Cains..my method you want to see

[THEGAME9000]

OK, READY...

this will come out like organized chaos. it will take too many words to describe how simple my method of handicapping is, therein lies the rub.

1.) the rating system...all teams are given a 3-digit number according to how you think they are placed strength-wise as compared to the rest of the league.
the best team should be rated at 124 and the worst rated at 110, this is based on the fact that in any nfl game no one team is technically 14pts better than anyone else.
the ratings #'s are treated like a board game, and based on the premise that any given team can beat any other given team on any given field any given day.(parody).
you already know how to match them up...buf 127, no 124...buf by 3..etc..etc...
when logging the chart, you simply record how the team favored by 3 did vs the spread..win or loss.
certain areas cover way more than not, certain areas fail way more than not.(don't ask me how it does, it just does.)
also when adjusting the #'s from week to week the rating # for each team rarely tops 130 or dips under 100, if one does they usually rebound quickly to get back within the parameters(again, don't ask me why, they just do), like st.louis just did this last week.
now the part your probably looking for, the adjustment table from week to week..(check your email in a day or so..)...i'll give you some insight on how to decide your change table.

2.) in handicapping games i have a few things in front of me...
a stat book that holds nothing but divisional rivalries(that i logged myself), since 1977.
no play in the nfl is as important as divisional games, a team can go 8-8, lose to everyone else but beat the teams in thier division and still ensure themselves a shot at the playoffs and a chance to go to the sb.

the next is another book i logged that just holds trends and stats for individual teams in individual situations throughout the year.
i only keep stats and trends that hold their own over periods of time, and only ones that have proven to provide winners at a 75% or up clip.
some people say trends that go back 20 years are useless and outdated, i say if a trend has been consistent over 20 years you have a paycheck stat.

the next is a layout of every teams year by year seasonal schedule and results su and against the spread going back 20 years.
this is used for quick research and cross reference, i find it impossible to cross reference anything on a single pc screen, everything must always be in writing, ACCURATE and available.

last is this years current schedule filled out up to date to allow me to see scheduling twists.

at the end of every week(on tuesday) i must record each and every game, score, side and total, stat and trend change and update, and also change the rating #'s using the change table.

then i start it all over again for the next upcoming week.hno:

phew....so you see, there is no magic trick, no looking at other peoples picks, or service plays or coin flipping...i simply don't have time.
every play i give are all derived by hard work and research.

if there is something i left out, or that you need to know, feel free to ask.

GAME.

 

[jasmine]

Hello Game, is there a way I can contact you via private message or some how? Thanks

 

[cd329]

Game,
How do you adjust the teams ratings each week?
Thanks and good luck
cd:toast:

 

[Broncos625]

How do you decide what the three digit rating is to start with? Do you just pick a number at random based on how you feel the team is?

 

[THEGAME9000]

How do you decide what the three digit rating is to start with? Do you just pick a number at random based on how you feel the team is?

I imagine you could pick any 3 digit #, i just think it simpler to go with the lower #'s.
as long as they are all within 14pts to start.
the adjustment table will determine what they are the rest of the way.

(and yes i am still conflicted about giving up the adjustment table, i just might though cause it would definately lighten my load to have others run it for themselves, maybe even perfect it better than me)

but then again i would have to do it anyway to make sure it's accurate, and i would also hate answering questions on, "if it's right".

 

[cains]

OK, READY...

this will come out like organized chaos. it will take too many words to describe how simple my method of handicapping is, therein lies the rub.

1.) the rating system...all teams are given a 3-digit number according to how you think they are placed strength-wise as compared to the rest of the league.
the best team should be rated at 124 and the worst rated at 110, this is based on the fact that in any nfl game no one team is technically 14pts better than anyone else.
the ratings #'s are treated like a board game, and based on the premise that any given team can beat any other given team on any given field any given day.(parody).
you already know how to match them up...buf 127, no 124...buf by 3..etc..etc...
when logging the chart, you simply record how the team favored by 3 did vs the spread..win or loss.
certain areas cover way more than not, certain areas fail way more than not.(don't ask me how it does, it just does.)
also when adjusting the #'s from week to week the rating # for each team rarely tops 130 or dips under 100, if one does they usually rebound quickly to get back within the parameters(again, don't ask me why, they just do), like st.louis just did this last week.
now the part your probably looking for, the adjustment table from week to week..(check your email in a day or so..)...i'll give you some insight on how to decide your change table.

2.) in handicapping games i have a few things in front of me...
a stat book that holds nothing but divisional rivalries(that i logged myself), since 1977.
no play in the nfl is as important as divisional games, a team can go 8-8, lose to everyone else but beat the teams in thier division and still ensure themselves a shot at the playoffs and a chance to go to the sb.

the next is another book i logged that just holds trends and stats for individual teams in individual situations throughout the year.
i only keep stats and trends that hold their own over periods of time, and only ones that have proven to provide winners at a 75% or up clip.
some people say trends that go back 20 years are useless and outdated, i say if a trend has been consistent over 20 years you have a paycheck stat.

the next is a layout of every teams year by year seasonal schedule and results su and against the spread going back 20 years.
this is used for quick research and cross reference, i find it impossible to cross reference anything on a single pc screen, everything must always be in writing, ACCURATE and available.

last is this years current schedule filled out up to date to allow me to see scheduling twists.

at the end of every week(on tuesday) i must record each and every game, score, side and total, stat and trend change and update, and also change the rating #'s using the change table.

then i start it all over again for the next upcoming week.hno:

phew....so you see, there is no magic trick, no looking at other peoples picks, or service plays or coin flipping...i simply don't have time.
every play i give are all derived by hard work and research.

if there is something i left out, or that you need to know, feel free to ask.

GAME.

1. Looking forward to the mail..

2. Is problebly where im most curius. How do you keep track on all trends and systems. I agree that its only the best 25% trends that should be kept. Everything else is not worth a penny imo. But i guess there could be so many trends for each team, it would take several days to keep track of them all.

fx.

ten 9-1-1 ats after playing balt s 98
ten 7-0 over before mnf s 01
ten 7-3 over in 2nd of b2b road games s 03
ten 13-4 over after scoring and allowing 14pts or less s 98

and

mia 0-9 ats as a fav off a su loss s 04
mia 1-9-1 ats off a su loss of 6pts or less s 05
mia 3-20 under in 1st of b2b home games s 96
mia 13-34 under in home games with line of +3 to -3 s 92

and also this.. You got one written down for every team that losses / wins by x amount of points??

the last 13 games stl won by 3pts or less have been followed by games averaging 55pts s 96 (only 2 games totalled less than 47)

There you got some good trends for the two teams.. I think there must be 50 good trends for each team. How do you keep track of all of them, and easily pick those out that fits in this game?? (can explain more in mail reply when you mail me if in doubt )

the next is a layout of every teams year by year seasonal schedule and results su and against the spread going back 20 years.
this is used for quick research and cross reference,

and

last is this years current schedule filled out up to date to allow me to see scheduling twists.

Dont understand those two fully


Looking forward to learn some more

 

[THEGAME9000]

ok cains, lets see if i can clear it up..

as far as trends go, everything happens by keeping an "accurate" account of every teams yearly results from game 1 through game 16.
a full record of who they played, when, what the outcome was(spread,total,score,date,etc) including which games were mnf and what week the bye was.
one for this year,07,06,05,04,03,02,etc...basically the teams schedule with every games outcome written in.
put them all on one page per each team.
this is a quick way to look back and start establishing trends.
go for trends that apply to all teams such as before and after games, before and after scoring so much or not at all, b2b games, 40pt games,before and after rivalry games, winning so many games su and ats, losing so many su and ats,before and after mnf, before and after byes, 1st games, last games, non-con games, anything you can think of...
this is where having teams history in front of you pays off, it's a quick way to find and establish trends over years.
after the trends you make hit over the years, you'll know those are the one's to keep, the one's you find that don't hit discard right away, these are coincidence stats and of no use.

the st.louis trend is one that comes from purely studying over past histories for hours and hours, you just find stuff like that, like the one i had for alternating score totals for the det/min game last week.

there are actually yearly books you can pick up to make this easier, marc lawrence's playbook has got a perfect layout for this, but you can't trust any information it has because it has so many inconsistencies and inaccuracies it can't be called facts, but the layout is great, it's where i got the idea of what to have in front of me.

HUGELY IMPORTANT, is the fact that you keep, log and record all your own information, scores and spreads so you know they are accurate and can be relied upon..(HUGELY IMPORTANT).
ALSO ONLY GO BY CLOSING LINES FROM 1 SOURCE EVERY YEAR...i like to go by monday's lines in the usa today..danny sheridan...it was there from the start, and will be there until he dies...a locked up lifetime contract.

for the divisional rivalries you'll need a book unto itself, it takes alot of writing to record every divisional rivalry in the nfl...date everything, you'll find that neccesary for crossreference and quick fact checking.

once you get involved in doing it like this, get ready because your wife will hate you, your friends will be pissed off and you will end up staying up late at night every night for the length of the nfl season, it's alot of writing, sucks up all your time and is as addictive as blow.

now i've been trying to figure out the private messaging here today, it must just be me, but i'm finding it hard to do.
request a private message with me, i'll accept it and then tell you how to do the adjustment chart for the ratings #'s.

if you can't i'll try you. let me know.

GAME.

 

[cains]

now i've been trying to figure out the private messaging here today, it must just be me, but i'm finding it hard to do.
GAME.

should be send now