Bush being -130 or -140... I just dont' understand what gives him the edge when it seems the public polls have been dead even or favoring kerry slightly. I am not arguing which candidate should win just looking at this from a gambling perspective and wondering why bush is favored as opposed to a more even line
BTW, I now believe WISCONSIN is going to be THE closest deciding state this year. I think Kerry is pulling away in Ohio and Bush pulling away in Florida, both for good reason.
There's a lot of noise over CO, NV, MI, MN and a few others, but it's just noise IMO.
Start with Kerry's 260 from Gore. He is going to add NH for 4. Ohio is another 20. So that's 284. Bush needs to pickup at least 15. The real shots here are Wisconsin(10), Iowa(7) and New Mexico(5). The only way to reach 15 from that group is by Bush taking Wisconsin. If he does take Wisconsin, then he'd need either Iowa or New Mexico, the latter of whcih would create the dreaded 269-269 scenario opening the can of beans for a faithless elector and on and on. It could happen.
But again, I think Bush MUST HAVE WISCONSIN. The latest Zogby poll has Kerry 50-46 in WI.
There's a lot of noise over CO, NV, MI, MN and a few others, but it's just noise IMO.
Start with Kerry's 260 from Gore. He is going to add NH for 4. Ohio is another 20. So that's 284. Bush needs to pickup at least 15. The real shots here are Wisconsin(10), Iowa(7) and New Mexico(5). The only way to reach 15 from that group is by Bush taking Wisconsin. If he does take Wisconsin, then he'd need either Iowa or New Mexico, the latter of whcih would create the dreaded 269-269 scenario opening the can of beans for a faithless elector and on and on. It could happen.
But again, I think Bush MUST HAVE WISCONSIN. The latest Zogby poll has Kerry 50-46 in WI.
The electorial college favors Bush; Kerry right now has 149 solid EVs. He has 58 leaning his way (counting Michigan, Hawaii, and NJ which are still in play for Bush however)...that gives Kerry 207. He needs to get 63 EVs from the undecideds.
Bush has 191 solid EVs and 36 leaning for a total of 227 EVs (needs 43 EVs):
There's 8 states out there that are toss-ups:
Florida (27), Iowa (7), Minny (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (21), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10).
If Bush takes Florida, Kerry willl need to just about run the table to win 270.
I also got this from National Review online:
"Just heard from a source close to the campaign, tuned in to the conversations at the highest levels.
According to the Bushies, the last few days have seen a huge burst of momentum in their numbers.
They think Bush is ahead by a few points nationally. They expect the next round of tracking polls to show a bit of a bump.
The internal polls show a significant lead in Florida (outside margin of error) and Arkansas is out of play, with a Bill Clinton visit or without. As for most of the other big ones - Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, internal polls show all too close to call.
Michigan is seriously looking like a pickup - Bush and Cheney could be there four times in the last four days.
An exit poll of those who have already voted show Bush ahead by 15 points! [UPDATE: This is ahead 15 points overall, nationwide, not just in Michigan. Obviously, those who have already voted are only a small, small segment of the electorate at large, so one should not read too much into this number. But it is interesting.]
Undecided voters appear to be breaking Bush’s way - some days he has a slight lead, other days it’s right around 50-50. (Note this would be considerably better than the 1/3 calculated that Bush needs here.
Finally, the ammo dump story appears to have left the Kerry campaign deep in al-Qaqaa.
Tommy Franks is going to enter this story and rip Kerry and the New York Times a new one. The Kerry folks are acting like they realized they have botched this story, and want to shift back to domestic topics. Lockhart, Bill Richardson on Imus — when asked about al-QaQaa, they dodge the question and quickly try to bring up other issues.
The campaign is going to avoid the Russian angle and go with the straightforward, “As the facts mount in this story, American people have a choice between believing Kerry-NYTimes-CBS or believing Bush and the Troops.”
Bush has 191 solid EVs and 36 leaning for a total of 227 EVs (needs 43 EVs):
There's 8 states out there that are toss-ups:
Florida (27), Iowa (7), Minny (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (21), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10).
If Bush takes Florida, Kerry willl need to just about run the table to win 270.
I also got this from National Review online:
"Just heard from a source close to the campaign, tuned in to the conversations at the highest levels.
According to the Bushies, the last few days have seen a huge burst of momentum in their numbers.
They think Bush is ahead by a few points nationally. They expect the next round of tracking polls to show a bit of a bump.
The internal polls show a significant lead in Florida (outside margin of error) and Arkansas is out of play, with a Bill Clinton visit or without. As for most of the other big ones - Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, internal polls show all too close to call.
Michigan is seriously looking like a pickup - Bush and Cheney could be there four times in the last four days.
An exit poll of those who have already voted show Bush ahead by 15 points! [UPDATE: This is ahead 15 points overall, nationwide, not just in Michigan. Obviously, those who have already voted are only a small, small segment of the electorate at large, so one should not read too much into this number. But it is interesting.]
Undecided voters appear to be breaking Bush’s way - some days he has a slight lead, other days it’s right around 50-50. (Note this would be considerably better than the 1/3 calculated that Bush needs here.
Finally, the ammo dump story appears to have left the Kerry campaign deep in al-Qaqaa.
Tommy Franks is going to enter this story and rip Kerry and the New York Times a new one. The Kerry folks are acting like they realized they have botched this story, and want to shift back to domestic topics. Lockhart, Bill Richardson on Imus — when asked about al-QaQaa, they dodge the question and quickly try to bring up other issues.
The campaign is going to avoid the Russian angle and go with the straightforward, “As the facts mount in this story, American people have a choice between believing Kerry-NYTimes-CBS or believing Bush and the Troops.”
Shotgun, that's not a bad list, but at the very least you need to add Colorado to the toss-up pile. It is much more in play then PA is.
But even without that, let's examine your list from which Kerry needs 63. PA and OH is 41 right there. Minny and NH is another 14. Then he needs either Wisconsin OR NM/IA. That's why I believe it all comes down to Wisconsin. Ohio is going Kerry. PA, MN and NH are in Kerry's column while Bush should get FL. He would most likely win at least 1 of NM or IA. But he'd still need Wisconsin.
The winner of Wisconsin will be the next President.
But even without that, let's examine your list from which Kerry needs 63. PA and OH is 41 right there. Minny and NH is another 14. Then he needs either Wisconsin OR NM/IA. That's why I believe it all comes down to Wisconsin. Ohio is going Kerry. PA, MN and NH are in Kerry's column while Bush should get FL. He would most likely win at least 1 of NM or IA. But he'd still need Wisconsin.
The winner of Wisconsin will be the next President.
D2,
I know you'll think I'm a homer but I'm really starting to believe that there is not a snowballs chance in hell, Kerry wins Minnesota.
1. No senate race this year.
2. The big race in state has Kennedy (R) comfortably over Wetterling (D)
3. The trend is going republican in this state - partially because of the Wellstone rally.
4. Senator Mark Dayton (D) leaves his Washington DC office a couple weeks ago - not playing well here. He may have some internal numbers in Minnesota and is acting like a baby.
5. Jesse who many can't stand - endorsed his vet buddy Kerry ( backlash )
6. People just don't like to be thought of as fools. That get the turnout.
No way independent and new registered voters break 2 to 1 for the challenger ( Kerry ) in this election, in any state, when it comes to voting for president. That is the big myth getting spread around. It may partially hold true when a person votes between two people who the voter has basically never heard of and they vote for a change in a congressional race. People know Bush.
Other reasons as well, but those stick out at the moment.
I know you'll think I'm a homer but I'm really starting to believe that there is not a snowballs chance in hell, Kerry wins Minnesota.
1. No senate race this year.
2. The big race in state has Kennedy (R) comfortably over Wetterling (D)
3. The trend is going republican in this state - partially because of the Wellstone rally.
4. Senator Mark Dayton (D) leaves his Washington DC office a couple weeks ago - not playing well here. He may have some internal numbers in Minnesota and is acting like a baby.
5. Jesse who many can't stand - endorsed his vet buddy Kerry ( backlash )
6. People just don't like to be thought of as fools. That get the turnout.
No way independent and new registered voters break 2 to 1 for the challenger ( Kerry ) in this election, in any state, when it comes to voting for president. That is the big myth getting spread around. It may partially hold true when a person votes between two people who the voter has basically never heard of and they vote for a change in a congressional race. People know Bush.
Other reasons as well, but those stick out at the moment.
Bush will win because Kerry isn't stong enough to lead. It doesn't matter whether you like Bush or not. The core issue is whether you think Kerry can lead this country. I don't think the country is sold on Kerry. He is grasping at straws !!!! Who is the real Kerry. I guess it depends on what day and what time.
Edwards is from NC and the people there are overwelming Bush....They will carry the state by 12-15% points...With Bush you see what you get....Get ready to see 4 more years!!
Lets see who is on the board Wednesday morning....I bet you won't smell a flaming liberal!!:kicking:
Edwards is from NC and the people there are overwelming Bush....They will carry the state by 12-15% points...With Bush you see what you get....Get ready to see 4 more years!!
Lets see who is on the board Wednesday morning....I bet you won't smell a flaming liberal!!:kicking:
Shotgun, it's the Halliburton story in addition to the new proof that the explosives went missing after the invasion, not before as Bush/Cheyney wanted to speculate. Plus, I don't think the terror tape helps. I think it's becoming a perfect storm against Bush. He is in SERIOUS trouble. Don't take -110. Bush will be the clear dog by Monday. Watch.
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has dropped from -170 on 10/25
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has dropped from -170 on 10/25
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