Michigan St. -4.5
Spartan haters, back off. Much has been made about Michigan State's 35-point shellacking at the hands of North Carolina, but let's not be naive. First, the Tarheels are in a league of their own and are by far the best team in college basketball. It's not even close. Second, MSU was very banged up for that contest with Delvon Roe nursing a bad knee and Goran Suton sidelined with a bad leg of his own. UNC dominated the glass on both ends of the floor and Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson were able to muscle their way to the bucket all night long due to the lack of physicality down low for Sparty. However, Tom Izzo's squad has rejuvenated and they've won all six ball games since Suton has returned to the lineup -- including huge Top 25 road wins at No. 5 Texas and No. 21 Minnesota. So while taking a look at this game and crunching the numbers, remember not to forget that for their first two losses (UNC and Maryland, two great teams by the way), the Spartans were no where near full strength. That said, Michigan State has dominated this series and the song should remain the same today. MSU has won 18 of its last 19 games against Northwestern and the last four contests have been decided by an average of 14 points. Raymar Morgan is playing fantastic basketball and with Kalin Lucas, who's coming off a career high 24 points against Minnesota, and a healthy Suton -- the Spartans shouldn't have any problems tonight in Evanston. The Cats are slowly but surely working their way out of the Big Ten cellar, but they're going to run into a brick wall tonight. MSU has won the big road games all year long and with their superior athleticism and talent, I like them to take this one by double digits.
Spartan haters, back off. Much has been made about Michigan State's 35-point shellacking at the hands of North Carolina, but let's not be naive. First, the Tarheels are in a league of their own and are by far the best team in college basketball. It's not even close. Second, MSU was very banged up for that contest with Delvon Roe nursing a bad knee and Goran Suton sidelined with a bad leg of his own. UNC dominated the glass on both ends of the floor and Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson were able to muscle their way to the bucket all night long due to the lack of physicality down low for Sparty. However, Tom Izzo's squad has rejuvenated and they've won all six ball games since Suton has returned to the lineup -- including huge Top 25 road wins at No. 5 Texas and No. 21 Minnesota. So while taking a look at this game and crunching the numbers, remember not to forget that for their first two losses (UNC and Maryland, two great teams by the way), the Spartans were no where near full strength. That said, Michigan State has dominated this series and the song should remain the same today. MSU has won 18 of its last 19 games against Northwestern and the last four contests have been decided by an average of 14 points. Raymar Morgan is playing fantastic basketball and with Kalin Lucas, who's coming off a career high 24 points against Minnesota, and a healthy Suton -- the Spartans shouldn't have any problems tonight in Evanston. The Cats are slowly but surely working their way out of the Big Ten cellar, but they're going to run into a brick wall tonight. MSU has won the big road games all year long and with their superior athleticism and talent, I like them to take this one by double digits.
Old Dominion -5
We've had great success with the Niagaras, the Butlers and the Illinois States because truth be told, there isn't much deviation with mid-major teams. Usually, what you see is what you get. The best small market teams are well-coached, disciplined and well-rounded enough that they don't have to rely on the three-pointer to win games. All of these qualities hold true for Old Dominion with great coaching from Blaine Taylor, three players averaging 10 points and a 45 percent field goal percentage on the season. Since dropping three of their first four games, the Monarchs have won seven straight by an average of 16 points. The game that really grabbed my attention was when ODU went into Duquesne as four-point underdogs and won outright by 26. The switch flipped on last month and the Monarchs are showing no signs of slowing down. History sides with Old Dominion as well due to their impressive 6-0 all-time against the spread mark against Ga. State. And it gets better -- Old Dominion has the edge in almost every single statistical category. They score more, play better defense, shoot a higher percentage from the floor, rebound the ball better, steal the ball more and have a better assist/turnover ratio. Hm. I'll lay the chalk and roll with royalty as the Monarchs take care of business.
We've had great success with the Niagaras, the Butlers and the Illinois States because truth be told, there isn't much deviation with mid-major teams. Usually, what you see is what you get. The best small market teams are well-coached, disciplined and well-rounded enough that they don't have to rely on the three-pointer to win games. All of these qualities hold true for Old Dominion with great coaching from Blaine Taylor, three players averaging 10 points and a 45 percent field goal percentage on the season. Since dropping three of their first four games, the Monarchs have won seven straight by an average of 16 points. The game that really grabbed my attention was when ODU went into Duquesne as four-point underdogs and won outright by 26. The switch flipped on last month and the Monarchs are showing no signs of slowing down. History sides with Old Dominion as well due to their impressive 6-0 all-time against the spread mark against Ga. State. And it gets better -- Old Dominion has the edge in almost every single statistical category. They score more, play better defense, shoot a higher percentage from the floor, rebound the ball better, steal the ball more and have a better assist/turnover ratio. Hm. I'll lay the chalk and roll with royalty as the Monarchs take care of business.
