THe Wings have not been "in" or been "outplayed" in the last 6 games they've played in. Their offence is clearly in a funk. And I have no interest in them until they do. But they are conscious of it and have been addressing it the last few days they've had off. This team has the ingredients to play at a high level. No reason to play on them till they find that in their game. OTOH the Sens have been been playing well even though they are in a 5 game losing streak. I got them at +117 last night. And its moving in my direction. Not an extremely confident wager but i've been running well and this one fits in the criteria. Nothing more.
Sens have been playing well? No sure that's true old friend. Calgary was all over them the other night. Arizona just went in there and buried them in the third period. They are taking a lot of penalties and they're PP looks like shit. Mike Hoffman is out. Their 4 wins have come against Buffalo, Toronto, Columbus and Calgary and they were the second best team in at least three of those. Not saying they are going to lose here but it's Ottawa that has to look better for me to back them right now. That said, I hope you win this game because I have no vested interest.
Ok but...if you agree with me that they are in a funk...and they were to lose AGAIN tonight.....what concrete evidence happened that would make you feel they will play better tomorrow? If they played like shit for 5 or so games, and then played another like shit....wouldn't it make sense to play them when they are playing well again, instead of backing them a night later after losing again? Is it simply the revenge factor you are considering here?
Ok, I said playing well but what I meant was they were the better team in the boxscore.
[The teams in parenteses won the box score IMO. I grade the games after every night]
2015-10-14 - Senators 7, Blue Jackets 3 [Columbus Blue Jackets]
Were out played by Columbus but WON 7-3 so they did something well this night.
2015-10-15 - Senators 0, Penguins 2 [Pittsburgh Penguins]
Pens won and were the better team on the ice that night. That said they held the Pens to 2 goals at home. Not necessarily a bad thing.
2015-10-17 - Predators 4, Senators 3 [Ottawa Senators]
They out Corsi'ed the Preds 74-59 and dominated everything but the scoreboard
2015-10-22 - Devils 5, Senators 4 [Ottawa Senators]
70-53 and dominated again. Lost in OT
2015-10-24 - Coyotes 4, Senators 1 [Ottawa Senators]
68-44 on the Corsi. Controlled play throughout
[And after this one...it was the reason I was on the Sens vs. Calgary]
[FONT=gotham, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]2015-10-28 - Flames 4, Senators 5 [EVEN][/FONT]
[FONT=gotham, helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Yes they were dominated by the Flames but those numbers are skewed. Flames good Corsi numbers were accumulated AFTER they were behind in the game. IMO 80% of teams that fall behind will play better as logically they will be fighting to get back to even. When the score became tied midway thru the 3rd...who took over that game when they needed to? The Sens did. Thats who. I think you and I watched different games that night.
[/FONT]
| 2015-10-14 - Senators 7, Blue Jackets 3 | Ottawa Senators | 48 | 64 | 42.86 | 40 | 51 | 43.96 | 28 | 40 | 41.18 | 7 | 3 | 70.00 | 25.00 | 92.50 | 1.175 |
| 2015-10-15 - Senators 0, Penguins 2 | Ottawa Senators | 52 | 55 | 48.60 | 36 | 45 | 44.44 | 22 | 36 | 37.93 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 94.44 | 0.944 |
| 2015-10-17 - Predators 4, Senators 3 | Ottawa Senators | 74 | 50 | 59.68 | 53 | 35 | 60.23 | 41 | 25 | 62.12 | 3 | 3 | 50.00 | 7.32 | 88.00 | 0.953 |
| 2015-10-22 - Devils 5, Senators 4 | Ottawa Senators | 70 | 53 | 56.91 | 53 | 42 | 55.79 | 39 | 32 | 54.93 | 4 | 4 | 50.00 | 10.26 | 87.50 | 0.978 |
| 2015-10-24 - Coyotes 4, Senators 1 | Ottawa Senators | 68 | 44 | 60.71 | 55 | 34 | 61.80 | 36 | 26 | 58.06 | 1 | 4 | 20.00 | 2.78 | 84.62 | 0.874 |
| 2015-10-28 - Flames 4, Senators 5 | Ottawa Senators | 55 | 66 | 45.45 | 33 | 52 | 38.82 | 23 | 38 | 37.70 | 4 | 4 | 50.00 | 17.39 | 89.47 | 1.069 |
If you click on each and everyone of these games you will see what i'm seeing and talking about. Its not the fact the the numbers may be better in a game but WHEN the good numbers occur. You get down in a game 80% of the time your Corsi numbers will be better. You score and take the lead in a game And your Corsi number continue to improve....THATS when you know who the better team is. I'm trying to post the graph on this Ott/Calg game but I cant get it to post. BUt you can see it here. http://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20152016&game=20134
THe teams played virtually even till halfway thru this game and the Flames scored. Then scored again and continued to play "better" till Ottawa made it 2-1 and then 2-2. Then look what happens. Ottawas play improved then went up 3-2 and then 4-2. So what happens.....Calgary gets their jolt, like 80% of teams do [IMO 80%] and tie it up. From that point going forward Ottawa played better till it went to a Shootout where they were LUCKY enough to pull this one out. It could have gone either way as you know.
So..IMO....this game was pretty even on the score sheet, but the numbers say Calgary out Corsied Ottawa 66-55 so naturally they were the better team on the ice. [And they WON, which HAS to count for something]
I disagree.
Doesnt mean Ottawa will win tonight either, just means...to me....that the game within the games.....Ottawa has been winning those games of late. And Detroit has not. So tonight...i'm on the Sens. Just based on RECENT play.
