Absolutely, as 1st hit, opening moves, or head-to-head sharp football game showdowns, are often as much a p!ssing contest, as they are critical number calls or game calls.
Bad numbers don't grab players at nearly the clip that their mythological status is feared(except Hoops & Foot's key #s).
Followers follow straight thru the stop signs, with little fear of the occasional fines accumulated by tailgating..as being on the right side far outweighs the added handicap.
Now, stiffs at the bad number, especially when the extra tax makes a difference on the play's faint hope of a winning outcome..is insult to injury!
In conclusion, just pick the ATS winner, whether it be clone number, adjusted number, or even bad number..there is still a side waiting to be mined in there.
[This message was edited by Horseshoe on April 17, 2004 at 04:49 AM.]
Bad numbers don't grab players at nearly the clip that their mythological status is feared(except Hoops & Foot's key #s).
Followers follow straight thru the stop signs, with little fear of the occasional fines accumulated by tailgating..as being on the right side far outweighs the added handicap.
Now, stiffs at the bad number, especially when the extra tax makes a difference on the play's faint hope of a winning outcome..is insult to injury!
In conclusion, just pick the ATS winner, whether it be clone number, adjusted number, or even bad number..there is still a side waiting to be mined in there.
[This message was edited by Horseshoe on April 17, 2004 at 04:49 AM.]
Horseshoe, I disagree. Playing "Bad numbers" can grab players enough to change winners to losers and vice versa. It doesn't have to make a difference that often. How about 1 in every 25 times -- that's enough. A 55 out 100 player is a nice winner, but if 4 of those wins are turned to losses by playing that mythological bad number then he's only 51 out of 100 -- and now a loser with the vig. Every little bit matters in the long run.
Using football and basketball ONLY as typical widely bet barometers, from my own experience I would make an estimated guess for me personally that I would hit somewhere around 52-53% ...........and by shopping with a minimum of 7-8 books increase that to around 57%.
So laying the normal -110 vig, I would venture to say that I would probably eek out a very small profit using vanilla lines in what would be the ultimate grind.
So laying the normal -110 vig, I would venture to say that I would probably eek out a very small profit using vanilla lines in what would be the ultimate grind.
It's more important to know *when* to bet rather than where to bet. A goood player can fund one book that posts early lines and beat the pants off your average guy sifting through 7 or 8 outs. Good players know how to get on good numbers before they move against them and wait to bet good numbers that are eventually going to move for them. Getting that extra half point that you might get by shopping is nice, but it is less important that having the information to give an educated guess on how the lines are going to move.
I agree in theory D2, but as Nick points out, the best cappers and sharps have the uncanny knack for knowing what needs to be hit out the gates on Sunday and Monday(or overnight), and what is best left for later(public & follower built numbers awaiting the buyback).
If everyone insisted on getting the absolute best number to every affair..they wouldn't get involved too often?
In a Utopian world, sure the best numbers are the difference makers in a few critical percentages, but in the brutal reality, I think it depends more on having a knack where there is still room to play after the move.
Most of the world plays the leftovers, most of the world can't reach early numbers in the LV streets..
But are most BMs made by people losing games that land on the number or by the Hook?..or are the vast majority beaten by picking losing sides(in games that land off the number?)
I think more of the public would do much better, if only they most importantly did a better job of knowing "a live dog" when they see one?
Baseball is a value game, as is hockey, but football and hoops primarily are pick the SU winner affairs..with the ever tricky question of "which dogs outright?", & critical number/tight line affairs(buys or pass.)
I agree with all of you, shop 'til you drop, but some may be amazed at how many sharper players, play at the bad numbers, and survive or thrive despite being late to the party..then again some of these are really nice parties, that they've found invitations to.
If everyone insisted on getting the absolute best number to every affair..they wouldn't get involved too often?
In a Utopian world, sure the best numbers are the difference makers in a few critical percentages, but in the brutal reality, I think it depends more on having a knack where there is still room to play after the move.
Most of the world plays the leftovers, most of the world can't reach early numbers in the LV streets..
But are most BMs made by people losing games that land on the number or by the Hook?..or are the vast majority beaten by picking losing sides(in games that land off the number?)
I think more of the public would do much better, if only they most importantly did a better job of knowing "a live dog" when they see one?
Baseball is a value game, as is hockey, but football and hoops primarily are pick the SU winner affairs..with the ever tricky question of "which dogs outright?", & critical number/tight line affairs(buys or pass.)
I agree with all of you, shop 'til you drop, but some may be amazed at how many sharper players, play at the bad numbers, and survive or thrive despite being late to the party..then again some of these are really nice parties, that they've found invitations to.
