Slow morning in the office, perusing old posts and I came across a Seer quote:
"if they were strong why buy a half point exp to potentially get a push? it is either buy to +5.5 or leave as is. you should never buy pts to get a push"
I've never thought of it this way, but it got me thinking, and I find that when I do buy it is nearly always to the push or the whole number. Is this just old, sage advice that you follow and i missed somewhere along the way or is there concrete math behind this?
Forget about the "if it's a strong play why" part, and that overall buying points is always a juicy proposition... I'm mostly buying points in bball when I'm looking at a game and the line shifts before I get back to it.
As an example, if the line was -4.5 and moves to -5 on me I'm not buying down. But if it was -5 and moves to -5.5, I'm usually buying back to -5 or "playing for the push". Similar scenario for dogs (but less often.) Rarely does it come into play (which is the reason not to buy points) but that time it does it's so annoying to me to lose by the hook and knowing I was just a little late on getting the push. Buying any points in the long run is a losing proposition but my peace of mind on not being "late to the show" makes it worth it to me.
Anybody else follow this mantra?
"if they were strong why buy a half point exp to potentially get a push? it is either buy to +5.5 or leave as is. you should never buy pts to get a push"
I've never thought of it this way, but it got me thinking, and I find that when I do buy it is nearly always to the push or the whole number. Is this just old, sage advice that you follow and i missed somewhere along the way or is there concrete math behind this?
Forget about the "if it's a strong play why" part, and that overall buying points is always a juicy proposition... I'm mostly buying points in bball when I'm looking at a game and the line shifts before I get back to it.
As an example, if the line was -4.5 and moves to -5 on me I'm not buying down. But if it was -5 and moves to -5.5, I'm usually buying back to -5 or "playing for the push". Similar scenario for dogs (but less often.) Rarely does it come into play (which is the reason not to buy points) but that time it does it's so annoying to me to lose by the hook and knowing I was just a little late on getting the push. Buying any points in the long run is a losing proposition but my peace of mind on not being "late to the show" makes it worth it to me.
Anybody else follow this mantra?
