Can 60% winning of games make you money?

PixWinns · Nov 14, 2005

Can 60% winning of games make you money?

Many times I read that 60% winning of games make you money. Is this true? I really don't think so, because if you bet a heavy favorite and lose this would bring your winnings way down.

Can I ask someone to give me a feedback on my thinking? Right or wrong.

Thanks in advance.

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In no way does lack of knowledge indicate lack of intelligence.
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SportSavant · Nov 14, 2005

60% winning while laying -110 can make you rich....

this is what most people are referring too....

fo course if you are playing all types of VIG, & average more than -110....

then the percentage you need increases......

Perhaps someone could post the chart that is found in WONG's book.

wantitall4moi · Nov 14, 2005

Percentages mean absolutely nothing to most people. the ONLY time a win percentage matters is if you are betting spreads and betting the same amount each and every play. Then , no 60% will not make you rich, you will make a profit, but in no way will you get rich.

This argument has been done to death.

Worry about making a profit, all the other stuff will not be an issue.

SportSavant · Nov 14, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
Percentages mean absolutely nothing to most people. the ONLY time a win percentage matters is if you are betting spreads and betting the same amount each and every play. Then , no 60% will not make you rich, you will make a profit, but in no way will you get rich.

This argument has been done to death.

Worry about making a profit, all the other stuff will not be an issue.

hitting 60% while laying -110 will not make you rich?

can you please explain? if you systematically increase your bet size as your bankroll grows, hitting 60% will definatly make you rich if you lay no more than -110....

(example: start with 10, 000$ bankroll playing 100$ a game.... when bankroll increases to 12000$ increase bet size to 120$.... & so on & so forth.... after a while, with enough plays, hitting 60% will make you a very very rich man)

unless I am missing something////

Doug · Nov 14, 2005

60% against -110 will make you wealthy if you have a lot of plays and increase bets as you win.

wantitall4moi · Nov 14, 2005

If you make 2000 bets a year and you hit 60% that means your record will be 1200-800.

If you bet a nickle a game (starting with a 50K bankroll) And you have a perfect 60% split and you raise you bet size in 25% increments (meaning you go to 750 per side at 75 bankroll)you will make around 220K I think. If you didn't raise your bet size at all you would make 160K.

The thing is there isn't anyway to get 2000 bets on spread plays a year. But I guess if you could, you might be able to make decent money. I am note sure 220K is getting rich, but I guess to some it would be.

But that is under perfect conditions. That 50K bankroll at 500 per bet doesn't look so great if you start out 3-15 in your plays and you are down 7k or so. Then you start gripping.

Good in theory, but bottomline is no one hits 60% over that many bets.

oldmanTED · Nov 14, 2005

Hitting 60% while using proper money management techniques can provide a very handsome income depending on the size of the starting bankroll and wager. That being said, it is all but impossible to hit 60% over the long haul. While any particular year or few years the 60% mark can be reached and even exceeded, those years are rare. If a player can maintain a percentage of 54% and above consistently, year after year, allowing their wagers and bankrolls to grow, they can make a very nice living from the return on investment.

PixWinns · Nov 14, 2005

Thank you for the feedbacks. Always appreciated.

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In no way does lack of knowledge indicate lack of intelligence.
.

Doug · Nov 14, 2005

Fezzik on 60 %

http://www.bet2gamble.com/Forums/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=37182&Main=36711

Journeyman · Nov 14, 2005

You gotta get to a dime a game ...100k bankroll....60% than is a substancial additional income, even 55% at a dime per pop is great, which most take in a heart beat.

just get to 100k to play with , have a second solid income and stick with it...

Journeyman · Nov 14, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
If you make 2000 bets a year and you hit 60% that means your record will be 1200-800.

even at 55% , which would be 1100-900 or plus 110 units (more at reduced juice) X's 1,000 a game, thats over 100k a year.

:money:

D2bets · Nov 14, 2005

If you KNOW for a lfact that you will hit 60% over, let's say, 1000 plays in 1 year and you start with a 100K bankroll then with correct bet sizing you should be able to become a millionaire in that year with very little risk of ruin. Just an estimate, haven't run the numbers, but I think so.

Woody0 · Nov 14, 2005

Hitting exactly 60% using constant size bets at a constant -150 is exactly breakeven.

If the average vig is -150 then that also is a breakeven situation.

wantitall4moi · Nov 14, 2005

D2bets said:
If you KNOW for a lfact that you will hit 60% over, let's say, 1000 plays in 1 year and you start with a 100K bankroll then with correct bet sizing you should be able to become a millionaire in that year with very little risk of ruin. Just an estimate, haven't run the numbers, but I think so.

That is why it is THEORY. If you KNEW then yes, it would be very easy. You would simply bet ALL your bankroll EVERY session. Meaning if you had 100K and KNEW you would hit 60%, then you could bet 10K per game if you liked 10 games. If you liked 20, then you would bet 5K per game. After that session you would have 154545.45(60% no matter how many games @ -110). Then the NEXT session the same thing. You like 10 games you bet 15454 per game and so on. After about 8-9 weeks you would be a millionaire, because you would triple your bankroll every 3 weeks or so.

The thing is REALITY doesn't work that way. If someone DOES hit 60% for any extended period of time they more or less "luck" into it. Not many guys are putting 100% of their bakrolls in action on opininated plays. That is as long as they actually expect to stay liquid that is.

I will take enough leads and bet enough games to have 40-50% of my bankroll in action during the summer in baseball. But I also know that I have enough left to buy back 100% so in essense even if I don't get ANY moves, I am basically risking 1.5-3% of it (vig on a 6-8 cent line). But I almost NEVER have zero games I get the best of. So I usually can expect to get a 1-2% FAVORABLE return on 100% of my bankroll.

THAT is the secret... NOT LOSING, not how much you win when you get lucky enough to win.

I would rather NEVER lose and collect $100-$500 per game I bet than bet a lot of money and HOPE and PRAY I hit 55%, because I am still LOSING 45% of those games.

max1234 · Nov 14, 2005

Moi,

We've finally identified why you don't understand bookmaking... you're scared to ever lose. What you called bookmaking as you did it was merely scalping which is what you're doing now. But to each his own and thanks for explaining why you don't understand a bookmaker's mentality.

Journeyman · Nov 14, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
I would rather NEVER lose and collect $100-$500 per game I bet than bet a lot of money and HOPE and PRAY I hit 55%, because I am still LOSING 45% of those games.

Scalping and gambling two different things.

wantitall4moi · Nov 14, 2005

Journeyman said:
Scalping and gambling two different things.

Yea I know one is actually PROFITABLE

Max ^^^^^^^ I will take profits over bragging right any day.

People can brag and clap hands when they go 7-3 one weekend, but they are probably 50-60 for the season, and have been broke 3-4 times. It is the forum mentality. Taking score after every game, and living and dying on every play. I prefer to actually make money at it.

CalState · Nov 14, 2005

Klowinns, here is a simple table which shows the breakeven win % for specific Moneyline odds. Anything over these percentages would result in a profit, anything less and you would be in the red (percentages are rounded to the nearest hundredth of a percent):

-300 = 75.00%
-250 = 71.43%
-200 = 66.67%
-180 = 64.29%
-160 = 61.54%
-150 = 60.00%
-140 = 58.33%
-130 = 56.52%
-120 = 54.55%
-110 = 52.38%
-105 = 51.22%
+100 = 50.00%
+110 = 47.62%

To figure +120 (and other dogs), you would just look at -120 on the chart and subtract that percentage from 100%, so you would get 100-54.55 = 45.45%.

PanchoSanza · Nov 14, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
Yea I know one is actually PROFITABLE

Max ^^^^^^^ I will take profits over bragging right any day.

People can brag and clap hands when they go 7-3 one weekend, but they are probably 50-60 for the season, and have been broke 3-4 times. It is the forum mentality. Taking score after every game, and living and dying on every play. I prefer to actually make money at it.

Translation, I can't pick winners so I pick pennies off the ground instead.:howdy:

PixWinns · Nov 14, 2005

CalState said:
Klowinns, here is a simple table which shows the breakeven win % for specific Moneyline odds. Anything over these percentages would result in a profit, anything less and you would be in the red (percentages are rounded to the nearest hundredth of a percent):

-300 = 75.00%
-250 = 71.43%
-200 = 66.67%
-180 = 64.29%
-160 = 61.54%
-150 = 60.00%
-140 = 58.33%
-130 = 56.52%
-120 = 54.55%
-110 = 52.38%
-105 = 51.22%
+100 = 50.00%
+110 = 47.62%

To figure +120 (and other dogs), you would just look at -120 on the chart and subtract that percentage from 100%, so you would get 100-54.55 = 45.45%.