistic right there. I'm sticking to my bama bet. Roll Tide.

 

[cloverleaf]

All indications point to Alabama being focused and ready to play tonight. Saban put the team through a number of hard practices before the christmas break working on conditioning and fundamentals. The players feel they have something to prove after the Auburn loss.

Oklahoma rushes for 236 yards a game, ranking 18th in the country. Alabama struggled to stop Auburn's running game so shutting down the run will be a priority against the Sooners. Take away the run and you takeaway the threat of play action passes which Oklahoma likes to run.

The Sooners have the 14th best total defense in the country, allowing 336 yards a game. Its scoring defense ranks 22nd with 21 points allowed a game. They are particular tough against the run. Oklahoma moved to the 3-4 defense after getting advice from Saban and his staff. Saban always tries to be balanced between the run and pass, and he knows the secrets to defeating his own defense.

Bama's senior class want's to go out a winner and not be remembered as losing two straight games. I believe they will win but by how much is the question.

 

[StevieRay]

-9.5 is tempting.

very

 

[MidNiteGambler]

Don't know how many of you all use this but scoresandodds has good match up stats. Goes without saying in that the power rating pick star is not always right , but its a tool . GL

Thursday at 8:30 PM OKLAHOMA (10-2) AT ALABAMA (11-1) Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Teams Line PF/PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY 259: OKLAHOMA 260: ALABAMA 52.0 -17.0 31.8 / 21.3 38.8 / 11.3 10-2 11-1 7-5-0 7-5-0 7-5-0 5-6-1 235.8 212.0 186.7 236.9 422.5 448.9 138.3 108.3 198.0 166.3 336.3 274.7 Power Rating Line The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated. Power Rating Estimate Edge OKLAHOMA ALABAMA -9 Team Trends and Angles All team trends listed below apply to the current game. OKLAHOMA - Recent ATS Trends Against the spread Over/Under Straight Up Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Description W-L W-L W-L O-U O-U O-U W-L W-L W-L in a bowl game 0-0 1-1 6-10 0-0 0-2 5-11 0-0 1-1 8-8 as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points 0-1 0-1 5-7 0-1 0-1 3-2 0-1 0-1 2-10 in all games 7-5 20-18 130-138 7-5 20-17 93-93 10-2 30-8 196-79 in all lined games 7-5 20-18 130-138 7-5 20-17 93-93 10-2 30-8 192-79 as an underdog 2-1 2-3 29-31 2-1 2-3 17-19 2-1 2-3 19-42 as a neutral field underdog of 14.5 to 17 points 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-1 on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 52 0-0 0-0 2-5 0-0 0-0 4-4 0-0 0-0 3-4 against SEC opponents 0-0 0-1 0-7 0-0 0-1 1-6 0-0 0-1 3-4 when playing on a Thursday 0-1 0-1 2-5 0-1 0-1 1-5 0-1 0-1 3-4 when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest 2-0 5-3 23-24 2-0 4-4 17-22 2-0 5-3 31-16 after playing a conference game 5-3 13-13 90-88 6-2 16-10 59-67 6-2 19-7 124-56 after a bye week 2-1 5-4 22-23 2-1 4-5 14-22 2-1 5-4 29-16 in dome games 0-0 0-0 2-2 0-0 0-0 1-3 0-0 0-0 3-1 in games played on a neutral field 0-1 3-2 20-24 0-1 2-3 16-26 0-1 3-2 25-20 in games played on turf 2-2 4-7 38-55 3-1 6-5 26-30 3-1 8-3 57-35 in January games 0-0 0-1 3-7 0-0 0-1 4-6 0-0 0-1 4-6 in non-conference games 3-0 8-3 43-45 2-1 3-7 28-33 3-0 9-2 69-25 off a win against a conference rival 4-2 9-11 61-62 4-2 12-8 51-48 4-2 13-7 85-39 after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins 3-3 7-12 58-68 3-3 11-8 55-46 4-2 12-7 92-35 when playing against a team with a winning record 4-2 13-10 70-75 4-2 14-9 61-59 4-2 16-7 89-57 ALABAMA - Recent ATS Trends Against the spread Over/Under Straight Up Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Description W-L W-L W-L O-U O-U O-U W-L W-L W-L in a bowl game 0-0 2-0 10-6 0-0 1-1 10-6 0-0 2-0 11-5 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points 3-0 9-2 32-41 0-2 5-5 14-34 3-0 10-1 65-8 in all games 7-5 23-16 135-131 5-6 19-18 96-110 11-1 36-3 197-79 in all lined games 7-5 23-16 135-131 5-6 19-18 96-110 11-1 36-3 191-78 as a favorite 7-5 23-16 99-103 5-6 19-18 68-78 11-1 36-3 171-31 on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 52 0-0 0-0 2-2 0-0 0-0 2-2 0-0 0-0 3-1 against Big 12 conference opponents 0-0 0-0 4-2 0-0 0-0 4-2 0-0 0-0 4-3 when playing on a Thursday 0-0 0-0 5-2 0-0 0-0 3-3 0-0 0-0 6-1 when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest 1-1 4-2 27-18 1-0 3-2 25-17 2-0 5-1 31-14 after playing a conference game 4-3 13-11 89-84 2-4 10-12 64-75 7-0 22-2 124-57 after a bye week 1-1 4-2 26-16 1-0 3-2 22-17 2-0 5-1 30-12 in dome games 0-0 1-1 6-3 0-0 1-1 5-3 0-0 2-0 7-2 in games played on a neutral field 1-0 4-1 17-12 0-1 3-2 17-12 1-0 5-0 19-10 in games played on turf 1-0 5-1 13-8 0-1 4-2 10-6 1-0 6-0 18-3 in January games 0-0 2-0 8-2 0-0 1-1 7-3 0-0 2-0 8-2 in non-conference games 2-2 6-7 44-42 0-4 4-8 28-31 4-0 13-0 76-17 off a loss against a conference rival 0-0 0-2 27-31 0-0 0-1 23-26 0-0 2-0 34-27 when playing against a team with a winning record 3-1 10-7 66-64 2-1 8-8 55-59 3-1 14-3 73-60 Team Statistics