C-Gold, week 14

[C-Gold]

Week 13 was mainly just a push. I had a lot of plays, and was happy with who won and lost in the NFL ( Giants beat Redskins), but I only won 1 unit ATS, and played a long shot teaser for -.5 units.


Week 14
I like the Pats over Seattle. I think with the line where it is, you have a number of different ways to play it. ATS, tease it down to -3, ML, or a regular teaser ( which I am against unless you have something you really want to pair it against).


Patriots -3 ( -190) 3 units to win a little over 1.5
Patriots -5 1 unit

I think by kickoff, the line will be Patriots -6, so get it early. The Patriots are a road team, but they shouldn't struggle to score points. If Seattle has any offense at all, I'd love the over 43, but their offensive line has been horrible ( and not just in the Dallas game). The Pitt game should be an aberation, as Matt Cassell had no problem putting up 48 points on the road in Miami.

Seattle's pass rush was horrible in the Dallas game, and I don't expect them to get to Cassell throwing those short passes. Seattle's pass defense is terrible, but their Run D is ok. How does that fare vs NE? NE can throw the ball, but have a RB by committe that is set up by their pass. Good match up for the Pats.

Seattle is a dead lame duck ( or sea gull or seahawk), and the Patriots are fighting for their playoff lives. At this point in the Season, I see that Bill Bellicheck and his team have really done their home work, and the Patriots have been moving the ball, and scoring points. On defense, they can use that 3-4 against one of the worst offensive lines in pro football. NE is awsome at stopping the run, but their aging defense can get exposed vs the pass. Seattle has actually been decent running the ball, but they can't get enough time to pass. Another good match up for the Pats. I'd also consider taking the Pats 1st Q and 1st half as well. They should bounce back from that embarassing loss.

:toast:

 

[C-Gold]

ADD


Chargers/Raiders UNDER 21 1st half ( 1 unit)

 

[C-Gold]

ADDED

Chargers/Raiders UNDER 19.5 2nd half ( 1 unit)

 

[C-Gold]

1-1 on Thursday.

It is Saturday morning and that Patriots line has moved from -4.5 to -7 at Beted! Some books still have it at 4.5, but most of them moved the line to 6, 6.5, and Beted has it at +7!

I hope you followed that pick early for Patriots betters.

 

[C-Gold]

ADD
Washington/Bal 1st half under 18 ( 2 units)
Washington/Bal under 36 ( 2 units)

Philly +7.5 ( 1 unit)


Philly's last few games vs the Giants...
5 point loss earlier this year @ NY
3 point loss last year @ Philly
13 point loss last year @ NY
3 point win @ Philly 2 years ago ( playoffs)
14 point win @ NY 2 years ago
6 point loss @ Philly 2 years ago ( Over time)
3 point loss @ Philly 3 years ago ( OT)

That is 7 games right there, and 5 of them were within that 7.5 point margin and a couple of them Philly won outright. In reality, Plax did play a major part in those games, I can remember that deep Ball that Plax caught to win the OT game in 2006.

The Giants are 10-2 ATS, the Eagles are 7-5 ATS and the last few weeks people said that they would take the Giants at any line, and some people said they would never bet Philly ever again.

Philly had their backs against the wall last week ( and crushed Arizona), and they pretty much have their playoff hopes on the line this week. I am a little bit biased in Giants games ( and wouldn't care if the Giants won 49-0 as it would easily be worth a 1 unit loss), but I felt the Giants are NOT going to go 15-1, and a loss to the Eagles here in upsetting fashion is very possible.... even before you take the TD and hook.

Some of the Giants beef on their lines are dinged as questionable: Center Shaun O'Hara and run stopper Fred Robbins. People are talking about Asante Samuel and Bryan Westrbook, but make no mistake to the value of the Giants center and run stopper.

Washington/Baltimore
These defenses give up an average of 34 points per game, and neither offense here scares me. In fact, Portis and Willis are both dinged up. Rice and Betts aren't bad, but neither have the big play ability and neither team should be able to run the ball much anyway. Here you have two game managers against solid defenses.

Take a loot at Washington's recent offensive output.
7 points vs the Giants on road
20 vs Seattle on road
10 vs Dallas at home
6 at home vs Pitt
25 vs Detroit
14 vs Cleveland
17 at home vs the Rams


The most points they ever scored in the past half season is 25 vs Detroit. In all honesty, that might be one of the more unimpressive outputs. 25 vs Detroit and 17 points vs the Rams is not very good considering they are two of the worst defenses in the league. Forget the 7 and 6 point outputs vs good defenses, consider that they can't impress you against the Scrubs, and even 7 of those points vs the Lions were on a Punt Return.

I think it is pretty safe to say the Redskins won't be scoring a lot this week. Baltimore is on the same caliber as the defenses that held the Redskins to 14 or less points. The biggest worry is Baltimore scoring more than their fair share.

In fact, the Ravens are a defensive team, but quietly 8-3-1 on overs. I think piling up the points on Cincinatti, Houston or some of the other teams in blow out wins is a lot easier than vs Washington this week. Both defenses give up 90 or less rushing yards per game, and 300 total offensive yards.

Another factor is that we could see snow and very cold temperatures here in Washington. I'd expect similar in Baltimore, and especially for a night game.

GL.

 

[C-Gold]

Sunday Card
Patriots -3 ( -190) 3 units
Patriots -5 ( 1 unit)
Wash/Balt under 18 first half ( 2 units)
Wash/Balt under 36 ( 2 units)
Eagles + 7.5 ( 1 unit)

 

[awmllc2000]

Since noone else is chiming in...Good luck pal!

 

[hannowsky77]

playing pats -4.5 i think this line will cash no problem the pats dont usually lose two in a row love that baltimore/washington under also. and im not betting against giants no matter how many players shoot themselves lol BOL to ya thanks

 

[C-Gold]

ADD

Pats + Redskins/Bal Under 42 teaser 3 units


I did some thinking and decided to play these games pretty hard this week. We just had some light snow in DC and it is freezing and will be tomorrow. The Pats line is 6.5 at least at every book, and some books have it at 7 and 7.5. That line already moved 3 points and Seattle having their 2 best linemen questionable only makes that job for Hassellback ( who is still not 100%) that much harder.

 

[I_Need_Money]

That line already moved 3 points and Seattle having their 2 best linemen questionable only makes that job for Hassellback ( who is still not 100%) that much harder.

I think the line move because Hasselbeck was ruled out. You get to have your -3 vs Seneca Wallace :toast:

I got on it early too, good luck man.


Also like a 6 pt teaser: Pats -0.5 with Bears -0.5
Really liking that one.

 

[C-Gold]

Are you sure Hassleback is out, I actually see him listed as probable? Wahle is doubtful, and Jones is Questionable. Leroy Hill is a very good run stopping LB also hurt, but Seattle has a talented 4th LB so I didn't initally mention that.

I just see the Patriots match up really well with a team that can't pass and can't stop the pass. The Pats need this win and Seattle is way over done.

 

[C-Gold]

ADD

Steelers -3 ( 1 unit)

Marion Barber is out and I figure this line is -3.5 at Book Maker, BetCrisis, Legendz, and already juiced -123 at Pinnacle, -120 at BetUS, -125 at Logans, -125 at Bet Jamacia ant -120 at all the Vegas Casinos. I do want a play on the Steelers and I wanted to wait it out until I see the 1PM games, but there is a great chance that this line will move and I won't be able to get it -3 with so little juice. Beted still has the line -110.

I think with Felix Jones and Marion Barber out, there is little chance that Tashard Choice rushes for more than 65 yards against that Steelers D. Pittsburgh has some of their own injuries, but the downgrade from Barber to Choice is there. He had some yards against the Seagulls last week at home, but these Steelers will fight.

Tony Romo will pretty much have to win this game by himself, but he faces a Steelers D that gives up only 166 per game in the air for an average 4.7 per pass! That is sick! Matt Cassell goes from a 400 yard passing day and 48 points, to people calling him overrated and a weak 10 point game AT HOME. Romo is up against the best defense in the NFL, and won't have a run game.

Romo still probably isn't 100%, and Dallas isn't the best road team. Even with Romo earlier in the year they lost @ Arizona. The Steelers have the better record, and have had a much tougher schedule.

If Romo wins this one ( which is possible), that is hella impressive, but I'll lay the 3 points and watch you try and beat me.

 

[benny0420]

C-Lo

Nice hit on the books yesterday. What a season you had.

 

[MikeB]

Widely reported that Hasselback will not play today.

 

[C-Gold]

Senneca Wallace doesn't scare me at all. The Patriots LB's are hurt and they signed Junior Seau off the street and Rosevelt Colvin. My guess is that the books looked at the Pats injuries as well, but the Seattle O-line being injured with that short running QB doesn't bode well for the Sea Gulls.

 

[C-Gold]

I am thinking the 49ers might be the sucker bet, and good lord, Philly is -10.5 at Bet Jamacia!

 

[C-Gold]

ADD


New York Giants -4 Second Half ( 1 unit)

 

[C-Gold]

Sunday Card
Patriots -3 ( -190) 3 units
Patriots -5 ( 1 unit)
Wash/Balt under 18 first half ( 2 units)
Wash/Balt under 36 ( 2 units)
Pittsburgh -3 ( 1 unit)
Tease: Patriots/Ravens Under 42 ( 3 units)
Eagles + 7.5 ( 1 unit)
Giants 2nd half -4 ( 1 unit)

 

[C-Gold]

Pats -3 = push
Pats -5 = lost 1 unit
Pitt -3 = win 1 unit
Eagles + 7.5 = win 1 unit
Giants 2nd half = lost 1 unit
san fran + 6 = 1 unit win ( unposted)

remaining
Wash/balt under 1st half 18 ( 2 units)
wash/balt under 36 2 units
ravens under 42 teaser.... 3 units

 

[awmllc2000]

best of luck