C-Golds week 15 Early Looks open discussion

[C-Gold]

Alright fellas, Let's corner the bookies and make some money. If we all contribute our knowledge ( some people know certain teams more than others), we can beat the books.

Back in the "covers" days, I used to publish my early leans/thoughts and other quality cappers like Glyde, Slingzz, Blitzbandit, would weigh in. Usually, we'd see pretty eye to eye. So this week I am turning back the clock to the old format. Let's make some MAHDA FAWKEING MONEY !!!



Chicago/New Orleans
- New Orleans is 1-5 on the road, I can't get that stat past my mind. That offense averages 28 PPG overall, but only 22 PPG on the road. The Saints could score 51 points on Green Bay at home, but then shit out 7 points vs Carolina on the road.
- Chicago is 4-2 at home with their only losses at TD loss to the Titans, and an OT Loss to the Bucs. The Bears defense has actually performed a little worst statistically at home, but their offense has performed better. I susupect that MOST of that data comes from that outlier 48-41 win vs Minnesota.
- I see some key injuries for the Saints on defense. C. Grant, Mckenzie and Porter hurt, Kaesvaharn is a starter the bum safety is injured but that guy should go back to substitute teaching.
- The Bears are actually pretty healty, with Nathan Vasher as the only real key injury.

Total opened at 46 and got bought down to 44.5
The Saints have gone over 13-4-1 out of their last 18
The Saints have gone over 19-7-1 out of their last 27 vs NFC
Chicago has gone over 19-7 of their last 26 home games
Chicago has gone over 27-11-1 out of hteir last 39 vs NFC

I would lean Bears and the over right now. This is a rematch of 2 years ago's NFC Championship and the Bears won at home 39-14. Drew Brees had no run game ( Reggie Bush ran for 19 yards). Brees had to do it all by himself, throwing for 354 in a losing effort while Sexy Rexy completed 11/26 passes for 144 yards and "managed the game". This is a classic offense vs defense, and the home field favors the Bears. That Saints offense just isn't as potent on grass and in the cold and wind.

Seattle @ St. Louis
This is the kind of game that only a Seattle fan, St Louis fan, or true degenerate would bet on. There is no reason for anybody to watch a game between a team that lost 6 straight games and a team that lost 7 straight games.

The Hawks actually covered last week with the help of a bullshit Deion Branch out of bounds play but that's cool. I watched the Hawks on Thanksgiving and saw no pass rush on the road in Dallas, but they actually came close to Matt Cassell last week. It looks like the young USC Draft pick Lawrence Jackson was able to apply some pressure. Seattle has one of the shittiest pass defenses in the league, but I think that is more of a function of a weak pass rush than shoddy corners ( Marcus Trufant is still a beast).

The only line I see right now is STL + 3 at the Las Vegas Hilton. I think the books are waiting to see if another mobile QB is going to get the start or Matt Hasselback. If you can't tell, I am not a very big fan of 5'10 "scramblers" playing QB in the NFL. If I wanted to watch that, I'd watch football on Saturdays or Fridays. Sundays are for throwers.

The thing about Seattle, is their offensive line is in shambles. Their starting Center is out ( never underestimate that!), their best Guard is out with injury, and Walter Jones is day to day.

The Rams are a crappy football team, but the only area where I do see strong promise is their Defensive line. Chris Long and Leonard Little have speed on the outside, while Glover and Carriker have power inside.

I see no reason to bet this game. You just can't count on two piss poor football teams. Both offenses average under 20 PPG and the defenses give up a compined 56 PPG on average.


Bills @ Jets
Was it me or did the Buffalo Bills start this season 5-1? The team has lost 6 or their last 7 since then to be 6-7.
- Two weeks ago the ESPN Hype machine talked about a Jet/Giants SB, but now the Jets dropped 2 in a row to below average football teams. WHOOPS!

The Line opened Jets -6.5, the Line now sits at Jets -7, and Jets -7.5 at Bet ed. I would anticipate the Public liking the Jets in this one, so if you do want to play ( or tease the Jets), I would suggest doing that early in the week.

- The Jets are 3-9 ATS vs a team with a losting record ( playing down to the competition)
- Buffalo has gone Under 6-2-1 vs the AFC East.

The Bills "might" get Trent Edwards back to start over that punk Surfer mobile quarterback JP LOSE MAN.


I'd actually lean on the Jets to win this game at home after 2 crappy weeks. It might be good to tease this game now when the line is 7 early in the week before it could get bought up to potentially 9 before kick off. The Jets average 4.8 Yards per carry running the ball at home for 126.5 yards, while the Bills run defense gives up 4.3 per carry on the road for 123.8 yards. It looks like Thomas Jones should surpass the 100 yard mark with a touch or two.

The Ace in the hole stat I have for you, is that Buffalo's Defense only has 7 INT's, so if you are counting on Favre throwing 3 or 4 crappy INT's, you might not get bailed out.

 

[C-Gold]

SF @ Miami

- SF has quietly won 3 out of their last 4
- Miami has quietly won 6 of their last 7

It seems like SF backers like to back their new head coach with fire in those bug eyes of his... calling out lazy me first players like Vernon Davis, while Miami backers like playing the "hot suprise team" of 2008.



I have a couple of stats you might like...
Miami leads the NFL in Take away/give away +12
San Fran is dead last in the NFL in Take away/give aways -14

Why?

Miami has Chad Pennington playing Martyball at QB. I am not sure if it still holds true, but he has the highest completion percentage of any active QB's. Everybody knows he has a weak little noddle arm, but the guy does well at dinking and dunking you all day and not turning the ball over. I don't know if it is so much that he can't throw the ball deep, but with all those surgeries, the guy only has so much stamina.

On the other side of the ball, we have Mike Martz the mad scientist. The guy lost the Rams/Patriots SB because Bill Bellicheck was running at nickel defense as his BASE defense begging Martz to run the ball with Marshall Faulk. Martz and his ego just had to pass to win instead of run to win, and Bellicheck called his bluff.


This is one of the famous " west coast teams traveling east for a 1pm start". The San Fran turnover machines vs the Miami Dolphins. I am not sure if I am going to play this game, but it wouldnt' shock me to see Miami shit stomp the 49ers due to winning the turnover battle big.

 

[C-Gold]

SD @ KC

SD is not who we thought they were this year as they have lost 5 of their last 7 games. They have had a heavy dose of bad calls, inconsistant road play, LT hitting a wall, Turner gone, Merriman out, and Norv Turner.

KC has actually won 2 in a row winning @ Oakland and @ Denver. Their last 2 home games they gave up a combined 84 points in losses.

When I think of homefield advantage, the Chiefs are one team I think of, so starting out a 3.5 point dog, bought already up to 6 is interesting. The public is sure to bet on KC, and home dogs haven't done well this year. Is now the time to lay some coin on KC?

Tyler Thigpen has thrown 14 TDs, 8 INTs and has a respectable 77 QB rating for a young guy coming out of nowhere. Is that enough to take the home dog? They still do have the HERM at head coach.

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings
The dog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings
KC in december, home underdog

KC could be a home dog that cashes, but I'd like to look at other games before taking an unproven QB and the HERM.

 

[merci4one]

nice write up, agree with all your picks except SD/KC... not certain about that... as for myself, i have SD so far...
lets cash these games baby....ope::aktion033:aktion033:aktion033ope:

 

[C-Gold]

Green Bay @ Jax

Watch for this game to be heavily bet on by Green Bay. Jacksonville looked like absolute shit in their MNF game, their defense isn't what it was last year, they had internal conflict, people think they quit on the coach, and their mobile quarterback's true colors have come out.

Aaron Rodgers on the other hand has a 92.1 QB rating, 22 TDs, 11 INTs and he has done a better job than most though ( myself included) filling in for #4.

The Pack have lost 3 in a row ( some close ones to Houston and Carolina), while the Jags have lost 6 of 7. In fact, Gren Bay has actually averaged 3 points more than opponents, yet they are 5-8. They have lost a lot of close games ( Titans, Vikings, Carolina, Houston) to decent teams.


Can the pack win on the road? Well they are 2-4, but I see no reason why they can't beat the 1-5 home Jags. This game "could" be a sucker bet, but the Packers are actually a +7 team in the turnover margin.

The Packers pass D has been exposed as of late, but Garrard's arm doesn't scare me. The Jags have also lost Matt Jones and Rasheen Mathis for the year.


I lean the Packers here.

 

[C-Gold]

The Packers run D has been run over this year to the tune of 141.8 yards per game and the Jags do have MJD and Fred Taylor, but is their O-line capeable of beating anybody? The Jags STILL don't run the ball for over 100 yards on grass.

My guess is the reason why this line is "light" and pretty close is because the books figure Jack Del Rio will just hammer away with his 2 running backs against the weak packers D.

If I am the Packers defensive coordinator, I have 8 guys in the box every single down, and I forge David Garrard to beat me throwing passes to Jerry Porter ( 1 catch last week), Dennis Northcut ( 1 catch, 5 yards last week), and an injured Troy Williamson.

 

[C-Gold]

Detroit @ Indy


Bail out Detroit? Not happening this week. The lions could go down in NFL history as one of the worst teams to ever put on a uniform. They have an immature child playing QB, a center that flicks off the fans, a horrible defense, and only a few Players to build around ( Calvin Johnson, Ernie Simms, Cliff Avril and Leigh Bodden). I was fading the Lions earlier this year, and on Thanksgiving when you have idiots saying ( play the Lions on Thanksgiving, they always try harder).

The Lions are so bad, and everybody knows it. You aren't going to make money fading a team everybody knows that sucks, you need to fade a team people actually LIKE. The Lions are one of the worst teams in NFL history, but they are 5-8 ATS.

The Colts have won 6 in a row, but before last week, their wins margins were 4, 3, 6, 4, 3.

You see, most QB's in the NFL take snaps and try and score points. Peyton Manning on the other hand, is asked to have nice long time consuming efficient drives that keep his defense off the field and score points. It is a lot harder to do. The Colts might get Jeff Saturday and some others back, but they might as well let them sit as this is about as close to a bye week as you come.

I already have NFL futures on the Colts to win the SB +900 and over 11 games +140 which I bought before this season started.

 

[C-Gold]

Titans @ Houston
Houston is the 3 point home dog

The Titans and Bucs have been two of my darling teams this year. The Titans are 11-1 and 10-2 ATS. In fact, I faded them in their ATS loss to Green Bay too.

The Titans are 6-0 on the road
The Titans are 6-0 ATS on the road
Houston is 4-2 at home
Houston is 2-4 ATS at home

Houston racks up 381.5 yards per game on offense,
but the Titans give up a stingy 273.8 on defense

the Titans love to run on offense 145.8 & 4.4 per carry
Houston can't stop the run on Defense 127.3 & 4.6 per carry


I actually like both coaches. Fish is clearly one of the best in the league, he isn't going to be tricked in game situations ( like Dungy) and he can game plan and beat teams better than him.

Kubiak hasn't gotten a lot of praise yet, but he took over a weak team with a horribe QB ( Carr) and is building them in that Denver image. If he was in a crappy division, his success would be a lot more apparent, but he plays in a divison with Peyton Manning, 1st place Fischer, and Jack Del Rio has done well with the Jags besides this year. While everybody is jumping on the Mangini, Sean Payton, Tomlin bandwagons for young coaches with bright futures, I think Kubiak is underrated considering what he has done and what he has. I mean, he's had a backup QB over 50% of the time the past 2 years and basically has a .500 record. Where would Dungy be without Manning, or Marvin Lewis without Caron Palmer ( jobless), Payton without Brees etc.


I do lean the Titans here, I'd want to get them at -3. I think they match up well, but Houston is no push over. I don't see this game as a lock by any means, and Houston is a home dog ( which they should do well), but the Titans are the better all around team. Some weeks I just consider taking every home dog across the board. Last week you'd bet 2-0, and based on how home dogs have done this season, they are due to cash in during the coming weeks.

 

[C-Gold]

Redskins @ Cincy

Another one of those home dogs here.

Last week I loved the Washington under at baltimore. I had that game circled on my card and I pounded it like your little sister. This week I wanted to get washington in another under situation vs the Bengals. The line opened at 36. The bookies aren't going to make it that easy this time.


The Bengals average 11.8 PPG and Washington averages 16.8

Let's take a look at the Redskins point totals
@ Bal 10
NYG 7
@ Sea 20
Dal 10
Pit 6
@ Det 25 ( 7 on a punt return TD)
Cle 14
STL 17
@ Phi 23
@ Dal 26
Ari 24
NO 29
NYG 7

Cincy
@ Indy 3
Bal 3
@ Pitt 10
Phi 13 ( tie game, I believe they had 17 possessions)
Jax 21
@ Hou 6
Pitt 10
@ Jets 14
@ Dal 22
Cle 12
@ Giants 23
Tenn 7
@ Bal 10

The Bengals are dead last in offensive scoring and Washington is the 4th worst in scoring. Cincy has an excuse because they lost their top 5 QB Carson Palmer and are playing a Harvard geek, but Washington has all of those Danny Snyder Free Agents/Draft picks in play with their West Coast offense coach, it's just they have a complete Moron Jason Campbell running the plays.

Campbell might not throw a lot of INT's, but the guy has the 4the 4th lowest scoring offense in the league with the # 3 rusher, A pro bowl Tight end, A Pro Bowl WR, 3 second round draft pick pass catchers, the highest paid Slot WR, a Pro Bowl Left tackle, a coach that holds your hand to go over all the plays? Fans in Washington blame everybody but the big Alabama dope at QB, but HE is your problem. He is Byron Leftwhich part 2, and he will never be more than a game manager. That offense is an average 16th in Yards, but 29th in scoring. It is because the coaching staff is mortally affraid of giving Lional Richie the opportunity to throw the ball downfield and make plays ( and mistakes). Instead, he completes 50% of his passes to a RB or Tight end, and hopes to god they pick up passing yards, instead of throwing the ball downfield like a QB is supposed to.

The Redskins also have problems with their running back from the U. Clinton Portis doesn't like to practice and tried to milk his injuries into no practice last week. He gets into the Ravens game and fumbles early on, and Zorn benched him. His reason was that he didn't practice and "didn't know all the protections". Well, Clinton Portis wasn't too happy about that, just like he lashed out at Brian Mitchell earlier in the year, just like he called in the John Thompson show and bitched about the disfunction of the Redskins organization last year. Portis just loves to throw that dirty laundry out there. The guy is beyond brain dead, and that turmoil on offense could mean a lower score.

Stephan Heyer is supposed to kick out to LT for the injured Chris Samuels. A weaker offensive line should also make it harder for the Redskins to score. The Bengals might not get the sacks, but life should be easier.

Cincy D has the 2nd least sacks in the league 13.
Wash D has the 4th least sacks in the league 19.

This game features 2 of the lowest 5 scoring teams, but the Redskins have a strong defense, and Cincy has a bad defense.


I like the Under 36.5 here.

 

[sumday]

I like Jets. It's not that Jets are so great, it's moreso that the Bills really suck. Jets at home vs a Bills team that seems to be having problems on many levels right now.

 

[C-Gold]

Washington in their last 9 games

0 overs
8 unders
1 push

Wash has 2 overs, 10 unders, 1 push on the year.... Jason Campbell is an over hyped media QB overrated like Byron Leftwhich and Michael Vick were.


First Buy: Wash/Cincy UNDER 37 ( -120) 2 units

 

[C-Gold]

I like Jets. It's not that Jets are so great, it's moreso that the Bills really suck. Jets at home vs a Bills team that seems to be having problems on many levels right now.

I think the Jets at -7 or -7.5 is a good teaser play. They should be able to run the ball for 100+ yards with Thomas Jones, even bonus yards with Leon Washington, and Buffalo isn't very good at intercepting passes which can be Brett Favres down fall. The ball should be in the Jets court.

JP Losman is another garbage mobile quarterback, and Trent Edwards would be coming back from injury. Neither guy is going to kill you with his arm, and the Jets offense should be able to move the ball more.


You know I like the Redskins under, that might be a good teaser for ya if you don't drink the cool aid the way I do. They are freaking 8-0-1 in Unders in their last 9. Jason Campbell is a turd.

 

[C-Gold]

So NE is -7.5, Jets -7, Miami -7, San Diego -6, Carolina -7.5, Washington is -6.5. These numbers are all tempting for teaser players, but I highly doubt all of these teams win outright. The books need some of the teams to lose outright to bust up those teasers.

If I had to guess right now, I'd guess Denver upsets Carolina, or KC the dog at home pulls the shocker on San Diego. New England is probably my least likely to get upset @ the Raiders, and I'd actually like to tease them with something.

 

[C-Gold]

We have 5 home dogs this week

Stl +3
Jax +2
KC +6
Hou +3.5
Oak +7.5

I am very confident at least 3 of them will cover. In fact, it might be worth it to just place a small wager on all 5 of them.

I know the money will flow onto GB, SD, Ten and NE.

 

[kreitmaster]

Washington in their last 9 games

0 overs
8 unders
1 push

Wash has 2 overs, 10 unders, 1 push on the year.... Jason Campbell is an over hyped media QB overrated like Byron Leftwhich and Michael Vick were.


First Buy: Wash/Cincy UNDER 37 ( -120) 2 units

Stop hating on Campbell you piece of ****. Campbell is not the main problem in the offense. Watch a freakin game for once and stop bashing when you have no clue! Yes, he has struggled against the Steelers, how'd Romo look?, the Cowboys, the Giants, and the Ravens. Most QBs do struggle against those teams, not to mention the LINE SUCKS. Samuels was been very injured since the bye and now he's out for the season. Jansen is over the hill and can't pass protect. The other guys are certainly getting up there in age and they've collectively had tremendous problems picking up the blitz. Zorn has lost his play calling magic. The three 2nd round receiving options have been absolute garbage; Devin Thomas is too dumb to pick up the offense, Malcolm Kelly has been out most of the year with knee problems and Fred Davis has barely played. Portis has been banged up and not getting touches when the team starts losing. Peyton Manning would have struggled during this stretch of games in this garbage offense. WATCH A GAME AND STOP BASHING CAMPBELL WHEN THERE ARE A MILLION OTHER REASONS WHY THE OFFENSE BLOWS!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[709]

nice write up, agree with all your picks except SD/KC... not certain about that... as for myself, i have SD so far...
lets cash these games baby....ope::aktion033:aktion033:aktion033ope:

:nono5:Nope, KC will win this one in a close game. I love the plus side

 

[awmllc2000]

We obviously dont see eye to eye on alot of things, but I do respect the time you put into this passion. As you will see by my early picks we see eye to eye on a few games this week. Gl C-gold and we are all here for one reason, to smash the books.

 

[Scans33]

We obviously dont see eye to eye on alot of things, but I do respect the time you put into this passion. As you will see by my early picks we see eye to eye on a few games this week. Gl C-gold and we are all here for one reason, to smash the books.

Well said ... it's all about the :money8:

 

[soswalter]

Stop hating on Campbell you piece of ****. Campbell is not the main problem in the offense. Watch a freakin game for once and stop bashing when you have no clue! Yes, he has struggled against the Steelers, how'd Romo look?, the Cowboys, the Giants, and the Ravens. Most QBs do struggle against those teams, not to mention the LINE SUCKS. Samuels was been very injured since the bye and now he's out for the season. Jansen is over the hill and can't pass protect. The other guys are certainly getting up there in age and they've collectively had tremendous problems picking up the blitz. Zorn has lost his play calling magic. The three 2nd round receiving options have been absolute garbage; Devin Thomas is too dumb to pick up the offense, Malcolm Kelly has been out most of the year with knee problems and Fred Davis has barely played. Portis has been banged up and not getting touches when the team starts losing. Peyton Manning would have struggled during this stretch of games in this garbage offense. WATCH A GAME AND STOP BASHING CAMPBELL WHEN THERE ARE A MILLION OTHER REASONS WHY THE OFFENSE BLOWS!!!!!!!!!!!

So how do you really feel about Campbell?

 

[C-Gold]

Stop hating on Campbell you piece of ****. Campbell is not the main problem in the offense. Watch a freakin game for once and stop bashing when you have no clue! Yes, he has struggled against the Steelers, how'd Romo look?, the Cowboys, the Giants, and the Ravens. Most QBs do struggle against those teams, not to mention the LINE SUCKS. Samuels was been very injured since the bye and now he's out for the season. Jansen is over the hill and can't pass protect. The other guys are certainly getting up there in age and they've collectively had tremendous problems picking up the blitz. Zorn has lost his play calling magic. The three 2nd round receiving options have been absolute garbage; Devin Thomas is too dumb to pick up the offense, Malcolm Kelly has been out most of the year with knee problems and Fred Davis has barely played. Portis has been banged up and not getting touches when the team starts losing. Peyton Manning would have struggled during this stretch of games in this garbage offense. WATCH A GAME AND STOP BASHING CAMPBELL WHEN THERE ARE A MILLION OTHER REASONS WHY THE OFFENSE BLOWS!!!!!!!!!!!

I have watched every single Redskins game this season, and every single play. I listen to the local radio and watched most of their preseason games too. I have followed this guys career, and nothing at all, physically, mentally, emotionally impresses me.


You say that " his receivers have been garbage". That is the exact same thing I heard about Michael Vick, as the Atlanta Falcons held the bag until that ship sunk all the way into a Missouri Jail cell. It's kind of funny that now that they have a passer QB instead of a runner QB that Roddy White and Michael Jenkens aren't the laughing stock of the league anymore.

Campbel's line is good. They were leading the way for the leagues top rusher for a while. Samuels is a pro bowler. Thomas is almost at that level, and Janesen is a fomer pro bowler. Rauback isn't bad, Kendell had pro bowl talent at one time. The problem with that line is that their trusting QB doesn't audible, and can't read a defense. Life in NY is so much easier when Eli points out the "mike" and the blitz before every play. The Giants don't have 5 maulers on their line, but you aren't going to get cheap sacks because of free blitzers coming in. That's to Eli's blitz audibles. Campbell can't even read the defense and is throwing check downs and WR screens 50% of the time! It is all one giant cop out. The Reason why they can't score points against a good defense, is because Campbell's check down offense is easier to defense.

The redskins have not scored over 30 points this season! They have only scored over 20 points 4 times and we are going into week 15. If you want to rid the QB of all responsibility then I am sorry my friend. You say that putting up low totals against the good defense isn't that bad, well how about 14 vs the Browns, 17 vs the Rams and 25-7(18) vs the Lions. One of Campbell's least impressive games was actually the Lions game.... He fumbled early on holding onto the ball foreverrrrrrrr like he does, and the Lions took the lead.

Same thing with Michael Vick and Byron Leftwhich. The guys held onto the ball forever and got sacked a lot. Then people would cry that they had no line. Jason Leftwhich holds onto the ball forever and has a slow release....

Not every good for a west coast offense.

The under is 8-0-1 in the last 9 :toast: