Alright, sharps. I made a stupid bet for 3K on the Lakers to win a measley 500. Now, I'm figuring how to hedge my way out of a big loss. I am normally a $200 bettor, so this was crazy for me to do. I won over 3 grand in Vegas a month ago, so I said WTF? I really bought into the Lakers sweeping. I broke every rule that I have ever set for myself. Now, I'm worried, and need some advice. What do you guys think the series line will be if the Lakers win game 2? Or if the Pistons win game 2? What about putting a little on the Pistons for game 2 ML for some insurance?
I HAVEN'T SAT HERE AND FIGURED OUT YOUR EXACT SCENARIO, BUT I WOULD THROW A BALLPARK FIGURE AT YOU AND SAY THAT THE BEST YOU CAN PROBABLY DO NOW IS GUARANTEE YOURSELF TO LOSE ONLY 2K, INSTEAD OF 3K.. NOW IS IT WORTH IT? NO IMO.. THE LAKERS STILL HAVE TO LOSE ANOTHER 3 GAMES. TO SAVE 1K, IS NOT REALLY WORTH IT. BECAUSE IF THEY DO COME BACK, INSTEAD OF MAKING 500, YOU WILL LOSE ROUGHLY 2K AND WILL FELL SICK TO THE STOMACH.
KEEP YOUR BET ILLINI IS THE BEST ADVICE I CAN GIVE YOU.. BUT I AM SURE SOMEONE ELSE CAN MAYBE HELP YOU WITH BETTER ADVICE, SEEING YOU ASKED FOR A SHARPIE AND I AM NOT ONE. .
KEEP YOUR BET ILLINI IS THE BEST ADVICE I CAN GIVE YOU.. BUT I AM SURE SOMEONE ELSE CAN MAYBE HELP YOU WITH BETTER ADVICE, SEEING YOU ASKED FOR A SHARPIE AND I AM NOT ONE. .
If you wanted you could cut and run and take a $500 loss either way right now by betting $1000 on Detroit series +250
3000/500 on -600 and
1000/2500 on +250
either way you would lose 500 bucks. Might be easier to chalk up losing 2.5 units as opposed to 15 units.
If you go the ML route then you really need to commit to that because if you take Det in Game 2 and they lose then you've lost that but are still very much still on the line in the series.
3000/500 on -600 and
1000/2500 on +250
either way you would lose 500 bucks. Might be easier to chalk up losing 2.5 units as opposed to 15 units.
If you go the ML route then you really need to commit to that because if you take Det in Game 2 and they lose then you've lost that but are still very much still on the line in the series.
assuming the line in the series is now -300/+250 according to Dbets. Then that would mean that the Lakers still have about a 67% chance of winning the series according to the oddsmakers...
With those odds, it would seem like you are still a 2-1 favorite to win the series, so why just guarantee yourself a loss of 500 no matter what. You will feel sick to the stomach if the Lakers take over the series and win in 5..
With those odds, it would seem like you are still a 2-1 favorite to win the series, so why just guarantee yourself a loss of 500 no matter what. You will feel sick to the stomach if the Lakers take over the series and win in 5..
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sick gambler:
assuming the line in the series is now -300/+250 according to Dbets. Then that would mean that the Lakers still have about a 67% chance of winning the series according to the oddsmakers...
With those odds, it would seem like you are still a 2-1 favorite to win the series, so why just guarantee yourself a loss of 500 no matter what. You will feel sick to the stomach if the Lakers take over the series and win in 5..<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Yeah but he'd feel downright ill if he didn't and he lost 15 units. The truth of the matter is he should probably hedge down to an amount at which he's comfortable losing, but no more.
assuming the line in the series is now -300/+250 according to Dbets. Then that would mean that the Lakers still have about a 67% chance of winning the series according to the oddsmakers...
With those odds, it would seem like you are still a 2-1 favorite to win the series, so why just guarantee yourself a loss of 500 no matter what. You will feel sick to the stomach if the Lakers take over the series and win in 5..<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Yeah but he'd feel downright ill if he didn't and he lost 15 units. The truth of the matter is he should probably hedge down to an amount at which he's comfortable losing, but no more.
I guess you were not much fun to be around in the 4th quarter last night. Seeing how the bet is so much larger than normal and no easy way out, keep it. If the lakers win $500 not so easy bucks. If they lose work 1 extra day a week until your bank roll is rebuilt. Early on I paid dearly for foolish bets and worked my ass off to get a bankroll. GL2U (even though I need Det).
Minimizing the damage.
Hedging a good bet is often a mistake, but getting out of a really bad one is usually well advised.
Almost every true sharp out there believes the Pistons have more than a 25% chance to win this thing.
You are in a situation where you can make positive expectation bets, AND reduce your risk.
Start by laying off some of your exposure by betting $400-500 on Detroit +250, to eliminate a total disaster (Laker game 2 loss).
Then after the Lakers win game 2, start looking to shop like crazy and bet $500-$1000 on games 3,4,5 on Pistons at places like SIA, etc ATS and ML on their home games. You will get good value vs. already inflated market lines. It will reduce your risk and AND have + expectation.
When you get out of this, learn your lesson and stop making any big bets like this. If you must make big bets, run it by people who know what they are doing. (On this forum, D2Bets, Omni Frog, and many others will always give you good advice)
Fezzik (Fezziksplace.com).
Hedging a good bet is often a mistake, but getting out of a really bad one is usually well advised.
Almost every true sharp out there believes the Pistons have more than a 25% chance to win this thing.
You are in a situation where you can make positive expectation bets, AND reduce your risk.
Start by laying off some of your exposure by betting $400-500 on Detroit +250, to eliminate a total disaster (Laker game 2 loss).
Then after the Lakers win game 2, start looking to shop like crazy and bet $500-$1000 on games 3,4,5 on Pistons at places like SIA, etc ATS and ML on their home games. You will get good value vs. already inflated market lines. It will reduce your risk and AND have + expectation.
When you get out of this, learn your lesson and stop making any big bets like this. If you must make big bets, run it by people who know what they are doing. (On this forum, D2Bets, Omni Frog, and many others will always give you good advice)
Fezzik (Fezziksplace.com).
