Can Auburn Win?

[cloverleaf]

Full discloser...I'm a Bama guy and Auburn beat us fair and square...even though I think a rematch would be different. NO MATTER...sports moves on especially for the winners and the Tigers put our asses in the Sugar Bowl where we were beaten by a better coached and better motivated Oklahoma team.

Back to Auburn: The best thing I can say about the Tigers is they have been good when they needed to be. The defense has been inconsistent at times, but they always play in the moment if that makes sense. Good on third downs, good in the red zone, good in the fourth quarter. Damn defensive squad has just made critical stops at critical times, and that is a credit to Auburn's success.

The Tigers defense will get a final big time test against the "mighty Noles offense", they ain't scared men.

Who wins and who covers......................:toast:

 

[Dr.Lou]

If FSU plays its worst game and beats their self, yes.

 

[BleedOrange]

Auburn wins by 10+. Look at Florida St.'s schedule. They didn't play anyone except an overrated Clemson team. Their second most difficult game was against Duke, lol. The Seminoles will be in for a rude awakening tomorrow night.

 

[motowner]

Auburn would win 3 or maybe 4 times out of 10. could this be one of them? sure. you need to determine whether the current odds represent true value in their favor.

 

[Scott602]

Comes down to who has the most starts and experience linemen.

 

[coitus_maximus]

Maybe the SEC isn't the powerhouse we thought they were. Maybe Clemson not that bad. They did beat Ohio St, while, Georgia and Bama lost, LSU had trouble putting away Iowa, TX A&M was behind the whole time vs. Duke. It is very tough to take a team with the Run and Pass Def of Auburn vs a scoring team such as FSU. I don't see this one close. FSU by at least 2 TD's. Fisher and Co. will figure out Marshall IMO.

 

[EatTheChalk]

I saw someone compare the hacking on FSU's schedule to be like the hacking on Miami's schedule in 2001. But Miami played a much tougher schedule in 2001 than what FSU has played this year. Miami also had two tightly contested games (@ Boston College and Virginia Tech). FSU really hasn't been tested, and that is what make me think there is more value in Auburn (+310 now?). FSU has been hearing how great they are for a month. FSU is the logical favorite in this game, but from a betting perspective, I see more value in the Auburn side (+310 ML, +10.5, both at Bookmaker). The one thing about FSU's schedule that sticks out is that they did go into Clemson and dominate (FSU was a 3-point favorite). They capitalized on 3 Clemson 1st half turnovers and got the train rolling.

Gun to my head, who is going to win? FSU.

But I think this game is more even than what the odds currently represent. Never under-estimate the value in kids hearing for a month that they're not good enough or on the flip side, another group of kids hearing for a month how great they are. Will likely play AU at +10 or better and throwing a little change on the ML as well. It will be interesting to see which offense comes out making fewer mistakes.

The last team to go untested through the regular season and win the championship may have been Nebraska (1995) when they beat Florida.

Undefeateds since then:

1998 - Tennessee (Florida/Arkansas)
1999 - FSU (Georgia Tech/Clemson)
2000 - Oklahoma (A&M/Oklahoma State/Kansas State)
2001 - Miami (BC/Virginia Tech)
2002 - Ohio State (pretty much half their schedule)
2004 - USC (Stanford/Cal/UCLA)
2005 - Texas (Ohio State/A&M)
2009 - Alabama (Tennessee/Auburn)
2010 - Auburn (about 5 teams on their schedule including Kentucky)

-etc

 

[GoSooners]

Maybe the SEC isn't the powerhouse we thought they were.

Neither is the ACC. They are 5-5 and the SEC is 6-3 in the bowls

 

[EatTheChalk]

SEC is actually 7-2. Only Alabama and Georgia have lost. I don't think that matters, though. In 2005, the PAC 10 had a better record than the Big 12 going into the championship game (thinking that may have been the last time that happened).

-etc

 

[GoSooners]

SEC is actually 7-2. Only Alabama and Georgia have lost. I don't think that matters, though. In 2005, the PAC 10 had a better record than the Big 12 going into the championship game (thinking that may have been the last time that happened).

-etc

Don't forget Texas A&M

 

[GoSooners]

SEC is actually 7-2. Only Alabama and Georgia have lost. I don't think that matters, though. In 2005, the PAC 10 had a better record than the Big 12 going into the championship game (thinking that may have been the last time that happened).

-etc

I thought Texas A&M had lost. But they pulled that one out

 

[GoSooners]

One trend that concerns me is in the modern BCS era the team who has won the BCS title came from a conference that had at least as good or better win or win percentage record as the losing team's conference.

 

[ToothedTeddy]

The defense has been inconsistent at times, but they always play in the moment if that makes sense. Good on third downs, good in the red zone, good in the fourth quarter. Damn defensive squad has just made critical stops at critical times, and that is a credit to Auburn's success.

The Tigers defense will get a final big time test against the "mighty Noles offense", they ain't scared men.

you must not have watched the Mizzou game? that was one of the worst displays of defense on a big stage that I've seen in years.

 

[coitus_maximus]

Here is my thought on this in a nutshell. Everyone is thinking Auburn will play wells since they are in the SEC and FSU has a weak schedule. 10 pts and actually now 10.5 and more. I don't see this line moving under 10.5.
What I have seen is Georgia and Alabama get knocked off, TX A&M had a very tough time vs. Duke in which FSU destroyed in the ACC championship. LSU had a more difficult time with Iowa than it should of and Missouri and OSU were dead even through about 3qtrs. Looking at how the run Def. and the pass Def. are poor for Auburn and they match up poorly with FSU. Auburn is not a very balanced team depending mostly on the run and we thought that Missouri and Alabama were the best in stopping the run were misled as we know in the bowl games. Personally, my thought is that FSU has a true QB although a freshman. He can make the throws, not a converted DB who is not great at throwing the ball yet. Yes, Auburn has been LUCKY. Georgia, Alabama, FSU beat them down by 14. IMO, I am siding with the fav on this one. We all know how the dogs have done in the BCS bowls, but sticking with my guns. Also, in my area, most people believe, if you are the SEC contender, and the dog.....you have to take that dog....esp. double digits. Makes you have to think.

 

[coitus_maximus]

By the way, I meant LSU not FSU. in win by 14pts.

 

[coitus_maximus]

And just another aside, what is the tally of bowl winners in which the spread never came into effect? Thanks.

 

[sendacash]

And just another aside, what is the tally of bowl winners in which the spread never came into effect? Thanks.

I show 30-3(91%) thus far where SU winner = ATS winner with the exceptions being Rutgers, Duke, and Iowa.

 

[Ogata]

I show 30-3(91%) thus far where SU winner = ATS winner with the exceptions being Rutgers, Duke, and Iowa.

wow

 

[buda21711]

I'm all about AU winning...after Ark St won, I'm now poised to take down a monster cash prize in a confidence pool. 120 players, $100 entry..winner take all. In 2nd and 1st place guy took F ST. I have AU. For the love of God....AU BABY!! ONE TIME!

 

[StevieRay]

Weagle Weagle! Finally made it out here late last nite. Damn weather delays. But going to 79 out here. The big concern is AU defense. They have to get pressure and make stops. Gus will call the plays to put points on the board as long as the players execute and no turnovers. AU was clicking in the SEC champ game but then again Mizzo D is no Fla St D.

I was surprised that Mizzo did not throw down field as AU D backs are small and s l o w. a smart Mizzo coach would have tried Matty a few drives as the better passer to move the ball as AU was outmatched against the receivers but Mizzo failed to use the mismatch

if Fla St can get into AU offensive head with a few stops, Winston slice up the AU secondary , it could be a long night for AU.
But let AU hang around until the 4th qtr, well War Damn !