I don't see a single person in this forum who likes Cal. With the line having moved already to 27.5, the value here seems to me to now be on the dog. Yes, K St and Snyder like to run it up, but I don't see that happening here. Jeff Tedford is one of the bright young coaching minds in the game, and he will exploit the few defensive holes K St has. Reports out of manhattan also say that the Cats will not be at full strength for this game, as their are nicks at DL, FB, & TE. Cal has imported lots of speed into their program and will force Roberson to beat them through the air, which he hasn't to date proven capable of. In Makonnen & McArthur, Cal has some weapons at their disposal, not to mention a stud at RB in Echemandu, who will make a splash on Saturday. If this were being played on campus, this would not be the same. However, despite a pro- K-St crowd, Arrowhead will not provide the advantage that truly playing in their home stadium would. In conclusion, this is mostly a play on Tedford, as I believe he will have his team prepared to at least compete. I think if Cal can get to 10 or even 13, they get the cover. With so much pre-season hype for K State and such low expectations for Cal, this number has been driven a bit to high. Even through their lean years, Cal is 15-6-1 ATS in the last 5 years when getting DD points. Cal +27.5 it is!
You make some good points:
-Tedford is a good coach who will bring out a few tricks plays(But Boller is gone and with him perhaps starting in Baltimore we see what a huge loss that is)
-Echemandu by all accounts is a load and a budding star at running back(But he is coming off an injury and can he contribute more than Igber?)
-Cal has some good WR's but the speed is mostly with their true freshmen.
Cal lost 15 starters and has only 2 returning starters on defense, both sophomores. Cal lost 2 first round draft choices, Miami can survive losing multiple #1 draft choices, Cal can't. Tedford recruited well but their overall team talent is way down. They may well finish last in the Pac 10, yes, after Arizona and its bizarre decision to keep Mackovic. Tedford made strides last year but they will take a step back this year.
They are playing a Kansas State team that Snyder may feel is his best and last chance for a national championship. Snyder wants to set the quest off with a bang on National TV, he has never been shy about running it up and there is no reason to believe he won't try to do so here.
The over may be the better bet when the number gets posted as Cal should be able to score and a back door cover is a possibilty, but Cal's DE's are undersized and a huge drop from the players they had last year. New, undersized and average DE's and 4 new linebackers against Kansas States' option is a scary prospect. Robertson and Sproles are very very good.
Play action should also work for Kansas State as there are big question marks in Cal's secondary
Breaking in a new Quarterback on the road(
Kansas State will have a huge home field advantage maybe not as big as in Manhatten but it will be a big advantage period) especially against a very good Kansas State defense will mean turnovers and likely a muted performance by Cal's Qb be it Roberston or Rodgers.
Kansas State has some injuries but lots of returning talent with studs like Marvin Simmons the LB from Long Beach Poly and maybe the best recruit on the West Coast a few years ago only a reserve.
Kansas State has questionable kicking, but that will likely be made up for by a least one special teams touchdown.
Can the new Cal QB exploit Terrence Newman's replacement at corner? But Kansas state has some options there including some JC All Americans including one who had 12 career interceptions.
Pac 10 teams don't usually play the option that well, and especially not with the inexperience Cal has on defense, and definitely not against a Heisman Trophy candidate QB and an ultra quick TB.
There will definitely be better underdogs. I think the number is too low and is based on the fact Cal played well last year and is in the second year under Tedford; The assumption that they will be better is not unreasonable especially since Cal had a very good recruiting class. However, their graduation losses are too severe. So 27.5 is a lot but if you said put the the worst Pac 10 on the road against may be the second best Big 12 team on the road a 27.5 point line would not be unreasonable. I think the line should be 35 and I still would only look to K State.
-Tedford is a good coach who will bring out a few tricks plays(But Boller is gone and with him perhaps starting in Baltimore we see what a huge loss that is)
-Echemandu by all accounts is a load and a budding star at running back(But he is coming off an injury and can he contribute more than Igber?)
-Cal has some good WR's but the speed is mostly with their true freshmen.
Cal lost 15 starters and has only 2 returning starters on defense, both sophomores. Cal lost 2 first round draft choices, Miami can survive losing multiple #1 draft choices, Cal can't. Tedford recruited well but their overall team talent is way down. They may well finish last in the Pac 10, yes, after Arizona and its bizarre decision to keep Mackovic. Tedford made strides last year but they will take a step back this year.
They are playing a Kansas State team that Snyder may feel is his best and last chance for a national championship. Snyder wants to set the quest off with a bang on National TV, he has never been shy about running it up and there is no reason to believe he won't try to do so here.
The over may be the better bet when the number gets posted as Cal should be able to score and a back door cover is a possibilty, but Cal's DE's are undersized and a huge drop from the players they had last year. New, undersized and average DE's and 4 new linebackers against Kansas States' option is a scary prospect. Robertson and Sproles are very very good.
Play action should also work for Kansas State as there are big question marks in Cal's secondary
Breaking in a new Quarterback on the road(
Kansas State will have a huge home field advantage maybe not as big as in Manhatten but it will be a big advantage period) especially against a very good Kansas State defense will mean turnovers and likely a muted performance by Cal's Qb be it Roberston or Rodgers.
Kansas State has some injuries but lots of returning talent with studs like Marvin Simmons the LB from Long Beach Poly and maybe the best recruit on the West Coast a few years ago only a reserve.
Kansas State has questionable kicking, but that will likely be made up for by a least one special teams touchdown.
Can the new Cal QB exploit Terrence Newman's replacement at corner? But Kansas state has some options there including some JC All Americans including one who had 12 career interceptions.
Pac 10 teams don't usually play the option that well, and especially not with the inexperience Cal has on defense, and definitely not against a Heisman Trophy candidate QB and an ultra quick TB.
There will definitely be better underdogs. I think the number is too low and is based on the fact Cal played well last year and is in the second year under Tedford; The assumption that they will be better is not unreasonable especially since Cal had a very good recruiting class. However, their graduation losses are too severe. So 27.5 is a lot but if you said put the the worst Pac 10 on the road against may be the second best Big 12 team on the road a 27.5 point line would not be unreasonable. I think the line should be 35 and I still would only look to K State.
How can everyone here believe this is such a mis-match? The next 3 games against Troy St., McNeese St., and Mass, they are total walk-overs. But the Bears do have talent in the skill posistions and they will score. The Cats are going to need 50 pts to get the cover in this game and that ain't happening. They are going to need alot of 3 and out's in this game but Cal will move the football. Just think if Cal scores first how long an afternoon it will be to cover that BIG number. Totally agree with the write-up here! Kansas St. pulls away late but not enough. Final 41-20 $koal
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> How can everyone here believe this is such a mis-match? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
K St won 9 games by more than this number last year, including these results against teams comparable to or better than this year's Cal team:
K St 44 Ok St 9
K St 58 Ia St 7
K St 49 Neb 13
K St 38 Mizzou 0
K St won 9 games by more than this number last year, including these results against teams comparable to or better than this year's Cal team:
K St 44 Ok St 9
K St 58 Ia St 7
K St 49 Neb 13
K St 38 Mizzou 0
good writeup, I see much of the same. IMO, KState should be the preseason #1. A new QB on the road for CAL, plus Roberson and Sproles are better than last year from what I'm hearing. Snyder has been quoted as saying they dont have enough plays in a game to get the ball to all the talent. I can already get +30 locally, but I'm not sure I will middle any of it even if I get a 7 pointer. I may put a little on KState -6.5 -120 first quarter. All of those teams were much better than Cal, of course this doesnt always transfer to the scoreboard.
Thanks for the analysis, Ricochet.
I wouldn't say that all the teams I mentioned were as good as Cal's team last year, but probably as good as this year's Cal team (as of now -- I suspect we will see considerable improvement as the year progresses under Tedford). It just looks like there wasn't a team worse than Cal or equal to Cal that K St did not beat by more than this number last year. Of course, past performance does not always predict future performance!
I wouldn't say that all the teams I mentioned were as good as Cal's team last year, but probably as good as this year's Cal team (as of now -- I suspect we will see considerable improvement as the year progresses under Tedford). It just looks like there wasn't a team worse than Cal or equal to Cal that K St did not beat by more than this number last year. Of course, past performance does not always predict future performance!
You forget to mention that Oklahoma St. lost 39-36 to La. Tech. Iowa St. was tourched at home against UConn 37-20. Nebraska had trouble with Troy St. and McNeese St. and Missouri was belted by Bowling Green 51-28. No brainer that Cat's are cream of the crop this year but how can you lay all these points with confidence in the first game? Similair spot in 2000 when they were 29 point fav's to Iowa in the opener and never really got it going and won only 27-7. It's just tough to click on all cylinders right out of the gates and that is a huge price to lay with a team that WILL be prepared. Good Luck Fellas..
I agree with the K State pick. Cal is way too young on defense to be able to play with this K State squad. The leading Rusher, Passer, Receiver, Tackler, Sacker and DB are gone for the Bears and they have a lot of Juco transfers and newbies that haven't played in this system.
This is a statement year I think for Roberson and there are enough high profile players back for the Cats to take this one. Sproles is back to run circles around the new Cal D. They will be money on kicks too with both kickers back.
Cal is going to play competitively once the new guys get comfortable with the system but Arrowhead is known for being a loud stadium and K State fans will definately pack this place up. It's not Manhattan but it doesn't have to be against this young group of Bears. I'll lay 28 and I don't expect to worry about this one at the end.
K State -28
This is a statement year I think for Roberson and there are enough high profile players back for the Cats to take this one. Sproles is back to run circles around the new Cal D. They will be money on kicks too with both kickers back.
Cal is going to play competitively once the new guys get comfortable with the system but Arrowhead is known for being a loud stadium and K State fans will definately pack this place up. It's not Manhattan but it doesn't have to be against this young group of Bears. I'll lay 28 and I don't expect to worry about this one at the end.
K State -28
According to many cal had a GREAT year last year going 7-5. Take away the majority of the defense and their star QB and i see trouble against a team that is trying to make statement. The loss of boller wouldnt be a big deal for a team that would return most of its starters, or a team that has a long history of great talent at all positions. For example, i think teams like miami and texas will be underrated this year (to a small extent) because they lost dorsey and simms respectively. However, both of those teams will be just as good this year without their star QBs.
Cal also was a +18 on Turnovers last year. That is usually because of defense and a QB who doesn't make mistakes (and some luck). Well they lost most of their D and their new QB will be a first time starter. You would expect them to be a negative in the TO margin this year, rather than a positive. I see this cal team as a 5 win team at best this year.
And if this group of cal players will get comfortable, it will be as the season progreses and not in the middle of a blowout against a tough K-state team IN arrowhead. They are going to need to score early to have any chance of staying close in this game. but if they fall behind early, it wil be trouble.
Cal also was a +18 on Turnovers last year. That is usually because of defense and a QB who doesn't make mistakes (and some luck). Well they lost most of their D and their new QB will be a first time starter. You would expect them to be a negative in the TO margin this year, rather than a positive. I see this cal team as a 5 win team at best this year.
And if this group of cal players will get comfortable, it will be as the season progreses and not in the middle of a blowout against a tough K-state team IN arrowhead. They are going to need to score early to have any chance of staying close in this game. but if they fall behind early, it wil be trouble.
Besides the 18+ turnovers Cal had last year which usually balance out over time, i.e. Cal should probably be negative in turnovers this year, Cal also returns the fewest amount of starters in the Pac 10 (8) and their loss of 23 letterman, 37%, is also the most in the Pac 10.
Not only does this mean there is inexperience in the starting positions but the humid heat will demand heavy subsititions and rotation of players. Kansas State will be more accustomed to the weather and Kansas State's ground control possession office will increase the probability of Cal's defense wilting in the face of Kansas States superior talent and depth.
The lack of letterman also means vulnerability and weakness on special teams, and Kansas State is very adept at returning punts and blocking kicks. The probability of special team scores for Kansas State is also very high.
So not only has Cal have heavy losses including 2 first round draft choices but how good was Cal last year? They were 7-5 and 4-4 in conference. However, they were outgained by an average of 65.2 yards in Pac 10 play. Tedford was very astute in calling and developing trick plays which produced a lot of their scoring and clearly the turnovers played a role as well.
Last year at Cal, Air Force ran for 295 yards against a far more seasoned Cal Defense.
So we have:
-a mediocre team that had heavy losses
-that will likely over this season lose the turnover battle
-on the road with a QB making his first meaningful start
-playing in scorching heat
-playing the option game which that surrendered 295 yards to last year
-versus a team that many think can win the National Championship and is 5-1 ATS on grass, 23-5 ATS in non conference games, 34-3 ATS when they score more than 40 points.(I think they score more than 40 points.)
Kan St is 33-7 ATS when favored by more than 20 points
This game is not at Manhatten, but it is quasi home game, and they are 7-1-1 ATS in home openers which means Snyder gets his guys ready early.
Cal is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 away games vs the Big 12 and 15-8 in season openers, but -3-6 last 9.
I still don't see the trap. I don't buy the exempt argument, Snyder wants to win a national championship and give his guys exposure for the Heisman, and for some voters in the Polls and for the Heisman this may be the only full unfettered Kansas State game they see. He took this game to showcase his team, and with his penchant to run it up. I think there is only one way to go. The line is getting away from what it opened and that can be dangerous, but I can't bet Cal and ask a bad team to keep it close or come with a back door cover.
Not only does this mean there is inexperience in the starting positions but the humid heat will demand heavy subsititions and rotation of players. Kansas State will be more accustomed to the weather and Kansas State's ground control possession office will increase the probability of Cal's defense wilting in the face of Kansas States superior talent and depth.
The lack of letterman also means vulnerability and weakness on special teams, and Kansas State is very adept at returning punts and blocking kicks. The probability of special team scores for Kansas State is also very high.
So not only has Cal have heavy losses including 2 first round draft choices but how good was Cal last year? They were 7-5 and 4-4 in conference. However, they were outgained by an average of 65.2 yards in Pac 10 play. Tedford was very astute in calling and developing trick plays which produced a lot of their scoring and clearly the turnovers played a role as well.
Last year at Cal, Air Force ran for 295 yards against a far more seasoned Cal Defense.
So we have:
-a mediocre team that had heavy losses
-that will likely over this season lose the turnover battle
-on the road with a QB making his first meaningful start
-playing in scorching heat
-playing the option game which that surrendered 295 yards to last year
-versus a team that many think can win the National Championship and is 5-1 ATS on grass, 23-5 ATS in non conference games, 34-3 ATS when they score more than 40 points.(I think they score more than 40 points.)
Kan St is 33-7 ATS when favored by more than 20 points
This game is not at Manhatten, but it is quasi home game, and they are 7-1-1 ATS in home openers which means Snyder gets his guys ready early.
Cal is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 away games vs the Big 12 and 15-8 in season openers, but -3-6 last 9.
I still don't see the trap. I don't buy the exempt argument, Snyder wants to win a national championship and give his guys exposure for the Heisman, and for some voters in the Polls and for the Heisman this may be the only full unfettered Kansas State game they see. He took this game to showcase his team, and with his penchant to run it up. I think there is only one way to go. The line is getting away from what it opened and that can be dangerous, but I can't bet Cal and ask a bad team to keep it close or come with a back door cover.
Below are selected quotes from head coach Jeff Tedford from his press conference heading into the Cal's game vs. Kansas State. The Bears face the Wildcats at 4:45 p.m. PT on Saturday, Aug. 23 at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium.
On expectations of players
I have real confidence in my players, but you'll always see how they respond in the arena. This is a big time college football atmosphere, it is going to be a hostile environment, and I am anxious to see how they will perform in these situations.
I am sure from time to time they'll make mistakes, but I am tremendously confident that when they make them, they'll make them full speed, and they'll bounce back and they will not let it get them down.
There are going to be setbacks from time to time. I want to see the young guys and new guys feel comfortable in a game situation. It will be a learning experience, there's no doubt. When we walk down that tunnel into that environment, I am sure that that is going to be a little different for them. Some of them aren't use to playing in that type of setting. It is going to be key that we fly around, play from snap to whistle, and if we make mistakes, we make them full speed. I don't know what to expect until we get out there. I know we have worked very hard. The work ethic has been great, so I would not expect anything different come gameday.
On Kansas State's running game
There is no question that the key to victory is stopping the run. That is what our defense is predicated on no matter who we play. But they pose a problem because their quarterback is such a tremendous athlete. They can spread you out and use him as a running back inside. On the option, he always poses an issue. But where he is really dangerous is in the passing game, not necessarily with his arm, but if things breakdown, he can scramble for big plays and make things happen with his legs. There is no question that we have to slow down the run game. I don't think we can necessarily stop their run game, but we definitely need to slow it down.
On new players affecting game
I think they are going to be in the same situation. They (Kansas State) are playing some new guys, too. They lost some guys also, so I think it is a good time to play them.
On the overall talent level of Kansas State
They are a great football team. They are big and physical on the offensive line. They are very fast and athletic at key positions - tailback and quarterback. On defense they have quite a few returners that are very gifted players, Their two linebackers have tremendous speed. Their defensive end played quite a bit last year. They are not playing with freshmen. They are playing with guys that have been there for awhile and saw some action. They are one of the top defenses in the country. One of the things that impresses me the most about them is how they tackle. They are so fast and once they get there they don't miss tackles.
On humidity/weather
We will definitely preach to hydrate, so that we'll stay away from cramping and stuff like that. We have been fortunate, in some ways, that we have had some pretty warm practices the last week or so. We even took the team off campus to get use to the heat. Today and tomorrow, I am a little bit concerned that it may be too cool here, but it is what it is and we have to prepare the best we can, and that's by making sure we stay hydrated.
On how Cal matches up vs. Kansas State
I have to wait and see in person, but on tape they look like they are very fast in all positions. Overall, based on the guys that are actually playing, they have a little bit more team speed than we have. It's in a lot of our new guys where our speed really lies. While some of those guys are contributing now, most of that speed is redshirting. But in comparison, at linebacker - our linebackers are just as fast as their linebackers, probably.
On a big game so early in the season
I think we're fine, it is good to get right into it. One of the main reasons why this game was so appealing was that we are able to take all the young guys back there. It is treated like a bowl game. Even if they are not going to play, they can experience what the expectation level is and the high level we aspire to play at - in a hostile environment. It is going to give us five conference games before we get to conference play. But I think playing the best right away is fine.
On depth
I don't know about every position. For example, last year we had five guys rotating at defensive end. This year, we are not that deep at defensive end. At tailback we have more depth. At quarterback - I had no problem using Reggie last year, so I don't feel that we are any different there really. We are probably deeper at tight end and at linebacker. It's definitely by position some places we are deep and some places we are not.
On talent level compared to last year's team
I think we will be more talented. I think we have the potential to be, however it hasn't been proven yet. I think on paper, and when you look at some of the things they do in practice, you can say that the potential is there for us to be more talented. I think it maybe reflected in our speed.
On building a winning program
That is our goal, that is our vision. We want to get on the level to where we are competing for the Pac-10 championship on a yearly basis and competing on the national level, is well. That's what Kansas State seems to do.
On the keys to victory
We have to be able to win the turnover ratio. Also third down conversion - we have to convert to keep the football. And finally we need to eliminate big plays. If we do these things, the game will be very competitive.
On the offensive line
We have four guys, two of which started every game last year, the other two rotated and got a good amount of playing time. The only guy that is really new is Nolan Bluntzer, our center, and he has done a great job through camp.
I felt like our o-line had a good camp. We were able to run the football a little bit, and I thought that they have been fairly solid. They've stayed healthy - we really have not had any offensive linemen miss practice in camp. It is so important to have
On expectations of players
I have real confidence in my players, but you'll always see how they respond in the arena. This is a big time college football atmosphere, it is going to be a hostile environment, and I am anxious to see how they will perform in these situations.
I am sure from time to time they'll make mistakes, but I am tremendously confident that when they make them, they'll make them full speed, and they'll bounce back and they will not let it get them down.
There are going to be setbacks from time to time. I want to see the young guys and new guys feel comfortable in a game situation. It will be a learning experience, there's no doubt. When we walk down that tunnel into that environment, I am sure that that is going to be a little different for them. Some of them aren't use to playing in that type of setting. It is going to be key that we fly around, play from snap to whistle, and if we make mistakes, we make them full speed. I don't know what to expect until we get out there. I know we have worked very hard. The work ethic has been great, so I would not expect anything different come gameday.
On Kansas State's running game
There is no question that the key to victory is stopping the run. That is what our defense is predicated on no matter who we play. But they pose a problem because their quarterback is such a tremendous athlete. They can spread you out and use him as a running back inside. On the option, he always poses an issue. But where he is really dangerous is in the passing game, not necessarily with his arm, but if things breakdown, he can scramble for big plays and make things happen with his legs. There is no question that we have to slow down the run game. I don't think we can necessarily stop their run game, but we definitely need to slow it down.
On new players affecting game
I think they are going to be in the same situation. They (Kansas State) are playing some new guys, too. They lost some guys also, so I think it is a good time to play them.
On the overall talent level of Kansas State
They are a great football team. They are big and physical on the offensive line. They are very fast and athletic at key positions - tailback and quarterback. On defense they have quite a few returners that are very gifted players, Their two linebackers have tremendous speed. Their defensive end played quite a bit last year. They are not playing with freshmen. They are playing with guys that have been there for awhile and saw some action. They are one of the top defenses in the country. One of the things that impresses me the most about them is how they tackle. They are so fast and once they get there they don't miss tackles.
On humidity/weather
We will definitely preach to hydrate, so that we'll stay away from cramping and stuff like that. We have been fortunate, in some ways, that we have had some pretty warm practices the last week or so. We even took the team off campus to get use to the heat. Today and tomorrow, I am a little bit concerned that it may be too cool here, but it is what it is and we have to prepare the best we can, and that's by making sure we stay hydrated.
On how Cal matches up vs. Kansas State
I have to wait and see in person, but on tape they look like they are very fast in all positions. Overall, based on the guys that are actually playing, they have a little bit more team speed than we have. It's in a lot of our new guys where our speed really lies. While some of those guys are contributing now, most of that speed is redshirting. But in comparison, at linebacker - our linebackers are just as fast as their linebackers, probably.
On a big game so early in the season
I think we're fine, it is good to get right into it. One of the main reasons why this game was so appealing was that we are able to take all the young guys back there. It is treated like a bowl game. Even if they are not going to play, they can experience what the expectation level is and the high level we aspire to play at - in a hostile environment. It is going to give us five conference games before we get to conference play. But I think playing the best right away is fine.
On depth
I don't know about every position. For example, last year we had five guys rotating at defensive end. This year, we are not that deep at defensive end. At tailback we have more depth. At quarterback - I had no problem using Reggie last year, so I don't feel that we are any different there really. We are probably deeper at tight end and at linebacker. It's definitely by position some places we are deep and some places we are not.
On talent level compared to last year's team
I think we will be more talented. I think we have the potential to be, however it hasn't been proven yet. I think on paper, and when you look at some of the things they do in practice, you can say that the potential is there for us to be more talented. I think it maybe reflected in our speed.
On building a winning program
That is our goal, that is our vision. We want to get on the level to where we are competing for the Pac-10 championship on a yearly basis and competing on the national level, is well. That's what Kansas State seems to do.
On the keys to victory
We have to be able to win the turnover ratio. Also third down conversion - we have to convert to keep the football. And finally we need to eliminate big plays. If we do these things, the game will be very competitive.
On the offensive line
We have four guys, two of which started every game last year, the other two rotated and got a good amount of playing time. The only guy that is really new is Nolan Bluntzer, our center, and he has done a great job through camp.
I felt like our o-line had a good camp. We were able to run the football a little bit, and I thought that they have been fairly solid. They've stayed healthy - we really have not had any offensive linemen miss practice in camp. It is so important to have
I keep looking for a reason that Cal can hang and the more I look the more reasons to favor KState appear.
For example Echemandu not only missed last year after tearing his ACL in spring practice the year before, but he also missed the previous season because of academics--so he has been out 2 years.
I read the Manhatten Mercury and it had a story about 2 KState DBs from California that went to JC and were ticked off that Cal did not recruit them. With a lot of players from California on the roster, its not like KState will be looking past this game.
Cal will use trick plays to try and score, but to employ them speed is a real asset and Cal's starters are not fast. Kan St's DB's reported 40 times are a lot better than Cal's receivers. So if Cal subsitute some of the speedy freshmen like Noah Smith into the game, I think Kansas State is smart enough to figure out what is going on and the execution from the freshmen could be iffy.
Finally, I am not convinced that Cal's first string is all that superior to KState's second string.
For example Echemandu not only missed last year after tearing his ACL in spring practice the year before, but he also missed the previous season because of academics--so he has been out 2 years.
I read the Manhatten Mercury and it had a story about 2 KState DBs from California that went to JC and were ticked off that Cal did not recruit them. With a lot of players from California on the roster, its not like KState will be looking past this game.
Cal will use trick plays to try and score, but to employ them speed is a real asset and Cal's starters are not fast. Kan St's DB's reported 40 times are a lot better than Cal's receivers. So if Cal subsitute some of the speedy freshmen like Noah Smith into the game, I think Kansas State is smart enough to figure out what is going on and the execution from the freshmen could be iffy.
Finally, I am not convinced that Cal's first string is all that superior to KState's second string.
Early season football is very similar to March Madness. There is so much hype and exaggeration about how good or bad a team is. One must really see through the smokescreens to win money. K St probably is 28 better than Cal on their best day. However, how many teams play their best on opening night. I'll take Jeff Tedford calling plays any day of the week. That alone covered the 28. Lots of dogs on the docket this week too against overhyped favorites. Be careful
